CHONE Pitcher Predictions

Not looking too good. I personally am surprised to see them project Yovani's strikeouts so low, I would expect him to approach 200 again.

about 2 years ago NoahJ 16 comments 0 recs |

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In their hitters predictions...

They’re having Gamel and McGehee as just about identical:

Gamel .252/.322/.407
McGehee .262/.324/.410

"I hope your name is Rick"

by MrLeam on Dec 4, 2009 4:27 AM CST reply actions

Gallardo's also projected for only 145 IP

Bump that up to 180 and it works out to around 200 K.

by TheJay on Dec 4, 2009 7:20 AM CST reply actions

It's just a weighted average of past years

Those should all be rate stats because cumulative means little when the playing time is projected like it is.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Dec 4, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions

Though they do have a decrease in his K/9 both from his actual 2009 line and their 2009 projections, for some reason.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 4, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions

How about YAE?

Or does no one care about that anymore?

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 5:41 PM CST up reply actions

Must be something like that

Gallardo had thrown more innings in 2007 than he did in 2009, but I’m guessing his pitchcount may have gone up quite a bit. A 0.60 loss in K/9 is fairly large though.

(Bill James projects an increase, FWIW)

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Dec 4, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions

I still worry, though.

Particularly after the low pitch count 2008, he was 14th in pitcher abuse points in 2009.

Hopefully he’s not heading for an arm injury.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions

PAP just punishes good pitchers, there are better logical ways of assessing injury risk

Really, the only reliable way of predicting arm injury is… past arm injury.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Dec 4, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions

I'll go out on a small limb, here

and say you’re being WAY over-dramatic by saying ‘PAP just punishes good pitchers’. Anyone who watched Gallardo pitch last year KNEW he was in a large amount of high stress situations. I’m NOT shocked Verlander was as well…due to the fact that he was allowed to pitch in numerous high stress situations.

Now…you could go ahead and discount those. And I wouldn’t say you’re an idiot. But I would personally say this:

Based on injury, YAE, and PAP, if I was the Brewers, I’d watch Yovani Gallardo’s IP VERY closesly in 2010.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions

Doesn't his PAP have a lot to do with

him pitching so much more than the year before?

Sidenote: I don’t think his knee injuries should be any sort of sign that he’s going to have an arm injury.

Another Sidenote: Don’t watch his IP. They’re misleading because he throws so many pitches per inning. Keep an eye on his pitchcounts. I think Peterson will do a much better job of this, and we will see him getting an extra day of rest a few times throughout the season, especially if somebody like Suppan or Bush is moved to the pen.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Dec 6, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions

I think stress pitches and pitch counts

are a big determining factor.

But, yeah, knee injury obviously =/= arm injury. Although YAE might indicate something to keep an eye on.

I agree on PC vs IP though. My mistake above.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 6, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

stop the smear campaign against PAP!

by PagsBrewCrew on Dec 4, 2009 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs

rec'd

by Zorakathura on Dec 5, 2009 3:49 AM CST up reply actions

Time Machine

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Dec 6, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions

They have to go off of something

And two years ago Gallardo only had 30-something IP.

Also, since McGehee was something of a career minor leaguer before getting to MLB with the Brewers in 2009, they have to use minor league numbers for a couple of years back for him. Since MiLB =/= MLB, Smith likely uses something similar to Sackmann’s MLE calculator (or perhaps he actually just uses Jeff’s) in order to get a prediction on what his numbers would have looked like in 2007 and 2008. The fact that McGehee has nearly 3 times more MLB ABs than does Gamel, and they are projected for pretty much the same line is a testament to Gamel’s ability in the minors, and speaks (in my opinion) to the true potential of both of the players.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 8:12 AM CST reply actions

I'd add

CHONE thinks Villanueva will have a nice bounce back, which is good to see, although I’m a bit skeptical of that line.

Coffey looks to regress some but still performs better than career average.

Hoffman’s due to regress, and well past career average. Something about his peripherals the past couple of years coupled with his age probably.

And it looks like CHONE is buying what Mark DiFelice is selling. That’s nice to see, hopefully he’s 100% healthy and can have a good season.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 8:21 AM CST reply actions

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