Where's the Bench?
by Kyle Lobner on Apr 20, 2009 2:47 PM CDT
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PrintSo we spent a lot of time and internet space discussing three players this spring: Chris Duffy, Brad Nelson and Casey McGehee. They had excellent springs (for whatever that's worth), and they beat out the likes of Mike Lamb and Tony Gwynn Jr. to earn three spots on the Brewer bench.
Since Opening Day, however, we haven't discussed them much at all. In fact, they've hardly been seen since then. Duffy, Nelson and McGehee have a combined 16 at bats in the Brewers' first 12 games. For context, Craig Counsell has 15 by himself, and Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan also combined for 16.
There are positives and negatives to this, to be certain. Certainly, while all three of these players had solid springs, none of them earned the right to unseat any of the regulars they're backing up. We all knew coming into the season that Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Mike Cameron would get the vast majority of playing time, and justifiably so. With that said, Mike Cameron is the only member of that group that's even received one day off this spring. At times it even looks like management is making an effort to keep the bats away from these guys: Over the weekend, McGehee entered one game as part of a double switch but was pinch hit for when his turn came up, and Jeff Suppan was allowed to hit for himself in the seventh inning yesterday with all three of these guys on the bench.
None of the guys on the end of the Brewer bench should be playing everyday. With that said, I think each of them should be playing a little more: maybe one start a week, for the following reasons:
Rest. Corey Hart blames his September 2008 slump on being worn out. He came to camp in better shape in 2009, but could probably still use an off day every now and then. Ryan Braun says his intercostal muscle is fine, but even if it is Braun could probably use a breather from time to time, especially since he was thrown back in head first after missing most of camp. On a day-to-day level, keeping all of the regulars in the Brewers lineup gives them the best chance to win each day. But on the grander scale, giving them a breather every couple of weeks might help keep them fresh for August and September.
Refocus. Sometimes a day off and some extra work in the cage can help a player get things going in the right direction. Prince Fielder is 2 for his last 20. Ryan Braun is six for his last 37 and has just two extra base hits in that stretch. Both players are very valuable to the team in the long run, but getting them a day to correct themselves could make them even more valuable once they're back.
Remove rust. If something were to happen to one of the Brewer regulars, odds are one of these three guys would be called upon to pick up the slack. How sharp can one expect Brad Nelson to be when he hasn't faced live pitching in a week or more? None of these guys are All Stars in waiting, but asking them to step up and hit in key situations when they've barely been used isn't a realistic expectation.
Each of the three players in question have at least three spots in the field where they can play. I know some people will disagree with me on this, but I feel like it's in the team's best interest to find all three of them an opportunity to start a game an average of once a week. What do you think?
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It's early
The only comment I would add is that it’s early in the season. Guys are still fresh and some are still trying to find their groove at the plate. I’d think as the season wears on and there are a few more bumps and bruises on the starters, the bench will get a little more time.
i disagree with the rust
So, you’re willing to sacrifice the now for the what-if? If they’re so rusty, what are they doing pinch hitting in the late game when arguably they might be worse than kendall, rivera or counsell? If someone gets hurt, they sub in for the hurt guy and we just might lose that game (rather than waste high leverage situations on rusty not-as-good players). Then for the next game we decide to DL the hurt guy and bring up someone (non-rusty) from AAA or just bench the hurt guy and play the bench player.
As to each one getting one start every week – I disagree (even though that’s the option I sorta voted for). Maybe ONE of them getting a shot each week would be best. Not all three every week.
The rusty arguement
I think this comes into play most on the PH opportunities. There are going to be plenty of times throughout the season when there will be a need for quality AB from a pinch hitter. If these guys don’t get at least semi-regular ABs in live situations, you can’t expect them to come up to the plate in a high leverage situation and be successful. I liken it to a bullpen pitcher getting work enough to stay on his game. How many times have we seen a closer get work in games he isn’t needed simply to “stay fresh”?
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 20, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
This is exactly my point.
Thanks for making it for me.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
An Answer to the Rust
Would be to have Riske pitch to them daily before the game to shake the rust AND build the confidence.
by MendozaAndMe on Apr 20, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
La Russa
As a Brewer fan living in the Lou it’s funny to hear fans wanting to see more from the bench. Cardinal fans go crazy every game, because “La Genius” loves to mess with the lineup to keep guys fresh. You have Ryan Ludwick who’s an Allstar and he’s just killing the ball, but he doesn’t play every day. It’s hard to argue with La Russa’s track record though. I think there is something to be said for getting guys going early so they are confident later on.
"Anybody with ability can play in the big leagues. To last as long as I did with the skills I had, with the numbers I produced, was a triumph of the human spirit." Source: Catcher in the Wry (Bob Uecker, 1982)
Make no mistake, the La Russa strategy is not what I'm looking for.
Braun, Fielder, Cameron, Weeks, Hart, Hardy and maybe Hall should see the majority of starts. But maybe not EVERY start.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Along the same lines as Rivera being Bush's personal catcher?
Let each guy in the lineup get a day off and be replaced by his individual sub?
I'd make it a little more complex than that.
McGehee, for example, can play third and second, so he could spell Hall one week and Weeks the next. In the outfield and at first, a day off every three weeks for Fielder, Braun and Hart and a day off each week for Cameron, for example would generate enough starts for both Nelson and Duffy to get into one game a week.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
I like that plan.
Living in MN, I’ve seen Gardenhire spread starts around in a similar fashion with the Twins, and it seems to have worked for them over the years.
One of my consistent criticisms of Yost
was screwing around and trying to find the hot hand, and occasionally playing inferior players over a regular or randomly bringing in backups. If guys need a day off, a bench guy should play, but I would never play Duffy over Braun if they’re both at full strength. The bench should really only get in there when they are needed. I personally would not sit Braun, Hart or Fielder for the reason of giving one of these three at-bats. It’s a different situation if a regular physically needs a day off. Otherwise, I say let them play.
I’d have to be convinced that a day off is going to magically make a struggling hitter come back better afterwards. If they are physically dragging, as Braun might be, it’s understandable, but I don’t think you start Nelson at 1B tomorrow and expect better production than you would for Fielder.
I voted for the “correct usage” option in the poll, and I think the usage has been correct so far, but it will change more as we get into May and June. We’re only 12 games in.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Personally
I think it’s the fact that Braun’s douchebag line of T-shirts may have taken too much out of him this off-season, and may need a day off at this point.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
I would never play Duffy over Braun if they’re both at full strength.
This is the right idea. Ben Lindbergh at BP recently did an article on catcher fatigue that touched on other positions as well, and I’m gonna rip off one of his graphs:
The Y-axis denotes the weighted average of the differential between each player’s “daily” OPS+ (in other words, his performance(s) on the “consecutive day” in question), and his full-season OPS+.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
cool graph. do you know if it’s controlled for quality of opposition (looks like no) or weather? (i dont have access to that site)
opposition: because of the way off days line up (mondays and thursdays), day 8 ends up being a fri or tues more often than not, which I’d be willing to beat that the quality of the opposing pitcher is slightly better than average after an off day…
weather: also because of the way off days line up, days 7,8 are very likely to be night games while days 3 and 6 are often going to be day games.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
Hmm, and I figured that off-days simply break/end the streak...
Perhaps I’m interpreting “consecutive” a bit too literal though, I have no idea (not being a BP subscriber). Of course, if my interpretation is correct, that carries its own set of sampling issues.
Anyway, taken at face value that graph is pretty counter-intuitive to me. First baseman hold up fine for a week and then crater for Day 8? DH players have comparable fatigue patterns to catchers? And they’re below their own season average on every single day – I assume that’s because the DH position itself is often used as an “off-day” for players from other positions, so at least that data strikes me as highly suspect. But again, I haven’t read the article so I’m mostly speculating here.
by Zeyes on Apr 21, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He addressed those questions; I'll just quote him:
First basemen, situated at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum, manifest no sign of a drop-off until their sharp fall on day eight, which may be nothing more than a blip, given that they rebound to post a differential of zero on day nine (not pictured). Counterintuitively, designated hitters display a fatigue pattern similar to that of the catchers, despite their freedom from defensive duties. In 2007, the authors of The Book identified (but left unexplained) a so-called “DH penalty,” which adjusts for the fact that players who alternate between playing in the field and serving as the DH tend to perform worse in the latter capacity. It’s possible that both the penalty and the fatigue curve reflect some psychological byproduct of prolonged pine-riding, but there are more likely explanations for designated hitters’ susceptibility to fatigue—designated hitters tend to be older (teams’ primary DHs averaged 32.5 years of age in 2008, compared to 29.2 for catchers), relatively unathletic, and/or nursing an injury which prevents them from playing the field, all factors that could explain their superficially surprising tendency to tire.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
McGehee sitting this much, no doubt, can’t be helping him at all. He was a monster this Spring, and sitting down can’t help stabilize that kind of production he was able to pull in Spring.
I think it’s high time he saw more time at 3rd.
PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.
i do not understand how anyone wants to see the bench more often. duffy, mcgehee and nelson are completely overmatched at the plate, they are 100% lost up there.
there are, right now, 74 votes for “we want more of the crappiest players on the team.” klsnow, do you have 73 other accounts or something? does anyone else seriously believer that weeks, fielder, braun and hart should have 2 fewer games each to mcgehee, nelson and duffy. that’s probably the equivalent of a total of 10 runs worse on offense after just two weeks.
if anything people should be outraged that these three nobodies have nearly 5% of the brewer’s plate appearances already.
[sigh]
Bring Back The Old Logo!
on the other hand...
“more usage” can also be shorthand for “please don’t have the relievers bat for themselves on a frequent basis.”
(It could also mean “late inning defensive replacement” in blowouts, if they ever have any, because the only legitimate late inning defensive replacement is Counsell.)
by morineko on Apr 20, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
For those that voted or think one of the three should be starting...
Who and why? Not that I’m criticizing, just curious.
McGehee is not good enough to get any more time than he's getting - Counsell and Nelson are better and cover his positions.
Duffy and Nelson could probably afford a start a week, and Rivera should be starting twice a week.
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