Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while adjusting your optimism.
You're probably going to hear a fair amount of complaining about scheduling today, as the Brewers and Giants wait around to become the last two teams to open their 2009 schedules. Tom H. certainly wants the Brewers to play today.
The Brewer opener was pushed to tomorrow to give the Giants a day off between their last exhibition contest yesterday and their opener. Most teams schedule a day off for the middle of their opening series in case of weather, but the Giants are flying without that safety net, and it may become important because it's supposed to rain tomorrow. This week's series is the Brewers' only scheduled visit to San Francisco in 2009, meaning the game will either have to be played in poor conditions tomorrow or the Brewers and Giants will face a doubleheader in their first series of the year.
Weather could be an issue in other places as well. Today's White Sox/Royals game in Chicago has already been postponed, and there's talk of weather-related delays in Boston, St. Louis and Cincinnati.
When the Brewers finally do take the field, it will be 20 minutes later than previously expected. The Giants have pushed back the start time to allow for Opening Day festivities. Heaven forbid they'd start those before everyone is in their seats on a rainy day.
So, barring inclement weather, Jason Kendall will start his second season as the Brewers' catcher tomorrow. The second of how many, you ask? Well, Kendall says he'd like to play six seasons in Milwaukee, which would keep him in a Brewer uniform through his fortieth birthday and give him a good shot at being baseball's all time leader in games played at catcher.
When the Brewers finally do take the field, it will be without Trevor Hoffman, who will need more than 15 days to get ready to pitch in regular season games. He'll play catch today and take it from there. Murray Chass featured Hoffman in his look at closers in new places.
David Riske, however, will be there despite a dismal spring. Tom H. reports the Brewers have no plan to try to move Riske or hide him on the DL, but likely will not use him in important situations.
Alcides Escobar is getting a lot of attention as spring training comes to an end. Peter Gammons listed Escobar as one of the most impressive young players this spring and Prospects Paradise lists him as having the second best glove in the minors. A couple of other minor notes:
- Beyond the Box Score says Caleb Gindl was 17 runs above average in the outfield last season.
- They also rank Taylor Green as exactly average at Mat Gamel at two runs below average at third base.
I'm sure this will sound familiar to anyone who's been following the team for more than a few days, but Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated thinks Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart could have breakout years in 2009.
Are these more relevant than the other projections? It's hard to say.
- None of the 20 experts at ESPN picked the Brewers to make the playoffs. They also have the Crew 14th in their power rankings.
- Of the eight at The Journal Sentinel, none picked the Brewers to win the Central and only Tom H. picked them to win the Wild Card. The eight predictions average out at 84.6 wins for the Crew.
- 26 predictors at The Hardball Times were unanimous in picking the Cubs to win the Central. The Brewers finished third.
- Ken Rosenthal has the Brewers finishing fourth.
Please hold for the deluge of other predictions, projections and rankings:
- Fielder's Choice has the Brewers in fourth.
- The Tennessee Journalist has the Brewers in fourth.
- Texas Rangers Trades has the Crew in fourth too.
- Baseball & The Boogie Down has the Brewers winning 88 games and finishing in second.
- We Will...Never Learn has the Brewers, and every other team in the Central, beating the Pirates.
- Hear the Hurd has the Brewers in second.
- Below the Beltway has the Brewers in third.
- The View From The Dugout thinks the Brewers will win 85-90 and make a run at the Wild Card.
- Bleed Cubbie Blue is picking the Brewers to finish second.
- Happiness for Blessing projects the Brewers for 80 wins and a fourth place finish.
- Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal ranked the Brewers 20th in his preseason power rankings.
- By My Count has the Brewers fourth in the Central.
- Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts thinks the Brewers will win more than 81.5 games.
- One of the eleven contributors at Baseball Digest Daily picked the Brewers to win the division. The consensus pick was third, and no one had them below fourth.
- Chicago White Sox Examiner picked the Brewers to finish fourth.
- Jordan Bastian has the Brewers finishing fourth.
- Talking Chop has the Brewers finishing third.
- Viva El Birdos thinks the Brewers will end up in the middle of the division.
- Phil Rogers' Power Rankings have the Brewers 16th, 15th among actual baseball teams.
- View From The Bleachers has the Brewers third in the Central.
- The Diamond Cutter also has the Brewers third.
- Bill Chuck has the Brewers winning 90 games and finishing second.
- Walk Like A Sabermetrician picked the Brewers to finish third.
- Sully Baseball thinks the Brewers will slide back to mediocrity and trade Prince Fielder. He also predicts Ned Yost will take over mid-season as manager of the Blue Jays.
- David Brown and Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew pick the Brewers second and third in the Central, respectively.
- Backseat Fan is picking the Cardinals to win the Central and the Brewers to finish third.
- Brewed Sports has the Brewers winning the Central.
- The Grand National Championships has the Brewers finishing second behind the Cardinals.
- The Bucky Channel has the Brewers finishing second.
- BC Sports has the Brewers finishing third.
Ok, I'm going to stop there. There were at least a dozen more, probably more, but I think we've seen enough. My apologies if I missed yours. Think you can out-predict these guys? Then you should enter Red Reporter's prediction contest and Beyond The Box Score's 32 predictions. You also have until the end of the day today to get your picks in for The Brew Crew Ball Over/Under contest.
So what happens if the Brewers do underperform in 2009? Between the Green Pillars explores the possibilities of a fire sale, but even if the desire to sell off assets arises, there may not be many buyers out there.
Sounds like Cory Provus is quickly settling into what might be America's greatest job: spending the summer seated next to Bob Uecker. The JS takes a look at their developing partnership.
If given the opportunity to sum up why you're a Brewer fan in one paragraph, could you do it? As part of a project for The National Review, Michael E. Hartmann gave it a shot.
Elsewhere around baseball:
Cubs: Released Chad Gaudin.
Mariners: Placed Ichiro Suzuki on the DL with a bleeding ulcer.
Mets: Signed Gary Sheffield to a one year deal.
Rangers: Released Casey Daigle, perhaps best known for being Jennie Finch's husband. They also released Adam Melhuse.
Reds: Jonny Gomes will not make the Opening Roster and is undecided on reporting to AAA.
Rockies: Acquired Jason Hammel from the Rays for minor league pitcher Aneury Rodriguez.
White Sox: The team has postponed its home opener against the Royals due to snow. They've also become Jimmy Gobble's third team this spring.
I'm not sure how this impacts one's ability to continue to own an MLB franchise, but it can't be good: Rangers owner Tom Hicks has defaulted on over $500 million in debt. If you'd like to own the Rangers, get your checkbook ready.
Even after 100 years, some may never learn: Goat Riders of the Apocalypse has a poll asking Cub fans how many games the team will win in 2009, and not a single voter has gone below 90.
On the other side, someone is finally starting to poke holes in the notion that the Reds are going to make a sudden surge. Surprisingly, that someone is Reds beat writer Hal McCoy.
Maybe they need more sweet potatoes? Jason Giambi swears by them.
Sometimes I wonder if newspaper profiles are sparked by the discovery that someone else in the office doesn't know something: A few weeks after Tom H. followed a mention of Giants prospect Ryan Rohlinger with the phrase "whoever he is," Dave Boehler has a profile of the West Bend native.
I have four links left, and three of them are FanGraphs:
- They're trying out Twitter Feeds to keep you updated on your favorite team's Win Expectancy during games.
- They're also looking at the merits of the Rays' decision to platoon former Brewers Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler.
- And they're sharing my opinion on the ethics of service time manipulation.
Oh, and you're never too old to play with Micro Machines.
Drink up.
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And the count
73 links and 1545 words. Sorry it was late.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
I knew it was going to be big
When there was a delay!!!
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Remember that Jack Zduriencik guy?
The Mariners have abandonned, for now, any plans to have former No. 1 draft pick Phillippe Aumont continue in a starting role. As was the case with Brandon Morrow, a first-rounder from 2006 now serving as a full-time reliever, Aumont has made a swtich to the bullpen.Oh right, I forgot that the Mariners were one ace reliever away from being relevant."We felt that this was a guy, who, if used in a relief role, could be on a real fast-track to the major leagues,‘’ [Zduriencik] said. "And we’re talking a real fast track.’’
In the end, Zduriencik said, it came down to whether the team was willing to wait several more years for Aumont to develop as a potential front-end starter for the rotation — never a guarantee — or go the more likely route of becoming a top bullpen arm in a much shorter timeframe.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
Not only that
But they also just drafted Josh Fields. Seriously, just weird.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
Here's a thought that would be an interesting study.
Say you take two high-level pitching prospects with similar ability, 20 years old. You leave one as a starter and move the other to the bullpen with the hopes of fast-tracking him to the big leagues. By the time they’re 25, both guys may have developed the repertoire to be a big league starter, and both may be. But in the meantime, the reliever works his way up the ladder faster, helps his major league organization sooner and throws fewer pitches in the minors, decreasing the risk of injury.
Big time pitching prospects at low levels are already under really low pitch counts to minimize risk: usually 75-90 pitches. How much are they losing by moving into the bullpen, where they’ll throw more frequent 30 pitch outings?
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
He may lower his risk of injury
But I feel like he would decrease his ability to pitch deep into games. I feel like the one who makes his way to the big leagues as a reliever would develop into a 5 or 6 inning starter.
Aumont won't be challenged to develop a third pitch, for one.
He also won’t build up his stamina, as tcyoung mentioned, or learn to pace himself. Not that he can’t go back to starting after relieving for awhile, but even if they pulled off turning him almost immediately into a successful reliever, the Mariners are bad team and they’re just making him more expensive while burning his service time being bad. And that’s assuming that it doesn’t hurt his ultimate development as a starter, just delay it.
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
That's sort of what the Yankees have..
With Kennedy & Chamberlain…both drafted in ‘06. I think they’re finding that Kennedy is still not ready, and it’s been (and still is) a rocky road for Chamberlain towards becoming a starter after pitching in the bullpen in Triple A and the majors.
by TheBurningRom on Apr 6, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I was going to go to Lookout Landing and now I am afraid to do so
The artist formerly known as jihad.
They never disappoint
Headline: Mariners plan Safeco Field Redesign
You have to look closely near the top of the picture, but it’s worth it.
The artist formerly known as jihad.
Speaking of Opening Day festivities
Is there going to be any sort of banner raising ceremony on Friday at Miller Park? That will definitely affect the time at which I stumble into the park.
That John Heyman article drummed up the Peavy to the Brewers rumor again:
Towers talked extensively this winter to the Braves and Cubs, two teams on Peavy’s original, informal list of teams he might consider (he has a full no-trade now, so it’s up to him). The Brewers have been mentioned as a possibility more recently, and they certainly have what it takes to pull off a deal (hot-shot shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar would be a nice start). Peavy supposedly much prefers the NL. As to whether Peavy would accept a deal to the Brewers … who knows?
Peavy’s contract is
2009…..$11 million
2010…..$15 million
2011…..$16 million
2012…..$17 million
2013*…$22 million
*Club option, with a $4 million buyout
No trade clause only lasts through 2010
San Diego is apparently slashing their payroll a lot. Like into the $40 million range. The team that gets Peavy will likely be the team that will give the most prospects.
I wouldn’t mind giving up Escobar and a guy like Odrozzi for him. We will free up $10 million from Cameron this year, and $10 million from Suppan next year. I know other guys need raises, but aces are tough to find, and we don’t have anybody close to helping in the minors.
But then we won't be able to trade Hardy to the Yankees for Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, and Austin Jacksin :(
jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner
I think that considering what we gave up to get CC
The price for Peavy will be higher. It would not surprise me if the Padres want Gamel and Escobar.
Also if we traded for Peavy we would probably have to trade somebody like Fielder to keep the payroll manageable.
Agreed..
Plus, I’d put more value on Escobar than Peavy at this point. Escobar is young and cheap, while Peavy is getting older (he’ll be 28 in May) and has questionable (at best) mechanics that don’t go hand in hand with a long healthy career.
If you trade Escobar, you almost have to keep Hardy…and that will be costly once he’s out of arbitration after next year.
by TheBurningRom on Apr 6, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Considering what we’re paying Soup, that looks like a deal.
I’d trade Escobar and a few lower guys for Peavy without blinking.
Once Agein
How does Soup’s contract make similar deals OK?
His bad contract should not be a barometer of what the Brewers should do financially.
Joe Morgan
Did anyone notice Joe Morgan talking after the game about how he thinks the Phillies have the resilience to bounce back? Even though they lost the game, he thinks they still have a chance to repeat as champs.
haha
Yea, I caught that. I’m glad he brought me back to reality because I counted the phillies out after that devastating loss.
Weather update
The Redsox/Rays game is off today aswell which a pity since it was the best game of the day.
Cub Castoff
Brewers should try and pick up Chad Gaudin, he’s an upgrade over McClung in the long relief role and they could then move McClung to a set up type position and dump DeFelice or Coffey if need be in a trade or waiver move.
......
wtf? Dump DiFelice? Why? The sample size is too small to prove that he’s better than Gaudin, but it’s also too small to prove that he’s worse.
I’m kind of irrational when it comes to McClung, so I won’t respond to that, except for the fact that I don’t think he would have tried to pick off a pitcher who runs bases at the speed of the two oldest Molina brothers in a three-legged race….
by morineko on Apr 6, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
wtf DeFelice
He’s a 32 year old rookie with below average stuff. There is a reason he is a 32 year old rookie. Guys like that tend to get figured out very fast. If you are fine with him, when he has a 5+ ERA dont say I didnt tell you so.
I like McClung, if he could improve his curveball he would be an awesome closer.
Ok, admittedly, I like DiFelice more than most rational people.
But I also think he’s better than you give him credit for, and as long as he hasn’t been figured out yet, I want to keep him.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Grrrr..
MLB is having a pretty horrible day gameday audio wise. I can’t listen to Cle @ Tex on my PC, but it was working fine on the iPhone @Bat. Now both are coming up with errors… Reds game is fine.
Frustrating… especially since Cliff Lee took a ball off his pitching arm and then sucked.. Jack Z is supposed to be coming in.
Reds
They have Laynce Nix on their opening day roster and it’s not because of injury. Terrifying.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.


























