Depth Charge
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 7:25 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintLong-time readers will know that starting pitching depth is a hobby-horse of mine. I was psyched about the Brewers this time last year, in part because the starting rotation looked so strong--so deep, in fact, that we could part ways with Claudio Vargas with little or no repercussions.
I don't feel the same way about the 2009 Brewers. You probably know this, but here's what the depth chart looks like at SP:
- Yovani Gallardo
- Dave Bush
- Manny Parra
- Jeff Suppan
- Seth McClung
- Chris Capuano
- guys like Chris Narveson, Mark DiFelice, and now Chase Wright
I'm perfectly fine with the top three. It's not the best top three in the league, or even the division, but it's pretty good. McClung might turn out okay, and we all know what we'll get from Suppan--the transformation of "albatross" into a verb.
Here's another look at that top 6:
- Gallardo -- 24 IP in 2008, is about to turn 23 years old
- Bush -- earned a demotion before the all-star break last year
- Parra -- fell apart after about 150 IP last year following an injury-riddled minor league career
- Suppan -- CHONE projects him to be 1 run--RUN--above replacement
- McClung -- hasn't thrown over 110 IP since '02
- Capuano -- hasn't thrown a pitch in a year, and a May return is on the optimistic side
Now, of course, that's an unnecessarily pessimistic view. Gallardo should give us lots of innings, and Bush will be fine, if streaky. Maybe Capuano will come back and be fine, and maybe McClung will handle 150 IP like a champ.
But...even on the optimistic side, how many innings does that get us? Let's say we get 175 from Yo, 200 from Bush, 175 from Manny, 150 from Bigseth, and 125 from Cappy. That's a total of 825. Last year, our starters gave us 983 IP ... so that leaves 160 more for Suppan. I'm sure he can give us that many; I'm not sure that we want him to.
I left Suppan out of that calculation for a reason. At this point, he's basically a replacement-level pitcher, albeit a pricey one. So, even if everything breaks right, we're going to get 150+ innings of replacement-level starting pitching. If bad luck strikes, we are quite simply unprepared. It's not hard to see a situation where Parra has nagging injuries, Gallardo has to rest now and then, and Capuano never makes it back. In the worst-case scenario, we could be looking at 300 (or way more) innings of replacement-level starting pitching.
In that case, Suppan can't even pitch those innings and let the front office pretend that they've solved the problem.
The big picture
The easiest (and cheapest) way to improve a team is to find the absolute weakest point and improve that. It's a weird example, but the Orioles were so bad at shortstop last year that bringing in Cesar Izturis is likely to result in a several-win improvement. Good teams are bound to have strong and weak points, but they can't have gaping holes.
As I see it, the back end of the rotation--whether you call it the #5 starter to replace Supp or the #7 starter to replace whoever doesn't make it--is our gaping hole. Quite simply: We're not going to get 950-1,000 IP of starting pitching that is significantly above replacement level.
According to CHONE, there are currently four free agent starters available who are likely to be worth 10 runs or more (roughly one win) above replacement:
- Ben Sheets (+30, based on 25 starts)
- Randy Wolf (+12)
- Odalis Perez (+11)
- Braden Looper (+10)
There must be something seriously scary in Ben's medical reports, because there's not a team in baseball that shouldn't be after him right now. I wouldn't mind seeing him come back in some form, but I suspect that ship has long since sailed.
That leaves us with the next three. Wolf seems destined to land in LA. We kicked the tires on Looper, and apparently the money isn't there. And for some reason, nobody's talking about Odalis Perez.
The silence leads me to believe that Perez could be had for less than Looper/Garland/Wolf money -- maybe $4 or $5MM on a one-year deal, maybe even less. He would represent about as close to a lock of a one-win improvement as you can find in February (even this February, short of Manny), and he would even make the bullpen better, likely shifting McClung to relief to start the season.
Why not save money for mid-season?
If you asked the front office why they haven't pulled the trigger yet on Odalis or Looper, you'd probably be told that they're out of money, or that they're leaving some payroll space. That space, as it was last year, could be used for a mid-season pickup.
There are apparent advantages to waiting until mid-season: More players are available, and the team's needs are clearer. Actually, though, in the Brewers case, I dispute both points.
- First, some stars may be available for trade, sure, like Sabathia was last year. But nobody good is going to be available just for money.
- Second, I don't need to wait until June to know that we need more starting pitching depth. We're not going to get more than ~800 IP of better-than-replacement starting. Ain't gonna happen.
Think about it another way. If we make a deal after game #81, we'll need twice as good of a player to make the same impact. So instead of Odalis at +11, we'll need a +22 player on or around July 1st. For reference, that's a guy like Ryan Dempster or Jeremy Bonderman. There'll probably be somebody like that available, but they won't be cheap, in players or money.
And, of course, most deals aren't made on July 1st. Sabathia notwithstanding, the deadline is August 1st, leaving only one-third of the season. Thus, to get that +11, we need a +33 player. CHONE only projects 25 starters in all of baseball at that level--so, basically, we're talking about an ace. I'm guessing we don't want to give up another top prospect to get the same value we could get right now from Odalis Perez.
By now, I think you get my point. There's a glaring problem. It's probably not one we can solve with the Chase Wrights of the world. There are inexpensive, available solutions. The longer we wait to solve it, the more expensive it gets.
For heaven's sake, Doug, sign another starter.
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I wonder if it would even take $4 mil to sign Odalis
I don’t think I’ve heard his name mentioned once for any team, which is really confusing. Maybe Doug will surprise us.
I really can’t see a scenario where he would go into the season with Clung, DiFelice, and Wright as the 5th, 6th, and 7th options. Maybe we could re-trade for ZachJack!
Agreed entirely overall, though. My opinion on the Hoffman deal has changed since I found out that stopped us from looking at any starters, for now anyway.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
yeah, $4MM seems like a lot for Odalis
I checked Rotoworld — no mentions of any suitors at all this offseason. He made $850K last year, but he was coming off a much worse season. His performance was pretty similar to that of Redding’s, so maybe $2.5MM is more like it.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 9:13 PM CST up reply actions
I had a thought
on a different message board I post on in relation to Odalis Perez.
Due to all of the things you’ve stated in your original post, Jeff, I don’t think it would be unreasonable to acquire Perez for, say $4-6MM over 2 years. Perhaps even making the second year a vesting option based on GS or IP.
In any case, I’d be fully with you on this. Although when its come down to talking about why on Earth The Mustache won’t sign Odalis Perez, you sort of feel pessimistic in general.
Something else that aggravates the heck out of me is the fact that Suppan remains in the rotation. I understand that he’s got (look out, cliche phrase incoming) 12.5 million reasons to not be in the ‘pen, but come on! Is it the ’stache’s pride that gets in the way? Or is it just that he’d prefer to run a 185 innings guy out there regardless of his ERA, WHIP, HR totals and BAA?
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 4, 2009 10:17 PM CST up reply actions
He's not a bullpen pitcher
The repeated comment I’ve heard on this is that Suppan, at this stage of his career, wouldn’t be effective out of the bullpen. His arm simply can’t warm up 3 or 4 times a week, let alone pitching 2+ times / week for the duration of the season. To get any value out of him, they need him at the back of the starting rotation.
That is a perfect situation, then
put him in the bullpen and never let him touch a ball in a game situation.
That seems to take care of the issue I have with him. Which is…him pitching.
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 5, 2009 8:47 AM CST up reply actions
I'm usually not one to defer to the front office types, but
just to play devil’s advocate (or maybe not?) – while it’s easy to point to Ben’s medical history to explain the lack of suitors for his services, why aren’t you and Jeff making the same allowance for the lack of interest in Perez? Maybe there’s a less obvious red flag for him, too (not necessarily medical), one that makes the various FO’s shy away from signing him.
always possible
but I can’t remember hearing about anything, at least for the last couple of years. It shouldn’t be health, since he’s made 26+ starts in six of the last seven years, though his ip total was pretty weak for 30 starts last year. I vaguely recall some conditioning issues, or maybe people thought he was curiously slow to rehab, or something, in his last couple years with the Dodgers.
with ben, you have various teams looking into it, having internal discussions, and then nothing. with odalis, you have…nothing. This is a guy who, in the NL, is pretty darn close to a career 100 ERA+. (Most of his worst performances came for KC.)
and anyway, as you probably don’t need me to tell you, it’s not like I’m obsessed with Odalis or anything …the same argument can be made about Looper, only he’d cost another mil or two.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 9:31 PM CST up reply actions
Will it make enough of a difference, though?
If the Brewers add Odalis Perez, is that 1 win over “guys like Chris Narveson, Mark DiFelice, and now Chase Wright?” 2 wins? 3 wins? Even if its 3 wins, are the Brewers within 3 wins of the Cubs or Cardinals? I’m still not convinced adding a #4 or #5 starter to push McClung into the bullpen is going to push them into the playoffs.
If the Brewers’ chances to make the postseason are slim even with Odalis Perez, then why shouldn’t Mark A pocket a few million bucks this year and hope Cameron’s dumped salary makes enough salary room for an Odalis Perez next season?
You can make the case that we're out of it, but...
…if that’s true, we have a whole bunch of other complaints to make to the FO. If we’re not playing for ’09, why spend $6MM on Hoffman? Why not salary-dump Cameron?
The moves so far have suggested we’re in it to win it. But at this point, it seems kind of half-assed, which is the one thing that is completely unacceptable for a team with a mid-market payroll.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 9:15 PM CST up reply actions
If we’re not playing for ’09, why spend $6MM on Hoffman?
It was a one year deal. And if the rotation exceeds expectations—and thus the team—it’s another arm to keep them more competitive late in games. It doesn’t take away at all from ’10.
Why not salary-dump Cameron?
He’s a commodity. He’s essentially a four win player that, if they can’t spin him now for young pitching, can be spun later in the season. A four win player for one year, ten million makes a ton of sense. Lot of value in that contract.
The moves so far have suggested we’re in it to win it.
I disagree with Cameron, Swindle et al. Those were all players that could be had for less than their actual worth. For Hoffman… yeah, I agree to a point that if they’re really punting they shouldn’t have made that move, but a) in the event they exceed expectations it’s bullpen depth but more importantly b) it’s still only a one year commitment.
by HRF on Feb 4, 2009 9:50 PM CST up reply actions
I can quote you too :)
Those were all players that could be had for less than their actual worth.
I agree. So is Odalis Perez. Why not sign him? (The same argument applies to Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu and just about every free agent still out there, though I realize it would make less sense to stockpile corner outfielders we don’t have playing time for.)
It was a one year deal. And if the rotation exceeds expectations—and thus the team—it’s another arm to keep them more competitive late in games. It doesn’t take away at all from ’10.
Whether it takes away from ‘10 isn’t the point. The fact that it’s a one-year deal just strengthens the point that it’s a “we’re in it to win it” deal. It doesn’t take away from ‘10 … unless we have a crappy closer in ’10 because we didn’t sign Fuentes when we had the chance. (Not saying I would’ve supported that, but…) We signed a guy for no less than his value, and probably a bit more, and all of his value to us is limited to what he offers in ’09.
A failure to sign another starter tells me that the Brewers are set on being an 83- or 84-win team with the off chance of making the playoffs—something that will probably end up costing more money, plus prospects, in some midseason acquisition. That sounds to me like we’re turning into the Blue Jays.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
I agree. So is Odalis Perez. Why not sign him? (The same argument applies to Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu and just about every free agent still out there, though I realize it would make less sense to stockpile corner outfielders we don’t have playing time for.)
Didn’t they just say they were out of money?
Whether it takes away from ‘10 isn’t the point. The fact that it’s a one-year deal just strengthens the point that it’s a "we’re in it to win it" deal. It doesn’t take away from ‘10 … unless we have a crappy closer in ’10 because we didn’t sign Fuentes when we had the chance. (Not saying I would’ve supported that, but…) We signed a guy for no less than his value, and probably a bit more, and all of his value to us is limited to what he offers in ’09.
What other player besides TH would fit that guildeline of the “in it to win it”, though? It seems like you’re judging the intentions solely on the TH signing, when there’s a far simpler alternative—it wasn’t a great move.
A failure to sign another starter tells me that the Brewers are set on being an 83- or 84-win team with the off chance of making the playoffs
Agreed 100%.
—something that will probably end up costing more money, plus prospects, in some midseason acquisition. That sounds to me like we’re turning into the Blue Jays.
I think their offseason has looked like, “Do nothing to screw the chances from ‘10 until Braun’s contract expires”, so I’m not as worried as you that they’ll overachieve but then do stupid something like trading Escobar or Gamel for a rental.
"Didn’t they just say they were out of money?"
Yeah, but we know what that means. We’re below the season-end payroll last year, and I’d bet you anything there’s $5MM left in the tank for a midseason acquisition.
What other player besides TH would fit that guildeline of the "in it to win it", though?
There haven’t been a lot of acquisitions, so there isn’t a lot to go on. But in this market, essentially signing Cam to $10MM/1yr is that kind of move. (I agree he’s worth it, but it would appear the Yankees did not, for whatever that’s worth.) Aside from starting pitching, there weren’t a lot of moves to make to the ’08 Brewers.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 10:47 PM CST up reply actions
If I was given the choice of, “Spend five now” versus “trade prospects, end up spending the initial five anyways”, I’d of course pick the former. If it’s not the former, I hope it’s neither.
It is curious why the Yankees (at least publically) undervalued Cameron. Well, maybe not, thinking four years of Hughes is worth more than one year of Cameron—which I’d agree to. But Cameron makes that team three wins better just be getting in a uniform. It’s… curious.
Wow
I didn’t expect to inspire a little Sackmann/HRF slugfest and a debate between two of the best minds around here is quite enjoyable.
fwiw, I believe the 83-84 win concept. If they can still put up 45-46 wins at home, it should keep butts in the seats. If the fans aren’t coming out anymore, they can ship off Cameron and possibly Hoffman at the trade deadline to save themselves $3-6 MM.
I don’t mean this is a grumbly sort of way, but from a profitability standpoint I see this as a very good offseason for the Brewers. They’ve increased advertising revenue, lowered payroll and should be able to keep attendance fairly stable from last year with only an 83-win team. In the end, the team is still an investment and from the sound of things, Mark A didn’t get a stellar ROI last year.
Has anyone done a tongue-in-check off-season analysis in terms of 2009 profitability?
whoops, hold on
Try this one.
The other was a comparison of 06/07, this link is 2008. You can see the Brewers made less by about $3MM in EBIT than in 07.
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 5, 2009 8:57 AM CST up reply actions
On another note
As a card-carrying member of the Mike Mark DiFelice fanclub, I’m certainly hopeful to see some above-replacement level innings from him if he’s pressed into starting duty.
I think it would be awesome to just give him a spot in the rotation
What’s the worst that could happen?
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
that depends :)
if you give him Suppan’s spot, I’d say it has a pretty good shot of working out :).
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 9:45 PM CST up reply actions
Just out of curiousity
What is the average ip totals from starting pitchers around the league? I think I briefly tried to find such a stat back when we were doing the pitchers projections, but I didn’t seem to have much luck. The reason I ask is should we expect more or less innings from our starters under Macha as compared to what Yost commanded and also without the two-headed beast of Sheets and CC throwing complete games there will be more innings allocated to the bullpen to begin with.
average 08 NL team: 932 IP
So the Brewers were well above average — largely thanks to Ben and CC. I didn’t realize how far above average we were — 950 seems like the high end of what we can expect this year.
In general (and this is probably obvious) you want your starters to go deep, because the more innings you have to get out of your pen, the more innings you get from the bad part of your pen. The difference between average of 932 and Brewers total of 983 is 50 more innings from guys like Dillard or Tavarez (remember we had him?!) or pushing guys like Gagne harder.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 9:54 PM CST up reply actions
wow
I didn’t expect that big of a difference, mostly because I figured Suppan and Parra would counteract the Sheets/CC effect. Seeing as you seem to have a handle on the data, is there a way to compare what Yost generally got from his starters over the last few years compared to Macha? It’s going to be weird learning the tendencies of a new manager, Macha is probably going to look like a friggin’ genius following Yost.
by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 4, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
I'm guessing it depends a lot more on the pitchers than the manager
Macha:
06: 986
05: 1002
04: 1031
03: 1018
Yost:
07: 933
06: 963
05: 992
04: 921
03: 930
Keep in mind Macha was running Zito, Haren, Blanton, and earlier on Mulder and Hudson out there. So I wouldn’t read anything into these. And the AL averages are a bit higher because of the DH, so fewer shortened outings due to PHs.
BTW, you can get team & league starting pitching innings from the bb-ref splits pages.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions
Reading into it anyway
So I wouldn’t read anything into these.
Well, here’s what I read into it. He had Zito, Haren, Blanton, Mulder, and Hudson when they were young studs, and he wasn’t afraid to work them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some longer outings from Gallardo and Parra.
damn
I just looked up the exact numbers for all five guys, then I accidentally clicked a bookmark and left the page.
Summary: Zito/Hudson/Mulder were all at 200+ IP/year before Macha started manager. Blanton and Haren both arrived in 05, threw about 200 IP, but had been throwing 175ish for each of the previous two seasons either in the minors or splitting time across levels.
So…doesn’t mean you’re wrong, esp. as pertains to Parra, but those are guys who any manager in their right mind would let throw lots of innings.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 4, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting
I was going to look that up after posting, but then I dropped something on my surge protector’s switch, turning it off. Seems like we had similar mishaps at similar times. SOMEONE DOESN"T WANT US KNOWING THIS INFORMATION!
I kinda of agree that Narveson, Difeliece or Wright may end up being just as good as a Odalis Perez pitcher and thus I’d like to see the Brewers save their cash there. However, I do think to compete for the playoff the Brewers need a starting pitching upgrade. I am a big propoent of taking a chance on someone like Mark Mulder – an injury guy who will have to take a low risk incentive laden deal, but could be a big plus (+22ish Dempster-Bonderman type stuff) if he can regain some of his form.
At this point that is the only attractive option to me. I think we should see what our young guys can do, maybe they’ll surprise us, but I dont think that we will see a huge difference between DeFelice or Suppan and Odalis Perez or Braden Looper. We might see a big difference between Suppan or DeFelice and Mulder or even Kris Benson.
One thing you neglected Jeff
If the sign Odalis, and he performs as expected but the team falters you can trade him for more prospects. So the signing cost turns out to be either cash less prospects or cash less successful season, instead of the cash plus prospects it will cost for a mid-season pickup.
In Season Trade
I used to be in favor of letting the weak market run dry and making a move in-season if somebody comes available, much like the CC move, just on a lower (talent-wise) level. But the more I think about it, the less it makes sense. Say we are contenders at the ASB, and it really looks like adding a SP will put us over the top.
Now, who are we going to go after? If we use last year’s model, we go after somebody with an expiring contract. a quick look at Cot’s 2010 Free Agent List tells us that the top pitchers are on the Phillies, Angels, and Cubs. Barring a tragic plane crash, none of those teams will be sellers.
There are, however, a few that could be left over. If the A’s don’t get off to a hot start, they could be looking to sell Duchscherer. Washburn, Bedard, and Batista could be available from Z. And maybe Backe would be trade bait from Houston. Perhaps one of these guys could be available for a reasonable price. Z knows too much about our farm system, so I couldn’t imagine us getting the better end of that deal.
So what if we go with a new plan? Let’s try to bring in somebody with a few years left on his contract, say, Matt Cain. A player with multiple years on his contract is going to come with a hefty price. We would either have to give up a bat with multiple years remaining, or several high level prospects. We will not give up Fielder midseason if we are in the playoff chase, so the only real situation I can imagine us making a trade for a SP with multiple years of control is if we trade either Gamel or Escobar. And the only way I can picture that happening is if we sign JJ long term early on this season.
I’m really interested to see who or what Doug has in mind when he says somebody might become available. I can’t imagine he doesnt’ have a certain type of move, or a certain group of players in mind when he says that.
And, of course, most deals aren’t made on July 1st. Sabathia notwithstanding, the deadline is August 1st, leaving only one-third of the season. Thus, to get that +11, we need a +33 player.
This makes me think of how Sabathia was +53 runs in his time with the Brewers. That is just ridiculously awesome. Not a +53 player, but +53 with the Brewers.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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