On the value of Luis Pena and Nick Green
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 16, 2009 12:19 PM CST
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PrintLast week, with the addition of Nick Green off waivers from the Angels, the Brewers were forced to designate Luis Pena for assignment to clear a space on the 40-man roster, a move which led to Pena being claimed by Jack Z. and the Mariners. I haven't exactly seen a groundswell of negative reaction to the move, but I have seen a few people express disappointment over losing Pena, so I thought it warranted a deeper look at both players, to get a better feel for their value.
Pena turned 26 in January, and was signed by the Brewers out of Venezuela prior to the 2001 season. He pitched eight seasons in the Brewers' minor league system.
| Year | Age | Team(Level) | ERA | WHIP |
| 2001 | 18 | Arizona (R) | 4.63 | 1.57 |
| 2002 | 19 | Arizona (R) | 3.49 | 1.41 |
| 2003 | 20 | Beloit (A) | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| 2004 | 21 | Beloit (A) | 3.91 | 1.37 |
| 2005 | 22 | Brevard County (A+) | 4.26 | 1.32 |
| 2006 | 23 | Brevard County (A+) | 4.43 | 1.55 |
| 2007 | 24 | Brevard County (A+) and Huntsville (AA) | 2.63 | 1.04 |
| 2008 | 25 | Nashville (AAA) | 6.93 | 2.05 |
Whatever Pena found in 2007, it certainly took him long enough to locate it. Pena has been somewhat old for his level every year since around 2004. He improved slightly in his second try at low A, but regressed in his second year at high A. With the exception of 2007, he's allowed a lot of baserunners at every level. And, of course, he had a disastrous 2008 season in Nashville.
With that said, Pena throws hard, and a lot of value is put on that skill. If he finds a way to control his stuff he could be a key contributor to someone's bullpen and he's still young enough to have a nice big league career. His control isn't there yet, though, and may never be: Pena walked 47 batters in 49.1 innings in 2008, and has walked 247 in 531.2 career minor league innings (BB/9 of 4.18).
On the flip side, the Brewers were able to fill Pena's roster spot with Nick Green, a 24-year-old starter who has had the following career in the Angels' farm system:
| Year | Age | Team (Level) | IP | ERA | WHIP |
| 2004 | 19 | Provo (R+) | 51 | 3.88 | 1.47 |
| 2005 | 20 | Cedar Rapids (A) | 100.2 | 3.58 | 1.08 |
| 2006 | 21 | Rancho Cucamonga (A+) and Arkansas (AA) | 177 | 4.32 | 1.31 |
| 2007 | 22 | Arkansas (AA) | 178.1 | 3.68 | 1.10 |
| 2008 | 23 | Salt Lake City (AAA) | 159 | 5.32 | 1.45 |
Green's 2008 numbers probably deserve a slight adjustment, as Salt Lake is one of the friendlier run-scoring and home run environments in the PCL. Even so, Green was a solid performer who pitched a lot of innings while young for his level in AA in 2007, and assuming he can bounce back from a tough 2008 campaign, he could be an option to produce a fair number of league average or better innings for many years down the road.
So, what do you think? Was exchanging Pena for Green a good idea?
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Green
Reminds me of Bush, based on scouting reports. Fringe-average fastball with some funky offspeed stuff, and both get tagged for a good number of HR when they don’t locate because their stuff isn’t overpowering. I’d guess Bush is roughly Green’s ceiling.
Incidentally
this is a bit of prospect statty obsessedness, but:
1. relative to the PCL, Salt Lake isn’t that hitter-friendly. 108 run factor, 102 HR factor. Las Vegas, Albuquerque, and Tucson are all worse, and there may be others I’m forgetting.
2. however, relative to AAA as a whole, the PCL is VERY hitter-friendly. A 5.32 ERA in a neutral PCL park is much better than the same in a neutral IL park. That doesn’t mean it’s good, of course … his MLE FIP last year was 6.38, though if you give him a league-average HR rate, it comes down to 6 or so.
Also, cheese.
I used these, which I should have linked to. They had the following rating for each of the parks you mentioned. Ratings are R, H and HR, in that order:
Salt Lake 1.05 1.03 1.16
Las Vegas 1.11 1.07 1.05
Albuquerque 1.18 1.13 1.14
Tucson 0.99 1.04 0.86
But I probably shouldn’t argue with you, because you’re better at this than I am. :-)
He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.
that 1.16 SLC/HR is wacky
but yeah, those are the more current ones. I forgot the ones I have in the MLS database are from 07.
probably doesn’t make a huge difference for Green, but it does probably knock off another HR or two compared to the park adjustment on MLS.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 16, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
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