Monday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 28, 2009 9:18 AM CST
in News
42 comments
Some things to read while setting the record straight.
With the roster probably nearly set for 2010, I guess it's time to start looking at lineups. Brewers Daily has a look at one issue the Brewers might face: Is Casey McGehee (or for that matter, virtually anyone the 2009 Brewers could hit in the #5 slot) enough of a threat to force teams to pitch to Prince Fielder? Fielder became the first Brewer ever to draw 100 walks last season. Expect that total to go up in 2010.
With three years of reliable Pitch F/x data now available, Dan Turkenkopf of Beyond the Box Score is taking a shot at projecting catcher block percentage for 2010. He ranks Gregg Zaun fifth among projected catchers at 3.93 runs above average per 120 games. Perhaps more interestingly, George Kottoras is the worst catcher projected, at 6.51 runs below average, nearly two runs worse than the second worst catcher. Kottoras was Tim Wakefield's personal catcher in Boston for much of last season, so it's possible his numbers are artificially low due to excessive knuckleball-chasing. Jason Kendall and Mike Rivera both project to be worth about two runs.
Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think Twitter is past the "fad" stage and has anchored itself as part of the mainstream sports conversation (follow BCB here). Gripped by the spirit of 140-character-or-less sports conversation, In-Between Hops has "tweets" on 32 Brewer topics.
In the minors:
- John Manuel of Baseball America released his Personal Top 20 Prospects List over the weekend, and ranked Alcides Escobar #17.
- When we discuss pitching prospects in the minors, I think we occasionally forget about Nick Bucci, but we probably shouldn't. The Sarnia Observer has a look at his 2009 season, which included an impressive run in Helena and an even more impressive stretch for Team Canada in the Baseball World Cup.
Work continues on the BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to select a #3 starter, and until the same time tomorrow to select a setup man. The latter is the closest vote we've had to date: As of this writing, Dan Kolb leads Derrick Turnbow by two votes, with six others within 30 votes.
Meanwhile, Right Field Bleachers has gone decidedly less democratic and selected their All Decade Team for you.
Just one transaction to report today:
D-Backs: Signed Bob Howry to a one year deal worth between $2 and 3 million, with a team option for 2011.
If you missed them, there were a few other transactions reported in Noah's Weekend Shot. The holiday weekend was a tough one for Brewer news, but it's still worth a read if you missed it.
Who would you rather have for 2010: LaTroy Hawkins or Justin Duchscherer? Duchscherer is actually guaranteed much less money in 2010 ($2 million, with $3.5 more in available incentives), as it turns out, and the A's didn't have to guarantee a second year.
Speaking of pitching what-ifs, Lookout Landing wonders what might have been if the Mariners had drafted Tim Lincecum instead of Brandon Morrow, who they recently traded away. It could always be worse for Mariner fans: the Brewers drafted Jeremy Jeffress six picks after Lincecum.
As Hall of Fame votes continue to trickle into the light of day, Baseball Think Factory is collecting them and has an early leaderboard, with Roberto Alomar, Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven the only candidates above 75%. Meanwhile, Craig Calcaterra (and lots of others) aren't happy with Jon Heyman's decisions.
A couple of sabermetric notes today:
- Beyond the Box Score has the starting point for a conversation on fielding metrics, dividing defense into four components.
- If you've ever looked at rate stats like a hitter's walk, strikeout or line drive percentage and wondered "What's good?" Adam Foster of Project Prospect has used data from 2007-2009 to compile league averages.
Happy birthday today to Bill Hall, who turns 30. If you're looking for a gift for him, a week's supply of chewing tobacco might be a nice touch.
That's all I have for today, unless you're still looking for gift ideas.
Drink up.
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Re: Heyman's HOF votes.
I’d like to paraphrase Captain Renault:
I’m shocked — SHOCKED — to find out that Heyman’s criteria for HOF candidates are ill-defined, poorly thought out, and, in many cases, inconsistently applied. This is wholly out of character for Mr. Heyman.
Also
Heyman twitter post last night:
i think there will always be disagreements over votes. doesnt make 1 person an idiot or "clueless.’’
Heyman twitter post after the NL CY vote:
i dont mean to pick on the voters. but how do 2 of them leave chris carpenter off the ballot entirely? #dumbsportswriters
Love it.
Get a ife broseph
Very nice.
I had forgotten Heyman was the one who chased after Keith Law for giving Vazquez a #2 vote.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
But he said he didn't "mean to pick on the voters."
So that makes it OK. It’s like prefacing a statement with: “With all due respect,” and then saying something disrespectful — you can’t be offended by that, because I told you I was making the statement with all due respect. That’s just science.
Dont hate, dont love Heymans vote
He’s doing something right if he has a HOF ballot, that goes for MVP, Cy Young, etc.
What are there? 2 sabermetric voters in the BBWAA now? As time goes on this will probably change.
The internet has brought in a lot more conversation to the votes of some of these people and the works of Bill James and BP, fangraphs, etc will put a bigger spotlight on “shallow” voters and votes.
I cant remember what my vote was this time around, but I think I had Dawson, Blyleven, and Dale Murphy.
Really, I know that writers like Heyman will always be using antiquated standards to make their votes (like his leaving off of Prince for MVP. apparently getting to the playoffs is the main criteria for an MVP), and I don’t let it piss me off anymore. Older school writers will always have their ways set in stone, and we need to realize that all of our bitching will not change their ways.
alomar, dawson, larkin, parker, morris & mattingly as a ballot can be defendable. I’m sure Jonah Keri is giving him ridiculous amounts of shit regarding his vote. Frankly. he doesn’t care and never will.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Older school writers will always have their ways set in stone, and we need to realize that all of our bitching will not change their ways.
I would agree, except I don’t know what Heyman’s standards are — and I don’t think he does, either.
Yeah
Considering he put Hanley Ramirez on his ballot, he can’t really argue that Prince was off because his team didn’t make the playoffs. I think it has more to do with the “no fun in baseball” vendetta some sports guys seem to have against Milwaukee.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
The marlins were still in it the final weeks
a vote for Hanley isn’t completely indefensible. He was the best player on a contending team
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I would get in a fist fight at the bar with anyone who would vote so badly.
Dawson over Raines? Parker? MATTINGLY? Morris over Blyleven? HOF doesn’t mean a damn thing anymore anyway… I don’t know why I let it anger me. As long as the keep ignoring stellar middle infielders and putting Jim Rices in, I don’t care if the place burns down.
by Braunstalker on Dec 28, 2009 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
Tigers?
Are you referring to the Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker omissions?
I still think its the be all end all. Most likely, if those two fall off the ballot, they will get in eventually by the Veterans Committee.
I cant think of too many guys in the history of the game that arent in (yet) that should be (guys currently still on the ballot excluded).
Twitter is great for some things
But for something like Adam Foster’s compilation of stats, it seems a little inappropriate without a link to an article of some kind. I’m assuming it’ll be posted as part of an article, but I’d like to see them archived on a site with more chance of archiving the info. Those data are going to be crazy useful as benchmarks for both hitters and pitchers.
Alomar
Wonder if he is elected, what he will look like or be presented, given his spitting on an ump incident, and also the speculation that he has AIDS.
Also of note, I love Baseball Prospectus’ view on HOF eligibility. They take the peak 7 years WAR, multiply by 2 and take the total WAR, average the whole thing out, and that gives you a number, that if its above or below the current HOF class, determines a players worthiness. They call it JAWS.
how do they define peak 7 years?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
ok, that's fair
I thought it might have been like age 26-31, in which case, I would have called it stupid.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
i would call it stupid too
because that would only be 6 years
Frankly, the Keltner List a much better assessment tool in my opinion
It was developed by Bill James (the godfather). It takes a lot more into the equation, allows for some subjectivity (specifically on character issues), and allows you to use the metrics you deem most appropriate.
Here’s the link for those interested
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I like that list
In addition to it giving credence to the “Paul Schramka is not that bright” argument.
Its pretty subjective though. Definitely gives my guy Dale Murphy a vote.
Dont a lot of the new metrics take care of that though? If I remember correctly, James states in the book that that list was first published (What Ever Happened to the Hall of Fame) he notes that the Hall is what it is, and he doesnt condone anyone who is in, or out, but that he just wanted clearer standards. The Keltner list doesnt really clarify much.
I prefer Hall of Fame Standards and Monitor. Takes a little bit of the “fan-ness” out of a vote.
Wasn't that the reason that the BBWAA given the decision initially
to take the “fan-ness” out?
I’m not so sure Hall of Fame Standards or Monitor is really the best way to go either. For one, it takes character issues completely out of the equation. Same deal with Gray ink and black ink standards. I mean, Jose Canseco is a HOF-er according to Standards. The guy is the self proclaimed “Godfather of Steroids”, and has no business being considered to be among the elite in the history of baseball.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Ive devised a non scientific way of figuring if a guy is HOF worthy
And it just jumbles the HOF Standards, Monitor, Black and Grey ink….
If a guy is above Average HOF player on 3 of the 4, hes a shoo in or at least worthy.
2 of 4, guy will probably get in but it will take some time.
But then what about the guys with 1 or less? Thats where BP’s JAWS metric can come in. Guys like Trammell, Larkin, Mattingly and Raines would have no chance with HOF Monitor and Standards or Gray and Black ink. But none of those measure Sabermetric stats, most notably WAR. WAR is included in JAWS.
Canseco only passes on 1 B-ref Measure, and he fails on JAWS as well. He only had 3 years with a 5+ WAR.
When it comes to the steriods era players and subjectivity, they are only going to have to worry probably about 4 or 5 players in all (McGwire (who doesnt seem to have a chance), Clemens, Bonds, ManRam and ARod. Subjectivity aside, the numbers always seem to play out. I mean Ty Cobb killed a guy and he’s in. All except for Dick Allen of course.
I don't know if Duchscherer would've signed for that here
But if he would’ve, I think it’s pretty obvious he’s a better option than a setup man like Hawkins.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
We can just assume DM called his agent and talked right?
DM would have at least tried, yes? There’s no way he could have just sat in his office, staring at his phone, and mumbling about a “small-market” $80+ MM payroll.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Dec 28, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
No.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 28, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions
Oh of course not
There’s no way that happened.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 28, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions
I think the fact that both Harden and Duchscherer could have been signed for less than what some relievers make is pretty good proof of the incompetence of baseball GMs in general.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I think it's just a show of how cautious GMs are being.
They are afraid to sign injury risks.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
well, if his best offer was 1 year, $2 mil plus incentives
Then he might have taken $3 mil plus incentives to play for the Crew, and his base salary would still be a savings over Hawkins.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 28, 2009 1:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
anyone still reading the weekend mug?
I’m surprised by how many people make the ‘pitchers are less valuable because they only play every 5 days’ argument..
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Do you mean we should continue the discussion here
or turn our attention to the weekend mug thread? There’s a lot to be explained and/or debated in that discussion, methinks.
Playing every 5th game can still make or break a team.
See: Suppan, Jeff.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Yes
Sarcastic comment noted
He has had exactly zero impact on the team the past two years. Last year maybe to the downside of 1 game, and 08 relatively none. Even if you switch him out for an All Star type pitcher, or one capable ot putting up decent numbers as a #3, #4, or #5 starter, it doesnt make a huge difference in the fortunes (sic) of the team.
The main problem iwth him is deficit value.
And morale killing.
With Sabathia, we all pretty much assumed it was a win. With Suppan and Looper, we assumed a loss, and sometimes had the audacity to hope for a win.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
With Suppan I always assumed a loss
But not so much with Looper, he always got a ton of run support.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 28, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
So...
if you’re talking:
The main problem iwth him is deficit value.
And you’re referring to the little system you use to take the Fangraphs player values vs. contract dollars, I’m not going to put a lot of stock in that. The dollar values that Fangraphs puts on players is based on free agent signings of the current year, if I’m not mistaken, in order to come up with some sort of monetary value for a marginal win. If you’re talking WAR vs. positionally adjusted league average WAR, then fine.
In my opinion, the main problem with Jeff Suppan is that he is bad at baseball.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 28, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions
He's a replacement level pitcher
At least the past 2 years.
But if you have a staff that has 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 WAR for each respective rotation spot, youre probably doing ok as a basis. So if Suppan is your #5 and hes replacement level, its not horrible. Problem is that he is paid like an ace, or at least a very capable #2 starter. Couple all that with the fact that at least last year, the team had 3 guys all pitching at replacement level.
Suppan is not replacement level.
He was decent in 2007 so his total time with the Brewers might balance out, but the last two years (and 2009 especially) he most certainly was well below a replacement level starter, as was Looper.
Replacement level pitcher =/= absolute worst pitchers picking up a baseball in the major leagues.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Wouldnt
Replacement level be more accurately described as a pitcher with 0 WAR?
In 08 Suppan had -0.2, a negligible difference from 0 and last year -0.7, definitely below replacement, but losing your team 1/2 a game during the course of the year, definitely doesnt help, but its not a horrible burden either. The difference between 1 WAR and -0.7, for the 09 Brewers wasnt a big deal, imo. But the big deal there is the way he is being compensated.
He’s being compensated like a very solid pitcher, a guy in the upper #3 starter range/lower level #2 starter range. He’s performing to the downside to the tune of almost 4 games, Id call that a big difference.
I guess I was saying that if nobody is reading the weekend mug, we could move it here
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Right now on FSN
Brewers classic: Prince’s and Rickie’s first home runs.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Thanks for the heads up!
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 28, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
Picture of McGehee...
Everyone better duck.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
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