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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while putting your mustache on for the day.

On the field, Tuesday was an off day for most Brewers. Seth McClung threw three innings in a minor league game to stay on schedule, with R.J. Swindle and Mat Gamel joining him in minor league camp for the day. McClung is, at least for the moment, part of the starting rotation that USA Today says will be the key to the Brewers' season.

Whether you like or dislike Rickie Weeks, it's encouraging to see stories like this one, where the coaching staff is working with him to correct his flaws. Sounds like Dale Sveum is working on several aspects of his related to his batting stance and swing, and Willie Randolph has taken on the task of improving his defense.

While Weeks learns to play one position, Adam McCalvy takes a look at some of the Brewers in camp who can play more than one, and how their versatility helps and hinders their careers. View From Bernie's Chalet thinks Chris Duffy, Brad Nelson and Casey McGehee will take the last bench spots, with Jorge Julio, Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice picking up the final bullpen spots. That would leave Mike Lamb, Trot Nixon, Tim Dillard, R.J. Swindle and Eduardo Morlan, among others, off the roster.

Speaking of DiFelice, both he and Vinny Rottino should be back in camp soon as Team Italy was eliminated from the WBC yesterday. Rottino picked up a double in the ninth in his only at bat. The big news of the day, however, was The Netherlands' 2-1, 11 inning win over the Dominican Republic, singlehandedly eliminating the DR from contention. Babes Love Baseball thinks Bert Blyleven's performance as pitching coach for the Netherlands should be added to his Hall of Fame resume.

Meanwhile, Curt Schilling has written about the impact of pitching in the WBC, comparing it to baseball's All-Star series in Japan, which Schilling pitched in following the 1998 season.

Some days the Mug feels a little empty without a mention of Eric Gagne. Miller Park Drunk has a photo essay covering his Brewer career.

Some aging veterans, however, can still play: The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has a profile of Mike Cameron. The story is a great, well rounded view of Cameron as a person, including his locker room antics, his battle with post-concussion syndrome (which I haven't seen anywhere else), and his family.

On rankings, projections, etc:

I'm pretty surprised by this number, which I would have expected to be lower: Over 50% of fans at Miller Park last season came from outside of the five-county area that's helping pay for the ballpark. That number is probably a little inflated, as it includes visiting fans of opposing teams, but it's still impressive. Don Walker uses it to make a case for the retractable roof.

Stories from other camps:

Mariners: Brandon Morrow suffered a setback in a bullpen session and will not be ready for Opening Day.
Mets: Angel Pagan has elected to have surgery on his right elbow and will miss 6-8 weeks. The team also released Duaner Sanchez.
Padres: GM Kevin Towers said in a radio interview yesterday that several spots are still open in his bullpen, and some could be filled as players come available at the end of camp.
Rangers: Ben Sheets is in Texas rehabbing with the Rangers' team doctor, but team officials say there's no connection to the team.
Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa may not make the Rockies' rotation after all. He was pulled from a start yesterday after just one third of an inning, and has a spring ERA over 20.

It has not been a good spring for the Astros. On the field, they lost their tenth straight game yesterday. Off the field, FanGraphs ranked them 28th in their organizational rankings, ahead of only the Nationals and Marlins.

Andruw Jones had also been having a rough spring, until he met up with Claudio Vargas. Vargas gave up a home run to Jones yesterday. At one point this spring, Jones had struck out 10 times in 14 at bats.

On the economic front, things don't look so good for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hearst-Argyle, a minority partner in the team, is selling their 1.7% share of the team for an estimated $2.25 million. That price would suggest the value of the franchise has fallen $247 million in the past year.

The news isn't quite as bad for the Mariners, but still ugly: not only did the team narrowly avoid losing 100 games last season, they also lost $4.5 million. Hopefully new management can generate some enthusiasm among the fan base, even if they don't win in 2009 either.

Are the Cubs already learning the dangers of relying on Milton Bradley? Bleed Cubbie Blue has quotes from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram where Bradley admits to taking some days off in 2008 to protect his stat line. Eric Seidman of FanGraphs calls Bradley the "most talented player of the last ten years who truly deserves to sign one-year deals each season."

Baseball Musings' Team Offense Projections has projected the Cardinals to score 4.97 runs per game in 2009. They scored 4.81 in 2008.

Oh, and I forgot to mention it on Monday, but there are new pictures on Gorman's Flickr page.

Drink up.

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Thursday's Frosty Mug

Apr 2009 by KLSnow - 25 comments

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In response to the Gummi Bears article

I thought this was finally going to be the year we would stop talking about the Reds as a sleeper team. Apparently this guy never got the memo

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on Mar 11, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll give the guy credit for being different.

Even if he is most likely wrong.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Mar 11, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Different, but most likely wrong."

That’s what we said about this guy last year.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 11, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, no A-Rod

You mean, we shouldn’t build a franchise around guys like A-Rod?
Go figure.
:)

"If loving CC is wrong I do not want to be right"
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender"

by kirbir on Mar 11, 2009 11:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hold up on that #5 conclusion...
A franchise with a great catcher is usually a team that wins. Just ask the Reds (Bench), Yankees (Posada, Berra), Mets (Carter), Marlins (Rodriguez) and Red Sox (Varitek).

How about we look at the A’s almost dynasty of the late 80’s and early 90’s (Steinbach?), or the Cardinals, White Sox, Rockies of this decade (Molina, Pierzynski, and Torrealba?!?). Hell, the Angels win 100 games every year, and they went to war with… Mike Napoli? My point is a great catcher does not make a great team, nor is it even a necessity. It doesn’t hurt though.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Mar 11, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're stretching the argument a bit.

The point isn’t that every great team has a great catcher, it’s that teams with a great catcher tend to win. There are, of course, exceptions, and the debate of whether or not you should build a franchise around a position that’s injury-prone is valid, but I think you’re arguing the flip side of his point, not the point.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Mar 11, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

...

head on desk

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Mar 11, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carlton Fisk

not too many rings on his fingers, despite being one of the best ever. And if we are calling Tek a great catcher, then we can look at Piazza’s years, and a whole lot of others who are better than Tek where their teams we have a strong catcher contribution (like Dave Nilsson) that didn’t win squat. That’s the point I was trying to argue, and took it in another direction.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Mar 11, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ivan Rodriguez

You can even use one or two of the catchers mentioned in the original point as a counter-example: did Ivan Rodriguez win anything during all those years in Texas? Did Carter win anything during his Expos years? Good catchers, yes—not much winning.

It's called "playing the percentages."

by hilbelink on Mar 11, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pudge did help bring in 3 division titles

but I think it’s Zeyes’s point that brings it to the best conclusion. Pudge with the Marlins, Carter with the Mets were brought in. The point the author was trying to make was that building a team around a great catcher leads to winning by making Mauer an example of a player to build around. I say look at his examples and scream out “BULLSHIGITY!!!” Bench was not the centerpiece of those Reds teams, neither was Posada, Berra, Carter, Pudge or Tek. Those teams have other cornerstones and just happen to have good catchers as well.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Mar 11, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Colour me unconvinced, too.

As Hyatt’s examples show there are plenty of home-grown catchers who didn’t win jack, simply because it’s more or less a crapshoot whether the other starting eight that Rising Star Catcher happens to be surrounded by in the lineup are any good, too. (And I hope we’re not going to go down the “a great catcher makes everybody better” road or anything like that…)

And then of course there’s the possibility to “build around” a great catcher by acquiring him in trade or via free agency. I wouldn’t be shocked if teams who do that in fact tend to win, but not because of their great catcher – more likely simply because acquiring a great catcher is somewhat of a luxury item on most teams’ wishlists, so richer teams are more likely to be doing that, and richer teams are of course also more likely to be winning teams. But crediting that to the presence of said catcher would be a bit spurious.

by Zeyes on Mar 11, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correlation != Causation

!= is not equal, for all the non-cs types

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Mar 11, 2009 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pffft you and your math

Every great baseball team of the past century has had a catcher. Let’s see you disprove that.

You know what I think? Every baseball team that has been great has worn baseball hats. It’s like 100%. Therefore, I conclude that wearing baseball hats is a common link for all dynasties.

The artist formerly known as jihad.

by Jordan M on Mar 11, 2009 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Careful with the Napoli-bashing!

Sure, he’s had some injury problems, and Scioscia seems to think Jeff Mathis is a better signal-caller, but Naps has some good plate discipline and power. He’s definitely one of the better offensive catchers in the AL, and might even get some DH time this year to keep him fresh and keep his bat in the lineup.

by Brew Angel on Mar 11, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

and I think he's a good fantasy option

but do I think he’s the glue that holds the Angels together? Is he the straw that stirs the drink? Is he a decisive player in all their winning. Of course not. The angels win because they beat up on a crappy division with an above average team.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Mar 11, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, yeah, the Halos are in a weak division

But last year (for instance) it wasn’t just a matter of beating up on the crappy division. They beat the snot out of some pretty good AL East teams during the regular season too. They did this mainly by having good rotation depth and an outstanding bullpen, not by having any single irreplaceable player in the everyday lineup. Except Vlad.

Now if we could just get past the Red Sox in the postseason….

I agree with your main point, though, that a single catcher is not the be-all end-all of a great team.

by Brew Angel on Mar 11, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure that the number is inflated

They say that 1.5 million tickets were sold to people out of the area. The only way I can think that they could tally that number is from online sales. That doesn’t take into account anyone from out of the area buying future tickets before or after the game they attend. So if I’m seeing it right, at a bare minimum, 50% of ticket sales went to people outside of the 5 county region.

(30k cubs fans x 9 games = 270,000 Cubs fans) Lets guess that 20% of those cubs fans scalped tickets or bought them at the stadium. That means that roughly 15% of the fans from outside the 5 county range was made up of Cubs fans.

by tcyoung on Mar 11, 2009 12:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Better options

They could look at the zip code associated with the credit cards used to purchase tickets, or mailing address of season ticket purchases.

by Getting Yosted on Mar 11, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

Any time tickets were mailed out, season tickets or single game tickets, it’s easy to locate where they are being bought from. I’m not sure if they would really check all the credit card zip codes, but it still leaves out anybody who paid cash, making the 1.5 M people a minimum. That says a lot about the Brewers becoming a statewide team, rather than just a Milwaukee phenomenon.

by tcyoung on Mar 11, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dumb things I've written

I was wrong about the WBC. I had thought that it was just a gimmick and a way to take guys away from camp when they could be winning jobs. I still think that way, a bit, but Mark DiFelice got more quality innings in in the WBC than he probably could have got in camp.

As for the injury issue, the closest I’ve seen to injuries was that play Marmol tried to make at first last night and a reluctant catcher for South Africa who refused to come out of a game after being repeatedly banged up with foul tips, pitches, etc. Since he’s nobody’s prospect, the injury flailers wouldn’t have cared anyway.

The problem I do have is when teams hold out guys and tell them they can’t play, because then another willing organization is stripped of more starters and minor leaguers for a few weeks. The Twins and Red Sox got hit hard by this simply because they have so many international players in their minor league systems. (So did the Brewers to a lesser extent.)

by morineko on Mar 11, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Teams can only say no, though

If the player was hurt in 2008. So the Yankees, for example, couldn’t have said no to everyone, even if they had decided to completely screw the WBC.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Mar 11, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

technically, yes

but I’ll bet that in their negotiations with CC and Tex, they hinted as strongly as humanly possible that there would be no WBC for them.

My take, which is in an article I wrote for THT that was supposed to run today, is that all the no-shows are kind of a good thing. It ensures that a higher number of players participating are the ones who are really psyched about it. It’s so easy to fake your way out (if you want), that nobody participating is half-hearted.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 11, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No shows in my opinion make it less meaningful

Much like the Pro-Bowl in football, if the best few players don’t show up, you can’t call it truly the Pro Bowl. Why the Pro-Bowl doesn’t work is a different issue.

I will check out the article when it comes out… but if the only people who want to show up are in AA doesn’t make it better just because they want to, I would much rather have ARod/Braun/Zambrano giving 75% than scrappy players I have never heard of.

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Mar 11, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It depends what you want the WBC to accomplish

If you want to know what country is really the best, then yes, obviously you want the best players to be there, just like you want the best players in the pro bowl.

But frankly, I know who the best country is. And if I didn’t know, I could set up a Diamond Mind league and establish very quickly the rankings of the various countries involved.

I want entertaining baseball, and part of what makes the WBC entertaining to me is the clear investment the players have in their team’s success—because of the national pride. It’s important, I guess, that a lot of the best players are involved (I wouldn’t want Team USA to be like the olympic team, headlined by LaPorta), but if it comes down to John Grabow giving 100% vs. Jon Papelbon giving 75%, I’ll take Grabow for the WBC every time.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 11, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with Jeff on this one

But to another point. What no-shows pulled out for reasons other than injury? CC and his 500+ innings in the past 2 years? A-Rod and his balky hip? Tex I’ll agree with you, but the guy ain’t exactly miss congeniality to begin with. I’m happy with 1) the quality of play, and 2) the effort given.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Mar 11, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually haven't been paying that much attention to the player issues.

Mostly it’s guys on new teams. I think there are probably some guys who bowed out because of injuries that are more-or-less made-up. Or really minor. (I don’t know whether people should play through minor injuries for the WBC—that’s another story.)

There are also probably some situations (Kazmir comes to mind, though again, I haven’t paid much attention to the details) where it’s official the team that says no, because the guy was on the DL in April. But the player doesn’t exactly object.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 11, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus, guys on some of these teams have an extra motivation

They need to prove they can play.

There are roughly half a dozen guys on the Italian team, for example, that were previously unknown but have gotten all kinds of publicity for one win.

And there are guys like Mark DiFelice who took a golden opportunity to prove he can get elite hitters out.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Mar 11, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Advice

If you have an opportunity to bet money on a Brewers over/under of 80.5, take the over. I am almost shocked to see it that low. I would set a fair bet at about 83.5 or 84.5.

The artist formerly known as jihad.

by Jordan M on Mar 11, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Is that the Vegas line?

Seriously? The expectation is for a losing season? Seems like a pretty good bet to me, too. Not that I advocate gambling on sports….

by Brew Angel on Mar 11, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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