Macha: Stealing & Bunting...

by CATALYST on Feb 23, 2009 10:17 AM CST

Can one of you help me (and maybe others) out with this question?

What has Macha done historically as Manager when it comes to stealing and bunting? Does he avoid it all together? Do it as seldom as Yost did? Or are we gonna see the 2nd coming of the LA Angels this season?

I just want to know what type of offense we're gonna have this year. Please don't tell me it's a "the only way we score is by having someone hit a HR" type of offense again this year!

Thanks in advance for your help!

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Don't ask

Well, Macha managed Oakland from 2003 through 2006.

In 2003, his As finished second-to-last in the AL in steals.
In 2004, his As finished last in the AL in steals.
In 2005, his As finished last in the AL in steals…with 31. Jason Kendall (!) led the team with 8.
In 2006, his As finished 10th in the AL in steals, again led by Jason Kendall (11).

It’s hard to say that Macha hates the stolen base, though. If you’re a good manager, I would assume you try to play to your team’s strengths. If you’re loaded with Rickey Hendersons, you’re going to run; if you’re loaded with Prince Fielders, you’re not. The home-run-or-nothing approach may be less entertaining or productive, but it’s better than playing hit and run with Mike Cameron on Bill Hall.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 23, 2009 11:37 AM CST reply actions

Maybe it was the A's as an org.

I’m really hoping that he was being pressured by the A’s and Billy Beane to not steal and bunt, but that might just be my wishful thinking. Hopefully he will at least let Rickie and Corey run this season.

by ajoconnor on Feb 23, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions

Plus

We have Kendall in the lineup again.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 23, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions

Corey

As fast as Corey is, I really hope that he’s worked on his baserunning. He was the worst baserunner on the team by far last year. I think somebody referenced it in one of the FOX games when they have a player introduce the lineup.

by tcyoung on Feb 23, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions

I'm gonna have to disagree

Corey Hart- 23 SB 7 CS= 76.7 SB%
Bill Hall- 5 SB 6 CS= 45.5 SB%

Bill Hall is by far the worst baserunner

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Feb 23, 2009 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

It's more than simply stealing bases

He just got caught between bases a lot on hits. Whether they were hit by him, or if he was already on the bases. I think he was picked off a couple times as well.. that might be Braun I’m thinking of, though.

by tcyoung on Feb 23, 2009 3:26 PM CST up reply actions

I do remember a few awful base running blunders by Hart

but I more remember holding my breath every time Hall tried to steal a base

"my goodness"

by BrewHaHeather on Feb 23, 2009 4:01 PM CST up reply actions

interestingly...

according to BP (Dan Fox’s) baserunning numbers, Hart was the second most valuable baserunner on the team, second to Weeks. And that’s with negative stolen base value.

It takes some time with the glossary to understand all those acronyms, but basically, EQSBR is “runs from stolen bases and PO/CS’s” — so Corey actually had negative value there. The other EQxxx’s have to do with things like taking the extra base on singles, scoring on sac flies, etc.

Amazingly, Hart was 26th in baseball in baserunning value last year.

And as a side note: While baserunning numbers are kind of like defense in that it takes a few years to get a good read on a player’s “true talent,” they are VERY good at estimating how valuable a player was in a single year. That is — if you keep taking third on singles, you are definitely adding value; if you keep getting picked off, you are definitely costing value. Whatever the underlying talent level, Hart was pretty clearly worth a fair amount on the bases.

And while I’m talking about actual value — Weeks and Hart were 1-2 in ’07, too, with similar numbers to their ’08 totals.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 23, 2009 5:37 PM CST up reply actions

Thank you!

I don’t know where people got the idea Hart is a bad baserunner! You can’t only focus on a few times where he got caught. The reason he can occasionally get “caught in between bases” is because of his aggressive style of baserunning. Of course we remember the few bad blunders more than all of the times he took the extra base. For example, several times he scored on ground balls after the infielder threw to first, when any other Brewer would not have.

by ajoconnor on Feb 23, 2009 6:20 PM CST up reply actions

Stats aside

I recall being frustrated all season with it. maybe I’m focusing on the bad more than the good, but I’m going to stick with my idea that he’s a bad base runner. Multiple times throughout the season, I can recall saying, “what is he doing?!” right before he getting thrown out.

I’ll keep a more watchful eye this season to see if his aggressive nature pays off more than it doesn’t.

by tcyoung on Feb 24, 2009 7:17 AM CST up reply actions

"Stats aside"?

You heathen!

It's called "playing the percentages."

by hilbelink on Feb 24, 2009 8:56 AM CST up reply actions

I know, I know

I’m a numbers guy. But there’s still that side of me that loves watching baseball. Usually they agree, but there’s a constant internal battle between the two on the few things they disagree about. (The numbers side usually wins)

by tcyoung on Feb 24, 2009 9:28 AM CST up reply actions

I think there's definitely some observation bias

(and I don’t mean just with you)

when a fast guy goes from first to third on single to right, we don’t think twice about it. When a fast guy goes to second, we normally don’t think twice about it — the announcer says, “Frenchy’s got a cannon, and the Brewers respect it.” So where the value is really built up, almost nobody pays attention.

And over the course of a season, there’s more value in going 1st to 3rd more often than other guys, or scoring from third on fly outs more often than other guys, than there is value lost in doing something stupid a half dozen times.

It’s very similar to the issue with third base coaches. Somebody did a study last year that just about every 3rd base coach is too cautious. It makes sense — you send a guy to get thrown out, you look stupid, the runner looks stupid, and if it’s a big enough game, you might even lose your job. If you hold the guy, it’s gotta be really obvious he could’ve made it, or else nobody’s going to question you. But…those play-it-safe 3rd base coaches are costing their teams runs by not being more aggressive. If they were more aggressive, there would be more guys thrown out, but the aggregate result would be better.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 24, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions

I think that my observational bias stems from the fact that the times I remember him getting thrown out weren’t close calls. They were blunders where he got caught waay between bases.

I’m not so sure that the stats apply here. I’m referencing his baserunning intelligence, not his speed. The stats are mostly speed based.

by tcyoung on Feb 24, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions

the stats cover everything that happens on the bases

if he’s getting caught between bases, he’s making an out on the bases, and dan’s baserunning numbers take those into account—and penalize quite severely, since standing on second with 0 out is a hell of a lot better than sitting in the dugout with one out.

that said, the stats of course don’t take into account how stupid the player looks getting thrown out somewhere between second and third. So it’s easy to imagine someone who looks stupid making 5 outs is going to be thought of as worse than someone who looks slick making those same five outs.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 24, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions

He was picking his nose every time

by tcyoung on Feb 24, 2009 1:32 PM CST up reply actions

elaborating because I'm stubborn

The reason I feel those stats are somewhat irrelevent is because the more speed a player has, the better his EQBRR will be. He will advance more on ground balls and fly balls. He is going to produce more runs because of his speed.

My argument is that a player of his speed is even more valuable if he is more efficient on the bases. I’d like to see his numbers up around where Weeks is.

Thanks for the link btw, that’s a cool stat I’d never come across!

by tcyoung on Feb 24, 2009 1:47 PM CST up reply actions

yes, i suppose you're right...

…if he were smarter, he’d be better than good. I’m just skeptical that anybody watching the games (me as much, or more, than you) can make those macro-level assessments, especially when they are admittedly based on a few instances that stick out in memory.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 24, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions

I'm fine with pressuring him not to bunt.

He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 23, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions

Macha in the Minors

Macha managed for four seasons with Bostons AA and AAA teams.

1995 Trenton AA – Team finsished 4th in steals in a 10 team league led by Nomar Garciaparra with 35
1996 Trenton AA – Team finished 2nd in steals in a 10 team league led by Rick Holifield with 35
1997 Pawtucket AAA – Team finished 6th in steals in a 10 team league led by Jesus Tavarez with 22
1998 Pawtucket AAA – Team finished 6th in steals in a 14 team league led by Trot Nixon with 26

by Infield Fly Rule on Feb 23, 2009 1:01 PM CST reply actions

Imagine how many steals Nixon would have had

if he didn’t Trot.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 23, 2009 1:06 PM CST up reply actions

I don't expect him (Nixon) to steal much.

After all, he’s not a crook.

He’s not the worst pitcher ever, just the worst good pitcher.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 23, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions

Nixon

He did live up to his name that year by being caught 13 times.

by Infield Fly Rule on Feb 23, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions

The first time he was caught

He argued that if he gets caught stealing, it must NOT be an out.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 23, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks everyone...

Not that I wouldn’t mind having an Angels-esqe team, but I know we’ve got to have the parts to make that work.

I’ll have to go back to those As rosters, because it seemed like Macha didn’t have the speed (especially with Kendall being team leader).

I just hope Macha doesn’t do the Yost “Wait for a HR” strategy… We’ve got to be able to score other ways… We’ve just gotta.

Parking Lot Pimpin'

by CATALYST on Feb 23, 2009 2:29 PM CST reply actions

One thing

might be to maybe take some pitches, see what happens. I’m not sure what Yost said about this but I remember that after Sveum took over he said something about minding when guys were swinging at balls in the dirt—someone please correct me if my memory is paraphrasing that in the wrong way. Part of the problem, it seems, is that the Brewers’ reliance on the HR was magnified by the fact that no one was on base when they hit many of those HR. I don’t know how many solo shots they had, but one seemingly telling bit is that the hit the 5th most HR in the majors last year, but scored the 17th most runs.

In a lot of ways, as badgermaniac says below, this team is built around power, and the easiest/best/??? way to add more runs to a team with great power is to make sure more guys get on base.

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart

by baumann on Mar 1, 2009 1:25 AM CST up reply actions

Macha's rep

The scuttlebutt I have heard is that Macha wanted to play a lot of small-ball but Beane wanted nothing to do with it. That was the one of the reasons that Macha did not last in Oakland.

I am pretty much anti-small ball in general, but especially with the way this roster is constructed, I think it would be a disaster.

Our problem is not bunting guys over or stealing more, our issue is getting guys to take a few walks and get more guys on.

by badgermaniac on Feb 23, 2009 10:00 PM CST reply actions

hmm

I’m going to be skeptical that that was the cause of Macha leaving … I remember some confusion about who wanted what, but basically Macha (like Howe before him) had gotten too big to be A’s manager - a position Beane doesn’t want to pay for, and one for which Bob Geren (Beane’s best buddy) was groomed. Macha didn’t last as long as he could’ve, but he did spend four years as bench coach then four more as manager, so it’s hard to believe there was anything that bad simmering under the surface-at least not something philosophical that would’ve been there from day 1.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 23, 2009 10:23 PM CST up reply actions

trying again, with no freaking crossing out

I’m going to be skeptical that that was the cause of Macha leaving … I remember some confusion about who wanted what, but basically Macha (like Howe before him) had gotten too big to be A’s manager – a position Beane doesn’t want to pay for, and one for which Bob Geren (Beane’s best buddy) was groomed. Macha didn’t last as long as he could’ve, but he did spend four years as bench coach then four more as manager, so it’s hard to believe there was anything that bad simmering under the surface-at least not something philosophical that would’ve been there from day 1.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 23, 2009 10:23 PM CST up reply actions

How come you're the only one I ever see to have problems with the crossing out?

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Feb 24, 2009 6:14 PM CST up reply actions

I do it sometimes too

Use those damned dashes— I do that way too much— and that’s what happens.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 24, 2009 7:04 PM CST up reply actions

yep

I love me some em-dashes.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 24, 2009 9:17 PM CST up reply actions

Hart is a gambler, but with brains...

At least twice last year Hart took a calculated risk by advancing to third when he would clearly be thrown out. Both times he did so to enable the slower runner ahead of him to reach home safely by forcing the cut-off. So he was out each time at 3b, I believe, but in each case we got a run that would more have likely been gunned out at the plate. You will have to trust that I recall this correctly (I don’t even drink, so it wasn’t the Pabst talking); I called my buddy each time to rave about Hart’s choice to trade an out for a run…however, knowing how many of you out there crunch numbers, maybe it was not that great of a move…but it was exciting, interesting baseball. Especially as we relied on Yost-ball to get runs….

by One-Flap Down on Feb 24, 2009 3:04 PM CST reply actions

That's interesting

I hadn’t heard of that.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 24, 2009 4:12 PM CST up reply actions

Maybe these two games

July 8th against Colorado, Bill Hall came up with the bases loaded and two out in the 7th with the Crew up 5-3. He got a base hit to left, Weeks scored from 3rd, and Fielder scored from second before Hart was thrown out at third. The Brewers wound up winning 7-3.

July 28 against Chicago, Hart came up with one out in the 6th in a 2-2 game with Prince on 1st. Hart hit a double and was thrown out at third while Fielder scored. The Brewers wound up blowing the lead and losing 6-4. That’s the only other time he was thrown out at third on a play resulting in an RBI.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 24, 2009 4:36 PM CST up reply actions

That's the way I recall it...

Thanks for providing evidence that I am not pulling random Corey Hart base-running antics from my rear-quarters. Interesting he was saving Prince each time…the second time he “irrationally” attempted to extend a double in order to allow the large man to score.

by One-Flap Down on Feb 25, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions

By "second time" I mean the second example you provided...

by One-Flap Down on Feb 25, 2009 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

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