Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 2, 2009 9:18 AM CST
in News
67 comments
Some things to read while raising your expectations.
Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).
Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:
- Felipe Lopez, 88%
- Mike Cameron, 48%
- Braden Looper, 7%
- Jason Kendall, 3%
- David Weathers, 3%
So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.
Here's some more reaction from around the web:
- SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
- The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
- View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
- In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.
If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.
After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.
Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.
In the minors:
- Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
- The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.
Around baseball:
Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.
With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.
At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.
Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.
There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)
Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.
No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.
Drink up.
0 recs |
67 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
So, someone compare/contrast the Hoffman and the Wagner deals for me, please.
by Mykenk on Dec 2, 2009 9:24 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Hoffman's deal is better
Hoffman’s deal is for slightly more money but he didn’t cost a high draft pick and he has a better style of option(mutual vs vesting).
How so.
Because it means they’ll let Gonzalez and Soriano go?
Wagner was a type A FA, so they have to give up a draft pick there.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Were they more likely to accept arbitration if Wagner wasn't signed?
I don’t know if it matters much in their decision. I think both would have tried to get multi-year deals regardless.
Get a ife broseph
exactly
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Wagner will likely be a ranked FA after his time with Atlanta is over
and if he decides to pitch, the Braves also get that pick.
Plus, he’s younger than Hoffman, throws harder, and has more than one pitch.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 2, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
The deals are similar
Though having to give up the 19th overall pick would push the advantage to the Hoffman signing.
I don’t think anyone believes that Hoffman will have the same amount of success as last year, its just a question of how much he falls off.
Wagner is a better pitcher, but there is quite a bit of health risk. If he gets hurt again you’ve cost yourself $7M and a first round pick without getting anything in return.
Get a ife broseph
Well, as old as Wagner is, he's still 4 years younger than Hoffman
who started on the DL last year, and he is 42 years old.
You’re right about Wagner’s health, of course, but he was absolutely dominant with the Red Sox down the stretch last year.
I like a guy with a career 11.79 K/9 and an average fastball velocity of 94.1 in the back end of my bullpen. Particularly if he throws left handed.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 2, 2009 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah it was odd
I thought I remembered hearing he was going to retire, but maybe that was if the Mets picked up the option or something?
Can’t remember.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 2, 2009 5:55 PM CST up reply actions
No I think it was one of those rumors started by idiot journalists.
IIRC both Wagner and his Agent denied any thoughts of retirement.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
That's possible, too.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 2, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions
I thought you were trying to say that they're hunting.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
that always frustrated me
I hated that guy
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
He was such a bandwagon-jumper.
“Ooh, you shot a bird! Good for you! Look, I’ll hold it up so you can admire your prize!”
But then, as soon as I miss: he laughs in my face. Stupid, fickle dog.
Worst... Dog... Ever
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 2, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
that dog has nothing on this dog
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Dec 2, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
My Friend
Who’s an Indian fan told me about the Shoppach trade… I told him to hope for Carl Crawford…. I was just kidding of course….
Goooooo-mez!
Impact player
What exactly is the definition of an impact player? Obviously Braun and Fielder qualify for that title, but who else? Was JJ Hardy considered an imoact player when he was in the minors?
Looking over Prospects Paradise’s rundown of our system, there doesn’t seem to be that many Brauns or Fielders there, but still a bunch of fairly solid players. It looks like we’re trending towards being the Twins: one great player and a bunch of solid, yet unspectacular players. Anyone think that might be the case?
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
I think that's exactly the case
the only real shot at an impact guy (IN MY OPINION ONLY) is Lawrie. It’s too early to tell on Ackley or Davis, but the rest of the system does not have what looks to be too many above average players. The
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
baseball chronicle had 20-80 ratings on a number of dimensions on their site
with lawrie getting solid, but unspectacular 55’s. they didn’t have column headers, though, so i couldn’t see what they were rating… is anyone else familiar with that site and how they order things there?
by Capt Science on Dec 2, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
nevermind, i found it
so lawrie rated as follows:
batting – 60
power – 65
speed – 55
field/ arm – 55
discipline – 65
by Capt Science on Dec 2, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
But is it really a bad thing to be the Twins?
The few pitching prospects we have look like that would all be at least average-ish, maybe even slightly about average, much like the Twins. I know this topic has been covered numerous times here, but I certainly wouldn’t mind being the Twins.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 2, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Nope
The Twins recipe is pretty simple, put together an 80-85 win team every year and you can get to the playoffs by:
1. Overplay your potential by 7-10 games and win division
2. Yankees/Red Sox underplay potential by 5-7 games and win wildcard
3. Play to your potential, have rest of division suck and win division
You are almost always contending in September and in the playoffs 2 out of every 5 years, which keeps eyeballs on the TV and gets fans out to the stadium.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 2, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
yay. I got a mug link
Be cool, and relax. Take a breath, take ten paces back.
The coolest motherfunker on the planet.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Dec 2, 2009 12:29 PM CST reply actions
Can people remind me what pitching we're chasing?
I know the pitching was worse than pitiful last year, but what starting pitching are the Brewers chasing? Randy Wolfe isn’t exactly a franchise changer, but they’re passing on Cameron, Lopez and whatever catcher might be on the market for him? It seems like there’s a lot of downgrading going on in the field for nothing all that impressive on the mound.
As a serious questions to the BCB’ers, what might Melvin actually have in mind?
My guess
Melvin goes after Wolf and Davis. Then he goes and signs Mulder and maybe one other injury-risk like him
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 2, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
i think that's aggressive
he’s said something along the lines of having to take chances with pitchers who have come off injury, etc… so i think that was widely interpreted as meaning bedard, harden, and sheets (maybe). in reality, i think it’s halama, mulder, and someone else you’re not expecting/ considering.
then he’ll realize he still has some gaps in the rotation and go after a davis or someone who hasn’t signed in late january. but then, i’m a pessimist and a hater.
I don't think he's penciling Halama into the rotation yet
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 2, 2009 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
I think Halama is a depth only move. Since he’s on a minor league contract, he probably won’t even make the 25 man roster until somebody gets hurt. Even if he deserves it or a bullpen spot.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Watch out for Randy Wolf, the BABIP mastah!
careful what you wish for.
I’m sure not in a hurry to sign a guy to a long term, over-priced deal just because he had a good ERA.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 2, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
If he could afford that
I don’t think I’d vomit if they’d be trotting out Wolf and Davis. Not happy, mind you, but it’s enough to prevent me from thinking the Brewers will be lining up for 2 automatic losses every 5 games.
Doing some traveling...
Going up in a balloon like that would make my decade. What a romantic way to propose too.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
New BCB featue: Face-palm counter?
Right there on the front page, smiling…oh, beautiful.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
the bottom line
“So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other.”
The big difference is that the people of the site don’t have to live with the results, nor know what kind of financial packages are in play.
It is easy to say that you would roll the dice on offering whomever, but none of us don’t have to live with the result if Lopez calls their bluff and it prevents them from achieving financial stability.
In a perfect world, yes, it would be nice to offer arbitration to Cameron and Lopez, as I do think both would have declined, but that is the peril of being a small-market club. Every move has ramifications.
It is the same reason that I feel that the Hardy deal was made…they gave up more value, but it allowed them to save money. It sucks, that welcome to life as a Brewer fan.
by badgermaniac on Dec 2, 2009 9:14 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Wait, so you're Doug Melvin?
We’re a small market club wah. We can only take risks on long term contracts to crappy pitchers wah Where’s my money.
The fact that Doug Melvin made an idiotic signing four years ago doesn’t make what badgermaniac is saying any less true. Milwaukee is a small market and always has been, that’s just how it is.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
hahaha
So I think we’ve argued this enough… Maybe we should agree to disagree, and see how the rest of the offseason plays out.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
We have, on the other hand, have had to live with the Suppan deal, for example.
I get your point, but I can’t believe that 5 million was an unacceptable risk when everyone, and particularly Melvin, acknowledges that this club has to maximize every resource they have? Does that just mean money? Because to me, taking a risk to add a compensatory pick makes a lot of sense, particularly when the “down side” is a switch hitting second baseman who’s likely to be marketable in a trade. You’re right that every move has ramifications, but you can’t play scared. You still have to have the guts to take risks and make the right call.
By the way, now that we’ve given up Lopez and got nothing in exchange, the Brewers are now in the market for…… middle infield depth.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2009 10:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder
If another team had declined arbitration for Lopez, would we be asking Boras about him? Of course, he’d want a multi-year deal…
Not offering Lopez arbitration gets stupider with each passing second.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
The big difference is that the people of the site don’t have to live with the results, nor know what kind of financial packages are in play.
Actually, as someone who writes about this team every day, I am pretty invested in how things turn out.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
And as someone who checks the Brewers feed and this site 10 times a day… Plus who owns enough Brewer’s merchandise to cover two walls in the rec room around the bar… and who wears Brewer’s jerseys/t-shirts everyday in the heart of Cub-land/downtown Shitcago everyday…
Yeah I am invested.
DM has no idea what it is like to work in a hostile work environment surrounded by Cubs fans on a daily basis. So yeah – I am invested very heavily.
by Saberilliterate on Dec 3, 2009 6:59 AM CST up reply actions
I think he means, you are not in danger of getting fired for mishandling millions of dollars of Mark A’s money.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Dec 3, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
Well if we're mishandling money there are 5 or so things I could point out that are worse than offering arby to Lopez and Cameron
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Unrelated
but the Badgers just beat Duke.
Awesome.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
Led the whole game too.
Though they did go through the standard late game 4 minute field goal drought.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 2, 2009 10:34 PM CST up reply actions
Yep, I was biting my nails
Very impressive game, on the whole, though.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 2, 2009 10:45 PM CST up reply actions
It was awesome
I was there, and on many of Duke’s second half shots closed my eyes and hoped for a big cheer. Phew.
You've got a couple screws missin' up in your toolbox, if you think that you'll stop this man from hittin' moonshots.
Count me among the group that doesn't understand the outrage
Knowing what I know, do I think Melvin should have offered Lopez? Sure. But I think people here are seriously overvaluing the missed sandwich pick. According to an article on Hardball Times (Valuing the Draft: Part 1.. I think), the average return is something like $2.6 mil on a sandwich pick. Even if the true number is closer to $4-$5 mil, this is hardly something to get worked up about. And Melvin might know something that suggests Lopez has a greater chance at accepting arby than even knowledgable fans realize. Since Lopez would be a backup player, he would have little chance to be worth his salary.
In the end, not a big deal.
by rluzinski on Dec 3, 2009 8:22 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Money is money
If Melvin thought there was a moderate chance Lopez would accept (and he obviously did), he would have to had to project Lopez as a backup, provided he couldn’t trade him (and again, he must have considered that). Lopez would obviously be being paid as a starter, however. Money lost. But fans always find the prospect of overspending more palatable than the people who actually own the money (Mark A. and company, who are probably playing a far greater role in all this than some think).
But really, my main point is, even if this was a mistake, it was a minor one. As I believe you pointed out in another thread, the average value of a sandwich pick is low. So, this move may have cost the Brewers $3 mil (which is apparently insignifacant, since few care if Lopez is overpaid by that in a backup role). In contrast, the Suppan signing cost the Brewers around $36 mil!
by rluzinski on Dec 3, 2009 9:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Worst case scenario
The team could cut Lopez in spring training and owe him 30% of the arby amount, which would have been less than the $3 million value put on a sandwich pick. Does it make any sense for a GM to complain about poor he is and then not pay $2mil to get $3mil.
Math, not on the Brewer’s side since 2008 and counting.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 3, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions
When it's not his money to invest, sure
That’s a $2 mil investment now vs. an average expected return of $3 mil over the next 8-9 years. Now, the real risk is significantly less than that (which is why it was probaably a bad decision) but the reasoning remains. This may be more of an example of a the negative consequence of a “win now” mentality than anything else and the ownership group might be more to blame than Melvin. Who knows?
by rluzinski on Dec 3, 2009 10:03 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Its obviously wasn't that simple
Unless you think you just came up with a brilliant strategy that Brewer management didn’t think of.
I can’t stress enough that I am currently mildly unhappy with the move. I just suspect that our estimate of the risk involved with offering Lopez arby is too low. If there really was near-zero risk, Melvin would have offered arby. So we can presume two different things:
1. Melvin is stupid.
2. Melvin has information that we don’t.
Of course, if Lopez quickly signs a 2-3 year deal averaging $8 per, it probably means that, whatever information Melvin had, it led him to overestimating the risk of offering arby. Time will tell.
by rluzinski on Dec 3, 2009 10:57 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Brew Crew Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
