Make Your Case: Help with my Hall of Fame ballot
Sometimes I procrastinate. I'd guess most people do. In this case, though, I've procrastinated too long on something you might be interested in helping me out with, so I'm turning to you to help me sort through it.
My SBN Hall of Fame ballot is due tomorrow, and for some reason I didn't find the time to start working on it until this morning. At first glance after looking over the ballot, I've narrowed it down to three groups:
Voting Yes:
Roberto Alomar
Bert Blyleven
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
On the Fence, and could be convinced to go either way:
Andre Dawson
Barry Larkin
Fred McGriff
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Not considering:
Kevin Appier
Harold Baines
Ellis Burks
Andres Galarraga
Pat Hentgen
Mike Jackson
Eric Karros
Ray Lankford
Don Mattingly
Dave Parker
Shane Reynolds
David Segui
Alan Trammell
Robin Ventura
Todd Zeile
Now, I'm asking you to help me figure it out from here. Make your case in the comments if you think someone from my "On the Fence" list should or shouldn't be in the Hall, or if you think I've made an error in one of the other lists.
Let me make it perfectly clear: this is my ballot, not a community ballot. I'm not going to count votes or anything like that to determine who shows up on my ballot. I will, however, read all the comments in this thread and take them into consideration before making my final decision tonight.
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The four offensive on the fence guys
are all comparable to Jim Rice’s offensive production, so let ‘em in. But then Dave Parker essentially has Jim Rice’s stats, so that may not mean much.
And I will dust off my hobby horse and bitch about Albert Belle being off the ballot already.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 14, 2009 12:13 PM CST reply actions
Jim Rice being in
is absolute @$&^&#$&^*$%^$#, so let us not use his stats as a bench mark. He also ran the bases bad and wasn’t a good outfielder.
by Braunstalker on Dec 14, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
I'm glad you included that last paragraph....
…. otherwise I probably would have written a thousand word rant trying to talk you out of 2 of the names on your “voting yes” list….
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 14, 2009 12:45 PM CST reply actions
Raines and Martinez?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I have a hard time with Martinez
He is the best DH to play the game thus far, and DH is a ‘position,’ so it is hard not to let him in. If he had played sub-standard third base his entire career, he would be a no brainer in most people’s eyes.
by Braunstalker on Dec 14, 2009 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
i'm curious which two
Was it Alomar? Martinez? Because I have questions about both myself. They’re not concrete yesses, just players I’m pretty sure I’ll vote for.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 14, 2009 12:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Alomar's one of them.
But I’ll admit that I may not be objective on him.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 14, 2009 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
I totally agree with McGwire being on the ballot
It’s the hall of FAME, not the hall of Ethics. The steroid era is an important piece of MLB history, no matter how dark that piece may be, and Big Mac is a huge piece of that era. I say let them all in (Bonds, Sosa, McGwire..), and make a note of them being a suspected steroid user. After all, McGwire is #2 on the single season HR list.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Never understood this logic
You get caught cheating in one game, you get kicked out of the game. You get caught cheating for half your career, you get into the HoF. Doesn’t add up.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
Well, technically
What he did was not against the rules at the time.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
But wasn't it a rule
that you weren’t allowed to use any illegal substances? They might not have said “steroids” explicitly, and there might not have been a testing program to enforce the rule, but I seem to remember that rule being in place. I could be wrong.
It was, however, a crime.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 14, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
I disagree
I think anybody who suggests it’s not illegal is splitting hairs.
I know most people favor Pete Rose’s reinstatement. But McGwire’s roid use tarnished the integrity of the game a lot more than some side bets—despicable as they were—could have.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
He shouldn't be on the ballot.
Not because he cheated, but because he would not have been any good had he not cheated. All he did was hit home runs and I am pretty sure that current and past power numbers indicate that steroids most greatly impact those for hitters. Anyone that says that it was never proven he used steroids is just playing dumb. Andro is almost only used along with steroids and not by itself. Without steroids Mcgwire’s career most likely would have ended due to injuries before 1998. He should not be voted in because his skill was artificial and not because he used steroids. I would put bonds in and I would put clemens in because they were good enough without steroids, I just do not think McGwire was.
In regards to "all he did was hit home runs"
He also walked 1317 times and finished his career with a .394 OBP.
Power was certainly the focal point of his game, but he wasn’t an all-or-nothing slugger. His pitch selection was a very nice complement to his power.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
You are right
he did walk a bunch, but how much of that was due to teams being scared of him because of his power? Look at a player like Vlad Guererro. He hardly would be considered to have a good eye at the plate, but he has walked as many as 84 times in a season. As much as we do not want to believe canseco, much of what he has said ended up being true and he said Big Mac was using steroids all the way back in Oakland. I will even give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was “clean” up until the age of 31 (even though it is pretty much evident he was not). His stat line up to that point .252 /.369 /.523 /.892 . Now that is a bit worse than Adam Dunn’s .249 /.383 /.520 /.903 and I find it hard to believe that you would vote Adam Dunn into the hall of fame if he retired right now. I also find it hard to believe that Mcgwire would have somehow peaked at the age of 34 without the help of steroids. It is more likely that his performance probably would have been equal to the line posted above for a couple years at most, before his big body would have deteriorated. That is not even taking into account his injury history.
how many were intentional.
furthermore, how many were unintentional-intentional walks…. Without his power, he doesn’t walk .
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Jack Morris
I still hold this guy in high regard. If you look at the Tigers through the 80’s, they lost before he arrived and they lost after he left. He knew how to win, and he desperately wanted to be on the mound. He didn’t have Gooden’s fastball or Maddux’ control, he just had a barrel full of guts and never quit. And when he finally did leave the Tigers he joined the Twins and Blue Jays, and brought them both world series victories too.
He was terrible with the media, but he was reliable. You could count on him to make his scheduled start unless it rained, and when it was time for him to leave a game you could expect him to growl about it – 11 seasons with 10 or more CGs, and 490 games without missing a turn in the rotation. He didn’t give you cheap starts, he averaged 7 innings per appearance over 549 games.
Larkin
- Career OPS+ of 116, .371 OBP, had many seasons of more BB than Ks, 379 SBs (83% success rate),
- On a World Series winning team in 1990
- Exceptional defensive player – 3 Gold Gloves
- One of the best SS in his era – 9 Silver Slugger Awards
- MVP in ’95, 12 All Star Games
I think he should easily get in.
Get a ife broseph
Jack Morris
Here’s a question. I’m always reading how stats don’t tell the full story with Jack Morris because he gave up runs in games that his team had a lead so that he could eat innings.
Is that a legit argument or not?
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
It is not
And there’s an article somewhere that goes in depth into that argument, and pretty much proves it’s a load of crap.
I’m a little busy at work, but I’m going to try to find it; either I’ll be able to find it in the next few minutes, or not for a while
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Okay, Braunstalker's link has the link
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1815
And even better is this thing that that link links to:
http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/spira/pitchtoscore.htm
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Thanks!
This stuff all helps.
I tend to still support Morris being in the Hall because I think a very good career was put over the top by the ’91 WS. I definitely understand why many might disagree, but I tend to favor giving some degree of weight to particularly salient moments.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
Sometimes
The numbers don’t tell the story. He wasn’t a showhorse, and he wasn’t a racehorse, he was a workhorse. If we tried to make the numbers the story, find me a list of all the pitchers who pitched at least 3000 innings and averaged 6.95 innings or more in their career – you’d come up with a long list of hall-of-famers.
And, uh.. Bert Blyleven, probably.
Well, I did a little working with baseball-reference to try to pull some of that up
and I don’t have a paid subscription with them, so I can’t get all the details, but from what I can tell, it includes most pitching HoF’ers, e.g. Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Warren Spahn; it also includes some surefire future HoF’ers, like Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, but then it also includes lots of guys like Luis Tiant, Curt Simmons, Kenny Rogers, Mike Torrez, David Wells, Kevin Brown, Chuck Finley, Doyle Alexander (best known as the guy the Tigers traded John Smoltz for), so…yeah, doesn’t really make much of a case.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Interesting.
Did you use games started, or total games? When I use that criteria I get only 20 pitchers, 8 since WWII. I can’t see all the names, but looking at the numbers it looks like Steve Carlton, Bert Blyleven, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Jack Morris, Juan Marichal, and one other I can’t identify. But I understand what you’re saying.
My BRef-fu is pretty weak
You’d be better off talking that over with Jeff
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
There are 104 pitchers who have thrown 3000+ IP since 1901
About 80% of them meet your 7 IP/GS threshhold.
Just above Morris on the list, that is, guys who averaged more innings per start:
Doyle Alexander
Bob Friend
Jerry Koosman
Mickey Lolich
Jim Perry
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Dec 14, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
From now on, Sackman must finish all comments with a list
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
It's not phonetical in my head, no disrespect, Jeff... I didn't even realize I had been spelling it wrong all along.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
naw
you just confused him with the executive producer of “Young People F*ck1ng”, “Love, Sex and Eating the Bones” and other such lovely titles
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2009 7:54 AM CST up reply actions
And Alan Trammell should get some support
Career OPS+ of 110 as a shortstop, .352 OBP, plus-defense, ranked 69th all-time in Rally’s WAR database with 66.8, just ahead of Eddie Murray, had seven years of 5+ WAR, including 8.4 WAR in 1987.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Trammell
was a better player than Dawson, Morris, and McGriff for my money.
by Braunstalker on Dec 14, 2009 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
My suggestions
Barry Larkin and Trammell should get in. Both are very underrated middle infielders. Go over their stats again and compare them to their contemporaries. They’re well above them.
Fred McGriff is borderline but I’d personally vote him in. I can understand why others wouldn’t though. Depends if you’re a big Hall or small Hall kind of guy.
Take another look at Lee Smith. He has a lot of saves but he wasn’t a HOF-level relief pitcher. At best he was a good not great reliever who just happened to be a closer. I don’t think he’s even close to a HOFer personally.
Dawson shouldn’t be in. Just look at that OBP. His career rate stats are closer to Corey Hart than a HOFer.
The rest of your yes and nos look good to me.
Ok, based on conversation so far:
I’m sold on Larkin. Moved him into the “Yes” column. I bumped Lee Smith off my ballot.
At the moment the top “on the fence” guy in my mind is McGriff. I remember him as being good but I’m just not sold on his greatness.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Thank you for moving Lee Smith off your list
Product of the save stat
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 14, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions
I saw him pitch. A lot.
I never saw Walter Johnson pitch though.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 14, 2009 8:40 PM CST up reply actions
No Mattingly?
.307 career BA, six-time All-Star, One-time AL MVP, Nine-time Gold Glover and Three-time Silver Slugger.
Granted, his career was on a little on the short side, but at the very least, shouldn’t he be considered “on-the-fence”?
He had a pretty amazing run from ages 23-28 but after that really stoped being an elite player.
Get a ife broseph
Mattingly was kinda injury prone later in his career. Bad back iirc.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Dec 14, 2009 5:35 PM CST up reply actions
True, however
He and Kirby Puckett have very similar careers that way. Both played about 12 core years, were great hitters with some power years, GG fielders. The three differences – Kirby had some speed in his thin years but Don had excellent plate discipline; Kirby’s career was cut short while he was still putting up strong numbers and Don’s best output was in his first five; and they played in two different sized media markets.
That, and Puckett played in the greatest world series I ever saw.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1991_WS.shtml
IMO, cheaters are not HOFers
so no McGwire. I’d say yes for Dawson and Larkin. I’m on the fence with Martinez and McGriff, but lean towards yes with McGriff.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
I agree with all of your Yes(s)
And I’m here to make a case for Larkin. The average HOF SS’s offensive career numbers v. Larkin’s career numbers:
Stat Ave Larkin
BA .285 .295
OBP .355 .371
SLG .399 .444
H 2335 2340
HR 113 198
RBI 1060 960
Runs 1227 1329
SB 267 329
Larkin is only lacking in RBI. 11 earned AS appearances (I wouldn’t count the 2004 appearance since that was just a farewell tour). Before this era of offensive SS, he and cal were the offensive SS. He still won 3 Gold Gloves (though that has about as much to do with defensive rankings as hat size). Larkin was the standard when it came to grading SS in the 90s, and was THE premier guy in the NL. I say he’s a no brainer.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I know I'm making a lot of extra work, but how much do those averages change if Rizzuto isn't included?
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
no trouble at all
AVG OBP SLG OPS H HR RBI RUNS SB
0.286 0.355 0.401 0.756 2371 116 1084 1244 273
Above is the Ave SS sans Rizzuto.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I just emailed you the spreadsheet I was working with.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
McGriff on the fence???
…that’s a crime, dog.
He is the career Major League leader in HR/BF (home runs per percent body fat). That’s gotta count for something.
www.inbetweenhops.com
Fielder is definately headed for the Hall, then
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 14, 2009 8:43 PM CST up reply actions
ummmmm....
more body fat = worse ratio
McGriff isn’t the skinniest guy, but he’s on the smaller end of things
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2009 7:57 AM CST up reply actions
Err... oh yeah
McGriff is uh… before my time… Yeah, I’m dumb. Just ignore me.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 15, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
yeah
i had to look up photos to confirm my impressions
by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 15, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions
Tom Emanski agrees
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
More for Larkin
I remember Bill James had a Kelter System for determining if a player belonged in the Hall. Here’s my rundown for Larkin:
Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
Probably in his MVP year, though Frank Thomas was raking at that time.
Was he the best player on his team?
Though Eric Davis was pretty phenomenal during his time with the Reds, you easily say Larkin was the best player on the Reds in the 90s
Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Not so much in baseball, as I have to give that nod to Cal, but he was definitely the best player in the NL during his tenure.
Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
not so much a number, but he did make the post season twice, being a contributor to the World Championship team of ’91 and leading the team to the playoffs in ’95.
Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
He put up an OPS+ over 100 from age 24 to 36, including a 134 at age 34. He was good well into his 30s
Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No
Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
3 of his most comparable players (Cronin, Reece, and Sandberg) are already in, Alomar and Jeter are locks, and both Trammell and Whitiker should be getting more consideration. The other 3 are Edgar Rentaria, Ray Durham, and Jay Bell, all of which were excellent players.
Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Baseball Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor has him above the average HOF-er. Since Larkin’s most comparable player is Allen Trammell, I can infer that his JAWS score will be similar as well, probably a little higher. Trammell has a 75, which is an average HOF-er.
Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
couldn’t tell you, not smart enough
Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
Though you could make a case for Trammell, I’d say yes.
How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
He won 1 in ’95, finished 7th in ’90, and received votes 4 other times in his career.
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?
he went to 12 AS games (11 earned, see previous comment), he won 9 Silver slugger awards, and 3 gold gloves. As for the last part, I would think so.
If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
He had the best OPS+ on the 91 championship team, so the answer there is yes.
What impact did the player have on baseball history? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
not really.
Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
I have never heard a bad word spoken about his charecter, and everything I read tells me he’s a pretty great guy.
I hope this helps.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I think you may have convinced me Larkin is more deserving than Trammell.
Maybe my memory of Trammell’s (and Whitaker’s for that matter) defense is overblown. I thought Larkin was a good SS, and Trammell was Ozzie Smithian.
by Braunstalker on Dec 15, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
when you compare trammell to HOF SSs, he does come in favorably
the problem with Trammell is two-fold. First, he played in Cal’s world at the same time as Cal. This alone makes him not the best player at his position of his time. Secondly, his productivity was sapped by injuries late in his career. Those late years really define if a guy is a HOF or not, and he only had 2 great seasons in his 30s. He should be in eventually be in, I just didn’t put him on my immaginary ballot (see fan post)
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Yeah I am absolutely with you on Larkin.
To me he is more of a yes than Blyleven, Alomar and Martinez. Though I would probably have Alomar and Martinez on my ballot as well.






























