Tom H. and LA Times on possible Peavy deal

by tristarscoop on May 25, 2009 9:46 PM CDT Comment 42 comments

Tom H. had a blog post talking about what things would need to happen for the Brewers to be contenders.

He also mentions that discussions have been had by Brewers personnel already and that Hoffman will have talked to Peavy and that Braun and Peavy email.

The LA Times notes that after we offered $100 million to Sabathia, the $70 million for Peavy is more than doable, especially with attendance up and our new cable deal.

However, their point is less about our appeal and more about how a lot of other teams having fallen out of contention, leaving us as the best of what's left.

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From the LA Times link

We’re told the Brewers are exploring whether to bid for Peavy

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on May 25, 2009 9:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Eeexxcelent.

:) + Suppan = :'(

by NoahJ on May 25, 2009 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Refer to <a href=“Refer to this as to why the Brewers should NOT trade for Jake Peavy (and why nobody should, really) ”http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/?p=4335" target="_blank">http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/?p=4335" target="new">this for my reasoning.

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http://www.balkingtraditionalism.blogspot.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on May 25, 2009 10:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

WHOOPS

This
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/?p=4335

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http://www.balkingtraditionalism.blogspot.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on May 25, 2009 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're missing a couple important points

Sure, J.J. Hardy is better on a dollars/win basis, but we’re not paying his salary. I think all support of this deal comes with the implicit assumption that they wouldn’t do it if Attanasio couldn’t afford to pay Peavy and still allow Melvin to operate appropriately. I think he’s shown he’s willing to splurge a little when it comes to impact talent, adding money to the team budget that wasn’t necessarily there to begin with.

And yes, perhaps Hardy and Peavy are roughly equal value-wise, but the trade isn’t happening in a vacuum. You have to consider all the pieces before and after and weigh them all against each other, which involves evaluating the player Peavy would replace (probably Parra, at least for the time being, and then Looper after this year) and the player that would replace Hardy (Escobar).

That you’ve shown Peavy and Hardy to be roughly equal is a good reason to think twice before jumping at the trade, but I don’t think you’ve come anywhere near making it obvious that the trade shouldn’t happen.

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on May 25, 2009 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe, for this year, Peavy and Hardy are equal.

The point is, however, that we’re not trading Jake Peavy this year for JJ Hardy this year. We’re trading this year and next year of JJ Hardy (roughly free) for four years of a likely declining Jake Peavy who is owed 60 to 78 million dollars.

Peavy just isn’t good enough for the money. He’s not worth his contract, and the Brewers can’t afford to pay a player “fair market value,” which is roughly what Peavy will likely be worth over the duration of his contract.

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http://www.balkingtraditionalism.blogspot.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on May 26, 2009 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How can you be sure what the Brewers can and can't afford to pay Jake Peavy?

Based on the fact that they offered Sabathia $20M/year for five years, I’d have to say that they can afford to pay Peavy $17M/year for three years ($48M in salary from 2010-2012 plus $4M buyout in 2013). It’s not a wins/dollar competition, just a wins competition. As long as the dollars don’t get in the way, who cares?

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on May 26, 2009 1:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Brewers payroll is still limited.

I wouldn’t have been a huge fan of the Sabathia deal either, to be honest. I know it’s not a wins/dollar competition, but when you’re a small market team trying to compete long term as well as short term, it kind of is. With core players contracts escalating quickly, we can’t afford to pay a guy like Peavy that much when we can easily find players to produce at Peavy’s level (which is not the 6 or 7 wins per year of a truly elite SP, but more of the 3-4 of an upper level SP) for much much much less money. It may look good now, but I don’t personally want to make that sacrifice for this year, again, and mortgage the next 5 years. We couldn’t lock up Fielder, Gallardo, Hardy, Gamel, etc. with that kind of contract for that kind of player.

If Peavy was worth 6 wins a year, I’d be easier to convince. I don’t think he can do that any more, and I especially do not want to be paying 50 million dollars or something for a pitcher over 30. It’s just plain bad management.

---
http://www.balkingtraditionalism.blogspot.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on May 26, 2009 2:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Signing guys

“We couldn’t lock up Fielder, Gallardo, Hardy, Gamel, etc. with that kind of contract for that kind of player.”

I don’t think Fielder is staying past 2011, if he’s still on the team by then anyway. If Hardy is the guy traded to San Diego for Peavy, they you don’t have to worry about locking him up – and I wonder how eager Melvin is to lock up even a plus shortstop with chronic back problems. Gamel won’t need to be locked up until after Peavy’s contract. The only guy you mentioned that it might affect is Gallardo, but with the contracts of guys like Hall and Suppan expiring as Gallardo enters arbitration after next year, I think they’ll be able to find a way to pay him.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 26, 2009 5:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Follow-up

If getting Peavy makes it tough to sign anyone, I think it’s guys like Looper and Hoffman who get the ax. They’ll keep Gallardo, Gamel, etc., but they won’t have as much cash for extra pieces to fill out the rotation or bullpen. That’s the main financial concern, not worry about signing core guys long-term.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 26, 2009 5:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that nails it.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2009 7:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or a CF for next year!

Is Duffy going to be the CF next year? Cameron won’t be cheap and Cain wont be ready…. also, giving Rivera/Salome all the starts at C next year.?.. most likely will need some salary flexibility to sign free agents in both positions, plus pitching depth

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on May 26, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gerut is a candidate. If his bat can recover he’d be a decent replacement.

by SgtClueLs on May 26, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

wouldn’t mind seeing him get some time, if he stays healthy during the course of a year could put up Cameron like numbers

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on May 26, 2009 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fielder on a Segway.

I’m tellin’ ya.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2009 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"- and I wonder how eager Melvin is to lock up even a plus shortstop with chronic back problems."

Just a guess, but I don’t think they’re interested in locking him up at all. I’ll be mildly surprised if he’s back in Milwaukee next year.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2009 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

we signed fielder after CC fell through

would we have given fielder a multi-year escalating deal if CC was around? that may be some peavy money

by PagsBrewCrew on May 26, 2009 3:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

roughly free

Hardy is making $4.65 Mil. this year. Next year, it will probably be around $5 Mil. He is not in the first year of arbitration like Fielder was last year.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on May 26, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, there is some truth to the Peavy rumor now

but there was no truth to the Peavy rumor a month ago? I’m thinking that Tom H gots played a month or so back but doesn’t want to mention that his ‘sources’ may have used him. After all, without his vaunted access and ability to tell truth from fiction he might as well be writing in his mom’s basement.

by Getting Yosted on May 25, 2009 11:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't think tom was used

so much as he was willing to disregard any chance things could change. i think most likely the price came down to the brewers and they became more interested, or as previously stated, the crew are the best of whats left.

by goirish2107 on May 26, 2009 12:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

got it

Princey for Peavy and Kouzmanoff
Better yet, Hardy and Jeffress for Peavy and Kouzmanoff

by BrewerBlue87 on May 26, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yah, THAT's a fair trade.

by Mykenk on May 26, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

a flip?

Let’s just send them Gerut back for Peavy? Maybe legally change his name to Ryan Braun first, though.

by joedevivre on May 26, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you mean change his name to King of Swagger?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on May 26, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think there should be a moratorium declared agains the use of the phrase "King Of Swagger" on this site.

And we should refer to the guy who crafted it as the “King of Douchey Nicknames”.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chat douche?

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on May 26, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

That is one wet pussy

by Brew Angel on May 27, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Peavy's splits

His ERA is substantially lower at PETCO: 2.79 vs. 3.82. BABIP is similar at PETCO. His HR rate is almost half as low at PETC0 (1 every 28 ABs vs. 1 every 52 ABs), which is not surprising. What is surprising to me is that his K/BB ratio is so much lower at PETCO, 2.5 vs. 3.7.

Does anyone know if this is a typical effect of a pitcher’s park (pitching more aggressively perhaps)?

by keephopealive on May 26, 2009 2:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, it is

He’s probably a 3.70-ish pitcher this year down to about 4.10-4.20 in the last year of his contract. That has a lot of value, but not much more than his contract, that’s why you have to be careful to not give up too much for him.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on May 26, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was asking if the K/BB difference is typical of pitcher's parks

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on May 26, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Read my subject line :)

So, restated, yes.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on May 26, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow, I was reading 3.70-ish and 4.10-4.20 as ERA for some reason

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on May 26, 2009 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those are ERAs

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on May 26, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This got really confusing.

I was saying:

1. Yes, there is a difference in K:BB ratio in pitchers parks. Peavy’s is a higher than what the usual change is, but there is a difference in park ks and bbs.

2. Rest of the comment was about Peavy in general. I was going to say that generally about Peavy, and then I saw that comment and answered the ratio question.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on May 26, 2009 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, you read my question correctly

If Jordan M says that the K/BB ratio is typical, i’d be interested to hear the explanation.

by keephopealive on May 26, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait, am I reading this right?

Peavy’s K:BB is 3.7 at Petco, 2.5 everywhere else. That’s what I am saying is a typical outcome. I think you have it backwards. The ratio is better because he can be more aggressive and tougher hitting conditions and whatever.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on May 26, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Parking Lot Pimpin'

by CATALYST on May 26, 2009 9:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You have been scarce as of late

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on May 27, 2009 1:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hrmmm....

I know the Padres are looking to drop salary, and I hate to think of gimping the farm, but do you think SD would cover at least some of Peavy’s salary if we sent them a little extra?

by Wayfaerer on May 27, 2009 1:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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