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A Look at Some Signed Free Agent Pitchers

No projection post today, but instead, I present this quick comparison of six pitchers that were on the free agent market this offseason. All of them have now been signed by teams, to contracts varying in value and length. The ERA and K:BB ratio projections are from Fangraphs CHONE, the "Innings" column is an average of the player's past three years as a starter.


ERA K/BB Innings
Pitcher A 4.71 1.85 205.1
Pitcher B 4.72 1.75 178.3
Pitcher C 4.85 1.83 187.0
Pitcher D 4.84 1.83
140.8
Pitcher E 4.72 1.88
120.8
Pitcher F 4.83 1.8
202.1

I was absolutely shocked to see how closely these pitchers matched up. If this were all we knew about these pitchers, you'd probably be comfortable giving a deal to all of them, they seem to be a group that's a bit worse than league average. Maybe you'd only commit to one year for a starter who seems to be less durable like D or E, and maybe you'd be willing to pay a bit more for a pitcher who has averaged over 200 innings the last three years like A or F. B and C probably fall somewhere in between. You would probably expect these pitchers to all get fairly similar deals, right? Well, that's not necessarily the case.

Pitcher A: Jon Garland; 1 year, $7.25 million

Pitcher B: Oliver Perez; 3 years, $36 million

Pitcher C: Braden Looper; 1 year, $4.75 million + incentives

Pitcher D: Odalis Perez; 1 year, $500,000 minor league deal

Pitcher E: Randy Wolf; 1 year, $5 million + incentives

Pitcher F: Jamie Moyer; 2 years, $13 million

Under no circumstances would I condone using only CHONE projections and innings averages to evaluate starting pitchers. But when these pitchers match up that closely in a projection system and get such varied deals, you wonder what's going on. I couldn't give you the actual strikeout and walk rates, or this would have been easy to figure out. It is interesting that Looper and Oliver Perez project at the same ratio even though they will achieve it in different ways.

I've covered my thoughts on the Looper deal already, but this puts the signing in context. We got a pretty nice deal in relation to the market, and after the tier of Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, and Randy Johnson (and Sheets, before his injury), we got a pitcher that matches up very well with the six others in what I consider the second tier of free agent starting pitchers. Not only that, but we got him for the second-cheapest deal of the six, and didn't have to give up a draft pick to do it.

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Odaliz Perez

This type of thing really makes you wonder why Odalis Perez only got what he did. The guy is pretty much even with several other people who got 5 mil+.

The more I think about it, the more I wish we had pursued him.

by cwolf20 on Feb 12, 2009 3:59 PM CST reply actions  

Dare I say it?

At this point, I think the Nationals got the best deal of the bunch. That feels so strange to say…

by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 12, 2009 6:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Jim Bowden loves his outfielders

From Lookout Landing:

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 12, 2009 6:30 PM CST up reply actions  

LH at third base

This must mean they are expecting lots of 5-2 force outs at home plate this year!

by oconnobe on Feb 12, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Dunn's going to be playing first base though.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Feb 12, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Still

11 outfielders— too many.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 12, 2009 10:28 PM CST up reply actions  

arctic tailgate

sorry i know its off topic but for those of you that attended last year, how early should i get there to assure i will be able to purchase opening day tickets? they said there is a small amount availible.

by BenSheets15 on Feb 12, 2009 4:27 PM CST reply actions  

Jamie Moyer

I’m pretty sure Jamie Moyer received a 2 year 13 million dollar contract.

by brewfan2 on Feb 12, 2009 4:52 PM CST reply actions  

2 Year $16M according to Wikipedia, if that ever was a source.

by Lavender on Feb 12, 2009 5:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Yep

Philly.com: Dec. 15: Signed pitcher Jamie Moyer to a two-year, $13 million contract.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 12, 2009 5:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Fangraphs had it wrong in their writeup

Cot’s confirms you are correct

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 12, 2009 5:52 PM CST up reply actions  

And I typed it wrong

R.J. Anderson said 2, 16 in the fangraphs writeup, and I typed 2, 26. So we were both wrong.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 12, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Looper Physical

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090212&content_id=3820222&vkey=news_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere, but Looper passed his physical and Rottino was designated for assignment.

by oconnobe on Feb 12, 2009 5:56 PM CST reply actions  

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