BCB Projections: Braden Looper and the Replacement Starters
by Jordan M on Feb 10, 2009 3:21 PM CST
Email
PrintSo the signing of Looper throws off our projections a bit. Today all I ask is for a true-talent ERA/FIP/tERA estimate and innings pitched for Looper. Here's his CHONE projection (4.68 ERA), and his ZiPS projection is a 4.53 ERA. We'll leave the other four starters alone, but I'm assuming this will change our innings projections for McClung and Capuano. Let's just give both a projection for innings pitched as a starter, we already have an ERA projection. We don't need ERA for McClung or Capuano, just innings pitched as a starter, we'll deal with relief innings later for McClung later. I'll just assume replacement level pitching for Mark DiFelice or Chase Wright, we probably won't have to credit any anyway.
Format will be simple:
Looper Innings
Looper ERA
New McClung Innings
New Capuano Innings
You don't actually have to type "Looper" or "McClung", just type it out like this:
IP
ERA
IP
IP
Please disregard this if Looper fails his physical.
16 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Dont think that this has been discussed much
But might there be a good chance for him to fail the physical?
Didnt have a big injury like Ben did last year, but is there a reason St Louis didn’t offer arbritation or an offer even after. Maybe something will happen, and he fails… I would give it a 15% chance- too high?
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Much too high.
Maybe 2%. When the Cardinals let him walk, it was reportedly for financial reasons.
He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.
Nobody got offered arbitration
He wasn’t for the same reason as Dunn, Abreu, Hoffman, and many others— teams weren’t willing to risk taking on salary.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Am I the only one
Who wants to adjust McClung’s ERA projection now that he’ll likely spend much of the season in the pen? I think McClung is likely a .20-.30 better pitcher from the pen, based on career trends. If I’m the only one who feels that way, then the difference probably isn’t big enough to impact the projection, but if others feel the same way…
He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.
Should've clarified that
We’ll either handle that with another bullpen post when the roster is a bit more finalized, or I’ll just consult the book for the ERA adjustment for relieving vs. starting and knock down McClung’s ERA accordingly. I’m open to suggestions. I’m going to post another bullpen thread at some point, when we find out who’s on the opening day roster and if Morlan makes the team.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
For McClung, you should just lower his projection by 1 full run since he's in the pen.
That’s the generally observed impact that the move has.
anyway…
180
4.60
65
65
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
Great minds think alike
should’ve finished reading the comments before replying to KL. We can definitely do that— I know The Book has a number that’s a little more precise than 1.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
