FanPost

The Actual Effect of Lineup Optimization

I inputted the following lineup into the Baseball Musings Lineup Simulator. It's the lineup we used for most of last year and my best guess as to what they will start with this year.

Weeks

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Cameron

Hall

Kendall

Pitcher

I used the BCB projections for these batters except Hall, who got .315/.440.

The above lineup produces 4.791 runs per game.

When I created my lineup in the Lineup Construction post on the front page, I didn't use the lineup optimizer, but it turns out that mine is the top result in the lineup optimizer (only flipping Hart and Hall). You'll notice the differences between my lineup and morineko's in the comments of the lineup fanpost, I used a .363 OBA for Weeks instead of .342, and I am not using splits. Almost all of the top lineups use Rickie in the top spot . Every one of the best lineups uses Kendall in the ninth spot in the order and Braun in the fourth spot. 

Now for the interesting part.

Over 162 games, the practical lineup projects to score 4.791 runs per game.

Over 162 games, the optimized lineup projects to score 5.027 runs per game.

First, that amount of runs would assume that all of the players play every game, which is impossible. The suggestion by the optimizer is that changing from a traditional lineup to an optimized one could yield an increase of almost 30 runs, which I find to be impractical. But I can definitely see the benefits, and I'm starting to think that there is no excuse for not optimizing the lineup-- especially if the result could be as much as an extra win over the course of the year.

Check out the best and worst lineups for yourself.

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