Monday's Frosty Mug
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 8:51 AM CDT
30 comments
Some things to read while making a parking space.
Ryan Braun could return to action in the major league portion of Brewer camp within the next day or two. Yesterday, he took Brian Fuentes deep in a minor league game with the Angels. Craig Counsell also went 3-for-4 in that game and should rejoin the team soon.
Trevor Hoffman played catch yesterday and is showing signs of improvement, but will still almost certainly start the season on the DL. Carlos Villanueva will be called upon to close until Hoffman is ready. The Brewers will also have an extra arm in the bullpen on Opening Day, as Dave Bush will get his work in as he makes final preparations for his start in the fifth game of the season.
On the field yesterday, Mark DiFelice pitched the first three innings of a 1-0 victory over the Giants and won a spot in the bullpen to start the season.
Mitch Stetter, who also pitched a scoreless inning yesterday, talked with Tom H. about how much he learned working with Brian Shouse, and his preparations for the 2009 season.
Alcides Escobar was also profiled over the weekend. He's likely headed back to the minors, and could be sent down as soon as today or tomorrow.
It could always be worse, though: Adam McCalvy is reporting that Omar Aguilar has joined the crowd at Obliqueapullooza and Alexandre Periard may require shoulder surgery.
On rankings/projections/predictions:
- Mike Fahmie has the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing fifth in the Central. Crappy Brewer prediction aside, I can't imagine a world where four NL Central teams that aren't the Brewers win more than 78 games this season.
- The Giants Baseball Blog predicts the Brewers will finish third in the Central.
- The Toronto Star has the Brewers 14th in their power rankings.
- The Daily Hick predicts the Brewers will win 72 games and finish fourth.
- MLB FanHouse has...well, I guess this is a preview...right?
- Sports Fan Goods expects the Brewers to "struggle mightily and finish towards the bottom of the NL Central."
- Intellectual Thicket's Baseball Mogul projections have the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing tied for fourth in the Central.
Still looking for a summer job? The Brewers are hiring for a Community Relations Internship and a Stadium Operations Internship.
In other camps:
A's: Added two catchers over the weekend, trading for Blue Jays minor leaguer Curtis Thigpen and signing Eric Munson. Also, Justin Duchsherer will have elbow surgery but no one seems sure what doctors will find while they're in there.
D-Backs: He was healthy enough to pitch yesterday and will pitch once more before Opening Day, but the team is expected to hide Max Scherzer on the DL until they need a fifth starter.
Giants: Acquired C Ronny Paulino from the Phillies for lefty Jack Taschner, then traded him to the Marlins for catcher Hector Correa.
Mariners: Brandon Morrow is expected to be the team's long term closer, so Tyler Walker was released. They also acquired utilityman Chris Burke from the Padres for cash.
Mets: Released Ron Villone.
Phillies: Released Marcus Giles.
Rangers: Claimed Joe Koshansky off waivers from the Rockies.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson has left the team.
Tigers: Will place Dontrelle Willis on the DL to start the season with an anxiety disorder.
Twins: Worked out a deal with the Yankees to keep Rule 5 pick Jason Jones.
So yesterday both the Brewers and Giants held back their respective starting pitchers, Yovani Gallardo and Randy Johnson, an act of gamesmanship to prevent either pitcher from showing too much to their first regular season opponent. This move worked out relatively well for the Brewers yesterday but is it worth the effort? I'll go ahead and say no.
Holding back young talent to keep their arbitration clock from starting is always a bad decision, but it's even worse when you're trying to contend. The Braves, potential frontrunners in the NL East, may start center fielder Jordan Schafer in AAA, even though he's winning the competition for the starting job.
How much do April games matter, anyway? Baseball Analysts unveils Championship Leverage Index to answer that question and many others.
How much difference does it make when a pitcher's velocity goes up and down? Tangotiger says a 2.5 mph increase in velocity is good for a drop of about .25 in ERA. That's pretty significant.
A lot of factors have to be considered when designing a new stadium, but apparently the Yankees missed one. YES Network and ESPN are reportedly going to request changes to the ballpark, which is not conducive to TV cameras.
Oh, and sometimes you need to be more careful while pouring out a beer.
Drink up.
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Bad Predictions
I hope the players are reading all of these predictions that have us finishing at the bottom of the division. I think it gives us some motivation to prove that we’re more than just some guys that filled spots on CC’s team last year.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 8:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Predictions
I’m definitely surprised by the number of bad predictions out there and I like this:
just some guys that filled spots on CC’s team last year.
I understand the reactions to a point, considering the typical fan might be inclined to assume that very statement due to the fact that they didn’t really know a thing about the Brewers until a major trade forced ESPN/national media to follow them a little more. I can’t say I mind though, I would much rather be the team coming from the shadows than the team in the spotlight that has won the division before opening day and I think with a young team that is a better place to be.
I kind of feel like I just wasted the last 5 minutes of my life spending time on random fans/writers predictions, I certainly have done a good job prior to this of completely avoiding their work and I’m pretty confident I’ll be successful in continuing that trend from here on out.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Mar 30, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On predictions
While these seem like givens to us, it seems like an awful lot of fans are going to be surprised when the Astros win about 72 games. I can’t believe the volume of predictions I read with the Stros above the Brewers, some by a lot.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm struck by how underrated we are, actually
The artist formerly known as jihad.
by Jordan M on Mar 30, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a scary thought
but what if the majority is right? What do we do? What fixes can we make to prevent that?
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Mar 30, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering that same thing
What if they’re right afterall?? I mean, we are certainly biased.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly, it's possible.
But I don’t think it’s likely. I see the ultimate low end of possibilities as being about 78 wins or so. I don’t think there are more than two teams in the division that will surpass that total (the Cubs, maybe the Reds or Cardinals).
All told, nothing between about 78 and 88 wins would surprise me this season.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, none of those would surprise me
but there’s a big difference in success between a 78-84 record and a 88-74 record. So the question is, what are the solutions to prevent the 78-84 record?
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Mar 30, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
What if Gallardo pitches really poorly or gets hurt.. I think 78 would suddenly become the high end.
The scary thing is that if we have a bad season, we’ll probably be forced to trade away the offense for young pitching prospects and start over.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!
I think we need to discuss the worst case scenario so we don’t go into a deep depression in the manner of the ’06 season
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Mar 30, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Intelligent Brewers Conversation
If we want to hold intelligent conversations about the brewers, I think we have to at least entertain the possibility of failure.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, outright collapse is possible for anyone given a slip or two.
Injuries could turn this team into a 70 win team, but you could say that about anyone.
Given the volume of young talent on this team, I don’t think there’s any scenario that leads to “start over.” Even if this year’s Brewers are terrible, and they trade Mike Cameron and maybe even Fielder, they still bounce back in 2010 with a lineup that looks like this:
2B Weeks
SS Hardy
LF Braun
1B Gamel/Nelson
RF Hart/Nelson
3B Hall/Gamel
CF Cain
C Salome
And we’d still have Gallardo, Parra, Bush, maybe Looper or Capuano, McClung and Suppan as starting pitchers. That’s still not terrible, and it’s hardly “starting over.”
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hm
You know, really, there’s only so much rebuilding that could potentially take place on this team. And most of that will take place next year anyway.
Fielder, Hardy, Cameron, and Hall could all be sent packing. I’m guessing Fielder and Cameron won’t be around next year anyway.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt Hall is moving.
His value isn’t that high, compared to his salary.
If Hardy is gone, then Escobar is in. I didn’t even mention him above.
Given the youth and depth of this team, one would have to make a really concerted effort to gut it and make 2010 all that bad.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
I realized that my rebuilding statement above couldn’t be very drastic. The point I was trying to make is that some pitching would have to be added, and Fielder would most definitely be traded away.
As far as Hall goes, I could see a team possibly taking him on as a 1 year stop gap, even at the 8MM+ he’ll be making next year, provided he has a pretty good year. We wouldn’t get much for him in return, and we’d have to pick up part of his contract, but the Braves and the Angels could both potentially be looking for a 3B.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
One hiccup in A-roid’s rehabilitation and the Yankees could be in the market for a 3rd baseman in a hurry, especially if they end up 10 games back of the Rays and Sox in June because of his missing bat in the line-up and the iffy D.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Mar 30, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is the possibility of losing Hardy or Weeks
We have Alcides Escobar. We were shopping Hardy during the Winter Meetings and Weeks has been a disappointment. What do you think the possibility is that we trade Hardy or Weeks before the deadline, or in the next off season?
by camclow on Apr 1, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Brewers cost themselves the division two years ago to delay the arb clock
Lost the division by 2 games, after playing almost two months with their best option at 3B being kept in AAA. Call me crazy, but I think Braun could have accounted for one extra win a month over the Counselino twins.
by Getting Yosted on Mar 30, 2009 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I won't call you crazy
Because I made exactly that argument in December. :-)
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we're repeating things
I still don’t think it’s always a bad decision. When hoping to contend like the ’07 Brewers, yes. When expecting to finish 15 games back while building for the future, not so much.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Mar 30, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Running the numbers on Suppan
I think he just needs to increase his velocity by 15 mph and he has a 3.50 ERA. He should work on that, as a 104 mph fastball would be fun to watch.
by Getting Yosted on Mar 30, 2009 11:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Opposite side of that
I wonder if a similar effect can be found by decreasing the velocity of an offspeed pitch. If you can increase the difference in velocity between your offspeed pitch and your fastball, I would imagine your ERA would see a decrease.
by tcyoung on Mar 30, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's exactly how Trevor Hoffman stayed good after he stopped throwing gas
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
by battlekow on Mar 30, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would think deception is more important than difference.
If you threw two pitches, one 60 and one 90, one would think it would be hard to maintain a steady arm speed, and if you didn’t, it’d be hard to keep hitters from teeing off on a pitch they can see coming.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Mar 30, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing that the Alcides profile has little mention of his hose or stick
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Mar 30, 2009 1:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Daily Hick?
Good to see Corey Hart started a blog.
by MooseHaas on Mar 30, 2009 3:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
Thanks for the link… I couldn’t believe that Nixon photo
by SullyBaseball on Mar 30, 2009 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.7.2009 at 10:17 AM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
