JJ Hardy vs. Chase Utley, A Waiting Game

by TheJay on May 14, 2009 8:10 PM CDT Comment 9 comments

The two MLB players least likely to swing at the first pitch this year.

What do Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy and Phillies second baseman Chase Utley have in common? Well, they're both middle infielders, they both grew up in the Southwest, they both made their major league debuts on April 4, and both have only played for one major league franchise, but I'm not looking for any of those.

Instead, I want to point out their shared patience. Specifically, their shared patience on 0-0 counts. Take a look at the major league leaders in this category, courtesy of the STATS.com leaderboards (through last night - any errors counting today's plate appearances are my own):

Lowest Percentage of Times Swung at the First Pitch

Chase Utley, 3.73 (5/134)
JJ Hardy, 3.79 (5/132)
Adam Lind, 9.62 (15/156)
Chris Getz, 9.80 (10/102)
Franklin Gutierrez, 9.83 (12/122)
David Eckstein, 9.86 (14/142)
Kevin Youkilis, 10.91 (12/110)
Dustin Pedroia, 11.32 (18/159)
Bobby Abreu, 11.35 (16/141)
Endy Chavez, 11.57 (14/121)

The difference between Utley and Hardy and the rest of the league is pretty jarring. Utley flew out on the first pitch in the 8th inning of today's game. That was the first time he'd swung at the first pitch in a plate appearance since he fouled off a Seth McClung offering...on April 21. That was 80 plate appearances before today's fly out. His only other first pitch put in play was a single off Shairon Martis on April 16.

What about Hardy? He batted four times today and took the first pitch each time. Maybe he's got the right idea, as he hasn't found success swinging at pitch #1 this year. His five such swings:

April 18 vs. Johan Santana: Groundout to SS
April 21 vs. Jamie Moyer: Groundout to SS
April 30 vs. Jon Rauch: Flyout to LF
May 3 vs. Yusmeiro Petit: Strike swinging
May 9 vs. Ryan Dempster: Strike swinging

Lest you think Hardy is having a fluky year, know he's always been hesitant to swing at the first pitch. Over 1965 career plate appearances, he's swung at the first pitch 9% of the time, compared to the MLB average of 26%. His most hacktastic year was his rookie season in 2005, when he swung at 12% of first pitches. In his injury-abbreviated 2006 season, he swung at only 3% of first pitches faced.

Hardy's competition at the top this year hasn't always been quite so tentative. Utley has swung at 18% of first pitches faced over his career, with a high of 24% in 2004 and low of 15% in 2008. I wonder what has made him so patient this year. If Utley reverts to form, Hardy will soon end up being far ahead of the pack in first pitch patience.

So if pitchers know Utley and Hardy aren't swinging at the first pitch this year, are they pounding the zone to get ahead 0-1? Looking at each player's splits by count (specifically the After 0-1 and After 1-0 splits), it would seem not. Hardy has seen 70 balls and 57 called strikes on the first pitch. Utley is a bit more complicated since he's taken 4 first pitch HBP's and fouled off three first pitches, but he has seen 66 balls and 62 called strikes (STATS says Utley has one more PA than Baseball-Reference does). It certainly doesn't seem like pitchers are taking advantage of a "free" strike.

Finally, a word about the Brewers' other first pitch taker. Light-hitting catcher Jason Kendall has swung at 16 of 121 first pitches this year, or 13.22%. He has also been pretty patient over his career, swinging at only 12% of pitches to start an AB. His low was 3% in his final year with the Pirates and his career high is 18%, done in 1998 and 2008. If you ever see Hardy and Kendall swinging at the first pitch in the same inning, or even the same game, something strange is going on.

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very interesting

JJ is so streaky, that I am curious if his behavior changes when he gets hot… like April-May, 2007 or June-July, 2008, Maybe he lulls pitchers into throwing it right in the center of the plate, and then decides to swing at some point?

by keephopealive on May 14, 2009 8:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering somethign similar

If he’s practically never swinging at the first pitch, what’s the ball-to-strike ratio? It seems like pitchers would take the opportunity to put a mediocre fastball by him for a free strike.

by ecocd on May 14, 2009 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So far this year

He’s seen 70 first pitch balls and 57 first pitch called strikes to go with his 5 swings.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 14, 2009 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Anti-Estrada

It’s like he watched Estrada and thought, I’m never going to be that way.

by drezdn on May 14, 2009 9:48 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Edited

Lind didn’t end up playing tonight, so I took out that disclaimer. I also included the first pitch balls and first pitch called strike totals of Hardy and Utley per ecocd’s comment.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 14, 2009 9:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

1st pitch strikes?

What is the date regarding the pitches that go by that are called for strikes? As most of us know the first pitch is the best pitch a hitter will see a lot of the time.

And then a subsequent question might be if a high percentage of those pitches do go for strikes, Hardy is behind in the count, what is the percentage of bad pitches that he swings at/hits?

by backtocali on May 14, 2009 9:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

"As most of us know the first pitch is the best pitch a hitter will see a lot of the time."

Is that actually true? Has anyone ever done a study on it? I’m not trying to be a smartass, I’m genuinely curious; that seems like it’d be a perfect pitch-f/x article for Hardball Times or something.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on May 14, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You forgot a player:

Ben Sheets – 0.0001%

Sometimes he doesn’t even take his bat out there, he’s that patient.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 15, 2009 12:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

and

he is so patient with free agency that he still hasn’t signed a contract

by molitorfan on May 15, 2009 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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