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Tuesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while preparing an extra special dinner for Opening Day.

FanGraphs Scoreboard

Unfortunately, today's big story may turn out to be the weather. As I write this, it's 54 and cloudy in San Francisco, but it's going to rain and perhaps thunderstorm this afternoon and well into the evening. There does appear to be a window to play a day-night doubleheader tomorrow, but that's the last thing everyone wants to do to open the season.

Small sample size analysis of Opening Day, anyone?

  • The Brewers swept the Giants last season and have not lost to them since August 26 of 2007.
  • The Brewers have hit Lincecum in limited opportunities: He's 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts against them. Ryan Braun has taken him deep twice.
  • Jeff Suppan will start on Opening Day for the fourth time in his career, but the first time since 2002. He's 0-1 with a 7.31 ERA in those starts.

The JS has today's lineups (h/t FanShot). Today's opener is also one of Baseball Musings' Games of the Day.

While waiting around for the start of the season, Adam McCalvy and Doug Melvin sat down with a six pack...of questions, with Melvin discussing roster composition, closers, injuries, payroll flexibility and the aftermath of a postseason appearance.

Braden Looper made his final minor league start this week, throwing 89 pitches over 6 innings, and appears to be ready for his debut at Friday's home opener.

This week's games will also see the debut of a new studio analyst for Brewer games, former Brewer Jerry Augustine.

I thought I waited until the last minute to make my 2009 predictions for the NL Central, but MLB Trade Rumors has done me one better, and waited until Opening Day to release their 2009 Brewer Offseason in Review.

J.J. Hardy is giving Brewer fans a fair amount to be excited about this spring. Obviously, they're just spring training stats, but John Sickels noticed Hardy's 11 spring training walks and says, "If he maintains strike zone judgment like that, he could have a monster season." Hardy also picked up a first place vote in Dugout Central's preseason NL MVP voting.

If you'd like to feel good about baseball on Opening Day, here's a double shot for you: Ken Macha is having a lucky spring and Casey McGehee is profiled in another hometown paper.

If you're looking to watch some baseball in person this weekend but you haven't made plans yet, there may still be hope for you after all. There are reportedly still tickets available for Saturday and Sunday's games against the Cubs, and some grass seating available for the Timber Rattlers opener as well.

While I'm on the subject, here are some other minor notes:

  • The Timber Rattlers roster has been announced. It's probably going to be the biggest collection of pitching prospects in the Brewer system in a long time.
  • Taylor Green is taking longer than expected to recover from his wrist injury and may be out into June. This frees up some time for Vinny Rottino to play third base in Huntsville.
  • Former #1 pick Mike Jones was offered his release over the offseason, but decided to remain with the Brewers. He'll continue to rehab in Brevard County along with Mark Rogers, another former #1 pick.

Barring something unforeseen, this is likely the last batch of predictions and projections for 2009:

Here's an unlikely niche market: Fans who watch baseball in Milwaukee and like to drink but don't know where the bars are. Assuming that niche exists, Drew Olson of OnMilwaukee.com has filled it.

Elsewhere around baseball:

D-Backs: Two switch hitters, Felipe Lopez and Tony Clark, hit home runs in yesterday's opener from both sides of the plate, the first time it had happened since 2000, and the first time ever on Opening Day.
Dodgers: Cleared a space on their 40-man roster by moving Claudio Vargas to the 60-day DL with elbow tendinitis.
Indians: Placed Jamey Carroll on the DL with a broken bone in his hand and added Tony Graffanino to the roster.
Twins: With Joe Mauer already on the shelf, backup catcher Mike Redmond also had to leave yesterday's game with a groin injury.
Yankees: CC Sabathia was seen applying a hot water bottle to his ribs in the dugout yesterday, but he says it was only to stay warm.

So the Marlins are 1-0, they lead the NL East and yesterday's game featured an inside-the-park home run from new acquisition Emilio Bonifacio. Yet somehow, they still only drew 30,000 fans, well below capacity. I'm not convinced a new stadium is going to solve their problems.

That's all for today. Drink up.

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It took one day.

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Never would have had to deal with that in Milwaukee, CC. :(

by warwick5s on Apr 7, 2009 10:01 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Wow

The Yankees sign two traditionally slow starters, and the media is expecting Gherig and Ford out of the gate. It’s fun to watch. On the plus side, I now know where to get quality dental implants with Same Day service. Thanks warwick.

I just sit back and root for the taser
I'm on Twitter now. www.twitter.com/Enrico_Palazzo_

by Hyatt on Apr 7, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know about that

Look how we rag on Suppan for being exactly what it says on his tin or how Corey Hart and Eric Gagne were serenaded by boobirds constantly in 2008.

However—those are all independently arising fan-led behaviors. The Wisconsin media can’t care less about the Brewers than they already do.

by morineko on Apr 7, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You think it's bad up there

If a Cowboy takes a crap or stubs his toe, the Rangers are relegated to page 7 down here

I just sit back and root for the taser
I'm on Twitter now. www.twitter.com/Enrico_Palazzo_

by Hyatt on Apr 7, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

yep, that’s new york city for you…they get really excited for big free agents, but when they fail to be perfect it can get ugly.

If CC stayed in Milwaukee he would have been a hero.

Crimson and Cream Machine
Baseball season = Go Brew Crew!

by dishingoutdimes on Apr 7, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’d be the biggest sports figure in the state now that Favre is permanently gone. I think right now it’s between Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver and Ryan Braun, but none of those guys are huge national stars like CC is.

Plus, if he had taken less money to stay in Milwaukee after single handedly willing them into the playoffs? He’d be walking on water in WI.

Ah well…

by warwick5s on Apr 7, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed.

i have to admit; i really hate the yankees; and i had no problem rooting against CC yesterday…

by Jamie in LA on Apr 7, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree to an extent

However, If he signed for 100 Million Dollars, we would hold him to a standard. Granted, we’re much more forviging than the New York media, but he would only be a hero for so long if his performance wasn’t matching his pay.

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What kind of deal can I get

on those microwave ovens that you need to move? Perhaps a refridgerator?

I just sit back and root for the taser
I'm on Twitter now. www.twitter.com/Enrico_Palazzo_

by Hyatt on Apr 7, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Well, that didn’t take long…

PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.

by Lavender on Apr 7, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting quote from Melvin
For example, we got 50 home runs from Prince Fielder [in 2007] for $450,000. Now he’s going to make a lot more money, and he’s deserving of that money, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to hit 50. His career-best season could have been the year he made $450,000. That happens with most players, not just ours. People judge players’ performances off what they earn, and that’s not always fair.

It’s an awkward system. Personally, I would rather pay the player more money at the lower levels and not have to ever get to paying somebody $13, $14, $15 million. We should distribute the money more evenly, because markets like ours cannot afford to pay players $15 million. We lost our last three [major] free agents here — Carlos Lee [who was traded before he hit free agency], Francisco Cordero and CC Sabathia.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 10:30 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

But even with his contract, they’ll have less control over him into what would have been his free agent period than a team would if they simply signed him to a FA deal. Melvin means that he wants every team to be able to compete to sign FAs, which will of course never happen. No matter how much money you pay players to begin with, teams with deeper pockets would always outbid teams like the Brewers.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would it work to lower FA salaries anyway?

Besides the economic crisis, people keep mentioning that teams – even in the big markets – are getting smarter about their pre-FA players as a reason for why the FA market (especially in mid-range) was so weak this year. Never mind the question of whether it’s actually true – any such development would get reversed pretty quickly if you start paying the pre-FA’s closer to what they’re actually worth, no?

by Zeyes on Apr 7, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

By teams getting smarter about pre-FA players, you mean signing them to Sizemore/Braun/Longoria-type deals?

And you’re saying that would get reversed if you started paying those players closer to what they’re worth? They’re already getting paid closer to what they’re worth—I’m sure that the problem is on my end, but I don’t really follow.

If every team had more money tied up in younger players, it would reduce FA salaries overall, I would imagine, but I don’t see why it would reduce the disparity between what a team like New York can spend for a player on the open market and what a team like Milwaukee can spend, despite reducing both absolute amounts.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, by “smarter” I mean being more trusting in what they might have in homegrown players, rather than trying to fix every team issue with a “proven major leaguer”. I’m trying to say that if you remove one big incentive for doing that (pre-FA’s being so much less expensive, even if you do sign them to Braun-type deals), I could see renewed interest in FA players and thus stronger bidding wars to the financial benefit of those players, and especially involving more players than just the top tier FA’s.

by Zeyes on Apr 7, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, yes.

That makes sense to me.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you, to a point

To effectively make Melvin’s suggestion work, you’d also have to have a maximum players can make, like in the NBA.

I think Melvin’s point was that the Brewers will never be able to consistently compete for $15-20 million annual players, but could hope to compete from time to time if the highest paid players would settle for something like $12 million.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Apr 7, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I'm reading too much into it...

but it seemed to me that he was basically insinuating something like this: if homegrown players were paid more in their first six years, they’d build up less of a feeling of being “exploited” by their drafting team and would be more amenable to taking a hometown discount as a free agent. I guess I could see that happening, but I’d suspect that’s the type of effect that would only last for a few years, untl players simply start taking the higher early salaries for granted.

by Zeyes on Apr 7, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As long as Scott Boras is in baseball

There will always be players who maximize their financial standing, good feelings or not.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by KLSnow on Apr 7, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As long as there is money

There will always be players who maximize their financial standing, good feelings or not.

When Scott Boras leaves baseball, someone will take his place. I would guess that Boras has paved the way for many new agents, and there are probably a good slew of similar guys already representing ball players.

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would hope Melvin is a little wiser than that

Any plan for economic parity that relies on, essentially, people being nice is foolish.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adding on...

Or, to put it another way: I’d be quite wary of simply assuming that teams would have “more money tied up in younger players”, as though that fact itself doesn’t affect the market equilibrium. It could simply mean that teams will be much quicker to non-tender underperforming pre-FA players.

by Zeyes on Apr 7, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"We should distribute the money more evenly"

I don’t think so, comrade. Oh, how I pity you Brewers fans, who are unable to know the joys of paying Francisco Cordero $12 million.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 7, 2009 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Seriously though, wow

That’s a pretty radical (and sensible) quote when it comes to shaking up the pay scale for players. The union will never let that happen, and the owners don’t seem particularly apt to spend their money wisely, but still, kudos to Melvin for demonstrating he knows what’s up.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 7, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, this is a priceless quote from Dusty Baker
“(Alex Gonzalez) playing nine innings. It’s good we have an off day tomorrow.”

link

Is he implying that their starting shortstop can’t play on consecutive days? Or just making a strange non sequitur?

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 10:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, our starting center fielder has us yearning for Willy Taveras

Jesus Christ, I swear I was optimistic about this team just a week or two ago.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 7, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Angels will happily trade you

Gary Matthews! Give Tony Reagins a call….

by Brew Angel on Apr 7, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the low, low price of Aaron Harang

Eh, he gave up one run and lost on Opening Day to Johan Santana. Trade the bum! Get me Matthews here, stat!

by Brendanukkah on Apr 7, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heavy rain moving into San Francisco right now

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USCA0987?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared

We already had to wait so long for opening day, this will be torture if we have to wait until tomorrow!

Crimson and Cream Machine
Baseball season = Go Brew Crew!

by dishingoutdimes on Apr 7, 2009 10:59 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

100% chance precipitation by 3:00 Pacific.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe Tom H had a point...

I just sit back and root for the taser
I'm on Twitter now. www.twitter.com/Enrico_Palazzo_

by Hyatt on Apr 7, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This then begs the question,

Do I miss class this afternoon or get out early tomorrow to catch a double header?

PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.

by Lavender on Apr 7, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But HEY!

Although we may have to wait 2 extra days, we get TWO GAMES as an opener!!!!

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's changed a bit now

The 100% has been pushed back to 4:00. Maybe they’ll be able to get the game in before the skies really open up.

jeff: but i shudder to think of the bullpen analogy to sending the runner

by battlekow on Apr 7, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The fewer innings we have to put on the pitching staff

the better off we’ll be. Though that also means we won’t be able to get into the Giants’ bullpen.

by Brew Angel on Apr 7, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

I was implying a rain shortened game. It’s entirely possible that if we can somehow make it to the halfway point, the entire game will be pitched by Suppan and Lincecum.

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rain letting up

I’m in SF, five blocks from AT&T park and barely getting rained on. Not sure what’s coming later, but there’s some blue sky poking through as we speak. Game on!!

by giants lot on Apr 7, 2009 1:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's still 2.5 hours away, though

I’m sure the Giants wouldn’t be happy if Lincecum goes out there, pitches 3 innings, and then the game gets called.

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

which leads me to my next thought

Will these teams put out different starters, thinking it might be a rain-shortened game?

I seem to recall a couple teams doing that last year: Dodgers vs. Rockies?

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

cloudy

My view from my apartment is directly west/NW…looks like the clouds have gotten a bit lighter, but it’s so hard to predict the weather here. what I’m seeing in the Richmond can be totally different than what’s happening downtown.

by andrew_p on Apr 7, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rare, but not unheard of.

Late March/early April is when rainy season ends. Giants should’ve planned better for sure. What sucks is what we had sunny 70s on Sunday and Monday, which is almost just as rare.

by andrew_p on Apr 7, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jealousy

It’s supposed to warm up to a sultry 46° for our home opener

by tcyoung on Apr 7, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

anyone going today or tomorrow

Andrew, do you have tix for today? I’m sitting in sec. 319 upstairs

by giants lot on Apr 7, 2009 1:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I missed out on the Opening Day lottery

But I’m going tomorrow and Thursday. Sec 131 tomorrow…mixed group with Brewers, Cubs, and Yankees fans. Should be a cold, damp blast!

by andrew_p on Apr 7, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sec. 141

Nice! I’ll be out in Left Center tomorrow with about ten other Wisconsin kids. Double header tomorrow would be fun, but I’m really hoping for baseball today.

by giants lot on Apr 7, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looks like the rain has stopped momentarily in San Francisco

only some spotty showers just offshore out over the Pacific Ocean

Crimson and Cream Machine
Baseball season = Go Brew Crew!

by dishingoutdimes on Apr 7, 2009 1:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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