Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Apr 1, 2009 9:44 AM CDT
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PrintSome things to read while acknowledging that the world would be better off without some people.
Another sigh of relief is in order this morning, as X-rays on Ryan Braun's thumb came back negative. Braun lost a fly ball in the lights in last night's 6-4 loss to the Padres and, as a baseball tends to do, it found a delicate place to hit him. He suffered a contusion and will likely be off today, but could play again as soon as tomorrow.
Braden Looper continues to work to catch up with his teammates in his preparations for the season. Looper gave up two earned runs (four total) in four innings last night, but gave up two home runs and was hit hard in general. He'll get one more minor league start before the home opener.
Tony Gwynn Jr. was given another opportunity to prove he belongs in the field last night, and was not impressive. In fact, "not impressive" might be understating it a bit, so Chuckie Hacks took it to the next level. Tuesday's JS Camp Report had this to say about Gwynn's chances of making the team:
Asked if Brad Nelson (.370, 3 HRs, 15 RBI) and Chris Duffy (.313, 8 doubles, 11 RBI) deserved to claim the reserve outfield jobs over Tony Gwynn Jr. (.167) for the same reason, Macha said, "I'd probably say that's the case but they're not on yet. We'll have to see. You'll have to ask me that question in a couple of days."
Brewed Sports has a familiar name in mind to fill Gwynn's roster spot. Geoff Jenkins was cut loose by the Phillies yesterday, and could be available for next to nothing. It's important to remember, though, that the Brewers would likely have to DFA Brad Nelson to make room for him. Nelson will likely produce at a similar level for the Brewers this season, and when he's done he'll still be under team control for five more years.
A side note on Jenkins: Gary Sheffield was also let go yesterday, but FanGraphs compared the two former Brewers and thinks Jenkins has more to offer a team at this point.
While nothing is official yet, it appears Casey McGehee has made the team, as Mike Lamb will not. Lamb has until 11 am today to decide if he would like to become a free agent or go to the minors. If he decides to stay with the Brewer organization, he'll have to clear waivers to be sent down. He'll make $3 million (from the Twins) to be a below average corner infielder this season anyway, so it's hard to feel too bad for him.
Ken Macha tried out a new lineup wrinkle yesterday, batting Corey Hart second and J.J. Hardy fifth. It's an interesting concept: putting Hart in front of Braun and Fielder could force pitchers to throw him more strikes. It will only work, though, if Hart learns to take a pitch from time to time. If pitchers know they can get him out with junk out of the zone, there's no reason to change their approach to him at all.
Barring something unforeseen, Mark DiFelice will be on an Opening Day roster for the first time in his 12 year professional career. Tom H. has a profile that talks about DiFelice's long road to the majors.
By the way, if you're headed out to Miller Park to catch DiFelice and the rest of the Brewers on Opening Day, Miller Park Drunk wants you to dress for success.
If you've already purchased tickets for a Brewer game this season, you're one of 1.75 million fans who have done so, which means you'll also probably be one of 1.75 million fans waiting in line at the new discount concession stand.
You probably won't see these guys, though: The Brewers are suing another suite holder for failure to pay. This time, it's Big League Promotions and Marketing of Waukesha. Apparently they weren't Big League enough.
Brian Anderson posted a new blog before last night's FS Wisconsin telecast and has a preview of some of the upcoming interviews Brewer fans can expect to see as part of the telecasts.
Peter Gammons says 2009 is the year for Rickie Weeks, but if you don't believe him, The Grand National Championships is making a case for it too.
On Rankings/Previews/Predictions and whatnot:
- Bucs Dugout has the Brewers finishing second in the Central.
- Sports Illustrated also has the Brewers second in the division, but says they could make a run at the Cubs by trading Prince Fielder for pitching and replacing him with Mat Gamel, who still has not played one inning at first base.
- Lukekohler.com also has the Brewers finishing second.
- Desipio.com predicts the Brewers will win 81 games and tie with the Reds for third place.
- Sharapova's Thigh thinks the Brewers will finish right around .500.
- Wheelhouse Radio has the Brewers finishing fifth.
- Canada Free Press also has the Brewers fifth, along with a bandwidth-sucking website that made this morning's Mug five minutes later all by itself.
- Sixty Feet, Six Inches has the Brewers fourth in the Central.
- C70 at the Bat also has the Brewers fourth.
- MLB Playoff Odds simulated the season 10,000 times using CHONE projections and predicts the Brewers will win about 79.8 games.
- Stan Musial's Stance has the Brewers fourth in the division.
- The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog simulated the season 6000 times, with 1000 simulations each for six projection systems. The Brewers averaged 81.9 wins and finished in second more often than any other position.
- Vigilante Sports has the Brewers finishing second.
- The Sports Guys rank the Brewers 26th in their preseason power rankings. I've started a petition to get them to become "The Fashion Guys."
Around the minors today, there are a couple of stories of note: Vinny Rottino is headed to Huntsville to play every day at third base. Also, Keith Law watched a Brewer minor league game this week and was impressed by the velocity of Brewer farmhand Pedro Lambertus, who could spend 2009 in Brevard County or Huntsville.
Meanwhile, in other camps:
Astros: Acquired Jeff Keppinger from the Reds for a player to be named later.
Braves: Signed Chipper Jones to a three year extension, keeping him in Atlanta through 2012.
Giants: Jonathan Sanchez will miss his final Cactus League start and could miss his first start of the regular season after burning his right index finger "cooking."
Marlins: Released Dallas McPherson.
Mets: Released Jose Valentin, Tony Armas Jr. and Junior Spivey.
Nationals: Released Wily Mo Pena.
Padres: The team is still looking to add relievers and could make a move for a player who's out of options.
Rays: Jason Isringhausen may not make the team and is not willing to accept a minor league assignment.
Tigers: Jeremy Bonderman will open the season on the DL with tightness in his shoulder.
Another day, another economic story: An AP poll showed 45% of baseball fans think baseball's biggest problem is its price tag. To a point they're right. Take another look at the note above about the Brewers reducing concession prices: the reduced price for soft serve ice cream is $3.50. That's after you spend $10 to park your car and pay "convenience fees" for the right to pay $30-$100 to watch a game.
With that said, the wording of the poll is problematic for me. The poll asked baseball fans for their opinion on the biggest problem facing the game, and they named a problem. If I handed you a $100 bill and asked you to name the biggest problem with it, you'd probably be able to find one. But all the game's problems put together weren't enough to keep participants from telling a pollster they were "interested" or "very interested" in baseball.
Of course, cool giveaways can help raise fan morale too. Giving a cardboard model of your team's new stadium to season ticket holders, however, may be too small of a gesture.
Are the rules somehow different in spring training? Dusty Baker was ejected from yesterday's Reds game, but instead of leaving the field, he remained in the dugout.
Statheads rejoice, you're about to have another new toy: two sources are going to start measuring the hang time of fly balls.
Oh, and if you'd like to make the trip to Davenport, Iowa this season, you could watch the Timber Rattlers play the Quad Cities River Bandits from a van down by the river.
Drink up.
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If Rottino is playing third every day in AA, what happens with Taylor Green?
Wasn’t he supposed to be Huntsville’s third basemen this season?
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
Green's out for awhile recoving from surgery on his wrist
I imagine they’ll sort everything out when he’s healthy; he’ll certainly get priority over Rottino.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
Oh, I didn't realize he was injured.
Come to think of it, I suppose it did seem odd I wasn’t hearing anything much about him during ST. I figured he would have priority over Rottino, which is why I was confused. Thanks for clearing that up.
Though; speaking of Rottino, didn’t he say earlier that he was going to stay with the big league team as a Bullpen catcher or something if he didn’t make the team out of spring training, or am I mixing up my stories?
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
He said he expected to be in the bullpen on Opening Day
I think the implication was he’d win the backup catcher job.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
can’t Green play second as well? Unless this is finally the year for Weeks to break through, second is still a weak spot in the organization.
by juggernaut400 on Apr 1, 2009 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions
I think his natural position is second, though he more than adequate at third.
We do have Brett Lawrie switching over to second base, though. Third base is actually probably a weaker spot in the organization, especially if Mat Gamel has to be moved to another position.
Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9
Yeah, Green started off at second
He switched to third because West Virginia didn’t have one a couple years ago, and I’d imagine he’s been kept there because of the bigger organizational hole there.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
Forgot about Lawrie switching. I would be nice to have a second baseman who can rake like Jeff Kent, minus the surly attitude of course.
by juggernaut400 on Apr 1, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe it's just that TGJr is too skinny
maybe he needs to hit up the buffet to hit better singles like his dad
I just sit back and root for the taser
Tony Sr. was pretty skinny back in the day
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
Is that Greg Oden back when he was 18 on the left? I mean, he is like 45 or something now right? Uncanny facial resemblance.
by juggernaut400 on Apr 1, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions
He's grown a lot since then
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
I love that his page says this
Brother of Tony Gwynn and Uncle of Tony Gwynn
Not to give anyone the wrong idea or anything…
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 1, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
RE: Isringhausen
He made the roster, and is going to start the year on the DL.
I just sit back and root for the taser
Adam McCalvy is our friend
He says so right here.
I don’t think Tom or Anthony is going to call us a friend.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
You gotta love the way he approached the blogs there
I mean, we get him more hits with every link we send him. The nicer he is towards us, the more we will continue to praise his work and suggest it to others. Maybe we could get him for a chat sometime.
I don't link him because he's nicer.
I link him because he’s head and shoulders better than the other beat writers covering the team.
The fact that he’s nice to us is a nice bonus, though. :-)
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
baseball is too expensive
The JS blog commenters that sparked Tom H’s ‘What can you bring in’ story had a discussion about how to see the game for really cheap yesterday. It’s very possible to see a game for 20 dollars.
Lamb opts for his release
So says TBTSNBN.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
BTW - if you're scoring at home
This morning’s Mug featured 43 links and 1428 words, which I think might qualify it for multiple pleonasm status.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
I was about to post the extensive number of links
Had to be a record
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
No, no way it's close.
I’m sure I’ve had 50-60 links before. Maybe not 1400 words, though.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
More on baseball cheapness
The “baseball is too expensive” thing comes up every year. It’s easy to make an argument that this is the case, but it fails every time.
First, the economic argument — if MLB is maximizing revenue, it doesn’t make sense to say, “it’s too expensive.” While there’s the whole antitrust angle, MLB does not owe the world low-cost entertainment. (Though it does provide a whole lot of low-cost entertainment with TV broadcasts and by subsidizing minor league baseball.)
Next, these arguments are always talking about the “average” cost of going to a game. Average is meaningless. I don’t get charged the “average” ticket price when I go online to buy tickets. You can get a $15 ticket (or less) at almost every stadium in baseball. Hell, I bought a pair of decent (upper deck behind home plate) tickets for the first homestand at new Yankee stadium for $25 each. The “average” price might be three figures, but that’s irrelevant.
Finally, concession and memorabilia prices are also irrelevant. Many parks allow you bring some things in, and even where you can’t, most human beings can handle 3-4 hours with no food.
Point being — if you want to go to game for cheap, you can almost always do it. Almost every game, every stadium. The cost isn’t even always more than a first-run movie. People always cite the “it costs $125 [or whatever] to take a family of four to a baseball game” … well, yes, it can, but it doesn’t have to. And seriously, a whole lot of lower-quality live entertainment costs just as much or more.
Also, cheese.
I agree
They always say the cost of taking your family of 4 to a game costs this much… and then includes a piece of memorabilia… why do you need to factor that.. none of these are required…
The Brewers are probably some of the best in the majors in terms of deals you can find, whether it be Uecker seats to every game, the 5 county discount days, the prevelancy of tailgating (hence avoiding beer and concession costs inside).
Sine they factor in suite’s which mostly are purchased by businesses who then give the tickets to employees and clients, does not make games truly expensive, I find it to be almost as cheap as going to a movie.
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
paying inside
Over the course of the season, I will probably go to 20 games. I will spend less than $100 inside the park. Heck, I’ll probably spend less than $50 inside the park. That would mean a hot dog every other game. I always eat before the game, so the only time I want food is when I drink enough to make myself hungry again. I’m also going to make a point of bringing in a bottle of water every game this year.
I totally agree
It’s supply and demand. Why do you think the prices seem to rise every year? Because people are still paying.
On statistical projections
It can get disheartening to see all the 79-82 win projections, especially from credible projection systems and simulations.
What these simulations always fail to do is take into account depth (beyond the MLB roster) and, to some extent, injury risk. For instance, Rich Harden is projected by CHONE for 94 innings of 3.16 ERA. Now, he may well do that, and he may do much better. But…there’s a very real possibility he won’t come close, and maybe even have injury problems all season. Same goes for Chris Carpenter and tons of other guys.
One of the good things about DM’s approach is that he’s built a very solid team without a lot of downside. Sure, guys could slump, but short of a major injury to Fielder or Braun (and even a Fielder injury wouldn’t be catastrophic), the team’s going to be decent. Force the Cubs or Cardinals to come up with 100 or 200 more IP of starting pitching, and it’s a very different story for them.
One might even say, in general, the better the team, the bigger the downside. If you have a great team, you must have some great, irreplaceable players. The Yankees are seeing that with A-Rod … imagine if the BoSox lost Pedroia (though otherwise, they are a very well-built, deep team, esp. in starting pitching) … or closer to home, imagine the Cubs without Z or Soriano, or the Cards without Pujols. Pre-season projections, as they are currently done, don’t fully take that downside risk into account.
Also, cheese.
Just implying a lesser lower bound?
When these projections report a team’s expected win total, is it just an average of a number of factors (e.g., point estimate)? It seems to me a proper projection system would provide a lower and upper bound on expected number of wins.
It seems that taking into account downside would only bring down the lower bound of a win projection.
To elaborate
The projections do provide some higher and lower estimates, but that has more to do with luck. The Cubs might win only 88 games because of bad luck. But these projections don’t take into account the possibility that they’ll have bad luck (only 88 wins) AND Harden will be out for the season (I don’t know, 85 wins).
It seems that taking into account downside would only bring down the lower bound of a win projection.
For good teams, it would bring down the lower bound. But by acknowledging the downside risk, it would also lower the average. (One could make an analogy to certain investments for the last 20 years, but it would be too depressing.)
For bad teams, it wouldn’t have the same effect. For the Pirates, there aren’t very many injuries that would have a seriously negative effect on their win total.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 1, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Average isn't a good measure
But why bother with the average and instead stick with the bounds, in the first place? Eh, that’s just the statistician in me. Everyone here knows the fallacies of using point estimates for projections. To say the Brewers will finish fourth in the division when your projections have them possibly, though not probably, winning 86 or 88 games is just misleading.
It sounds like what you’re proposing with the depth element of the projection would also require an estimate of the probability of injury to any given player. That seems tricky, at best. Would you put in a Bayesian prior on probability and duration of injury based on past history of that player and similar players?
If you do that, then you’re essentially just lowering the lower bound of the previously projected IP or ABs (ergo lowering average IP, ABs). From there you need to take into account the replacement players and how they would project for those replacement IP and ABs.
Of course, what’s your definition of a “replacement player?” What I think you’re discounting, somewhat, is something I’ll call Potential Depth. A team with a devastating injury (2008 Brewers starter Gallardo) can replace that player during the season based on either a deep farm system (CC Sabathia trade) or deep pockets (salary dumps).
Potential Depth would be remarkably difficult to estimate, in my opinion, but would be absolutely vital to any sort of depth projection. This season is looking like there might be more salary dumping than usual which would exclusively help Deep Pocket teams like the Yankees and the Cubs.
How complex do these projections systems get? That seems like a lot of complexity to ultimately probably move 1-2 projected wins between robust and fragile rosters.
of course, it's enormously complex
I’m not recommending that we try to fix it, though I do think the effect on the top teams would be more than 1-2 games.
My point is just to suggest that the projections, despite their apparent consensus, don’t take a key issue into account.
I will say, though, that you could use Will Carroll’s red/yellow/green lights for injury risks, and get a pretty good measure. Using generic replacement level would be a start, though you’re right, that doesn’t reflect the reality of the situation, and would also be misleading when making won/loss projections.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 1, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Braves want more Chipper
I know he teetered around .400 for a while last year, but this is guy is getting older and older and will not be able to play third (or OF) on a daily basis. I wish for him to finish his career there as I like to see franchise players stay with their team, but I don’t know if he’ll be there until 2012.
Yeah
He’ll be making $13M the next 3 years. He was still a VERY good player last year, but I’m not sur ehe’ll be worth $13M in 2012. However, they owe it to him for all that he’s brought to Atlanta. I was a bit surprised by the move, considering they didn’t seem to care about keeping John Smoltz around.
True
Players rarely play to their worth towards the end of their career and clubs are more likely to pay for a name rather than actual numbers, but I was also suprised they let Smoltz walk like that.
The new owner took a lot of heat for that
I’m guessing that fan reaction to letting Smoltz go may have been part of the reason they signed Chipper.
Frivolous spending
I agree with that I just to hate to see clubs spending money that they don’t need to. Not that chipper does not deserve this, but on the other side shouldn’t Atlanta get a hometown discount? I hate to see franchise players leave for another team, but I also hate to see clubs over pay for somebody because of past accomplishments.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.8.2012 at 12:59 PM CST)
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