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BCB Projections: Braden Looper and the Replacement Starters

So the signing of Looper throws off our projections a bit. Today all I ask is for a true-talent ERA/FIP/tERA estimate and innings pitched for Looper. Here's his CHONE projection (4.68 ERA), and his ZiPS projection is a 4.53 ERA. We'll leave the other four starters alone, but I'm assuming this will change our innings projections for McClung and Capuano. Let's just give both a projection for innings pitched as a starter, we already have an ERA projection. We don't need ERA for McClung or Capuano, just innings pitched as a starter, we'll deal with relief innings later for McClung later. I'll just assume replacement level pitching for Mark DiFelice or Chase Wright, we probably won't have to credit any anyway.

Format will be simple:

Looper Innings

Looper ERA

New McClung Innings

New Capuano Innings

You don't actually have to type "Looper" or "McClung", just type it out like this:

IP

ERA

IP

IP

Please disregard this if Looper fails his physical.

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Dont think that this has been discussed much

But might there be a good chance for him to fail the physical?

Didnt have a big injury like Ben did last year, but is there a reason St Louis didn’t offer arbritation or an offer even after. Maybe something will happen, and he fails… I would give it a 15% chance- too high?

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Feb 10, 2009 3:35 PM CST reply actions  

Much too high.

Maybe 2%. When the Cardinals let him walk, it was reportedly for financial reasons.

He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 10, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Nobody got offered arbitration

He wasn’t for the same reason as Dunn, Abreu, Hoffman, and many others— teams weren’t willing to risk taking on salary.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 10, 2009 5:59 PM CST up reply actions  

170

4.70

50

30

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 10, 2009 3:56 PM CST reply actions  

190

4.60

80

20

He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 10, 2009 4:06 PM CST reply actions  

Am I the only one

Who wants to adjust McClung’s ERA projection now that he’ll likely spend much of the season in the pen? I think McClung is likely a .20-.30 better pitcher from the pen, based on career trends. If I’m the only one who feels that way, then the difference probably isn’t big enough to impact the projection, but if others feel the same way…

He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 10, 2009 7:20 PM CST reply actions  

Should've clarified that

We’ll either handle that with another bullpen post when the roster is a bit more finalized, or I’ll just consult the book for the ERA adjustment for relieving vs. starting and knock down McClung’s ERA accordingly. I’m open to suggestions. I’m going to post another bullpen thread at some point, when we find out who’s on the opening day roster and if Morlan makes the team.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 10, 2009 8:59 PM CST up reply actions  

For McClung, you should just lower his projection by 1 full run since he's in the pen.

That’s the generally observed impact that the move has.

anyway…

180
4.60
65
65

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Feb 10, 2009 7:33 PM CST reply actions  

Great minds think alike

should’ve finished reading the comments before replying to KL. We can definitely do that— I know The Book has a number that’s a little more precise than 1.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 10, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions  

170
5.20
70
120

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 11, 2009 8:34 AM CST reply actions  

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(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)


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