Can the Brewers Sign Prince Long Term? Should They?
by The Teej 22 on Dec 29, 2009 10:40 AM CST
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PrintI have always thought the answer to this question was a profound, "NO!" But looking at the "bad contracts" coming off the books at the end of this year, I am beginning to think there is a small chance that we could sign him and still remain financially viable and extremely competitive for a few years, but a couple of things would have to be done to make it possible.
First, let's compete with the team Melvin has fielded for the year so far, with maybe adding Mulder to an incentive laden deal. Let's get through 2010 and plan for making a big run 2011-2013.
Second, at the end of this season we can all celebrate that we will no longer have to pay Bill Hall $7 million to play for Seattle. We don't have to pay Jeff Suppan $12.5 million anymore to fill a roster spot,. And let's send David Riske and his $4.5 million contract off to free agency as well. With those three contracts gone alone, the Brewers will be freeing up $24 million in payroll for 2011. And hopefully Brett Lawrie will be ready for the majors by 2011 so that we could save a few million at second base as well by letting Weeks hit free agency.
Third, the day after the 2010 World Series ends, offer Prince a serious offer. I'm thinking 6 years, $135 million. Starting at $15 million for 2011 and increasing by $3 million each year, ending with a salary of $30 million in 2016. Maybe even bump it up by $1-2 million a year if we really need to.
Considering Prince will make $10.5 million this year, that is only $4.5 million more for his services in 2011. This would leave the $19.5 million coming off the books for Suppan and Hall, plus any other salary dumping to be used for arbitration and other roster adjustments. Meaning that we could probably grab another #2 or 3 level starter.
This could mean that through 2011-2013 our starting depth chart could look something like this: 1B-Prince, 2B Lawrie, 3B McGehee/Gamel/Free Agent, SS Escobar, C Zaun/Lucroy/Salome, LF Braun, CF Gomez, RF Hart/Cain/Gamel/Free Agent/Trade, P Gallardo/Wolf/Parra/Free Agents/Trades/Farm System-Rogers, Arnett, Heckathorn.
I think that would be a great team to watch with a good mix of speed and power, as well as a pitching staff that looks much better than 2009 and what we will likely field for 2010. It is an offense that could keep putting the runs on the board like we have the past couple seasons and a pitching staff/defense that would give up much fewer than we did last year as well, especially if Parra turns it around and starts to pitch like we all know he can.
By 2013 though, Prince's contract along with Braun's would combine for around $29 million of the Brewer's payroll, and about $34 million for 2014, so the Brewers would probably have to trade Fielder sometime before or during the 2014 season, where his contract would be a bargain for most big market teams allowing us to recieve some quality prospects in return.
I know that locking up $30-35 million of our payroll in two players is a huge gamble, a bit extreme, and I'm not sure anything like this would ever happen. But I would love to see something like this pulled off. What do you think?
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if the brewers are out of the hunt come the trade deadline, i think we ship him off (for a very nice load). but if we were to sign him, i wouldnt offer him more than 3 years. (do you think his body is going to age well?) he will not sign a contract for less than 3 years, so i dont think it is feasible or smart that the brewers resign him.
I still haven’t seen a convincing argument for the mythical fat-guy decline. I’m not saying one doesn’t exist, I just haven’t seen one.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Cecil Fielder is the model
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/f/fielc001.htm
He goes from a 6+ to a 3+ to a 2+ to a replacement level player in 3 short years….All starting at age 27, by age 30 he was useless.
Why is he the model, because they're related?
Their body types aren’t really very similar, and Cecil’s just a single player who by no means can be taken as representative of a general trend. In fact, if you go by height/weight stats listed on Baseball Reference, Cecil’s body type is much closer to Ryan Howard than it is to Prince Fielder. Howard didn’t even make it to the majors full-time until he was the age Prince will be next season, and he clearly shows no signs of slowing down or declining at age 30.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
If Prince Fielder is 6'0 and 260
Then I am the King of the World.
I think that the model for Prince/Cecil is any overweight DH type. Howard is big, but he’s taller by a half a foot and lighter to the tune of about 50 lbs. The DH types that would be the model are guys who are taller and lighter. (Ortiz)
And family health history is quite important.
Well, you’re right about Prince’s “official” measurements, but that still doesn’t justify why we should expect him to start declining. Ryan Howard is 1" taller than Cecil Fielder – but, especially when he was in his prime, if anything Cecil looks much more muscular in photos.
There are plenty of overweight DH-types who were in their prime at or after the age of 30 (Howard, Ortiz, to name a couple off the top of my head), and if you want to argue they’re not comparable because they’re taller, that’s fine. But then Cecil isn’t a valid comparison either.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
My father died of a massive heart attack at age 58
Do you think its a good idea that I smoke, drink, and eat fatty foods?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 29, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions
how much taller/shorter was he than you?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Dec 30, 2009 1:21 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
First of all, there are clear genetic factors that contribute to heart health. I’m not sure what genes you think there are that determine when a person will lose their ability to play the game of baseball. Secondly, the Prince/Cecil argument is akin to saying that – no matter what you do or how you take care of yourself – you too will die of a heart attack at age 58. You probably don’t need to be nervous on the night before your 58th birthday…
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Eh
I don’t recall anyone saying “Prince Fielder is going to stop being able to play baseball at the exact age that his father did”.
I don’t know how you could possibly ignore something that has a very good genetic corellation (body type) combined with age and general trends in baseball (peak ages, declines, etc). You can bang your straw man’s drum all day, but the writing is pretty plainly on the wall: a fat, short man will not be able to play in the field for very long.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 30, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
General peak age trends in baseball
Like, the age Prince Fielder will be during the next 5-6 years?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I get it
You think he won’t stick to the fat man trend, but he will be at his peak for the next 6 years. You would like to sign him for 6 years.
I think its utterly idiotic to try and sign him to anything remotely similar to the OP’s contract suggestion. I think he will stop being effective in the field, and need to be moved which will be really hard since he’s going to need to be a DH and will be making a huge amount of money.
I guess we can differ on opinion, but don’t try to ignore one general trend and then accept another.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 30, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
He was pretty ineffective on the field before last year, where he was pretty much average
and we dealt with it.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 30, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions
Would you prefer Mo Vaughn?
His mythical B-Ref stats have him at 6’1", 230 and he made it all the way to 30 before playing most of his games as a DH and feel off a cliff from really good to league average at the same time.
As good as Frank Thomas was he was done as an everyday 1B by his age 29 season. As a DH he had 3 seasons in his 30s where he missed most of the season, and only had an OPS+ over 140 3 times in years he played more than half a season from 30 on after not putting up an OPS+ under 174 in his 20s. I don’t think anyone considers Thomas ‘fat’, but he was a large man who broke down and was a straight DH by the time he was 32.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 29, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
Mo Vaughn is a closer comparison to Fielder, but he’s still just a single anecdotal example. Plus, Vaughn’s career came to an end due to 1) his weight getting completely out of control, and more importantly 2) a series of serious injuries. I don’t see how either of those factors are guaranteed simply because of Prince’s current body type.
Frank Thomas isn’t really comparable to Fielder at all, he wasn’t overweight so much as he was a (probably steroid augmented) beast. Furthermore, he moved to DH (if Milwaukee was an AL team, Prince would be playing DH right now) but he was still a productive hitter into his 40s and finished fourth in MVP voting at age 38…
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Bah
This becomes the tit for tat argument when you go there.
“Who’s to say McGehee will regress in 2010. You can give me examples of guys who did, but I can give you examples of guys who didn’t.”
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 29, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
That’s why giving individual examples isn’t a very good way to predict future performance.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
OK
a short fat man will most likely be relegated to strict DH duty sooner than later. The majority of baseball players peak around 26, and begin to decline by 30. Therefore, it is a bad idea to sign Fielder to a long-term contract (as he is a short, fat man) with a HUGE amount of backloaded money that takes him into age 32, and then ‘try to trade him’ before the contract expires.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 30, 2009 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
The phat fat
Depends on their fitness, not their fatness. You can be a tub of lard with a ball cap on and still be productive if your fitness level is good, even if you’re half as round as you are tall and you run like a two-legged mule.
Babe Ruth was fat and jolly, and slugged into his late 30s. I’m not sure about his fitness level though, maybe his partying was sufficiently aerobic to keep him in shape. Kevin Mitchell was lazy, and worthless after 30. Johnny Bench was worn down from play behind the plate, but his power numbers were all before age 30.
John Mayberry was kinda hefty, and done by 31. John “I’m not an athlete I’m a baseball player” Kruk was done at 32, but he never really hit for power, he was an average guy. Kirby Puckett was a little meat cube in center field (ever seen his rookie card? he was scrawny) and his average dipped, but his power rose.
Bottom line? Odds are that Fielder will be less productive after 30 than he is before it, and what the voluminous vegetarian is able to accomplish will depend entirely on his regimen. My money is on him playing strong until 34, but the years worth paying for will be the next three.
Seriously??
Being related has quite a bit more to do with it than the fact that somebody else has a closer weight/height. Since they share the same genes, they share similar bone structures, muscle make up, aging rates……
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Genetics do not have such a macrodeterministic effect as to make it possible to predict when an athlete is going to start declining.
Body type would be a much more significant factor, assuming a correlation between body type/skill decline even exists.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I disagree with that completely.
But even if that’s correct, you still need to give some credence to genetics playing a factor. Given that his father had a similar body type, it’s ridiculous to disagree with using Cecil as the model. And using height and weight to determine body type is about as reliable as athletes using BMI to determine if they’re in shape.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Does anyone do that for other father/son baseball players? Bobby Bonds was no longer an everyday player at about the midpoint of Barry Bonds’ career. Ken Griffey Sr started to decline in his late 20s, even with his injury history Ken Griffey Jr is still playing into his 40s. And Cecil was 4" taller and about 50 pounds lighter than Prince; I’d say that’s a different body type.
The burden of proof that there is a correlation between Prince’s body type and his imminent decline is on those that say such a correlation exists, not on me. Pointing to a handful of cases (even if one of those cases is genetically related) doesn’t strike me as very convincing.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Most of the arguments for Fielder's regression are based on his size
So, no. People don’t look to Bonds’ father or Griffey’s father. You’re correct in saying that Mo Vaughn probably has a closer body type to Prince, but Cecil was still a huge guy. Factoring in the genetics, I think it’s an entirely fair argument to say that Cecil is the model for Prince.
I have to say, though. I did a google image search, and I had remembered Cecil being much bigger than he actually was.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I think he takes care of his body better than his father did, and Cecil played primarily first base until he was 31 before switching to DH. So I think Prince should be able to roam first until he is 31 or 32, even if it is only until he is 30, that would take us to 2014 and the time frame that I suggested to trade him. Cecil also continued to score about 80 runs, get 150 hits and 30-40 homers until he was 35 so I think an AL team would be more than willing to pick Prince up as a 30 year old DH with that type of production. Plus we may be able to get more in return if teams are able to keep him for 3 years without having to deal with Boras, versus one arbitration year.
I don't think he accepts a 3 years or less deal..
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
No and No
The Brewers have to get this notion out of their heads that they can compete as a larger market team would. And by that, I mean they have to trade away approaching FA players for prospects, invest heavily in scouting in player development, and continually be in a rebuilding phase with the hope that they “get lucky” every few years or so.
For a team like the Brewers to go for it all, or make one big playoff push, is financially and organizationally disastrous. And in the end, its not all just for one year, the long term impact is probably more like 5 to 10 years.
The Brewers barely break even when they draw 3 million fans, make a playoff appearance, and have a mid sized payroll. Giving Fielder a contract like the one you mention would put the money in the red, and add tremendous risk (as you mention) and whos to say they would be able to move that contract once he starts to age.
I am a big fan of maximizing trade value in a case like this, and right now Fielder is at his all time value. Even as a 4 WAR player for the next 3 years there is a decline from what hes worth, not to mention the amount of service time, and money owed him.
The thought by Melvin and Attanasio to sign free agents above value and play for one season, in the end can wind up turning this team into the post Melvin Rangers or the current Cincinnati Reds. No thanks.
You’re right, the Brewers payroll dictates that they have to focus on developing internal options. But like the OP notes, the Brewers have already assembled (or lucked into) a very decent core of cheap players that will be under team control for the next half decade (Salome/Lucroy at catcher, possibly Lawrie at second, Escobar at short, Gamel/McGehee at third, Braun in left, Gomez in center, possibly Cain or somebody in right). Hopefully they’ll have two spots in the rotation filled cheaply with Gallardo/Parra (and there are conceviably options in the minors who could be capable fifth starters, even if the organization’s top pitching prospects are quite a ways away). The Brewers still have a good enough core of internally-developed players that they can afford to spend some money on Fielder without creating huge holes elsewhere (assuming they stop offering dumb contracts to relievers, there is a lot of money available over the next 5-6 years – even after arbitration raises – to spend solely on Fielder, starting pitching, and other needs)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Thats true
But the problem, at least with Fielder, is that he has an agent that hates to sign guys past their FA eligibility dates, whether at fair value or above, and the Brewers should have thought of this strategy long before now.
If they attempt to buy out more than one year of FA I believe thats a mistake, and the reason for that is that they cant afford it and it shows lack of faith in the development program set forth by the franchise, as well as a lack of understanding of maximizing player value.
If they wanted to do something along these lines they should have signed him to a nice deal like they did with Braun or the Rockies with Tulo or the Rays with Longoria. Its already too late, why lock up a guy now who has already put up the big WAR season? That chance has long since passed.
I know that the potential is there for a huge 2012 with the last year of Fielder (at $16 million no less, a break even from this year’s payroll not including arb raises), but when you let him walk, nothing comes back in return. A late first round pick is nowhere near the maximum value for a player coming off the season Fielder did. I think even with a playoff appearance in 2012 (if they can get the arms to do that) its not worth it to keep him. I just think the better, long term, slow growth of the franchise is the smarter and more effective way for this team to compete. I just dont like the thought to franchise the franchise for the sake of one playoff appearance. Just too short sighted for me.
I had the funny thought of needing Ted Thompson to run the Brewers
Get out of my dreams and into my Chuckie Carr
-Molitorfan 12/23/09
Yeah if only Melvin had the foresight to offer Fielder a long term deal when he was breaking records and finishing in MVP voting while he was in arbitration. Oh that;s right Prince declined all of the offers. You would think after getting such a good deal on Braun they would try to do the same with Fielder. Unfortunately his signing bonus was stolen and the crew screwed him out of like 300k on some sliding payscale system that they use.
Backtocali , please show up to Miller Park wearing one of those shirts with your name printed on the back. I want to see BACKTOCALI spelt out like Sabathia in the back of that shirt so I know that I or some other fan on this site isn’t punching the wrong person. I will be at about 30 home games this year so these other guys only have to be on the lookout the other 51.
It obvioulsy makes sense not to take walks into consideration when discussing the quality of a hitter. Bonds never would have had as good of a season if it weren’t for those pesky walks. In my opinion Prince is a top 3-4 hitter in the NL.
Pujols
Hanley
Utley is not feared like Prince is. If the Twins can afford Mauer the Crew can afford Prince.
by Menace II Sobriety on Dec 30, 2009 1:19 AM CST up reply actions
Now thats an intelligent response
Threats aside, when Bonds put the ball in play, he did it at a .298 clip lifetime, and was in the top of the league in “hitting” 11 times during his career. Bonds had a great career as a power hitter, as a hitter, as a run producer, as having one of the best eyes and being one of the most feared players at the plate.
But being feared, and taking walks or hitting home runs isnt the same thing as “hitting”, guys who are the best hitters, put balls in play into base hits. Batting average. You know, the stat isnt a 4 letter word, it has tremendous value still.
I have acknowledged that Fielder is one of the games best power hitters and run producers. He has learned to wait for his pitch and take the free pass when he doesnt get it, but there are a handful of guys in league that are better hitters. If he were the #2 hitter in the game, he would have a higher batting average, its that simple.
I don't like to think about this team without Fielder...
so I just try not to do it. With that being said, the only way to possibly sign him long term is if he takes a major discount.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
Yeah,
the Crew without the BigMan is a sad thing to think about.
by Braunstalker on Dec 29, 2009 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
With or without him...
This team has a long-term plan at every offensive position. There is still a very solid foundation to build on if they decide to spend that $135M elsewhere.
As a hitter, Prince is second best in the game right now, and while he might decline quickly, he’s still getting better. The next couple of years that he is under contract are going to be GREAT. Melvin needs to prioritize getting someone to put in the lineup behind him other than Casey McGahee.
#2 hitter in baseball????
I know he had a really good season last year, but if you talk to a lot of prognosticators out there, they would tell you that hes basically a 4 WAR player and thats probably with neutral defensive contribution.
I would put him in the top 15-20 in the game, but hes not the 2nd best hitter out there.
We can all agree on Pujols as #1, but I would go with the following list above Fielder:
Chase Utley
Mauer
Hanley Ramirez
Matt Holliday
David Wright
Mark Teixiera
Dustin Pedroia
Kevin Youkilis
Ichiro
Jeter
Beltran
Ryan Zimmerman
by backtocali on Dec 29, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for ridiculousness
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Dec 29, 2009 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Aside from Ichiro
I do not agree with your list. Ichiro is a first-ballot all-world hall of famer, Joe Mauer is a hitting machine, and Derek Jeter is perennial producer, but I put Prince ahead of the rest of that list.
There’s no way in God’s creation that Chase Utley is better.
I would definitely put Fielder in the top 5 for power hitters
maybe even as high as 3rd behind Ryan Howard and Pujols.
Like I say I think hes a top hitter, and has better power numbers than most of the guys on my list, but better overall hitter (as the post implies)? Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright?
Better hitter
As a pure hitter, I’d say he ranks above all those players. If we factor in defense, certainly not but the parent post was only about hitting.
by kingcharlesxii on Dec 29, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
End of the work day
I’d crunch the numbers myself, but it’s time to go home and this is a daytime duty – when it comes to calling out the “best” of a group of players who have different styles and strengths everyone has their own tool for evaluation. Personally, I like TB/G. Prince has averaged 2.10 bases per game for the past three years. Anyone who can say the same or better, they’re a better hitter. Who knows – maybe I’m not giving someone on the list enough credit.
Numbers
Work time is for baseball stats, that’s why god gave us MS Excel. These results surprised me a little, but for the past three years all players both leagues, total bases per game played:
2.31 – Ryan Braun
2.23 – Albert Pujols
2.16 – Hanley Ramirez
2.15 – Alex Rodriguez
2.15 – Matt Holliday
2.13 – Ryan Howard
2.12 – Alfonso Soriano
2.11 – Mark Teixeira
2.10 – Prince Fielder
2.09 – Miguel Cabrera
2.05 – Chase Utley
2.01 – Carlos Lee
2.01 – Pablo Sandoval
2.00 – Jimmy Rollins
I'm now going to the Cardinals boards
And I’m going to say: “Ryan Braun is a better hitter than Albert Pujols”.
They will then call me ‘unprofessional’ and ride off into the sunset on their high horses.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 30, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
After you type that
you should untuck.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
We need a .gif untuck
Typing doesn’t do untucking justice.
Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge
by Bush League All Star on Dec 30, 2009 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
YES!
somebody really needs to make this happen
I was drunk. Sue me.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Dec 30, 2009 9:31 PM CST up reply actions
bless you noah
can baseball start now?
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
by trippingandy on Dec 31, 2009 6:22 AM CST up reply actions
Would you be wrong?
Yeah, you would. Pujols is the best hitter in baseball. Braun’s average is heavy because of his 113-game wunderkid rookie season and Pujols had an “off-year” in 2007, but Pujols is averaging 2.31 TB/G for his career, which is insane. Babe Ruth averaged 2.31 for his career.
I guess you missed the sarcastic humor in my post
Sorry to piss in your Cheerios.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 30, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry Charlie
I was just playing around with numbers and having some fun, didn’t mean to sound serious!
I just like to use the Cheerios line whenever I can
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 30, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
He said "hitter", not position player
There’s a difference. Can you agree that we would define “best hitter” as the one who has the highest projected wOBA for next year? That’s going to be Pujols in any system. The fangraphs fan projections put Fielder tied for third behind Pujols and A-Rod. I can do a little more on that when the rest of the projections come out.
If you’re just arguing “power hitter”, as you said below, I have no idea how you’d rank Howard ahead of Fielder. First of all, if you use a metric like wOBA, it doesn’t matter if you’re a power hitter or a singles hitter. Fielder is a much better hitter than Howard.
Check out this post for what I’m talking about.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Dec 29, 2009 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I think you make a good case
But again, he said “hitter” I love wOBA, it gives you a great measure of a players performance and production. I think though, that when you start to talk about “hitters” you have to take walks out of the equation.
Im not the best statistician in the world, but there has to be something out there that can measure hitting alone, without power factored in. Could it be as simple as batting average? A guy can be a great run producer, a great power hitter, have a great eye, but I think if you are going to measure how good of a hitter a player is, you have to look no farther than batting average.
If you look at fangraphs last 3 years combined for BA, you get a great list of guys I would consider great hitters. It doesnt take anything away from Fielder to say he is one of the top run producers in the game, one of the best power hitters, has one of the best eyes, is feared by pitchers, but I just wouldnt say that he’s an elite “hitter”, or definitely not the #2 or #3 hitter in the game.
Now we're just looking at batting average?
Why? Getting on base is a component of hitting. I didn’t know you were compiling the list of hitters with a higher projected average than Fielder. And frankly, I don’t know why you would want to. Considering you mentioned defense in the initial paragraph of the post, I don’t really know why you picked out the claim that Prince is the second best hitter in the game to argue with. It seems like we’re telling you that a good case can be made that he is, and you’re trying to change the argument.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Dec 29, 2009 9:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah...
let’s just look at Batter runs (past 3 years) at your list plus a few others:
Sum of past 3 years:
Pujols
A-rod
hanley
fielder
holliday
tex
wright
utley
Braun
Adrian gonzalez
youk
mauer
beltran
jeter
pedroia
ichiro
zimmerman
Weighting it in the 3, 2, 1 method from 09, then 08, then 07:
Pujols
hanley
fielder
tex
A-rod
holliday
A-gonz
Braun
mauer
utley
youk
wright
beltran
jeter
pedroia
ichiro
zimmerman
You are looking at a top 5 hitter in baseball. And since we are only talking hitting, batting runs is a measurement I think is pretty solid
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
and throwing Howard in the mix doesn't help your case either
He’s 14th both summed and weighted
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
ISO
Howard #2 in all of baseball over the last 3 years. I would say if a guy is up there in that statistic, he’s a great power hitter. Fielder is 4th on that list, which helps me make my case.
Its a fair measure of how good of a power hitter a player is.
fair enough
still can’t call him a hitter in the 10-15 range without ignoring a whole lot of evidence.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
and I mean fielder, not howard
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
See note above to Menace II Sobriety *eyes rolling
I fully acknowledge that Fielder is a top power hitter and top run producer.
I may be splitting hairs here, but I would consider a guy who is a great or elite “hitter” as one who gets a ton of base hits, i.e. a high batting average.
So if I make up a random definiton as to who is the best "hitter",
like, hitter with the best slugging (it takes all components of hitting into account!), and argue with anyone who disagrees, is that rational? I really don’t care how he amasses his production. It’s production. A batting average tells you something about a player, but it tells you almost nothing about how good of a hitter he is that you can’t find out by just taking his wOBA or obp/slg.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Well thats exactly what you are doing though
There are many components to an offensive players’ value. There is hitting for power, there is a hitters patience/eye,there is bunting, there is the pure ability to hit, there is the ability to produce/drive in runs and score runs.
Fielder does a few things very well that make him a top run producer, but the fact remains that batting average alone is a very good measure o how good of a “hitter” a player is.
You seem to be missing the point that if you want to measure someone’s ability as a “hitter” the ability to hit the ball and land safely on base, batting average is the way to go. It doesnt account more for HR or doubles, doesnt account for walks, it just tells you that a player hits the ball and it lands safely in play for a base hit. Fielder is not one of the best in the league in that part of the game, and he definitely inst the 2nd best at it in all of baseball.
You're forgetting an important part
it just tells you that a player hits the ball and it lands safely in play for a base hit. Fielder is not one of the best in the league in that part of the game, and he definitely inst the 2nd best at it in all of baseball.
So then why is this discussion we are having even relevant? Your argument is “In the statistic of batting average, Prince Fielder is not second best in the league”. I agree. I don’t think that “batting average” is a good measure of how good of a “pure hitter” a player is, whatever that even means.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I dunno
All players will decline with age, even Vlad Googooero, so it’s really all about making a best guess. Personally, I don’t think the Brewers can afford to take the risk after Prince hits 30 - so I guess if I were trying to re-sign him, I would take it to his 31st birthday, and trade him with one year to go.
It’s one thing to absorb a contract like Suppan’s, but it’s another when a player is making $22 million a season.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Crazy idea time
I’m going to preface this by saying that I am terrible at making up trade proposals.
How about Prince for Madison Bumgarner and another prospect?
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
wouldn't work
Sandoval is going to be relagated to 1st in the near future. They would have no place for both big men
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
As has been stated above
Fielder’s value is, most likely, at its peak right now.
I would expect the Brewers to trade him either prior to the trade deadline or after next season.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 29, 2009 10:41 PM CST reply actions
The big problems with keeping Prince.
1.) Our pitching is so bad, and I think it is clear we are not going either pick up pitchers internally or via FA. Trading Prince might give us a couple of more legit arms.
2.) I think he may have more value as a DH. I think the first thing that is going to go, is his fielding, and an AL team, might pay a lot more for him now knowing he can play first base, knowing that if he starts to suck in the field, they can move him to DH.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 30, 2009 8:08 AM CST reply actions
Comment threads like this make me want to go find another Brewers website to read.
Except there aren’t any.
Sigh.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 30, 2009 9:48 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I just realized that, in this thread, I am arguing that Prince Fielder is a top 3 hitter in baseball and not about number 15...
because of batting average.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Well Yeah
Did he get a higher percentage of base hits? If yes, then you justified your *sarcastic statement.
Is Juan Pierre more valuable than Bonds was, by no means. Did he produce as many runs? No. Is he a better all around player, definitely not. T
here are various measures out there that determine who is the best power hitter, who is the best at getting on base or producing runs, or wins for your team. But if you look at the list of players with the best batting average over the past 3 years, or over the course of time, those guys can fairly be categorized as the best “hitters”.
That is a very narrow definition of "hitter"
I think of “hitting” as encompassing a player’s entire offensive contribution while at bat. Maybe you call that “batting” or “offense” or some other semantic quibble.
If you really want to go that route
Just get it over with and select the player with the best contact % in the MLB and say that Luis Castillo and Marco Scutaro were undeniably the best hitters in MLB last year.
Give them a flubber bat, and they're the best hitter in baseball
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Braden Looper is an ace pitcher!
Look at all those wins. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
FREE BRADEN LOOPER!!!
I mean that is what he should sign for!
Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge
by Bush League All Star on Dec 30, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
Lets see.....
He will want at least 4 years at most likely the amount Howard gets in Philly (same agent as well). So thats 4 times $15million = $60 million.
All together now lets say “were so sorry but we will have to pass”…
Not saying he isn’t worth it but he will look very impressive in Boston.
by truebluebrewer on Dec 30, 2009 12:21 PM CST reply actions
Boras is going to ask for a lot more than 4/$60
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 30, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
AL for sure so he can DH
I’d trade him to the Rays for Jeff Niemann, and he can play out the remainder of his contract with Boston and the Yanks drooling over his power.
If they were to pull off something like that
They could probably get a premium on him which would inlclude a prospect in addition to Niemann. I dont know if the Rays would be able to take on his contract though for next year after his arbitration award.
A few years ago, on aonther board, I proposed a Braun for Longoria/Niemann trade (this was after Braun’s ROY year) to which I was predictably shunned and laughed at. I love having the last laugh.
Were you being shunned and laughed at because the other people thought Braun wasn't worth that?
Because I would shun and laugh at that because neither team would have done that trade at all.
Braun is untradeable
There’s simply no possible return big enough to compensate for having Braun locked into a 7-year deal in the prime of his career. Longoria/Niemann would be a push, and I wouldn’t pull the trigger.
If I understand him correct he proposed this prior to Braun signing that contract.
And Longoria is signed to an equally great (if not better) contract, anyway. The proposal is/was stupid, but not because the returns would have been unequal, just because no GM in their right mind on either side would ever do that.
yes
Prior to the contract signing, and prior to Longoria or Niemann playing a Major League game.
The Rays GM and Terry Ryan did work out a Delmon Young for Matt Garza trade soon after Young finished very high in the ROY voting.
If the trade had been done, the Brewers would be looking quite a bit better than they are now.
"I love having the last laugh..."
Good for you, though it would be a lot more impressive if you also admitted and later mentioned the occasions (rare though I’m sure they are), when you were wrong.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 30, 2009 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
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