Maybe the Brewers should sign Ben Sheets anyway

by roguejim on Feb 8, 2009 1:55 PM CST Comment 17 comments

So it looks like Sheets will have surgery on his flexor tendon, and will likely be out until August. I'm guessing he's not likely to sign with any team before June (when the draft is), given that the team he signs with won't benefit from his pitching services until August, or September, or 2010, and it would likely cost the signing team a 1st-round draft pick to boot.

I wonder if we could, or should, sign Sheets to a one-year deal anyway.

For one, given the lack of other offers, even a tiny deal is better than what he's going to get anywhere else.
For two, there's not a bad chance that he could rehab his arm just in time for a playoff race. Says Rotoworld: "It's not a particularly difficult surgery to come back from."
For three, I'm sure it'd be seen as a nice thing to do for someone who has been a Brewer for his whole career.
And for four...remember the Elias Type A/Type B player rankings? They're based over two seasons. Now, I have no idea how the formulas take into account time on the DL, but give his strong 2008, it opens the possibility of our getting compensation for him if he were to leave the Brewers next season (if not as a Type A FA, then perhaps as a Type B).

Again, I'm not sure how the rankings work exactly. I believe that if a batter doesn't have enough ABs to qualify for various offensive rankings, they assume he goes 0 for as many ABs are needed and then calculate; if they do the same here, and assume that Sheets is going to get shelled for the first 4 months of 2009, then maybe this isn't such a good idea. :) And even if he does come back, there's the question of how good he'll be. But if a solid 6 weeks of the season were enough to warrant one or two draft picks in 2010, it might be worth the risk.

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not necessarily a bad idea

especially since we might be on the hook for the cost of his surgery. (The silence on this issue speaks volumes, I think).

Can we sign him for the league minimum (or some other really low number), plus incentives if he’s able to pitch in August/September?

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Feb 8, 2009 2:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love this idea

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Feb 8, 2009 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

what about an option for 2010

by tcyoung on Feb 8, 2009 2:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Things we know

- no one except us will sign him until after the draft, because they would have to give up the pick then
- after the draft, anyone can sign him

If he holds out and rehabs on his own, I imagine he could get a decent deal halfway through the year from a contender looking for an arm— maybe $3-4ish million for the last half of the year if he’s proven he’s healthy.

What I would do if I was Doug is be honest with him— tell him there’s no real reason for him to sign now, because there will be suitors later. I’d propose a 1 year deal worth a little under $1 million with a possibility of like 3 mil more in incentives based on about 40, 60, 80, and 100 innings. That gives him some stability to cover him even if he can’t pitch. It also gives him a reason to accept the deal now instead of waiting until after the draft. Of course, you’d have to wait until after the actual surgery to make sure it comes out OK. The other benefit for Ben is that he gets to train with an organization instead of on his own.

The compensation issue is interesting. I’m pretty sure a position player who misses an entire year just gets the previous year prorated out to the time they missed. I don’t know how it works if you play half a year. But if Sheets were to come back and get 60 innings with a 4 ERA, I’d think he’d qualify for Type A, especially considering that next year’s free agent crop looks pretty weak.

Here’s what my plan boils down to: At best, the Brewers pay $4 million for 60-70 innings of sub-4 ERA starting pitching in August in September, presumably helping us win a playoff spot. At worst, Ben’s has a setback and is out the entire year and we’re out about $1 million and Ben leaves, but we get Type A compensation next offseason (I think). Ben takes the deal now because he knows that even if he isn’t able to pitch, he still makes a little money.

Someone needs to clear up this Elias issue, though. What if Ben throws 60 innings, or doesn’t pitch at all, and how would that affect his Elias ranking next year if he were signed by the Brewers in each situation (if he doesn’t sign anywhere, he wouldn’t be compensated for next offseason). TheJay, I turn to you.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 8, 2009 3:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Someone should contact the guy who figured out the formula

He’d know about the disabled list adjustments and so on…

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 8, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It confuses me, but...

He talks about DL adjustments here.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 8, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If I understand it correctly...

up to 60 days of DL time, a player will get his actual counting stats prorated out to the full two-year period (364 days), as if he put up the same (rate) stats during the missing time as well. If missing more than 60 days, the prorating factor falls degressively short of the full factor, i.e.

60 days: +19.7% (100% of full adjustment, 364 days equivalent production, 100% of full two-season length)
75 days: +20.8% (80, 349 days, 95.9)
90 days: +21.9% (66.7, 334 days, 91.8)
120 days: +24.6% (50, 304 days, 83.5)
150 days: +28.0% (40, 274 days, 75.3)
180 days: +32.6% (33.3, 244 days, 67.0)

So effectively the player gets playing-time credit for his first 60 DL days, none for all further days. If Sheets misses about 150 days (including the DL time in 2008), and pitches to his averaged 2007/2008 stats in the last two months or so of the 2009 season, he’d be getting an Elias rating about three quarters (274/364) of his current one. Or possibly even a bit more…did Sheets miss more than 60 days combined in 2007/2008 so that even the current rating is a bit depressed?

At least that’s what I’m taking away from those formulas… FWIW, 75% of his current value would have left Sheets right at the border between Type B and no compensation this season (Sheets 79.038 → ~ 59.3, last Type B: Todd Wellemeyer 59.364).

by Zeyes on Feb 9, 2009 8:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm, on second thought...

After reading some more of that Tiger’s Thoughts guy, and given the list of categories posted by TheJay below (4 counting, 2 rate)…I’m not so sure what the ultimate value percentage would be, after all – I didn’t realize that the overall rating is based on ordinal rankings for the categories.

Obviously the rate stats aren’t affected by playing time considerations, but the counting stats effect is much harder to figure out…75% of the full value might drop you much less or much further than to 75% of your old ordinal ranking (which would e.g. be going from 21st out of 100 to 41st, = from 80 ranking points to 60), depending on how the actual values are distributed.

by Zeyes on Feb 9, 2009 8:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A quibble about wording

But if Sheets were to come back and get 60 innings with a 4 ERA, I’d think he’d qualify for Type A, especially considering that next year’s free agent crop looks pretty weak.

It doesn’t matter how next year’s free agent crop looks. The Elias rankings compare everyone in the majors to each other, regardless of whether or not they’re going to be free agents. So Sheets would have to be in the top 20% of pitchers overall to be a Type A free agent, not just the top 20% of soon-to-be free agents. That’s why the NL’s top ranked free agent catcher, Paul Lo Duca, was only a Type B guy — there were a bunch of non-free agent catchers better than him.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 8, 2009 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't catch that, and it makes sense

Keith Law said this in an article a few years ago:

Cumulative statistics may be adjusted for players who spent time on the disabled list, restoring stats for up to 60 days of missed playing time.

It looks like Elias does take rate stats like ERA, though. So I think Ben would take a hit on strikeouts and innings pitched (if that’s a stat) but not on ERA.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 8, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Here are the categories for each position. The ones relevant to Sheets:

4. SP: Total Games (Games Started + 0.5*Games Relieved), IP, Wins, Winning Pct., ERA, K’s
5. RP: Total Games (Games Relieved +2*Games Started), IP**, Wins + Saves, IP/H, K/BB, ERA

**Innings Pitched are given just 75% of the weight of the other relief categories.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 8, 2009 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sad that a big part of that formula is still wins/winning %

It’s even sadder that wins have anything to do for the relievers formula.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Feb 8, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The defenders tag needs to be used more often.

Least athletic player in professional sports!

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Feb 9, 2009 12:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

One time Sheets came up in the Menards Big Inning

and they needed a triple, there were two outs. That is what Jim Powell said about the situation.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Feb 9, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll miss you, Jim.

Although my personal favorite Brewers announcing moment will be after the girl in Atlanta finished singing the national anthem terribly, and then Uecker says “Well, I hope she’s feeling better soon.”

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Feb 9, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Two years/$13 mil

Give him $1 million+incentives this year, with a club option that vests if he pitches 40+ innings for $12 mil in 2010. Between Hoffman and Cameron they have more than that coming off the books next year. Get it done, DM.

by Getting Yosted on Feb 9, 2009 11:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Umm Yes

I would do the incentive ladden deal like those mentioned above. League minimum for this year with bonuses for innings pitched and a vesting option at a respectable dollar figure for next year.

by Saberilliterate on Feb 10, 2009 11:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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