I just read Ron Darling’s book The Complete Game and he’s not fond of managers calling the running game from the bench. (He’s not fond of a lot of things that don’t allow pitcher and catcher to think for themselves, in fact.) Is this something that’s changed over the years?

Does that mean Bill Hall is faster?

It was also a full count. If Braun walks it would have been irrelevant. If Braun gets a hit, the likelihood of scoring increases significantly. If Braun hits a grounder it diminishes the chance of a double play.

It was close to giving an extra at bat for Braun against what would likely be a Pirates reliever.

if we’re talking about situation, i think a stolen base can help jumpstart things when the offense is otherwise lacking. a single scores a runner from second, not (typically) first. and if you think you have a good chance (say, more than 75%) of success, then it might be worth doing. for instance, i also didn’t have a problem with braun trying to steal in the 9th against the mets. (although when braun looked winded from all the foul balls in his first few tries, i’d guess the likelihood of success dropped).

if this is about gross steals, the 8 steals looks to be at about the same rates macha had in oakland:
‘03 – 48 steals/ 14 caught
’04 – 47/ 22
’05 – 31/ 22
’06 – 61/ 20.
none of those steal totals were above 10th most in the league. and the rate looks about the same as what we’re seeing now (for simplicity, 8 steals x 6 months = 48 steals for the year).

so it’s a matter of why we’re not being 75%+ successful, no? are these guys slower, getting shorter leads, attempting against good catchers, or just “unlucky” (in which case it should even out)?

From Braun’s earlier at bats, I would have bet that the pitch he went on would be a slider in the dirt. And worse case scenario, Weeks gets caught and Braun gets a fresh AB against someone he hadn’t struck out against three times already.

only better basestealers would try to steal at this point in the season, and that may increase the success rate. however last year he really did seem to be able to throw out even the better runners. this year he looks like crap. poor transfer to throwing hand, poor footwork. i’ve seen on more than one occasion his front foot way off line and pointed basically towards third.

on actual work, so i looked it up. here are the baserunners who stole against kendall and their career-to-date success rate (per baseball reference):
steals
4/8 – winn 2 (71%)
4/12 – gathright (74%), soriano (78%), theriot (76%)
4/14 – taveras 2 (83%)
4/18 – reyes (80%)
4/21 – ibanez (61%)
4/22 – werth (88%)
4/24 – bourn (82%)
4/25 – pence (62%)
total – 12

caught
4/10 – fontenot (58%)
4/26 – pence (62%)
total – 2

so, yes, the successful stealers do look generally like they’re better at it. so there could be some selection going on there. but it could be that some teams can read the pitchers (or macha’s signals) better, or poor footwork, etc… (as suggested elsewhere).

(and no, i’m not going to look up everyone’s success rates from last season! i can’t procrastinate that long!)