If the Brewers Switched Places with the Timber Rattlers
Soon, KLSnow will be drawing the winners for the Timber Rattlers ticket giveaway. There's still some time to enter. In the spirit of the Timber Rattlers, now's as good a time as any to examine my following conundrum.
I have always wondered what would happen if a good major league position player in his prime played a full season for a minor-league team, especially if he was healthy and not on a rehab assignment. I came upon a solution to this issue when I was playing with Jeff's Minor League Equivalency calculator the other day. The primary purpose of it is to determine how a player's stat line would have looked in the majors instead of playing at AAA or AA, you're probably familiar with the idea if you've read many of our stories here. But the translations can be abused-- you can reverse the translation to see how a major-league player might have performed at AAA, or even down to low A. Then we can adjust for park and league.
So how might the hypothetical Brewers have performed if the roster was transported and played for the Timber Rattlers last season, facing low A pitchers in low A parks? The results, I assure you, have absolutely no analytical value. But they are fun to look at.
The important thing to remember is that translations are not really applicable to baseball-- they're a specific multiplier to account for difficulty of the event in the league. For example, a translation of Barry Bonds's 2004, in which he hit .362/.609/.812 and 45 home runs for the Giants, says he would accumulate 187 hits in 168 at-bats for a batting average of 1.117-- with 83 homers. Would he have hit 1.117 playing for the Timber Rattlers? Probably not.
So with that in mind, in 2008 crazy hypothetical world, the Brewers and T-Rats switched, and the Brewers roster played against the Low-A teams in the Midwest League. Here's how things turned out:
Ryan Braun batted .424 and hit 68 home runs, driving in 196. He narrowly missed a 1.000 slugging percentage.
Prince Fielder hit .444 and racked up 64 home runs. The weaker arms of low A catchers allowed him to steal an impressive 5 bases while only being caught twice. His inside the park homer total increased to 2.
J. J. Hardy managed to come in second on the team in average at .439, while cranking an impressive 44 home runs out of Fox Cities Stadium. Sadly, the change in catcher ability only resulted in one extra stolen base-- some people just are not fast. A more concerning problem is the fact that J.J. was hit by 33 pitches in the Midwest League-- those pitchers must have been jealous.
Corey Hart may have only hit .389, but did connect on an impressive 70 doubles. He did not quite crack the 40/40 club, with 37 homers and 35 stolen bases.
Bill Hall hit .339 with 28 home runs. Imagine what he could have done with LASIK! I wonder how many of those homers came against left handers.
Rickie Weeks scored 165 runs, leading to the inevitable conclusion that he is a run scorer. If you disagree, you probably have no concept.
Jason Kendall gritted his way to a .342 average. His KUG equivalency increased dramatically, from 158% in the majors to an astounding 240%, driven by the increased grittiness of being a veteran in the minor leagues.
Mike Cameron struck out 120 times at low A. He probably sucks.
Ben Sheets would have hit .106 if the designated hitter rule didn't apply to Single A.
Finally, in 116 at-bats, Russ Branyan hit 22 home runs. I advise extroplating this figure to 600 at-bats, which yields 112 home runs.
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Finally, in 116 at-bats, Russ Branyan hit 22 home runs. I advise extroplating this figure to 600 at-bats, which yields 112 home runs.
It was worth coding the MLE translator just so that I could one day read this sentence.
Also, cheese.
I had been thinking of working on translations all the way down to rookie ball
…but it frightens me to think of how jihad would use them.
Also, cheese.
I'm waiting for infield translations
- Carlos George errors in major leagues would be hilarious
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
"Mike Cameron struck out 120 times at low A. He probably sucks."
Ha!
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 14, 2009 4:23 PM CST reply actions
Wow
Since most of the stat lines at T-Rats games are batting averages of about .230 with OBP and slugging not much higher, this tells me just how bad A-ball is.
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
by No Huddle Offense on Feb 14, 2009 5:42 PM CST reply actions
Three off-the-cuff explanations:
None of them backed up by any research except looking up the numbers:
1) Weather. Obviously not every prospect is from a tropical culture, but players who grew up in California, Central/South America and the Caribbean probably take some time to adjust to hitting in 35-50 degree temperatures at night, which is what you’re looking at in April and May and sometimes later in several MWL cities.
2) Advancement. Guys who rake in Low-A get pushed up the ladder pretty quickly, so a lot of the ABs that get accumulated by guys in the Midwest League are coming from guys who aren’t hitting well enough to move up.
3) Holding back pitchers. A lot of teams with Low A affiliates in the Midwest League also have High-A affiliates in the California League, which destroys pitchers. Only one team in the Florida State League had an ERA over 4.08 last season. Eight of the ten teams in the California League had ERAs higher than that, including High Desert (5.84). So some teams keep a pitcher that might otherwise advance in the Midwest League as long as they can, and try to skip them over High-A. IIRC, the Brewers did that a couple of times.
He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.
a couple of others
the more powerful weather-related phenomenon is that, whether or not players are used to it, it’s tougher to hit the ball very far when it’s cold. Appleton in April? Hit a double in the gap and you’ll be feeling it for a couple days.
in general, the lower in the minors, the less power. (Batting averages can be high in part because of higher BABIPs due to poor fielding, esp. infield.) A lot of players in low-A are either 19/20-y.o. latinos who haven’t grown into their adult bodies yet, or recent college grads who are adjusting to wood bats. (In the cold! Congratulations, young draft picks!) Power peaks late … certainly much later than the midwest league.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 15, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions
Lawrie laughs at your insinuation that it is cold in Appleton
and sends word that he will hit 50 homers this year.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
actually...
the vancouver area isn’t all that cold. More like Seattle weather than “canada” weather. For instance, google tells me it’s currently 51F in Langley BC compared to a balmy 28 in Appleton.
(I’m assuming your comment is about Lawrie being from Canada … if it’s a more general “Chuck Norris couldn’t hold Brett Lawrie’s jockstrap” sort of thing, just ignore me :).)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 15, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
Both of these, actually
It’s 25 at my house.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
maybe you should move to BC
watch the Brewers before they’re even drafted!
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 15, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions

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