Replace CC and Ben? No problem.
by roguejim on Apr 3, 2009 6:16 PM CDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintWhen you read the 2009 NL Central previews, just about everyone sees the Brewers taking a big hit with the departure of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, in some cases dropping us to 5th place in the division.
But will the dropoff from 2008 to 2009 be that bad? I'm not so sure.
In looking over last season's game logs, I believe that in games that CC and Sheets pitched, the Brewers went a sparkling 32-16. That's pretty impressive. When you replace those two with Gallardo and Braden Looper, it looks like a pretty sizable mismatch.
However, I think we're looking at the CC acquisition the wrong way.
When the 2008 seaosn started, our starting five was Sheets-Gallardo-Bush-Parra-Suppan. When Gallardo went down, we tried to patch his absence over with starts from Villanueva and Son of Clung, before landing CC last July. If you assume that Bush-Parra-Suppan in 2009 will be the same as they were in 2008 (a separate discussion entirely), then the real 2008/2009 comparison is as follows:
- 2009: Projected records in games started by Gallardo and Looper
- 2008: Records in games started by Sheets, CC, Villanueva, Son of Clung, and a little Gallardo
We know the Brewers went 32-16 in games started by CC and Sheets. The rest of the 2008 squad?
- Gallardo: 2-2
- Villanueva: 3-6 (until mid-May)
- Son of Clung: 6-5 (until early July, when Sabathia arrived)
(Note: my counts are based on what seem like starts from the game logs. I might be off by a game or two.)
When you add them all together, we're looking to replace 43 wins in 72 games, a 59.2 winning percentage. Gallardo and Looper aren't likely to pitch in 36 games apiece, of course, but let's say full seasons from each of them get us 32 starts each. Can the Brewers win 20 of 32 games in games that Gallardo starts? What about Looper? Last season, the Cardinals won 15 of the games Looper started, and I think the Cardinals were significantly worse than the Brewers in 2008.
If the Brewers win 20 games that Gallardo starts, 20 games that Looper starts, and 3 of the remaining 8 games to make it an even comparison...then we're at 43 wins again.
I think this is doable. Of course, there are other variables at work, such as the health of the pitching staff as a whole, so this isn't an exact comparison. If Gallardo goes down again, the point is moot, but the usefulness of this exercise takes a hit if even Suppan misses a significant amount of time. Still, I think there's reason to believe that the losses of CC and Sheets are being overstated, and 90 wins should be once again within reach.
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What about the intangibles?
When either of those guys were starting, I think it made the team more confident and really made the team play harder. I’m not saying that’s going to be any different than when Bush or YoGa is pitching this year. But there is something to be said for team mentality going into a game.
looper
I think Braden’s a 14-16 game winner with the brewers, look at his wins/loses last year. A lot of loses when he only gave up 4 or less runs in 6+ innings, I think the brewers offense is better then the cards overall, and certainly better this year if Bill Hall and Weeks bat at least 270.
And yeah, Bens a good pitcher but, this is going to be his what? 4th season out of 5 where he won’t make more then 23 starts.
We only had C.C for half a season, and yeah he was great but I think YoGa can pick up at least 15 wins this year.
Thanks.
This was exactly what I’ve been saying obtusely whenever anyone says that the Brewers have no chance after losing CC and Sheets, but said in a way that makes sense.
Plus
If need be, the Brewers have some shiny prospects to trade for a good pitcher if one becomes available.
We've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!
Thanks Jim
This is exactly what I’ve been thinking. I don’t know if we can expect 90 wins, but some of these sub-500 predictions are outrageous.
What about making up some of these wins on the offensive side? Do you think we can do better than 750 runs this year?
It's a nice sentiment
The idea is solid. There a couple of issues however. Win and losses aren’t the best stat for a pitcher. I haven’t looked anything up because I am about to hit the sack, but I would look at era or FIP over IP. CC and even Ben pitched ALOT of innings with minimal damage. They almost always kept the team in it, worked quickly with few base runners which most would say greatly benefits defensive efficiency and they provided a VERY undervalued service to the bullpen by going 7,8,9 innings a game. Those aren’t really qualities seen in stats, but can have a HUGE effect on a team.
Next, I think we can all agree that Yo. G is very good and will be a staff ace. However, for 2009 I don’t know how he can be counted on to do the things ace’s do with this recent history. Is he really ready to pitch 210+ innings? What about the added pressure of being the #1 guy, especially when coming back from injury? Will he push himself too far and risk another injury? Where would we be then?
I agree that the loss of Ben and CC isn’t AS huge as everyone thinks, but honestly it is still a big deal. There is a reason CC is getting $161 Mil.
Needless to say, I disagree
Actually, that’s not true - I agree with you, but I think you’re missing the point. There’s no question that CC and Ben are excellent pitchers, and I’m certainly not going suggest otherwise. But there’s a reason you’d look up ERA and FIP and make projections, right? You do so because you want to know who’s going to actually win the game.
You’re an Astros guy, right? (I’ve always had a soft spot for the Astros - I think it’s the day-glo orange uniforms from when I was a kid.) Let’s play The GM Game, where I’m starting Jeff Suppan against the Stros and you’re countering with Roy Oswalt. You might say, “well, I have the advantage - Oswalt is teh awesome, and his ERA is super low, and his FIP is far better than Suppan’s” and on and on. Which is all true. However, I have a time machine, and after jumping one day in the future, finding out the results of the game, fixing the flux capacitor, and jumping back to present day, I know the actual outcome - that the Brewers ultimately win the game. Isn’t that more important? If you’re playing fantasy baseball or evaluating free agents in the offseason, then yes, give me FIP, ERA, WHIP, the whole 9 yards. However, predictive statistics like these, especially predictive individual statistics, are subservient to the actual results of who wins the game. Oswalt might go 8 scoreless innings and Suppan might give up 6 runs in the first - but if the Brewers ultimately win the game, I’m still going with The Soup.
Anyway…
If, as a group, the trio of Suppan/Bush/Parra neither improves nor regresses from 2008 to 2009 in terms of team games won, then the Brewers need to win 43 of the other 72 games if they are going to reach 90 wins. Accomplishing that would be easier with CC and Sheets, of course - which, as you point out, is why CC is getting $161 million in New York. In his place, we have Gallardo and Looper. The Brewers need to win about 20 of each of these player’s 32 starts to put us on track for 90 wins. (Again, these are team wins - if the Brewers need Gallardo and Looper to both be 20-game winners, then we’re in trouble.)
You can argue - in fact, you DID argue, sort of - that Gallardo might not be up to the task. You might be right. I’m not convinced (yet) that he’s a true #1 pitcher, plus I’m concerned about injury risk. (Remember, he missed most of April last season, pitched three games, and THEN went down for most of the season.) Maybe the people who see Looper regressing by half a run in ERA know something I don’t. I guess we’ll see soon enough. However, if Looper is as good as I think he is, and Gallardo can avoid the next Sheetsian setback, I like our odds of hitting 90 again.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Maybe this will help
Who would you rather throw out there on your team, hoping to WIN the game?
Jake Peavy (11-10) or Jon Garland (14-8) ??
I ask because most would say Peavy, however according to your methodology you would choose Garland because he WON more games last year, right? Even though he pitched FAR worse 4.90 ERA vs Peavy’s 2.85 ERA .
The point is, wins are the goal. But not a metric for measuring a pitchers overall worth. There are far too many contributing factors that are out the pitchers control that effect the outcome of a game. To place those variables as an asset to a pitcher is crazy.
Another good example: Matt Cain. he pitched very well last year, however had a record of 8-14. What you don’t see is that he got less run support than any pitcher in baseball last year.
Point: You can’t use wins and losses to judge a pitchers contribution to your team.
I'm not sure...
Maybe I don’t understand your point. You keep mentioning the record that a starting pitcher has - Peavy, Garland, Matt Cain - and I’m not sure why. We’re in complete agreement: a pitcher’s won-loss record is a horrible way to judge how good a pitcher is. Are we agreed so far?
The thing is, the thrust of this post has nothing to do with how good a pitcher is. I’m not arguing for a new metric for evaluating pitching, or suggest that W/L is more telling than FIP, ERA, or anything else. We really seem to be talking about two different things.
What I am saying is that if we’re to win 90 games in 2009, we’ll have to find a way to replace CC and Sheets, which sounds impossible when your big pitching signing is Braden Looper. However, as dominant as CC was, we only had him for half of the season. For the other half, we had mediocre performances from Gallardo, McClung, and Villanueva, and in games started by those three, the Brewers ended up losing more than they won.
If Gallardo is replacing Sheets, then Looper is replacing Pitcher X, who is an amalgam of half a season of awesomeness (CC, in the second half of 2008) and half a season of mediocrity (Gallardo/McClung/Villanueva, in the first half of 2008). Can Looper match CC? It is to laugh. But can Looper match Player X? That’s the big question for me. I think he can.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Not Quite
Like another said, its a nice theory, but its a big stretch as far proving your theorem goes.
Up to the point that Sabathia made his first start, Sheets was 10-2 and the Brewers were 49-40. Its just too much to expect that Gallardo can do that in a whole season, let alone the full year. Gallarod may be given the chance to make 35 starts but if they do this the Brewers will blow his arm out (likely).
Bush will do what he does, which is be a .500 pitcher. Suppan is due for a big regression year and will be lucky to win 10 games, let alone 8. His ERA is headed to over 5.00. Looper isnt healthy and the bullpen is very shaky. Even if Hoffman comes back its shaky.
One other big difference is that last year they won a ton of games in their last at bat and in one run games. Much more over the average. Those things return to the norm very fast.
All that said, this Brewer team won 90 and made the playoffs on Sabathia’s shoulders and big slide by the Mets, and a AAA pitcher for the Pirates and a series against the Cubs where Pinella handed them victories.
They wont get that help this year, they wont have the same luck, and without their 2 workhorse starters its a VERY long shot to win 90. Id say there is a chance at 86, but Im sticking with my prediction of 82 and finishing in 4th place.
Ummm...OK
Actually, I’m having a hard time following your post, so I’m going to try to put down what I think you mean before responding.
Up to the point that Sabathia made his first start, Sheets was 10-2 and the Brewers were 49-40. Its just too much to expect that Gallardo can do that in a whole season, let alone the full year. Gallarod may be given the chance to make 35 starts but if they do this the Brewers will blow his arm out (likely).
Translation: Well…I’m not sure what you’re trying to say with the whole season/full year part. I’ll guess, “It’s too much to expect to be as good as Sheets was last season, and if you’re expecting Gallardo to pitch a full season, his arm will probably fall off.”
Response: Between Gallardo’s youth and injuries, I’ll admit it’s hard to predict how he’ll fare in 2009. However, in 24 games (covering 21 starts), he has a career ERA of 3.35 and WHIP of 1.27. Expectations are high for him, but justifiably so. As far his arm falling off…actually he should be on track for pitching a full season. In 2006, he pitched 155 innings, and went up to 188 innings in 2007. I don’t expect workload to be a problem.
Bush will do what he does, which is be a .500 pitcher. Suppan is due for a big regression year and will be lucky to win 10 games, let alone 8. His ERA is headed to over 5.00.
Response: This one seems clear enough. It sounds like you’re expecting Bush to repeat last season, which certainly seems reasonable. Suppan is due for a regression, though? Really? It sounds like you’re saying that Suppan had a good year last season (for him), and we’re foolish to expect that again. In actuality, though, last season was his worst year since 2002/2003 (and he still won 10 games). If he “regresses,” he’d probably win 2 more games and drop his ERA by half a run. :) In any event, the last time he didn’t win at least 9 games was 1998, with Arizona; his ERA was nearly 5 last season and he still won 10. I’d assume that either he pitches at least as “well” as last season, or his replacement will.
Looper isnt healthy and the bullpen is very shaky. Even if Hoffman comes back its shaky.
Translation: I don’t like the Brewers very much just on principle.
Response: Looper is injured? There was the oblique strain a month or so ago when he sneezed wrong. But Looper’s pitched almost 1000 innings and has only been on the DL once. As for the shaky bullpen…well, at this point I assume you’re making things up. We may not have a gallery of all-star closers, but I think it’s as good as last season’s. We may not have Salomon Torres, but we also don’t have Gagne and Turnbow either. Moreover, with Villanueva and Son of Clung in the pen, we have much better depth than last season. As for Hoffman, the biggest argument is that he’s overpaid, not ineffective. I’m pleased with our bullpen.
One other big difference is that last year they won a ton of games in their last at bat and in one run games. Much more over the average. Those things return to the norm very fast.
Translation: The Brewers were lucky last season.
Response: Well, that could be. You can argue that the Brewers were unusually lucky last season. It’s a little hard to quantify and predict, but it’s a fair point.
Sabathia’s big shoulders, yadda yadda yadda.
Response: That’s my main point. In order to effectively evaluate Sabathia, in this context, you have to include Villanueva, McClung, etc. We’re not just replacing CC’s great starts - we’re also replacing the so-so ones by his predecessors. Or, to put it another way, if we had to replace a full season of CC’s 1.50 ERA, as well as Sheets, I wouldn’t be so optimistic. Fortunately for us, that’s not the case.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
On another aspect...
that I’ve been wondering about and that Ken Rosenthal just managed to remind me of again:
Brewers: Boy, the pitching is thin — so thin that even another CC Sabathia-type trade might not provide enough of a midseason boost.
Is our pitching really thin? Low upside, uninspiring, mediocre – all of that I wouldn’t hesitate to agree with. But thin? I’m kinda wondering if it might be an overlooked advantage that nearly half our bullpen will consist of credible (at a minimum) 6th-starter types with McClung, Villy and arguably DiFelice. Maybe I’m just whistling past the graveyard, but shouldn’t that be preferable to having to pull your replacement starters (and every team’s bound to need them eventually) straight out of AAA?
You’ll still have to call up pitchers, of course, to fill the bullpen spot vacated by the guy making the switch to starting, but filling in the back of the bullpen ought to be easier than having to call up a starter, no? You can still take a Nashville starter if he happens to be the best candidate, but you’re not locked into having to bring up a guy who was already starting.
I'd agree with you
If you can get a replacement pitcher (if a starter goes down) who’ll give you a sub-5 ERA, I’d say you’re doing pretty well. McClung and Villy would fit the bill, I’d say, and DiFelice probably would as well. If you’re not familiar with our pitchers, you probably look at them and ask, “Who are these guys?” But, I expect a month or two from now, people will call the Brewers pitching a “pleasant surprise.”
Well, maybe not backtocali and baggs. But everyone else. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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