Christina Kahrl's idea to salvage the Crew's off-season

by Hyatt on Feb 5, 2009 8:36 PM CST Comment 41 comments

Doug Melvin wasn't afraid to go for broke trading for CC Sabathia last season, but after striking out on keeping the hefty lefty, why not revisit that route, leverage the organization's collection of premium prospects, and make a play for Jake Peavy? While the Padres power pitcher's no-trade clause presents a stumbling block to be worked around in negotiations, there is no other ace worthy of the name left for the taking. Milwaukee's farm system is still relatively loaded and has ready or nearly-ready talents to shop around, so offering the prospect-hungry Pads a package fronted by shortstop Alcides Escobar, catcher Jonathan Lucroy, and young flame-throwing right-hander Jeremy Jeffress might be sweet enough swag to get the divorce-devastated Pad people to make a move. If that doesn't work, bartering with packages that include slugger Mat Gamel (whose position is TBNL) could do the trick.—Christina Kahrl

You know, at this point, I'm game.

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I thought the Padres had a new owner

One that isn’t divorce-devastated.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 5, 2009 9:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

they do

but they’re still cutting payroll this year. I think somebody may still have to be traded to get the number down far enough.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 5, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s up to the player to wave the clause isn’t it? Even if not, I am not trading our best CURRENT catching prospect in Lucroy, with our top prospect in the field, and on the mound. They may not be ‘proven’ but if they come round they’ll cost less and do more in more ways that one out of every five games. Plus, you take Peavy out of a pitcher park into our stadium, with how his numbers have started moving up a bit, he could very well be like David Bush.

by Lavender on Feb 5, 2009 9:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i completely agree

I am not trading our best CURRENT catching prospect in Lucroy, with our top prospect in the field, and on the mound. They may not be ‘proven’ but if they come round they’ll cost less and do more in more ways than one out of every five games.

I untuck my shirt!

by Michael M on Feb 5, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate deals like this

Not only do you give up so many of your good prospects, but then you’re shelling out an average of $17.5 million for each of the next 4 seasons for Peavy. It’s easier to wrap my head around giving up good prospects OR spending boatloads of cash, but not both in the same deal.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 6, 2009 7:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m too in love with Jeffress and Escobar to comment coherently. If it was Gamel, Lucroy and Jeffress, I might be able to process it better.

by HRF on Feb 5, 2009 9:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

And, to clarify, I’d still go, lolwut in response.

by HRF on Feb 5, 2009 11:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

by Lavender on Feb 5, 2009 11:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

by HRF on Feb 6, 2009 12:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We couldn't afford this

As our young major leagers’ salaries continue to rise, we’re going to need Escobar, Gamel, and Lucroy to balance out the salaries. Our payroll would be too large to afford Peavy.

by tcyoung on Feb 5, 2009 9:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

My plan to salvage the Brewers offseason:

Tell DM to start shouting “Do Over! Do Over!”

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 5, 2009 10:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

No way

Trading the three of them would be franchise suicide for the next 5 years and probably longer unless we’d be able to unload Peavy too before that $24 million last year of his deal for major league ready talent. We need Jeffress, Escobar, and Lucroy to offset salaries (thank you tcyoung) and provide serious talent. Jeffress has the potential to be an ace…or closer in the mold of papelbon with the kind of heat he brings from the mound. We all know Escobar is fantasic defensively, and Lucroy is our best all-around catching prospect. If we traded them, we wouldn’t have another large wave of incoming young talent for 5 more years…and that is what has taken us to where we are now…on the edge of the playoffs

by Brewcityhoya13 on Feb 5, 2009 11:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The second they think Jeffress can’t be a starter, they should trade him to a team that does.

by HRF on Feb 5, 2009 11:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Vitters, Marshall, Pie, and Cedeno= Escobar, Lucroy, and Jeffress. I’m sure we’d seriously consider this if the Cubs offered us those four for our three.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 6, 2009 9:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

the deal hasn't been done

probably because the padres want more. And I’m also guessing they want more pitching in return.

Although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres do it with those players just out of desperation to dump salary.

by tcyoung on Feb 6, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I think it's ridiculous to say we'd have to give up 3 of our top 4 prospects

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 6, 2009 9:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ridiculous from our standpoint

I wonder what they would actually ask for from the Brewers.

If those 4 cubs aren’t enough, it’s not completely out of the realm of reasonable thinking to ask for 3 high level prospects for a Cy Young winner with 3 (4) years of control. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to give that up, but the Padres could make the argument that 3 top prospects is a fair price.

by tcyoung on Feb 6, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Peavy.

But I would only really want to give up one of those three for him, giving them other players like Cole Gillespie. Though it’s pretty unrealistic for the Padres to do that, I’m sure.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Feb 6, 2009 12:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think

Christina Kahrl should totally go out with Laynce Nix.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 6, 2009 12:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

dude

you know Christina used to be a man right?

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 6, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you saying Laynce is gay?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 6, 2009 11:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Before Armstrong came around, La(y)nce was a name that indicated a little extra sugar in the kool-aid

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 7, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Might as well ship TGJ over there too.

Probably since the Padres are the only team still salivating over him.

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Feb 6, 2009 5:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's only a matter of time.

The thing is, he’ll probably do pretty decent in that park— the extra outfield space will probably get his batting average to a point where he has a better than league average OBP. Then THE FURIOUS WEDGE will tell us all that we suck because look how good TGJ is doing.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 6, 2009 6:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be one of the worst trades in history. Maybe look good this years, but two years from now when Peavy’s on the downside of this career a whole generation of top prospects is gone with padres we’d be sorry.

Anyone really think we can win it all this year if we simply add Peavy. Thats the only way the trade would be worth it.

by JayzTazay on Feb 7, 2009 9:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

downside of his career?

he’s 27 now, turning 28 this summer. He’ll be 31 by the end of his contract, 32 if we pick up the option.

by tcyoung on Feb 7, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that it would

but we are looking at a very uncertain future after this year, even with “top prospects” in tact. Jeffress is the only front-line-potential pitcher we have in the minors right now, and he’s at least two years away. Gamel is probably going to end up replacing Prince at 1B, will probably not be as good as Prince, and will still be the only lefty bat. Next year, we’ll need to do something about CF, and while Gillespie looks promising, his line at Hunstville last year translates to a MLE .686 OPS. What happens with 3B? Taylor Green? No one seems to like him. What happens with the rotation? Do we have the money to go after a guy like John Lackey next year? Do we want to? Take a chance with a Bedard/Harden type?

Granted, this is all very pessimistic, and with some money to work with after Cammy, Hoffman, and (eventually) Hall and Suppan off the books (and probably Prince, too), I should probably have more faith in Doug and Gord to fill in the gaps in the next couple of years and keep us in contention. At the same time, knowing that we’ll have contracts like Hall’s and Suppan’s off the book at the same time that Peavy’s contract gets more expensive, it could make some sense to consider this trade, depending on who we’d have to give up.

I don’t see why Lucroy is that much better a prospect than Salome at this point (I’m assuming it has to do with defense and athleticism, which of course is important at C), but with Lawrie as one best overall prospects still there, Salome could keep the position warm. Jeffress would be hard to give up, for sure, but wouldn’t people have said that about Mark Rogers a few years back? Would the Padres take a guy like Corey Hart in the deal? What about Hardy, if we like Escobar better?

I’d probably stand pat with this, like most people here. I just think that it could be an interesting dilemma depending on who the Padres would demand.

"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart

by baumann on Feb 7, 2009 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Couple of prospect things

- If Gamel is eventually at first, his production depends a lot on his defense. If he’s well above average on D, he’d balance out with Prince this year. When Prince mashes like in ‘07, Gamel can’t really match up.

- Gillespie is pretty much limited to left field. Lorenzo Cain is proabably your man for CF in 2010.

- “No one seems to like Taylor Green” is more like he’s really overlooked by the national prospect guys. He gets to play in Huntsville this year, he’s had excellent power and patience, and he can actually play defense. I’d bet he’s a top 5 Brewer prospect all over by the end of the year.

- The Lucroy/Salome thing is mostly about defense, but there are other things involved as well. Lucroy has exhibited better patience at the plate than Salome, and he played in Brevard, which just kills righty power.

The problem here isn’t giving up say Jeffress and Lucroy or something, but when you add in Esco that’s 3 of our top 4 or at least 5 prospects. If you’re giving that up for a pitcher of Peavy’s caliber, he better be relatively cheap or be so extremely good there’s no doubts about him. I don’t think Peavy meets either.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 7, 2009 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still hopeful for Green myself....

… but if he’s a top 5 Brewer prospect by the end of the year, isn’t that more likely to be because a couple of guys will have played their way into the bigs between now and then? I do wish Green were a year further along. It would be nice to solve the 3b problem in 2010 instead of 2011, and I agree that Gamel is destined for 1st.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 7, 2009 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, he'll probably be in the same situation Gamel is now in the 2010 pre-season

Good point about graduating players. I guess a better way to put it would be, I think he’s going to be considered nearly as good of a prospect as Gamel is right now, next offseason.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 7, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What kind of breakout are you expecting/hoping for?

by HRF on Feb 7, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel hit:

.299/.371/.474 in Brevard
.329/.395/.537 in Hunstville

Green hit:

.291/.387/.447 in Brevard

If Green puts up a similar line at AA next year, he’s going to get a lot of attention— especially when you consider his defense. He was slightly better than Gamel in Brevard, and he actually plays D. The projection from me is that he has a similar year at a higher level, and is therefore regarded simiarly to how we regard Gamel right now.

I mean, even if he hits .270, his patience is going to get him a .370 OBP. And his power has improved every year. So if what I’ve described already is what I’m hoping for/expecting, there’s an outside chance that he really breaks out and slugs .480 in addition to his excellent contact and patience.

It’s also interesting to note that Mat’s line drive rate went from 16 in Brevard to 20 in Huntsville, Taylor was at 20 in Brevard. For comparison, Green is a year younger than Gamel, so he’s not getting an advantage that way.

I remember Gamel being talked about last offseason very similarly to how we talk about Green now.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 7, 2009 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I should clarify

By “If Green puts up a similar line”, I mean to his ‘08 at Brevard, not Gamel’s ‘08 at Huntsville, that’s unrealistic. If he hits .290/.390/.440 in Hunstville, though, with slightly above-average defense— that’s the breakout I’m hoping for/expecting.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 7, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I can dig it.

by HRF on Feb 7, 2009 7:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Heck...

… I’d be happy with the .270/.370/.440 if he’s above average defensively.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 7, 2009 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the thought that next offseason Green will be in a similar situation as Gamel is this offseason. If you compare Green’s numbers with Gamel’s when he was playing at the same level, they are surprisingly similar. I think those number similarities are what give several of us around here the hope that Green can follow a similar progression that Gamel has.

by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 7, 2009 7:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks.

i tend to agree about Peavy, jihad. it’s pretty clear he’s not going to be cheap in terms of prospects or salary, and that’s a horrible combo for a team like us.

also, i really like Green, but was kind of wondering why the community prospect rankings placed him so low. the jump to AA will be very telling, indeed. we’re stuck with Hall until 2011, but hopefully Green steps in then.

am i wrong to not be very excited about either Lorenzo Cain or Gillespie (especially in LF)? seems like Cain might be passable in CF by 2011, but is he going to provide the defense or batting line to be a starter on a contender? he did jump two levels in 2008, so we should take note of that, but he wasn’t particularly impressive at any level, and seems to be a better defender in RF, merely average in CF.

by baumann on Feb 8, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It depends on the defense...

TotalZone likes him. A lot. He’s been well above average in every situation, center and right. I’ve liked him a lot more since I found that out. To be a decent centerfielder, you don’t have to hit much if you’re a +5ish defender, which it looks like he is.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 8, 2009 12:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Hall shipped out next off-season if he's still sub-mediocre.

Sure, we’re not going to get much for him in that case, but I figure there’s gotta be a team that will take him for his defense when he only has one year left on his contract, and the Brewers chip in some money.

by Zeyes on Feb 9, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs