Projected Starting Rotation-2009

by tyr on Mar 6, 2009 7:02 AM CST Comment 3 comments

I saw something this on TigerTales, so though I would try it out. The projections are shown in the table below of the projected starting rotation. I took the average of the ERA and the K/BB with the following systems: Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel. To give you a perspective on these stats for the Crew a year ago, the team ERA was:3.85 and K/BB 2.10.
With Yovani Gallardo missing most of the season with a knee injury, he is expected to pick up this pitching staff and lead them this season. In 4 starts last season, he had a 1.88 ERA and a 2.5 K/BB rate.It is not fair to say what he would have had. With the projections the Crew's ace is projected to have the lowest ERA and 2nd highest K/BB rate. The rest with the exception of Suppan is acceptable with ERA and K/BB. The spot where Suppan will is going to be hard on the offense. Considering that Crew will have to put up around 5 runs every 5th day.With McClung getting some chances to make the rotation this spring. I think that the Crew should move McClung to the 4 or 5 spot and sent Suppan to the bullpen.

Table of Pitching Projections

Pitcher	ERA	K/BB
Yovani Gallardo	3.56	2.65
Dave Bush	4.19	2.77
Manny Parra	4.20	2.14
Braden Looper	4.37	1.98
Jeff Suppan	4.96	1.51
Seth McClung	4.29	1.64

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With the one glaring exception

I’d be very pleased with these numbers.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Mar 6, 2009 8:02 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

yes

Bill James projections, even at a 1/3 weight, are calculated to make people happy.

This isn’t meant as a criticism of the original post/poster, but why on earth do people persist in using his projections? Revere him, fine, but don’t use projections that are pretty clearly not as good as about five other freely available options.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 6, 2009 8:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Like the projections

The only thing I would add is a calc. on innings per start. My biggest fear with this rotation is they won’t pitch out of the sixth and consequently will wear out the bullpen by August.

by Cushdog on Mar 6, 2009 8:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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