Thursday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while trying not to dance.
LaTroy Hawkins was in Milwaukee yesterday for his physical, making his deal official (FanShot). As mentioned previously, he's due $3.5 million in 2010 and $4 million in 2011, plus $550k available if he maximizes his incentives. One thing I didn't know until reading it afterwards: Hawkins grew up in Gary, Indiana and played basketball against former Buck Glenn Robinson.
I've mentioned previously that the bullpen situation is starting to fill up, but realized yesterday that I've been leaving Carlos Villanueva out of all of my projections. As Adam McCalvy noted in his story on Hawkins, the bullpen now has Trevor Hoffman, Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske, and barring a trade or injury, it looks like Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Chuck Lofgren and Zack Braddock, among others, are on the outside looking in.
While there may not be much competition for a spot in the bullpen, there will be an interesting race to see who opens the season as the backup catcher. View From Bernie's Chalet handicaps the candidates, and is hoping for George Kottoras to open the season in the majors, with Jonathan Lucroy in AAA and Angel Salome on the trading block. Two quick thoughts on that:
- Kottoras is out of options, so unless one of the prospects blows him out of the water this spring, he'll likely make the team.
- You can never have too many catchers, so don't be surprised if the Brewers hang onto both Lucroy and Salome and try to work out some kind of rotation in Nashville.
Speaking of competitions involving backup catchers, we need your vote to help select a backup catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. As of this writing, Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 15 votes.
At Mike Cameron's press conference in Boston yesterday, we heard some insight for the first time into Ken Macha's feeling toward the running game last season. 2009 was the first time in Cameron's career he's had single-digit stolen bases, and he said he "ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran." Macha has admitted he'll have to open up the running game a little more this season, but this is the first time I can recall hearing a player talk about restraints last season.
Every now and then the Mug provides me an "Ask and you shall receive" moment. Yesterday I asked about differences in attendance at Miller Park based on the starting pitcher, and Wisconsin Sports Tap did the research, discovering no correlation. Many, if not most, Brewer tickets are probably purchased too far in advance to predict starting pitching assignments, so that's likely what I should have expected.
In the minors: FanGraphs unveiled their Top Ten Brewer Prospects yesterday. Alcides Escobar sits atop the list, as he likely will in just about every set of rankings coming out this winter, but Brett Lawrie climbed in front of Mat Gamel for the #2 spot. We'll be doing our Community Prospect Rankings in January, and I'm curious to see where Lawrie will rank there.
Around baseball:
D-Backs: Signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Jamey Carroll to a two year deal worth $3.85 million and signed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and third baseman Garrett Atkins to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed pitcher Geoff Geary and infielder Ray Olmedo to minor league deals.
Tigers: Re-signed infielder Ramon Santiago to a two year deal.
The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners and A's also finalized their four way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. It's been a time for change in Toronto over the last few months: Jordan Bastian noted that the Rogers Centre features three-story images of Alex Rios, Scott Rolen, B.J. Ryan and Roy Halladay. All four will now need to be removed.
In the interest of keeping conversation going and providing fresh content on the site each day, I occasionally post things that wouldn't be front page-worthy during the season, but keep things lively in December. Occasionally when I do that, someone stops by the comments to make sure I know I'm wasting their time, or ask why we're voting for bench players on the All Decade Team. Yes, I know those posts aren't hard-hitting news, but they beat spending a day ranking and discussing your favorite Pixar movies, like Keith Law and Rob Neyer did yesterday.
Earlier this week he celebrated a birthday, and today former Brewer Matt Kinney is the subject of Lookout Landing's Faces series.
Happy birthday today to 1986 and 1989 Brewer Bryan Clutterbuck, who turns 50.
Drink up.
0 recs |
70 comments
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Comments
The attendence vs. starting pitcher correlation.
I think the fact that the brewers, while not a great or even good team, were in contention. I think the study would be more effective if you took a look at a less successful team. I live in DC so I go to nats games occassionally. I would be interested to see the variations of attendence between Lannan and non Lannan weekday starts.
by levnclf on Dec 17, 2009 9:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Fail.
Read first sentence as, “I think the fact that the brewers, while not a great or even good team, were in contention may have skewed the results some.”
by levnclf on Dec 17, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
success and overall attendance may be correllated, but it's not always the case.
I bet the Marlins would have the biggest discrepancy between Josh Johnson and their other starters, than any other team.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's the other thing
I can see there being a big difference in a place like Florida or Tampa, where there’s always tens of thousands of extra seats available.
In Milwaukee, on the other hand, they’re consistently drawing 30-35,000, so even if the fans really are excited about a particular game or pitcher, the attendance bump might only be 3-5000.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Man, I think they need some microeconomist to look at the elasticity of seats adjusted for the players!
Would be fun to see that.
Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge
by Bush League All Star on Dec 17, 2009 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It would probably have to be an Applied Econometrician/Microeconomist
All those non-applied folks don’t like numbers when they could be using perfectly good variables. But UW-Madison has a good Applied Econ program (just applied), so if I get in there, I’ll see about making that my thesis, mmmkay?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Dec 17, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I could write you a letter of rec
I like to think that being an alum get’s me some perks. Then again, I don’t contribute at the $5k+ level, so maybe it doesn’t mean squat.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 8:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm an alum and I can tell you they really could give a crap what I think about anything.
I remind them of that fact when they call and ask me for money. Public sector work makes it difficult to donate, which makes a rec from the likes of me pretty much meaningless, a fact they never mention when discussing the Wisconsin Idea. :)
Yet they never seem to lose my phone #….
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 18, 2009 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW...
… in 92, the Brewers were the best team in baseball after the all-star break and they drew very poorly in September while they tried to run the eventual champion Blue Jays to earth. We were properly ripped in the press for it too.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 18, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rogers Centre images
Leave ’em up as a warning.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 9:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
haha
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 9:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cam's comments.
I found these rather interesting — Thanks to Mr. Snow for including them.
I generally hate base-stealing, however I do realize that there are times when you can take an extra base, or game situations may require a roll of the bones.
Putting restraints on a guy like Cameron indicates to me Macha doesn’t have a good idea how to manage this team. I certainly understand giving guys like Braun and Hart red lights, as they do not exercise the best judgment sometimes in when to steal a base. Cameron on the other hand, has shown to be successful over the course of his career, and his stats indicate to me, he has done a good job picking his spots. It’s a shame Macha decided to institute some sort of blanket policy. What a knob.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 17, 2009 9:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Braun seems like an okay basestealer
he’s not the fastest guy, but is over 75% for his career (not by much, though). i think that was macha’s “break-even point” on stealing bases.
but yes, there’s a difference between giving players red lights in certain situations and giving them red lights in certain seasons. also, certain districts, but that would make them a “burner” off the field instead of on, and that might be a bit off topic.
by Capt Science on Dec 17, 2009 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing is,
the offense was good enough that stealing bases wasn’t really necessary. Now if next year Gomez and Escobar have less than 20 steals each, there may be a problem.
It is what it is.
by coolig on Dec 17, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It may not be necessary
to steal bases to score a lot of runs, but the restraint Macha had on the running game made it worse. We were not a really good base stealing team in recent years under Yost but at least he let guys run if they were good. Our basestealing took a huge step back. Our CS% went way up under Macha like guys who could steal bases were not as effective.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
by cooper82 on Dec 17, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd understand it when he's batting #2.
But when he was #5, without Braun and Prince backing him up, let him go.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 10:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
The odds of a #5 hitter coming around to score with the 2009 versions of Hart, Hardy, Kendall and the pitcher’s spot behind him were really low.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Macha should have known, that Cameron knows way more about MLB than Macha ever will, and would have trusted Cam to effectively pick his spots.
I can certainly understand Macha wanting to hold the reins a little more with guys like Hart and Braun, who sometimes steal at bizarre times.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 17, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Cameron knows way more about MLB than Macha ever will"
Wow, that’s a pretty big statement. Not necessarily disagreeing with it, but still it says alot.
As far as base stealing, not sure if it would’ve made much difference in many games last season, but I think it is a valuable strategy… particularly late in the game with a close score.
If nothing else, I think that quote shows how professional Cameron was last season. He could have easily called out Macha and complained about the lack of stolen bases, but he didn’t.
by sjlee on Dec 17, 2009 2:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he would have done the franchise a favor if he did.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm the opposite
I love base-stealing. I love everything about base-stealing, except the getting caught part, of course. I love the chutzpah involved - really, a stolen base is like a slap in the face to the pitcher. I like how a fast runner or first changes the way the defense has to play, or even how a scrawny fast guy with good bat control can hit as many “doubles” with a drag bunt and a stolen base as big lumbering first baseman can mashing the ball off the fence.
Having said all that, I hate people trying to steal home. Plus, no one does the delayed steal anymore.
Cameron’s career percentage is over 78%, but over the last 4 seasons, it’s a smidge over 75%. As a Brewer he’s right at 75%.
As for Macha…I haven’t decided, but I sure thought he’d be more genius-er.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Dec 17, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dont get me wrong
I think the stolen base is an exciting play — I just don’t like it in a stratagery sense.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 17, 2009 11:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
How so? Do you mean in a runners-getting-thrown-out-with-Prince-Fielder-at-bat kind of way? Or something else entirely?
I’d love to see a team made up of players made up of guys with all speed and no power, but who can get on base at a .350-.360 clip. I have no idea how that team would do offensively, but I think I’d hate to face a team like that.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Dec 17, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't a fan of the Treblehorn era.
Where EVERYONE on the team was running. Like the bunt, the SB has its place, and there are certainly players that can execute the SB more effectively than others, but for the most part, I am more of an Earl Weaver, station to station guy.
I don’t think guys with no power would OBP at a .350.
I would take a team of guys with All power and no speed and drink your milkshake.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 17, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not very common, but it happens…
Counsell (‘01, ’09) and Kendall (’96, ’02, ’04, ’06) both had multiple 400+ AB seasons with OBP .350 (or more) and had less than 5 HRs. Others include Phil Rizzuto, Billy Hamilton and Wade Boggs.
by sjlee on Dec 17, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tom Herr
The last guy to have 100+ RBI with fewer than 10 HR.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 5:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember seeing that season on the back my baseball cards
And being blown away. For some reason, an eight-homer, 110-RBI season just blew my eight-year-old mind.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 17, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another anomaly for Herr
He had 102 RBIS more than HRS. Not many guys exceed their HR total by 100 RBIS
by statsllc on Dec 17, 2009 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked those teams.
They weren’t all that good usually, but they were fun to watch. One of the more entertaining things to watch in baseball, in my opinion, is a pitcher melting down because he knows the guy on 1st is going to run and he doesn’t know how to stop him.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 18, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I recall seeing more in-depth analysis that concluded the stolen base isn’t a good idea, but I never understood why anyone would be against it.
Even if Fielder is at the plate, he’s going to hit a single/double much more often than he hits a homerun. Going from first to second in that situation would seem to score runs a lot more than waiting for a homerun at first. It only becomes a bad idea if terrible base sealers are running like crazy and getting thrown out above some threshold. I may be just thinking too simplistically though.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Dec 17, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I probably have no concept, but I like when runners steal with 2 out and good hitters up
Even if the runner is thrown out, you still lead off the next inning with a good hitter.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But that threshold changes from batter to batter.
It makes sense to run with Kendall at the plate because the downside is low. He’s not going to drive in a runner on first anyway. If a runner gets thrown out, it’s not a major loss.
But if Fielder is at the plate and that guy gets thrown out, that’s a guy that would have scored a significant amount of the time if he had just taken a safe lead and waited for someone to happen.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 17, 2009 5:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it's a major loss if there's 2 outs already.
:)
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 18, 2009 12:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
part of it is nontangible
It changes a defense quite a bit (physically and mentally) when a player is a threat to steal.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 18, 2009 12:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
But with the constant threat of a SB, there’s a better chance the pitcher will get distracted. Just ask Manny Parra.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 17, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think so.
This seems to me to be something people say without really having any evidence to back it up. I just don’t think “pitcher distraction” is a tangible thing.
Parra was distracted by the hitters, and line drives up the middle, moreso than some guy dancing around at 1b.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 17, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember when Parra was pitching with a runner on
he seemed to give up a lot more hits. He paid a lot of attention to the runner and he made a lot of mistakes. But I’m sure something like this varies from pitcher to pitcher.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 17, 2009 2:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought those were infield hits
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 17, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
12 or 13 man pitching staff?
If they go with a bench of Kottaras, Craiggers, McGehee and Gerut the team has flexibility to cover most in game substitution needs, which gives you one more arm in the pen. I think they go with 13 pitchers is to squeeze Lofgren onto the 25 man.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 17, 2009 10:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
McGehee's not going to be on the bench
At least not to begin the season. Perhaps Gamel will end up taking over, but there’s no way they don’t break camp without Casey as the starting 3B
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
by Lefti on Dec 17, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather have another backup OF.
If one guy gets hurt, you have absolutely no backup. Somebody’s bound to miss a week due to an intercostal strain.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would imagine in that case
Lofgren would have a fluke injury that required a 15 day trip to the DL.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 17, 2009 10:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what if an injury happens in game, though.
your hands become pretty tied.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tell McGehee or Counsell good luck
Make a roster move after the game.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The other thing is pinch hitters.
There’s gonig to be games where you use up all of your pinch hitters.
I just don’t see any reason that we have to free up a spot for one of Lofgren, Narveson, Axford, Butler… Lofgren is the only one who must be on the roster, but we can always try to sell him back or cut him. I just don’t see any of those guys blowing us away so much that our hand is forced to put them on the 25-man roster.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I agree it's probably not going to be an issue
Eduardo Morlan caused some roster hijink rumors last December and that didn’t come to pass.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget that sometimes a trade is worked out
where the Brewers would send a minor leaguer to…eh…whatever club they got Lofgren from.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Clarification
that allows them to keep Lofgren, albeit in the minors and not on the 25-man.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The very same reason why you never use your backup catcher
which I thought we all agreed was a pretty ridiculous argument. You take the risk to keep Lofgren in the organization. At worst you lose one game for the chance at a lefty with plus stuff.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 17, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There seems even less reason to worry about the OF than at catcher
Even if you need to put a career infielder out there, he’ll have maybe two or three chances to misplay a ball.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Then you want him for pinch hitter reasons.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for fixing the 40-man roster, whoever did that
Try as I might, I couldn’t get the format correctly.
Our bullpen is looking pretty intimidating. I mean, we’re primed to have some underachieving there, but it looks pretty darn good on paper.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Dec 17, 2009 10:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how the numbers work out.
How much benefit is there to having a slightly below league average starting rotation, but a top notch bullpen? There has to be a a psychological advantage to having the lead with a shut down 7th-9th inning. When the Cubs had Marmol on his hot streak as set-up man, I know I had it in the back of my mind every game. It also allows the hitters to have some confidence to come from behind in a close game.
See how I’m rationalizing this? Drinkin’ the Kool Aid, boys, drinkin’ the Kool Aid.
by ecocd on Dec 17, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I concur
You’d think Villanueva will be in for a correction after last year, although you can’t ignore the fact that Coffey may be, as well. Hoffman likely will regress back to career norms a bit (but that’s not all that much anyway), and Stetter will just be stetter. Riske is sort of the wild card. Hopefully he doesn’t continue to be a brightly polished turd on the mound for us.
Then again, yourkenk would probably tell you he was injured, and as long as he’s healthy 2007 will come again in 2010.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 2:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Villanueva a shoe-in?
He sucks.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
by stigmo on Dec 17, 2009 12:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
He can't be on the roster
we already let him go him to the Pistons.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought he just shaved his head
and then I saw some human-interest-y FSN thing on how he actually has some disease or genetic mutation that doesn’t allow him to grow any hair whatsoever. Its true. Take a look at his eyebrows. They aren’t there.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 2:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Alopecia
He’s pretty involved with relevant charities.
by TheJay on Dec 17, 2009 5:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's it
it was a good piece, and it made me like him better, for some reason.
A+ journalism, FSN!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2009 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say he sucks
He’s like the JJ Hardy of the ‘pen. There were stretches last season where he was dominant, and there are times where he’s awful. Overall though, he’s usually pretty affective.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 17, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you back that up?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Dec 17, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Clearly that comment stands on its own merits
and needs no evidence. You’re just proving yourself a whiner by asking for things like “facts.” That’s really always been your problem on these boards, Jordan. You’re always citing “data” to “back up” your “arguments.” You need to watch more Colbert Report, my friend.
by ecocd on Dec 17, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Posting from Wisconsin Sports Tap
Lange was nice enough to put the dataset up on his article up on my request and I took a further look. My follow-up comment:
FYI, I did the quick-and-dirty GLM modeling and it’s not surprising that the weekday vs. weekend factor and Bobble head factors are the only notable factors. Actually, Parra comes out as being weakly significant as having a negative effect on attendance, but that’s likely linked to him pitching only 3 weekend games and random chance.
It’s worth noting that the Doug Melvin Bobblehead day drew only 30,000 on Sunday, Sept 20 with Gallardo pitching and messed up all of the Bobblehead numbers so I had to remove it as a Bobblehead day. Sept 13th game drew a paltry 21,453 with Villenueva pitching so we can’t say Doug Melvin drove people away. ;-)
Thanks again for the data!
by ecocd on Dec 17, 2009 2:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Without running the numbers
Gallardo seemed to pitch a lot of day games, possibly lessening his attendance figures.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 17, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's primarily a sample size issue at this point
There might be evidence for some pitcher effect, but it’s lost in all of the other factors. I didn’t have day game vs. night-game data points. It’s hard to say how much affect it would have, though. Many, if not all Sunday games were day games, right? There are only a few weekday day games so I think it would be difficult for any statistical measure to separate out a day-game effect, but I’ve been surprised before.
by ecocd on Dec 17, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs


















