Smart People are Optimistic; You can be Too!

Jack looks at the attempt to replace 9 wins from CC and Sheets, something most media members assume is impossible. He finds that the bullpen last year was barely above replacement level, and that an expected improvement in the bullpen and the contributions of Gallardo and Looper could easily cover those nine wins and put us right back in contention.

9 months ago Jordan M 26 comments 0 recs |

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I should note

The bullpen last year had poor peripherals, with pretty good results— so their context-neutral value is lower than the value they provided to the team, especially Torres. So saying that we gain four wins from the bullpen improving is true, but that doesn’t mean we are expected to win four more games than we did last year.

I’m writing up a piece on the offensive regression+ expected improvement for 09 that should be posted one of these weekday afternoons.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2009 2:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Nice try, dude

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Sheets and Sabathia won 24 games last year.

Replace those, buddy! Heh.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 22, 2009 2:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

24 wins by yo :)

"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck

by dux2bux on Feb 22, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

24 wins by Suppan!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 22, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

but....uh...

he won 10 last year. It would be pretty cool if he won 34…

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 22, 2009 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You heard it here first

Jeff Sackmann: Suppan will win 34 games in 2009! Yeah, baby!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 22, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If the offense can meet or exceed their Stallone projections...

…I think Supp just might have a shot.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 22, 2009 5:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I for one went to Fangraphs to investigate before I realized what you were talking about.

They unfortunately don’t have the Stallone system available. They have Oliver though, whatever that is.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2009 5:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oliver

is similar to my system, from what I’ve read. marcel + minor league data and batted ball stuff. It was devised by Brian Cartwright, who writes at statistically speaking.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 22, 2009 6:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Where do you rank PECOTA?

by HRF on Feb 22, 2009 6:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My official stathead position is that it’s fine, but it would be nice if it wasn’t so black-boxy. And I could care less for the bells and whistles of the player cards — most of the extra features (breakout rates, etc.) are either worthless or misleading, at least to me.

But frankly, I don’t care very much. Take your pick among chone, zips, and pecota, and you’ll be fine.

I liked tinkering with the data to come up with a plausible system, but I have zero desire to go from “pretty darn good” to any better than that.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 22, 2009 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would think it would work that way

You beat the challenge of making a system, and you’re probably not going to beat Sean’s (he uses batted ball data, right?) Besides, there are much more worthwhile pursuits for the good of the baseball research community.

As a younger-generation stathead, I agree about BP and PECOTA. The pay walls and the fact there are better systems and metrics freely available with methodology that’s publicly available make me rarely visit there. Occasionally, I read a link that takes me there but that’s about it.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2009 8:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What system do you find better?

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 22, 2009 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

CHONE

As you’d probably imagine, because I linked it for all the projections. It’s free and available, and it’s just a basic Marcel with minor league translations, batted ball stats, and a flurry of other adjustments for more accuracy. It’s more of a true adjusted regression instead of trying to find similar players, which tells me more about what they’ve done instead of trying to find breakouts (which does have value, of course).

I guess I don’t think PECOTA is so much better than CHONE that it’s worth the subscription, unless you’re an avid fantasy player. I understand why people like it, it’s good, but there are alternatives.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2009 8:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As an avid Fantasy player

accuracy is most important. I’m not sure without random sampling on which is the most accurate. I’ve used Pecota for years, and I’ve done very well. I’m sure others that follow the other projection systems are fine, but I have not been run astray using Pecota. Plus, I enjoy BP’s material.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 22, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The fundamental problem is that people don't understand projections

Systems like CHONE especially aren’t actually trying to tell you exactly what a guy is going to hit. Say I build a projection system for the Major Coin-Flipping League. My system projects that over 162 matchups, heads will win 81 times and tails will win 81 times. If heads wins 90, does my projection system suck? No, it’s the opposite. My projection system sucks if it projects heads will win 90, actually.

Adjusted regression projections are trying to find the mid-point of what the player has done so far with adjustments for age, past luck, and other factors. They’re the best guess of a player’s true skill level. Here’s a graphic representation and preview of my offense projection post that I think will go up Tuesday afternoon:

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nate does an analysis every year to compare the systems

and Tango has done some, too.

PECOTA is always in the running, as is ZiPS, but CHONE was best last year, iirc.

Really, there’s not a huge difference. The one potential problem with the studies comparing systems is that (I think) they generally focus on the core group of players everybody projects — so maybe 300-400 guys, rather than the 1000+ that the projection systems are forecasting. So it’s anybody’s guess who to get behind on the Wieters’s and Gamel’s of the world.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 22, 2009 9:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pecota charges you a subscription fee

so Obviously it’s better.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 22, 2009 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

you have no concept

Pecota is a revenue scorer

September 15: Not a bad little Monday

by molitorfan on Feb 23, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've been NedRolled!

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 23, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've read about it

Immediately disregard anything followed by, “whatever that is”.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 22, 2009 8:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

There was uproarious laughter flowing through my dwelling at reading that.

It’d be nice to see JJ go .297/.434 That’s something that would be a lot of fun to watch.

by HRF on Feb 22, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

by molitorfan on Feb 22, 2009 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm. the Smart People, AND me?

I see what you did there.

by Marty McSuperFly on Feb 23, 2009 1:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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