To Pinch Hit or Not To Pinch Hit
by Nicole Haase on May 11, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
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PrintThe bases were loaded, there were two outs, the Brewers were down by two and Carlos Marmol was on the mound for the Cubs.
In this situation, there were a few options thrown out by the in-game folks:
- Kendall bats for himself
- PH Carlos Corporan
- PH Craig Counsell
- PH Casey McGehee
- PH Yovani Gallardo
- PH Brad Nelson
Remember, too, that the pitcher's spot was up next, so we'd be looking at two consecutive pinch hitters.
There are two main arguments for leaving Kendall to bat for himself in this position:
First, in the Cubs series, Kendall had five hits and three RBI. Over the past ten games, he's raised his BA .59 over the past ten games and only failed to get a hit once in that time.
Kendall is hitting .234 on the season and .342 over the past 10 games. He's also hitting .253 against righties.
Second is that Marmol's ERA against righties this season is 5.23 while against lefties it's 1.93.
This means that Counsell, likely everyone's first choice to be the pinch hitter in this situation, is probably a poor choice, making Kendall an even more appealing option.
The argument for hitting Brad Nelson or Yovani is their power. These two are the ones on the list with the likely home run power.
Of course, Brad Nelson hasn't had a hit this season and YoGa likely hadn't taken BP, so both were outside chances there.
Additionally, Nelson hit just .286 in the minors last season and, as we all know, is 0-for this season, and YoGa is hitting just .200 against lefties.
Corporan was likely to take on of those two PH spots if we were to definitely pull Kendall, but he had just 21 AB at Nashville this season. When you look at a lack of information and Kendall's prolific past few weeks, it seems like a no-brainer to stick with Kendall.
The fact that Marmol was on the mound changes the dynamic completely. The Brewers have not had success against him, making who hits in the situation almost moot - no one on our team hits well against him.
In all of 2008, we had just four hits against Marmol, meaning the odds were against everyone. Prince had the most success against him last season with just two hits (and both of those were at Wrigley) and Corey and Rickie each have one hit. We batted .114 against him all of 2008.
In 24 MLB AB's last season, McGehee his BA was just .167. He's hitting .200 this season, making him an outside shot here.
There was an argument that we should not consider that there would need to be a pinch hitter after this at-bat, as well, but I think it's relevant.
If we assume Counsell gets the first PH, and we assume he got a hit, the likely outcome would have been two runs from a single, at best - meaning that the game would only have been tied and the next person at-bat would also have needed to get a hit for the Brewers to take the lead.
If Counsell recorded an out, the pitcher's spot would have led off the next inning and the Brewers would have been down by a minimum of two runs.
I just find it hard to not consider these situations when deciding whether or not to pinch for Kendall there and it seems to me that the same would be true of Kendall.
The biggest caveat to this whole discussion was if Mike Rivera would not have been on the DL. Were he on the bench, I think I would have pulled Kendall without a second thought.
___
This whole argument is relevant to this game situation only. There have been quite a few times already this season where many of us would have pulled Kendall in favor of a pinch hitter.
However, the lack of power or successful hitting our bench really has Macha's hands tied in these situations, I think. A lack of someone like Russell Branyan or Gabe Kapler or Joe Dillon or Gabe Gross on the bench this season absolutely changes our pinch hitting dynamic.
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How do we calculate ERA for righties vs. lefties?
“Second is that Marmol’s ERA against righties this season is 5.23 while against lefties it’s 1.93. "
I was under the impression that this stat was never calculated because of the inherent bias. If a righty hits a triple to lead off the inning, then a lefty drives him in with a single, is that an earned run against the lefty? Even thought the righty did more damage with the triple?
I could imagine creating some sort of Runs Created stat for lefties and righties, but the ERA thing doesn’t make much sense to me. Am I missing something?
Counsell then Nelson
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
BK
when in the hell did we start agreeing on stuff?:P
Usually you’re calling me on me being an idiot (see my “gut instinct” about DiFelice being crappy, when I see now that he’s quite good), but the last couple of days we’ve been shockingly agreeable to each other;)
wtf?:P
by PagsBrewCrew on May 11, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...
This question is like asking, out of a set of four limbless, blind octogenarians and a guy with a psoriasis, who would you prefer attempt to pilot your airplane in an emergency?
Yeah, the guy with bad skin isn’t an ideal choice and your plane is probably gonna crash no matter what, but at least he can friggin’ see. The reason we agree is because we both have a modicum of common sense (or maybe you got lucky).
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
yeah...
i’m going with “got lucky” because it sounds more fun.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 11, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Not Using 5 Weeks of Data Would be Best
I second that an ERA split makes no sense and that OPS against would be better:
Marmol, 2009
vs RHB as RH: .675 OPS Against, 47 PA
vs LHB as LH: .872 OPS Against, 24 PA
But what the heck is 24 PA going to tell us about Marmol’s true skill against LH hitters? Pretty much… nothing. At least look at his career:
vs RHB as RH: .574OPS Against, 643 PA
vs LHB as LH: .745 OPS Against, 417 PA
Even then, the sample size is pretty small and we’d need to know the baseline talent of all the lefties he faced and all the righties. A sample size like that is going to be regressed almost all the way towards league average, I would think.
This is the time of the year where you hear announcers talking about all sorts of silly reverse platoon splits. You don’t hear about it nearly as much in Septermber. I wonder why?
And we should use an updated projection of Kendall that doesn’t weight his last 20 PA anymore than any of his other 2009 PAs.
by rluzinski on May 11, 2009 12:43 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
"Marmol" is Spanish for "Venditte"
Imagine Venditte with actual stuff!
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
I had to choose the squeeze by Suppan… simply because as you stated, all of the options kind of suck
by Saberilliterate on May 11, 2009 12:50 PM CDT reply actions
with two outs?
the only one I trust to get a gritty bunt hit is counsell. Or maybe hart or bill hall.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 11, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Tristar
Thanks for the clarification of the righty-lefty split.
My gut still says Counsell for the first pinch-hit AB, even despite that Marmol and Counsell’s right-lefty splits, but not by as much of an overwhelming majority. Anyway: what has Kendall’s brewers-tenure BA been during late-inning situations vs early-inning situation. Ie, does he “wear down” as the game goes on, making him less likely to get a hit. Obviously, you can’t really trust a 10-game split for last-at bat, so we just have to assume that he’ll perform at about his current-phase-in-career-average.
For the second pinch-hit, I’d primarily want someone with patience – someone willing to take a walk to let Weeks have a shot at batting (regardless of whether the bases are loaded at the time).
“There was an argument that we should not consider that there would need to be a pinch hitter after this at-bat, as well, but I think it’s relevant.”
It was I that made this general argument. My point was that you HAVE to use a pinch hitter where the pinch hitter gives you ANY sort of advantage in a late-inning high leverage situation. If this high leverage situation generates an even higher leverage situation, that’s all well and good, but you needed to get through the first high leverage situation to see the second high leverage situation. So, you can’t plan for every what-if. If you KNEW that McGehee would get a walk batting for Kendall, of course you’d bat McGehee first and then slot Counsell in for the pitcher’s slot (which would be a higher leverage situation than the bases-loaded-down-by-two). But you have a better chance of a walk-or-hit with Counsell batting for Kendall than McGehee (because the walk is certainly not guaranteed). So, you bat Counsell first and hope for a positive outcome, then deal with the outcome when it happens.
“If Counsell recorded an out, the pitcher’s spot would have led off the next inning and the Brewers would have been down by a minimum of two runs.”
Verses the situation that we did have that the pitcher did lead off the next inning?:P In any case, the fact that it’s the pitcher’s slot is somewhat irrelevant as long as you still have a bench player left at that point in time (yes, the strength of that player as a pinch hitter does matter for the 9th), but in any case in the bottom of the 9th, the pitcher’s day is done anyway.
As to Gallardo batting: I agree with you that it’s unlikely that he took BP coming off a 100+ outing the previous day, so would probably not be stretched out to do it. As much as I have man-love for him, he’s not a good option. Bush might be an option there, but again, only if he took BP, and Nelson despite his suckitude is still a better option there.
OBP is WAY More Important Than SLG With the Bases Loaded
Counsell against a righty is easily going to have the higher expected OBP than Kendall (even after you consider that batters don’t do as well as pinch hitters), so I think keeping Kendall in there was a very bad call. Without running any numbers, I would expect Counsell to have the highest projected OBP among any of the options, so he would have been my choice.
And I wouldn’t let the fact that a second PHer was needed in any way influence who I choose as the first PHer.
OBP is WAY More Important Than SLG With the Bases Loaded
This the key thing here, you need somebody to get on base and Counsell is the best bet of a mediocre bunch. Marmol in his career ( since when was 15inns a big enough sample size to decide that RH fair better than LH against Marmol?) has allowed LH hitter to get on base at .338 compared to RH at .298 Counsell is also the guy the best track record at taking a walk something Marmol had done twice already in the inning. If you then need a 2nd PH then you can either use Nelson or Corporan although Nelson is definately the guy I would want up.
You are trying to atleast tie the ballgame, if you need to use 2 or even more PHs in one inning to achieve that then so be it, it is better than losing.
Let Me Clarify...
OBP is more important than SLG in that situation (down by two in the bottom of the 8th, with 2 out and the bases loaded).
I'm in favor of the suicide squeeze from Suppan only if it involves actual suicide
Bonus points if he uses the bat to commit harakiri.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
We can sell t-shirts to offset the remaining salary burden
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
It didn't necessarily make sense to pinch hit for Kendall yesterday
But we’ve been harping on that all year. There have been many situations this year where it would have made COMPLETE sense to PH for Kendall.
yeah, hard to blame Macha for this one
but the other 2 or 3 times made me instinctively get angry this time.
Who would you have catch if pinch hit?
Corporan? Never caught in the big league yet and don’t want to him to start in the 9th inn. against the Cubs. Had to stick with Kendall.
Corporan
If you can’t trust him to catch one inning during a game in May, he shouldn’t be on the roster.
The only reason Corporan is still in professional baseball is because he's a good defensive catcher.
Why do you think he was on the 40-man roster to begin with? Plus, if you’re going to go with the “jitters” argument, he actually made his catching debut against Cincinnati in the 15-3 game, catching two innings.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
He did catch in a game… the blow out last week in which he got his first ML hit.
by Saberilliterate on May 12, 2009 6:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Re: Splits
Counsell 2008 vs. RHP: .229/.358/.308
Kendall 2008 vs. RHP: .245/.324/.324
I guess you could say Counsell would have had a better chance of drawing a walk there, but then you’re still down a run and have to use one of Nelson/Duffy/McGehee/Corporan, none of which are better options than Kendall.
Going entirely by the numbers you can either:
1) Leave Kendall in, who is the best option to actually get a hit and score >1 run, then PH Counsell in the next spot.
2) PH Counsell, who is the best option to draw a walk and score 1 run, then PH someone worse than Kendall who probably is going to end the inning.
It seems to me that even going just by the numbers, Kendall is still the better option to actually tie the game or take the lead.
Either way, the numbers are so close that you can’t realistically claim statistics favor one or the other. All things considered, there was no compelling reason for Macha to PH for Kendall there, and nobody should be blaming the outcome of the game on that one at-bat.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Please Read My First Post
Counsell had 58 PA against RHers last year. Using that as your estimate of his true talent against RHers is a poor choice. Some batters may have atypical platoon splits but I think “The Book” found that a batter has to have over 1,000 AB against a particalar hand before it’s worth even looking at their platoon splits. You are probably better off just assuming a league average platoon split and going from there.
ZiPS updated their projections at the end of April:
Kendall: .257 / .332 / .317 / .649, .298 wOBA
Counsell: .236 / .346 / .308 / .653. .306 wOBA
Kendall has the platoon disadvantage, Counsell has the platoon advantage but the PH disadvantage. When I get home, I can look up the league averages for each but Counsell is going to win out on this pretty easy with this approach. And even if you want to consider their career splits, Counsell has done very well against RHers in his career, when compared to LHers.
?
Counsell had 275 PA against RHP last year…
And if you don’t consider that a large enough sample, it’s actually doing him a disservice in this discussion because his career OBP against RHP is only .348.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Opps Again
I need to stop looking up splits on my phone.
Using one year’s worth of platoon split data is not superior to just using Counsell’s updated projection and assuming a league average split. Look at even a full time player’s platoon splits from year to year. You will see them fluctuate pretty dramatically at times. Do you think his true platoon skills are fluctuating? Of course not. It’s just sample error.
Counsell GS there would have been the greatest moment in baseball history.
Hm, maybe we should be factoring in the awesome-potentiality. Even if Kendall somehow scored three runs, I still probably would have yawned at however he managed to do it.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Winner
I won a bet yesterday when Kendall tripled. I bet my buddy that he would get a triple before a home run. My thinking is that he lacks even warning track power anymore, until recently he hasn’t got many out of the infield grass. So despite all that has been said, with bases loaded with the infield drawn in, he is the worst option.
Good news is that I get to slap my buddy in the face the next time I see him.
"You combine the fact that they're good at everything and we're good at nothing, it's not going to be a very pretty outcome." -Ryan Braun
That that was scored a triple is an indictment of Tim O'Driscoll
(cue TheJay)
Did you see how long it took Soriano to wheel around and get that ball back into the infield? Usually Bill’s righteous indignation annoys me, but he was right on with that one, especially in his comment about how the guy pitching must feel when his outfielder is effectively standing around picking his nose out there.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
what would the error be scored then?
E7(general douchy laziness)
There’s not really much O’Driscoll can do there really. If a slow, inept fielder like late-career Bonds or whole-career Dunn takes a nap on the way to picking up the ball, it’s not one of the things you can charge an error for. I guess a fielding error would be the closest, but it’s still not close enough.
I was actually unaware that this clause was in the rules
Rule 10.12(a)(1) Comment: Slow handling of the ball that does not involve mechanical misplay shall not be construed as an error…The official scorer shall not score mental mistakes or misjudgments as errors unless a specific rule prescribes otherwise.
That seems pretty silly, especially with their “every base must be accounted for” mentality. I understand that scoring it a triple also accounts for the base advanced, but basic common sense needs to come into play here.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
same would apply to Prince's under-the-outfield-fence inside-the-park-homerun
i learned as a result of that play, and others around that time that “mental” fielding errors aren’t scored as such.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 11, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions
if common sense were involved
there would be a heck of a lot more outfield errors. I’m failing at looking this up, but there was a play against the Reds I think(incredibly unsure of the team) where the RF lost the ball in the lights, covered his head and allowed a double. Why is this not an error when a hot smash off Weeks’ glove is? This also happened in a WBC game. The rules for outfielders are silly, but they are what they are.
Having been in LF for two Cubs games, this year
I’m guessing Soriano was too busy listening to the crowd yell at him to hustle.
C'mon Brew Crew Ball
This site is WAY better than this. Using one month of data as a significant sample size????
Others mentioned it, but I just wanted to jump in.
Regardless of where you stand on the issue (and I would have pinch hit), the level of analysis needs to be better than breaking down Casey McGehee’s 24 at bats or Marmol’s ERA vs. LH or RH THIS YEAR only.
I can’t imagine that Jeff would have posted such shoddy analysis.
Sorry I didn't deliver
I’m well aware that I’m not on the analytical level of many of you and I had tried to craft my post to present information to start a discussion. I wasn’t trying to present any of it as hard fact or concrete reasons for why they should or should not be used – I mostly was trying to pass on the information I found in order to start a conversation.
The discussion came up in the IGT last night and Kyle said I should post about it, so I did.
I’m a writer first and foremost, which means that math is so far on the other side of my brain I haven’t seen it in awhile. Stats aren’t my forte, which we’ve all seen and pointed out here. I’m learning as I go – that’s why I’m here – and I apologize that the information wasn’t up to standard.
I’m absolutely certain Jeff wouldn’t have posted this. Not only am I not on the same page as he is, I’m not even in that book – and I would never claim to be.
With Nelson and McGehee not having spent any time in the minors this season, their stat pages from MiLB are fairly limited and I wasn’t able to get the past season’s information or splits like I would have wanted, so I used what I had access to. I felt like using the information we did have on them was at least relevant knowledge to have.
I’m clearly not the stat-head that everyone else here is and I put more emphasis on current trends than you seem to. I felt Marmol’s current season ERA vs RH and LH had a large enough difference that I thought it was at least worth noting and taking into consideration.
This certainly isn’t the impression I hoped to make when I joined the site. I’ll leave the stats to those who know better than I and I hope you guys give me another chance.
by Nicole Haase on May 11, 2009 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions
nothing personal
I apologize if it came across as harsh. I just think that the site has set some high standards for statistical analysis in the past. It can be a tough standard to live up to. Don’t get discouraged. I stil disagree with the post, but hey, disagreement is part of the discourse on a site like this. Keep firing away.
For the record, Marmol is much better against righties than lefties traditionally.
by badgermaniac on May 11, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought the post was great
You brought up some great points about having to use 2 pinch hitters, and certainly provoked thoughtful discussion. The statistical analysis of this sight (Witrado stole my keyboard for a second) is great, but the thoughtful discussion is the bread and butter. Maybe it’s just because it’s an off-day, but there are 45 very thougthful comments on this post.
Nope not at all
I loved it. I’m still trying to learn the whole statistical analysis on many things, and many times it is overwhelming being bombarded with it. Posts like this that are thoughtfully done and bring up good points are a great way to facilitate discussion in a different manner than we are used to here, but I think the discussion that ensued was just as good. Keep it up!
That was uncalled for.
If you didn’t like the post, you didn’t like the post and that’s too bad.
Tristar, though, wrote the post I asked her to write here: a conversation starter and poll on whether or not Jason Kendall should be pulled for a pinch hitter in this situation and similar ones. No, it’s not what Jeff would have written. Neither is almost everything I write. If you think you can do better, the FanPost section is always open.
In the meantime, though, I wanted a conversation on whether or not Kendall should have been pulled, and I got one. So I don’t think questions about whether or not the site is “better” than this are warranted.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
a little harsh buddy
the most important thing to do is start a discussion.
I do wonder if the vote results are affected by the opening argument from a “contributing member.” 2:1 for Kendall? Really?
But aside from that, the facts are getting filtered through the comments on this blog until we get the real “story”. And it’s obvious to me that the pinch-hit-for-him-dammit camp is very vocal in our little neck of the woods. Now we need to write up majority and minority opinions, akin to the Supreme Court and sent our opinions to Macha, Melvin, Mark A., or even Counsell (union rep, right?) :P
by PagsBrewCrew on May 12, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Just ask the question then
The question can be asked without the attempt at statisicaly analysis. I don’t blame her if she was asked to write it. If the sabermetric stuff isn’t her strong suit (which she admits), that is more of an assignment issue.
Just my $0.02, but let her write up the situation and get the conversation started without putting her into a position that isn’t her strength.
by badgermaniac on May 12, 2009 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree. There was no need to Pinch Hit
I agree that pinch hitting for Kendell was a bad idea yesterday. The only real option was CC and in that situation he’s just not significantly better. Marmol’s much better against lefties and I think the best CC would have done would have been to walk. Then what? CC’s on and we still need someone else to pinch hit. We’ve got a bunch of guys who don’t even have enough at bats to get a feel for how they’d do.
I also agree that if Rivera is back, there’s no question to pinch hit. But he’s not there yet and all we’ve got to rely on to make a decision are a bunch of hitters with small sample sizes.
Bad logic
1. Historically, Marmol is MUCH better against RH, not LH. Which are you going to belive, the previous 1000+ plate appearances before this year, or the 50 or so of this year?
2. Brad Nelson had a .920 OPS last year against righties. When you translate that to the majors, which translates to about an .800 OPS in the majors. Compare that to Kendalls .640 OPS vs. righties last year. Those numbers carry a lot more weight than 20 at bats this year.
Aside from the greater possibility of an extra base hit with Nelson, which probably wins the game, you can worry about who hits next AFTER he ties it up (presumably).
by badgermaniac on May 11, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Nelson
He wouldn’t be my first call overall. I’d prefer to not have him in a high-pressure PH opportunity until he (excuse the language) pops his 2009 Milwaukee cherry. In a situation down two with the bases loaded, he’d probably be swinging for the fences, rather than just trying to get the ball into play and plate one to two, or take a walk and plate one. To use a term from last season: he’d be “pressing” too much – and thus more likely to choke.
I’d rather have Counsell in there first. Then perhaps I’d be okay with Nelson (even though it might be an even higher pressure/leverage situation) because he seems to be our only viable option remaining. As I said before, the only situation you need to really factor for pinch hitting in the late game is the one in front of you: counsell was the best option and we had a significant chance of getting a run or 4 (well…with Counsell the chance of 4 is infintesimal…but you get my point). If Counsell draws a walk and Nelson (or whoever else) strikes out, we’re only down 1 and the top of our order is coming up, with Braun getting a guaranteed at bat. I generally like our chances with Braun coming up with the bases empty down 1.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 12, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Right.
This is the point a lot of people seem to be missing: Even if you go all out and end up burning 3 bench players in this situation, you have to play the situation by itself. If the Brewers score two runs and go to extra innings, they would do it with a short bench and decreased chance of winning. But, if they didn’t manage to force extra innings at all, they lose 100% of the time.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
???
Ridiculous. Having a short bench is not going to be an issue unless the game goes about 5 more innings.
Let’ say that Nelson/Counsell comes through and ties it up and the game goes extra innings. The top of the order is up to lead off the next inning. The next time you would need to use the bench would be if you went 9 batters deep (without scoring). That is probably going to be what…2 or 3 innings right there.
When the pitcher comes up again, you use McGehee or Duffy or whomever is left on your bench (don’t have the box in front of me), which then allows you another 8 batters.
Obviously, the pitching is probably not affected by this, which is the most important aspect of playing extra innings.
To chalk it up as a 100% loss in extra innings just furthers my point that I made iniitially. It is a perfectly legit question to ask whether Kendall should have been pinch hit for. Reasonable minds can disagree. However, the iniitial analysis was poor and frankly, didn’t need to be there to pose the question.
Just pose the question and let someone else break it down if your writer does not have the expertise (as she admitted). That is just putting her in a bad spot.
by badgermaniac on May 12, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I think you misread my response.
I didn’t say it was a 100% loss if they went to extra innings. I said it was a 100% loss if they failed to force extra innings.
But, as always, your pissy, confrontational attitude is appreciated.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by Kyle Lobner on May 12, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
that last sentence
is sig worthy
Maybe it’s time to whip out one of these
by PagsBrewCrew on May 12, 2009 11:34 PM CDT up reply actions
(in case you missed the reference earlier)
that’s an image of a “Chat Douche” (see link for translation)
you know… assuming no image fail above. Most of the credit on this one goes to BK.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 13, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
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