What's Tony Gwynn's upside?
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 26, 2009 5:30 PM CST
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PrintTony Gwynn is 26 years old and, barring some unforseen circumstances, in a month the Brewers will either have to put him on their roster or designate him for assignment. He was a second round pick in 2003, and has played six seasons in the Brewers organization.
Obviously, Gwynn becomes more interesting because of his last name. He's the son of a Hall of Famer. But the similarities between Young Tony and his father end at the last name. Tony Gwynn Sr. was a big leaguer for the first time at 22, and posted the first of his 20 consecutive seasons with an OPS+ over 100.
TGJ, on the other hand, has accumulated just 246 major league ABs over the last three seasons, and has hit .248/.300/.298 in those appearances. In the minors, Gwynn had the best season of his career in 2006, posting a .300/.360/.396 line in Nashville. In 2007, his OPS dropped from .756 to .693, and in 2008 it fell even farther, to .659. I've posted this before but it's worth noting again: Gwynn's 2008 major league equivalent was a .243/.286/.286 line.
Gwynn could probably get away with a low OPS in the major leagues if he was an elite defensive center fielder or had tremendous speed. Gwynn's speed isn't bad (20 SB, 6 CS in 2008, 137 SB and 53 CS in his minor league career), but it's not good enough to build a career around. Defensively, Minor League Splits estimates Gwynn's defensive value as 7 runs above average in center field in 2008. That's not bad, but it's not enough to make up for Gwynn's offensive struggles.
This spring, Gwynn faces competition from Chris Duffy, Jason Bourgeois and Hernan Iribarren in center field. If he can't beat them out for a spot as the fifth outfielder, he'll have to clear waivers to be sent back to the minor leagues.
Simply put, it's decision time for the Brewers. And it's decision time for you too. Vote in the poll below.
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If
“Traded to Padres, hits .300 one year due to Petco, is suddenly heralded as an all-star, and drops off to a replacement level outfielder for rest of career”
was an option, I would have voted for it.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
hey, that’s the Scott E. Podsednik career plan!
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 26, 2009 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
Boy, I hope the Brewers are able to trade him
Though I suppose he could be a marginal starter/#4 on some terrible team out there.
I’m sure the FO is pissed he’s got this impingement that’s preventing him from playing all the time during Spring Training.
Do you think
he was ever close to being traded? It seems like his numbers were never actually, you know, good. I wonder if all of the Trade TGJr Talk™ had been just wishful thinking.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I bet his name came up in trade discussions
Just not for anyone decent.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
I seem to remember him being offered for Gagne at the '07 deadline
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
right
he would’ve been part of that deal. must have been a bigger piece or two.
actually…I dug through the archives at MLB trade rumors…just a reference to a possible deal that would’ve been Gagne for TGJr straight up. Obviously the Rangers ended up with a much better deal than that, so maybe that isn’t the whole story, but the fact it was even floated tells you how far Gwynn’s stock has fallen in a relatively short period of time. (Not that he was the next Beltran even then, but a fair number of people thought he’d be something.)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 26, 2009 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
I guess
I have a hard time seeing how we would keep Gwynn over Duffy, for example, as they both seem to have the same skill set: lefties, fast, not particularly adept at getting on base (though Duffy has a bit of power to boot). At this point, anything we could get for TG would be OK by me.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Just need the right trading partner
TG Jr strikes me as exactly the kind of guy that Dusty Baker would want, and he’d likely give up a worthless base-clogger for him.
by Marty McSuperFly on Feb 26, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
so far almost 150 people have come by and chosen 1 of the top 2
but not one has commented. Could it be the nasty way they would be treated?
Speaking only for myself
I haven’t even cared enough to vote, but I did see a nice Dusty Baker joke in there. I guess I’ll do that now.
Do you honestly think people are nasty here?
by Marty McSuperFly on Feb 28, 2009 7:54 AM CST up reply actions
Probably because the first option is not very supportable
It would be like defending the view that Hernan Iribarren or Vinny Rottino will be key contributors. There’s little evidence to support the claim. If someone logically defended their view, I’m we would acknowledge it. If they just said “I think he’s going to be good”, we probably wouldn’t.
The artist formerly known as jihad.
I get it
If you don’t have the desire to marshal a convincing argument, or if you believe something in spite of evidence to the contrary, Internet meanies are being nasty to you?
I am a huge fan of Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks. I steer clear of discussions of Hall’s value, because I know there’s no evidence I can find which supports my belief that he can be a great player. It is one of my concessions to fandom that I will follow Bill Hall as an article of faith. While I don’t appreciate cheap shots thrown at him, I understand the legitimate arguments people put forth against Bill Hall, and don’t attribute unkind intentions to them.
So, I see where you’re coming from. You like a player that hasn’t accomplished much, and there isn’t much evidence to support a belief that he will be successful in the future. It doesn’t mean that others who questions his value are abusive or mean. It doesn’t even mean they don’t like Gwynn. I like Tony Gwynn, and would have liked to see him do well during Cameron’s suspension last year. Unfortunately, he got injured and wasn’t able to play, which seems to be an ongoing theme for him. Until he logs some time with success at the major league league level, it doesn’t matter how much any likes him, there’s no reason to believe he can be and everyday player.
by Marty McSuperFly on Feb 28, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I honestly like him
I agree with everything Marty responded with above. I have my personal favorites, too, but I try to be pretty neutral in player evaluation.
Tony Gwynn Jr. needs to be patient. I don’t expect any player to hit .300 in the bigs, but if he can learn to put up a .280/.340 line, yes he’d be a decent backup. If he’s going to be a .270/.320 guy, he’ll be a career minor leaguer. I want him to succeed, but I don’t think it’s logical to expect him to. I’d actually be interested in an argument defending the first option. His best Obp-ba split in the minors is about. .060, so would you expect him to hit .310/.370 as a leadoff man? And he’d have to be that or better to be a better leadoff hitter than Rickie is.
The artist formerly known as jihad.
if Gwynn goes through waivers...
he’s up for minor league free agency next offseason already, isn’t he? I voted for the 5th OF option, but really, he’s awfully close to becoming a career minors guy. Not that the Brewers should necessarily do it, but Tony Jr. would probably be quite happy to get traded for a random C level prospect right now just to get a better opportunity somewhere else.
I went for 4th outfielder
I think if he could stay healthy, he could bounce around from team to team, filling in gaps in their lineups. However, since he always seems to be injured when he gets a chance to play, it’s unlikely that he could be a regular contributor at the major league level.
by Marty McSuperFly on Feb 28, 2009 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
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