Friday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while combining restaurants.
There's been a (likely unsubstantiated) rumor floating around that the Brewers have reached agreement on a three year deal for Randy Wolf. Again, odds are it's nothing, but it's still probably the top story on a slow news day, so here's some reaction to it:
- In-Between Hops says the move would "make the Brewers starting rotation 50% better than it is right now."
- Jorge Says No! thinks "this deal could turn into Jeff Suppan 2.0."
My reaction to the deal would depend on the price. If it'll take Suppan money to sign Wolf, then I'm not interested. But if the price is the rumored 3 years/$27 million, then we're getting close to the acceptable range. A third season for Wolf might be a bit risky, but the price is low enough to not be crippling.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are also still rumored to have interest in Gregg Zaun. FanGraphs has targeted Zaun as one of the players they'd like you to stop by and project today.
Assuming the front office isn't preparing to announce a Randy Wolf deal, they're most likely getting ready for next week's Winter Meetings. Adam McCalvy has a preview, including the Brewer needs, and once again raises the possibility that Jason Kendall could be back next season. McCovey Chronicles ranked Kendall seventh in their Future Free Agent Mistake Power Rankings.
Could Manny Parra be more effective out of the bullpen? I'm not sure I'm sold on it, but Keith Law said the Brewers should think about it in yesterday's chat, as noted over at View From Bernie's Chalet. Law also isn't too high on either Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee as a long-term solution at third base.
I know at least one BCB'er is already in line to get in, but if you were still trying to decide on checking out the Clubhouse Sale at Miller Park this weekend, John and Cait have a preview of the items that will be featured. After seeing it, I wish I had time to go.
If you're looking to do some Christmas shopping but you're more of the minor league type, the Brevard County Manatees also have some holiday specials going.
Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren will be back in the states this weekend, as the Venezuelan Winter League plays a two game series in Miami to showcase Venezuelan baseball in the US. Escobar and Iribarren's Lara team will take on a Zulia team which used to feature Brendan Katin. I'm assuming Katin has left the team, as he hasn't appeared in a game in over a month.
Elsewhere in the winter leagues, Mat Gamel went 0-for-2 with a strikeout in his VWL debut for Caracas last night. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Update.
Around baseball:
Astros: Signed pitcher Ryan Sadowski to a minor league deal.
A's: Acquired Aaron Miles and Jake Fox from the Cubs for reliever Jeff Gray and two minor leaguers.
Braves: Signed Takashi Saito to a one year deal.
D-Backs: Removed reliever Kyler Newby and catcher Luke Carlin from their 40-man roster. (h/t AZ Snakepit)
Mets: Signed Henry Blanco to a one year, $1.5 million deal.
Phillies: Signed Placido Polanco to a three year deal worth $18 million.
Rays: Released pitcher Ramon Ramirez.
Red Sox: Signed Marco Scutaro to a two year deal with a mutual option for 2012.
If some of the Brewers' current pitching targets don't turn out, might they be interested in Gil Meche? MLB Trade Rumors says the Royals are expecting to receive offers for him once the free agent market starts to heat up. Meche is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, but has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the last three years.
All three of these guys will probably come up in connection to the Brewers again at some point: Lookout Landing has a look at the upsides of Rich Harden, Erik Bedard and Ben Sheets, and explains why Harden is in a better position than Bedard for 2010.
Happy birthday today to:
- Carlos Gomez, who turns 24.
- Harvey Kuenn, who would have turned 79.
Oh, and no matter how disappointed you are in the offseason so far, at least we can all be glad Doug Melvin isn't responsible for these robocalls.
Drink up.
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Per TH - Counsell Update
I spoke with Brewers general manager Doug Melvin last night in advance of the annual winter meetings next week in Indianapolis. He said his focus remains on acquiring starting pitching help but said he also plans to make a contract proposal there in hopes of keeping veteran utility infielder Craig Counsell, a free agent.
Get a ife broseph
Good find, broseph
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 9:21 AM CST up reply actions
"he also plans to make a contract proposal there in hopes of keeping veteran utility infielder Craig Counsell, a free agent."
That almost reads like “DM is going to make CC an offer that will make him stay a FA”
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 9:18 AM CST reply actions
2yr $6M
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 9:38 AM CST up reply actions
That's about what I was thinking
Though hoping that Counsell might take slightly less to stay in Milwaukee.
Get a ife broseph
so the same contract he would have had in '09
if the Brewers had picked up his option instead of re-signing him for less.
If DM knew
that Polanco would sign for 3/18, do you think he would have offered arby to you-know-who?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Well, apparently Boras knows
that everyone will sign before he-who-shall-remain-nameless, and he would be left out in the cold, thus accepting the arb offer.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 9:20 AM CST up reply actions
The Polanco thing is a bit chicken-eggy.
If the Tigers knew the Phils would come after PP (hee hee) with a $18 million contract, they would have certainly offered him arbitration. But if the Tigers had offered Arbys, would the Phillies have offered that contract, knowing they’d forfeit their first-round pick? It is a pickle, no doubt about it.
I think technically
it was that a Wolf signing was imminent.
But, yeah, its a longshot.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
But I think it would be funny
because it would just roast Tommy H’s chestnuts if he didn’t have any inkling of this going down.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions
hahahahahaha
nice delivery
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Also
I’d be all for Double G on a $2M deal.
And does anyone have a link to the KLaw transcript?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
I sometimes think he spreads himself out too thin
I think both of his comments are off the mark.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I wouldn't disagree at all
Its just interesting to get perspective from a really, really hardcore sabre guy.
Usually, as Crasnick (I think it was him) pointed out, its a combination of stats and eyes that teams rely on. Or should rely on.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions
Can you really call Law a hardcore-saber guy though? I know he goes to a lot of games (especially AFL and minor league games) and is always big on rating player’s tools on the 20-80 scale. I don’t really remember him using any stats you can’t find on Fangraphs.
I would agree that he is oftentimes spread to thin. I think he went to one weekend Brewers series last year and made up his mind about Parra and Gamel then and will have the same answer for the next year about them.
I still usually like his opinion, while he is often wrong at least he’s not afraid to have a different opinion from stuff you read elsewhere.
Get a ife broseph
I think you can
Did you see his ballot for the NL Cy Young?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions
Speculation over at Lookout Landing
That Harden/Bedard/Sheets can be signed for 9/4/6 mil for one year deals. I would vote to sign all three for the $19 mil and then hope their DL stints are such that at least two are always available. A starting rotation of YoGa/HBS/Bush/Parra would move 2010 from iffy to pretty freakin’ awesome.
Or DM could spend $27 mil on Randy Wolf.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
That would be really amusing
Sheets pitches April-June
Bedard pitches April, May, August
Harden pitches June-August
Anyone not pitching simmers with relatively low pitch counts in AAA. The effective, healthy ones left standing get called up in September.
… somehow, I don’t think they’d be content during those 2-month stints in the minors.
I'm expecting each to be on the DL
probably the 60 day variety at some point in the season. The hope is 2 are always healthy so Suppan becomes long relief blow-out guy. If all three are healthy and they can push Bush/Parra into the pen, all the better.
I would also note they have 3 open spots on the 40 man roster currently. Coincidence? I think so, but DM should ask one of the interns how that box with the number pad works at get on this. He could go from goat to hero pretty fast if he pulls off this trifecta.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 4, 2009 10:44 AM CST up reply actions
At least one of those 40 man spots will be a Rule 5 pick
And another will most likely be a catcher.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
How's the rule 5 thing work on the minor league side? Does the pick have to go on the 40?
I know the major league version requires him to be on the 25 man all year, I don’t see the brewers getting anyone there.
I think the 25-man is the only thing
If the team doesn’t want to keep the pick on the 25-man they have to offer the player back for 25k. The original team can either take him back, or leave him with the new team. Many times, apparently, the two teams will work out a trade of minor leaguers so that the pick can remain with its new team, rather than being given back.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I’d be surprised to see a rule 5 pick join the team. He would only add depth to either the pitching staff, or middle infield, but we’ve already got that depth in players like Halama, Axford/Butler, and Heether, who don’t have that 25 man stipulation.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Each level of the minors has its own reserve list
I believe players selected in the AAA or AA portion can’t be moved below the corresponding list. That said, I don’t know if there’s really a penalty for moving selections between levels – I doubt the former teams really want those guys back anyway.
Right
I’m pretty sure Brock Kjeldgaard, for example, is Rule 5 eligible this year, and since he finished the season in A ball, he could be selected in the AA or AAA rounds.
I’m also pretty sure players drafted in the minor phases of the draft don’t have to be returned under any circumstances, mainly because the guys selected are typically of low value…we’re talking about guys with 4-5 years of minor league experience that haven’t even reached the upper levels.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Yeah
One more thing: the Brewers could have added Kjeldgaard to the AAA reserve list to protect him from both minor league portions in the same way they added Cain and Rivas to the 40-man roster. Shrug.
Aaah
I misunderstood mykenk’s question.
Good thing you guys didn’t.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions
And one of them is Seth McClung
who probably isn’t coming back, and if they add another catcher then Rivera isn’t being offered arbitration. DM isn’t paying $1 mil+ for the fifth C in the organization.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Dec 4, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
Jody Gerut will probably be nontendered as well
So there’s another $1.5 million or whatever for PITCHING.
I'm not so sure..
If you ask me, Gerut > Hart. Specially since Harts salary is getting higher. I’d take Gerut and his +D in right over Hart any day.
Yeah, I wonder about that, too
But I think Hart has the advantage of being the incumbent starter, coming up through the system and playing here for multiple years, and more of a power and speed reputation than Gerut does.
But if salary pressures
Are as bad as dug make it out to be, then we should move on from Hart. I just hate watching him pull a Jenkins and swing at every thing. Gerut showed that when given the chance for D2D his numbers improve.
But meh.. we’ll probably sign him to a Hall style contract.
They're not.
And if salary pressures are bad, they should just trade fielder and braun, and not give the fans the impression that they’re “trying” for anything.
I think that they will keep Gerut
The fact that he can play CF and provide a decent LH hitting option off the bench I would like to think that is worth investing a million or 2.
Gillespie
I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a shot at Cole Gillespie in the rule 5 draft.
by Infield Fly Rule on Dec 4, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions
If he's not on the 40-man
I could see that.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
That would make sense
That they would protect him. I had seen that he wasn’t protected not to long ago.
by Infield Fly Rule on Dec 4, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
Hardy v. Scutaro
I saw that Scutaro signed for 2yr $10M – and some sort of option….
We were talking about perhaps the Sox signing Scutaro was an indication that a trade could have been worked out for JJ.
According to CHONE, Scutaro will out-perform JJ next year, and probably cost about the same amount of money.
That said I do think that, CHONE projections be damned, Melvin personally tied a lead anvil to JJ’s trade value balloon and really screwed things up.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 9:42 AM CST reply actions
I like the reference to an Anvil
Ive been working on a spreadsheet of all of the NLs players/prospects combined surplus value, and Gomez is more valuable than Hardy, given years of service, projection, salary, etc, to the tune of about $5 million. For reference, I determined that Gomez has a $21 million (approximate) surplus value. At mid point last year I think Hardy was about $16 million or so.
I do think that Hardy could have been shopped to the Red Sox for a pitcher, although not Bard or Buchholz. If it were Bowden and one of the many nice OF prospects the Red Sox have that might have been a nice deal.
Id have to look back at it, but apart from the Sabathia trade, I wonder what success DM is at getting a good deal. (The one that I would have to check on is what C Lee’s surplus value was at the time of the Cordero trade, that trade worked out quite well for the team, imo.) The reason I ask this is that the Kelly Shoppach deal recently turned by the Rays for a PTBNL is one the Brewers could have looked at, and when the price was so small, why didnt they pull the trigger?
I don't doubt that 4 years of projected Gomez is worth more than 2 years of projected Hardy
But it’s like taking a penny a day for a year instead of $3.65 now, while you’re trying to buy something.
Also, I doubt anyone’s ability to predict the next four years of Gomez at this point. Sure he’s young and has potential, but he’s also got a sub-.300 OBP. The sky is the limit with him, but the basement is, too.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Happy Birthday
Goooooooooomez!!!!!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
big PECOTA fan
Here’s my methodology, subject to new numbers being put out by Baseball Prospectus and salary numbers:
without adjustments for last years bad season (new numbers wont come out for them until February), they have Gomez at a 3.4, 3.2, 3.4 WAR clip for the next 3 years. Add in $1, $2, and $3 million salaries for the next 3 years, thats an upside surplus value of over $40 million (bigger than Fielder)
If you factor in that Gomez missed their number by about 73% I would call that his downside going forward, or 0.9 for the next 3 years at the same salary for a downside surplus value of around $10 million.
Take the midpoint where he gets WAR numbers of 1.8, 1.7 and 1.8 (not awful nor great years) and you get that $21 mil value. His defense alone probably gets you that.
Ok, I can live with that.
But even that somewhat pessimistic projection is hardly guaranteed. If he posts a .290 OBP next summer with limited power and is -10 runs at the plate, then he’d have to be one of the game’s absolute best center fielders (and play everyday) to get ther +20 he’d need to be a one win player.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
That’s exactly what he did in 2008, to the tune of 2.3 WAR
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Dec 4, 2009 2:38 PM CST up reply actions
Guess I forgot the positional adjustment.
This might be the greatest indictment for positional adjustment I’ve ever seen.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Actually let me help you out here
The positional adjustment is only 3 runs or so. What you’re missing is that the negative 10 and +20 are compared to average. For wins you’re comparing to replacement, which is negative 20. So if he plays everyday and is a 10 hitter, +10 defender, he’s exactly average- or a 2 win player. Whoooo!
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Yeah, I knew I should have trademarked it.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Sadowski Signing
The astros not only signed him, but they erased all video footage of him pitching, and only plan on using him in day games at Miller Park.
A brilliant move!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I was at that game
Remember being there with my wife and two little nephews and hoping that they would skip a day and throw Lincecum and was shocked and saddened to see this Sadowski guy pitching. I think we only wound up staying 3 innings because we were in the sun and it was a hot day and my nephews were dying in the heat.
I thought the Brewers would eventually pull that game out (like they did the night before) but the kid just keep on grinding out the innings and the outs.
I wasn't planning on going to the clubhouse sale
but damn, those are some good deals. I might have to swing by today.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
Decent Deals
We dropped a good chunk of change at the sale….got some “game-used” BP jerseys for $25 each (Spurling & Kremblas), a Capuano “game-used” away jersey for $100 (2008), and lots of christmas gifts.
They’re throwing the postseason gamedays into shopping bags for free. Kicking myself for purchasing those at the playoff games.
It’s packed right now – if you’re thinking of going, wait until the afternoon when they restock. Maybe 1ish?
Clubhouse Sale
They finally had 08 Game Worn Jerseys. Priced from $75 – $1500. Guess who is $1500? That’s right, your very own Craig Counsell. Name plates are 75 – $500 depending on player. Most have been picked over after 10 minutes. Branyan is $300 (bit to much for me), few others still remain but over price. (Gross is still $150.. come down to $75 I buy them all!)
Not a lot of sweatshirts compared to last years. If you are a Hardy or Hall fan, everything must go. All kinds. Road Jersey Replicas $20, Road Jersey Authentic $50. Lots of game worn hats, but they prices are way to high.
ZERO LOOPER STUFF. I’m probably reading into it to much, but zero Looper stuff. crap is he back?
I just got an $80 zipper-hoodie
for $20. I’m pretty pleased with my visit.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 4, 2009 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
Nice
should I email you my address? Or did I not make the ‘holiday gift list’ this year?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 4, 2009 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
Zero Looper stuff
I noticed that too. I thought for sure you’d gotten there ahead of me and bought the Looper stuff, Sgt.
I sprung for the $150 Iribarren-as-#26 jersey, mostly because it was a 2008 jersey and because I look better in navy than white. If Hernan is traded or craps out, I’ll figure out how to buy individual letters and change it to a Parra jersey.
The navy fabric is lighter. I like it already.
You've got a couple screws missin' up in your toolbox, if you think that you'll stop this man from hittin' moonshots.
I know!
I’m 60% of the way to PARRA already. Maybe the custom shop would sell me individual letters. The Soup jersey was $800 (and was white, so the letters would be the wrong color).
Thankfully, there was no Patterson jersey at the sale. The Patterson locker nameplate was bad enough – $75, same as John Axford, who should be mad at the Brewers for pricing him the same as C-Patt.
You've got a couple screws missin' up in your toolbox, if you think that you'll stop this man from hittin' moonshots.
3/$21 sounds about right for Wolf
I have him at about 180 IP and 4.25 ERA for 2010. So maybe he’ll be worth something like $9/$7/$5 mil over the next 3 years. If he takes 7/7/7, I guess that leaves enough money to sign a second average pitcher? Playoffs, here we come! :)
by rluzinski on Dec 4, 2009 11:30 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I think
He could get 3/$25 but I wouldnt want the Brewers to be the one paying it. The first 2 years project nicely, but that third year will be a killer.
I just dont think he is a good fit for Miller Park. He had the lowest BABIP in the NL last year, and is a flyball/HR pitcher going from a pitcher friendly park to a hitter friendly park.
From McCalvy
Free agent catcher Gregg Zaun told a Toronto radio station on Friday morning that he could sign with a team soon, perhaps before the end of the day Friday. Barring a medical impediment, it looks like that team will be the Brewers.
Yay, Another Melvin Ranger. Collect them all I guess.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
Can I combine all the individual Mighty Morphin' Melvin Rangers
into one, big, super-fighting machine, like Megazord?
See the fanshot
but the THWitter reports that he’s promised the #1 catcher slot
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
" Can I combine all the individual Mighty Morphin' Melvin Rangers"
No. You can only own them, one at a time.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed.
The rich kids get Massive Mammoth Molinas for Xmas.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
or Channukah
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
On the second day of Xmas my GM gave to me
2 Molina backstops, and an ex-Ranger with bad kneeeeessss…..
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
Anything I buy in a bottle,
I am either drinking or wearing.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions
Grit is absolutely quantifiable.
See you local hardware store for more information.
This is 2500 Grit.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
ah, nuts
Didn’t realize you were around…and that the Zaun news was getting discussed in the Mug. Bad contributor, bad… <—me
I am not sure this qualifies as "Zaun discussion"
This is more “tomfoolery”
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Dec 4, 2009 1:42 PM CST up reply actions
FanShotted to front page
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Silly off-season moves
are taking all the focus off the clubhouse sale.
Also definitely worth looking at
This expose involving Sportscenter and the ESPIN.
FWIW, I wish I could put an accent on that e.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
Blue Jays
I find it funny that Scutaro could net the Blue Jays a 1st round pick, while Burnett only got them a 3rd round pick.
Then again, that would require the BoSox to stay away from other type A FAs
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Their big pickup will be Halladay anyway.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 4, 2009 6:22 PM CST up reply actions































