On the value of Luis Pena and Nick Green

by KLSnow on Feb 16, 2009 12:19 PM CST Comment 5 comments

Last week, with the addition of Nick Green off waivers from the Angels, the Brewers were forced to designate Luis Pena for assignment to clear a space on the 40-man roster, a move which led to Pena being claimed by Jack Z. and the Mariners. I haven't exactly seen a groundswell of negative reaction to the move, but I have seen a few people express disappointment over losing Pena, so I thought it warranted a deeper look at both players, to get a better feel for their value.

Pena turned 26 in January, and was signed by the Brewers out of Venezuela prior to the 2001 season. He pitched eight seasons in the Brewers' minor league system.

Year	Age	Team(Level)	ERA	WHIP
2001	18	Arizona (R)	4.63	1.57
2002	19	Arizona (R)	3.49	1.41
2003	20	Beloit (A)	3.90	1.53
2004	21	Beloit (A)	3.91	1.37
2005	22	Brevard County (A+)	4.26	1.32
2006	23	Brevard County (A+)	4.43	1.55
2007	24	Brevard County (A+) and Huntsville (AA)	2.63	1.04
2008	25	Nashville (AAA)	6.93	2.05

Whatever Pena found in 2007, it certainly took him long enough to locate it. Pena has been somewhat old for his level every year since around 2004. He improved slightly in his second try at low A, but regressed in his second year at high A. With the exception of 2007, he's allowed a lot of baserunners at every level. And, of course, he had a disastrous 2008 season in Nashville.

With that said, Pena throws hard, and a lot of value is put on that skill. If he finds a way to control his stuff he could be a key contributor to someone's bullpen and he's still young enough to have a nice big league career. His control isn't there yet, though, and may never be: Pena walked 47 batters in 49.1 innings in 2008, and has walked 247 in 531.2 career minor league innings (BB/9 of 4.18).

On the flip side, the Brewers were able to fill Pena's roster spot with Nick Green, a 24-year-old starter who has had the following career in the Angels' farm system:

Year	Age	Team (Level)	IP	ERA	WHIP
2004	19	Provo (R+)	51	3.88	1.47
2005	20	Cedar Rapids (A)	100.2	3.58	1.08
2006	21	Rancho Cucamonga (A+) and Arkansas (AA)	177	4.32	1.31
2007	22	Arkansas (AA)	178.1	3.68	1.10
2008	23	Salt Lake City (AAA)	159	5.32	1.45

Green's 2008 numbers probably deserve a slight adjustment, as Salt Lake is one of the friendlier run-scoring and home run environments in the PCL. Even so, Green was a solid performer who pitched a lot of innings while young for his level in AA in 2007, and assuming he can bounce back from a tough 2008 campaign, he could be an option to produce a fair number of league average or better innings for many years down the road.

So, what do you think? Was exchanging Pena for Green a good idea?

Poll

Was DFA'ing Luis Pena to pick up Nick Green the right decision?

No. Pena was too good to give up.

9 votes

No. Green peaked at AA and won't ever be a big league contributor.

7 votes

Yes. Giving up Pena is tough, but Green better filled a need and could have a better upside.

143 votes

Yes. Pena had one good year out of eight and won't amount to anything.

59 votes

It's a wash. Both these guys will benefit from a change of scenery.

45 votes

263 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Green

Reminds me of Bush, based on scouting reports. Fringe-average fastball with some funky offspeed stuff, and both get tagged for a good number of HR when they don’t locate because their stuff isn’t overpowering. I’d guess Bush is roughly Green’s ceiling.

by marty22 on Feb 16, 2009 2:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

A minor league starter with a track record of a 6:2 K/BB ratio is a nice find, especially when he’s replacing a reliever with a 9:8 K/BB ratio.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 16, 2009 3:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Incidentally

this is a bit of prospect statty obsessedness, but:

1. relative to the PCL, Salt Lake isn’t that hitter-friendly. 108 run factor, 102 HR factor. Las Vegas, Albuquerque, and Tucson are all worse, and there may be others I’m forgetting.

2. however, relative to AAA as a whole, the PCL is VERY hitter-friendly. A 5.32 ERA in a neutral PCL park is much better than the same in a neutral IL park. That doesn’t mean it’s good, of course … his MLE FIP last year was 6.38, though if you give him a league-average HR rate, it comes down to 6 or so.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 16, 2009 6:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I used these, which I should have linked to. They had the following rating for each of the parks you mentioned. Ratings are R, H and HR, in that order:

Salt Lake 1.05 1.03 1.16
Las Vegas 1.11 1.07 1.05
Albuquerque 1.18 1.13 1.14
Tucson 0.99 1.04 0.86

But I probably shouldn’t argue with you, because you’re better at this than I am. :-)

He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.

by KLSnow on Feb 16, 2009 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

that 1.16 SLC/HR is wacky

but yeah, those are the more current ones. I forgot the ones I have in the MLS database are from 07.

probably doesn’t make a huge difference for Green, but it does probably knock off another HR or two compared to the park adjustment on MLS.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 16, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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