Replacing Rickie Weeks: Internal vs External Options
by Kyle Lobner on May 19, 2009 2:00 PM CDT
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PrintNow that we've had almost 24 hours to digest the news that Rickie Weeks will likely miss the rest of 2009, we're starting to see more and more conversation about the options to play second base every day. Buster Olney says the Brewers will look at what they have first:
A baseball source made it clear Monday night that the Brewers will first examine internal options. First and foremost of those is Craig Counsell, whose chances of keeping the job might improve if Mat Gamel upgrades the Brewers' offense with how he hits at third base, and Gamel mashed a homer Monday night. The Brewers, the source says, "are not looking outside yet."
(Thanks to Battlekow, who linked this note in today's Mug comments.)
At first glance, this seems somewhat illogical. Ray Durham and Mark Grudzielanek, two proven major league second basemen, are sitting at home while Casey McGehee, Craig Counsell and others compete for an everyday spot. It seems like the Brewers should already be on the phone with one of these guys. But there's three factors that complicate matters here and make it anything but a clear cut decision:
Time. Both Durham and Grudzielanek are free agents, and neither went to camp with a team this spring. That means neither of them could sign today and play tomorrow: they'd need some time to get ready. If either of these guys signed today, they'd probably report to extended spring training in Arizona on Thursday or so, spend a week to ten days there, then go to Nashville for a couple of weeks, then report to the Brewers. All that means it'd be a month before they'd be ready to contribute. By then, Alcides Escobar might be ready to make the jump to the big leagues anyway.
Age. Durham is 37 years old. Grudzielanek is 38. Even if the Brewers signed one of these guys and invested all the time and effort into getting them ready for the big leagues, there's no guarantee they'll be able to perform at a high level once they get there. Durham was projected to be around a .255/.333/.409 hitter in 2009, and Grudzielanek was about the same, around .280/.330/.400. These numbers aren't embarassing, but they're not very good either, and there's a decent chance one or a combination of the four of Casey McGehee, Hernan Iribarren, Jason Bourgeois and Craig Counsell could perform at that level.
Money. Ray Durham made $7 million or more each of the last five seasons. Grudzielanek just finished a run with the Royals that paid him $12.5 million over three years. I don't know what Grudz received for offers this offseason, but Durham turned down $850,000 and the opportunity to win the everyday job with the Nationals this spring. If it costs the Brewers $2.5-3 million to convince one of these guys to dust off their glove and come on board, that may eliminate any budget flexibility the Brewers had been saving for a move at the trade deadline.
The more I think about it, the less I like the idea of signing one of these guys. What do you think?
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What's Weeks' contract status?
How many years before FA for him?
I believe Weeks is arb eligible after the season, and would be a free agent after 2010.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
He was arb-eligible this past offseason and will be a FA after 2011
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Ah, that's right.
He was not eligible for 2008, but received $1+ million anyway because the CBA didn’t allow him to take a pay cut over 20%.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Iribarren was called up, so I guess that settles that, for the short term anyway
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Good points with the salary; would rather have the flexibility at the end of the year
The Brewers can continue to make things work internall I hope…
Now what about a trade, if the internal options don’t seem to be working and it would take too long and too expensive to get these older free agents in uniform, what about a trade for a player at 2B with an expiring contract, and another rent a player?
Mark Derosa I was thinking of is on contract fro 5.5 million for 09. Might be a type A Free agent when the brewers don’t resign him, and pay him his $2million this year… and shores up depth in the OF which is very weak right now, as well as SS, 3B and could give Prince a day off too… package a prospect or two if near the deadline the Brewers are still playing well.
I know the Brewers need the farm system for the future, but considering how cheap the Indians got Derosa for, maybe it wouldn’t require a top prospect.
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Cot’s has these players listed as other 2B with expiring contracts, anyone else appeal to people here?
Marlon Anderson NYM
Ron Belliard WAS
Jamey Carroll CLE
David Eckstein SD
Orlando Hudson LAD
Akinori Iwamura * TB
Omar Infante ATL
Felipe Lopez ARZ
Placido Polanco DET
Freddy Sanchez * PIT
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
They appeal to me as much as eating raw chicken in a dirty chinese restaurant…
by Saberilliterate on May 19, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Eckstein's plausible
except he’s the only healthy middle infielder in the entire Padres organization, so they might not want to part with him.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 19, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Eckstein
I would be concerned about a grit overload. Kendall and Eckstein together might tear a hole in the time-space continuum and cause our Brewers universe to collapse in on itself.
by juggernaut400 on May 19, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
If we're going to bring in Eckstein...
We should probably see if the ’Stros are interested in swapping Erstad for Duffy. With Kendall, Eckstein, and Erstad, our grittiness would be in another stratosphere. Probably good for another 15-20 wins this year.
I bet Eckstein and Counsell
… could do a killer Huckleberry Finn and Tom Sawyer routine in the dugout if given the proper overalls and flannel shirts.
Internal
It would be nice to have a strick platoon with CC and Casey M at second.
by Saberilliterate on May 19, 2009 2:20 PM CDT reply actions
I'd like to see Gamel and Hall platoon at third
And Counsell+Iribarren platoon with Hall at second. McGehee can give the foot massages.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
I'd like to get the foot massage from Gamel
Did you see how fast those hands were yesterday?
Internal
We have tons of possible replacements internally, might as well try them before spending more money. Also, how about Adam Heether? He’s been hitting pretty well for a couple of years now, and is off to a great start this season.
by richardhkirkando on May 19, 2009 2:27 PM CDT reply actions
Getting sent from AAA to AA usually is a sign your team doesn't foresee a use for you
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
True, but IIRC, didn’t he request that move in order to get more playing time? I thought I read somewhere that he wanted to work on his SS defense, and wasn’t going to play in Nashville with Escobar around.
by richardhkirkando on May 19, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
EXTERNAL
Re: Grudzielanek/Durham
Time: The fact that they will have to take extended spring training only makes it more of an imperative to sign one of them as soon as possible. It’s not convenient, but a month with a Counsell-barren platoon is better than the remainder of the season with a Counsell-barren platoon.
Age: Yes, they are both old, but the have both put up numbers consistently better than any reasonable expectation of internal options and there’s no reason to expect a dramatic drop off. Grudzielanek has hit above .290 for the past six seasons, and considering how Durham played last season, his weak 2007 campaign seems like the aberration.
And, for the record, Craig Counsell is older than Durham and younger than Grudzielanek by just a couple months.
Money: Nobody is suggesting we offer them $3+ million, and I don’t think either of them expect that either. Durham turned down the deal with the Nationals because he was mulling retirement and probably wasn’t too enthused about a minor league contract with a chance to win a starting job for a definite non-contender, especially considering the decent season he had just had. If anything will bring him out of retirement at a reasonable price, it’s a starting job on a contending team which he is already familiar with.
I don’t know how much Grudzielanek is asking, but if he wants to play this season at all, I’m sure he recognizes what he is reasonably worth.
It would be nice to have payroll flexibility later, but if you ask me, losing one of the team’s key players is the sort of emergency in which you spend what you can afford. A couple million is better spent now, when it’s needed, than on hopes of skating by with Counsell-barren and a desire for the luxury of flexibility in the future.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Grudzielanek ready in a week
According to this article in late April, Grudz is still hitting, running, etc… and thinks he can be ready to play in a week. It also says “he opportunity to play for a contender ranks well above finances on his list of priorities”. Crasnik isn’t my favorite writer, but I’ll let you decide for yourselves.
He’s a type B free agent, as the Royals offered him arbitration, but that means the Brewers wouldn’t need to surrender anything to sign him.
by Capt Science on May 19, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Cot's says boo to your choices
Boo!
How about Marcus Giles? Released by the Phillies 6 weeks ago, right before the season started, so I’d assume we could get him for the league minimum and he’s mostly in game shape. Of course, he’s probably not any good, but then again, neither are our other options. :)
There’s also Damion Easley, though my stomach is only so strong to write this post.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
UZR/150 averages at 2B 2006-08
- Grudzielanek: 10.8
- Durham: -6.5
- DeRosa: -8.1
Grudz would be a quality pickup. We have enough 3B now, so McGehee’s ability to play there is pretty moot. Grudz would be a significant upgrade over him.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Grudz
He would be my choice as well. I think he’d be a significant improvement over their other choices.
by kingcharlesxii on May 19, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Geoff Jen-...ahhh, never mind
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Internal
I’m pretty sure Grudz is also a Type A free agent, so they would have to give up a pick to sign him.
This was covered 4 comments ago.
Grudzielanek is a Type B free agent, so the Royals would get a compensation pick but the Brewers would not lose one.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs tackles the same question and pats the Brewers on the back for their depth.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
i concur
If we get Grudz or Durham, they are not everyday players and would almost prefer not to spend the extra million and a roster spot for someone that is simiiar and already in the organization
I would prefer to trade for an everday player like Derosa and keep Counsell playing 3 games a week as a backup 2B and SS or so to stay fresh… and play Hall/Gamel at third
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Repeating what I said in the Mug
I would do a strict Hall/Gamel platoon at 3B.
I would also do a strict Iribarren/McGehee platoon at 2B.
Counsell can still get two or three starts a week at 2B/SS/3B. He’ll still pinch hit and stay in as a defensive replacement.
I’d probably go ahead and have Hart lead off and have the 3B bat 6th and the 2b bat 7th.
Try it for a month and see how it works. A lot of teams get by with a light hitting second baseman. We will too.
I could live with this.
I don’t know if it’s the answer or not, but at least after a month we’d be in a pretty good position to evaluate all four players.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
I vote for this option too
And if it isn’t working out at the end of the month i.e. can’t live with Gamel’s defense and his offense isn’t translating on the major league level
and/or the 2B is an automatic out, make a move via a trade
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
I really wish they'd give Hall some reps at second
If he can still handle it, he would make McGehee superfluous and the team could look for a right-handed 4th OF bat.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Well that will be an interesting situation
as much as I want to see him play, is there really any reason to think he’s going to be even a decent option? I’d expect about .270/.320/.330 and +5ish defense if he’s just learning second. Might not be an upgrade over Counsell against righties.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
I assume this is supposed to be in reply to Escobar switching to second?
Yeah, I don’t think he’d be a significant improvement over the other options, not enough to screw around with him.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
How did this happen?
I feel like a rookie. Yeah, you’re right. I’d play Hall some at second, and I’d pull a 2007 Ryan Braun at third situation with Gamel, pull him after 7 if it’s a tight game, unless of course he is hitting at a MVP- caliber level like Braun was.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Havent seen it suggested
But with early season talks in trading with the Yankees, any chance of robinson cano and some combination of players for Mike Cameron and some combination of players…
Wouldn’t seem like the Brewers would want to trade Cameron as he is playing well, and Cano and Melky I believe are both playing well right now, so may not make sense, but perhaps Melvin will discuss the idea if the right combination of players are thrown together.
Only problem is the Brewers have no outfield depth so would have to get some OFs in return
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
I highly doubt
That the difference in production between Cano and a Counsell/McGehee/Hall/etc. platoon would be nearly enough to offset the difference between Cameron and whomever we’d get to replace him
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
I would trade my SlapChop
for a reasonably good replacement for Weeks.
If a deal were made in the next 20 minutes, I’d throw in the Graty™ for free - but you know I can’t keep doing this all day.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on May 19, 2009 4:41 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Only if a portion of his salary went to fighting Scientology
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Who played second base for Team Korea?
Just sign him.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on May 19, 2009 5:27 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/45437482.html
Some interesting stuff here.
- Melvin did call Durham, but it’ll take him too long to be ready.
- Not interested in Grudz due to back issues
- Not going to trade for anyone because Rickie will be back next year
- The big one: Escobar is going to be playing at second two days for every day he now plays at short. That’s not “some” second base, that’s almost a position change. Have to believe he gets a shot there at some point here soon.
Thanks for the link
Sorry to hear about the infeasibility of Durham/Grudzielanek.
I really hope Escobar gets fast-tracked to the team; he can hit pretty poorly and still be a better option than Coun-barren-hee (yuck…)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Yeah, that sounds like Escobar is going to get called up as soon as he shows he can play second
And, being an excellent defensive shortstop, there’s no reason to think he can’t.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
If only we had managed to sign Jemile Weeks
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 19, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree.
I voted for internal options, but I expected it to be much closer, with external options ahead and me getting the crap beaten out of me in the comments for advocating for internal candidates.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
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