Brewers 15, Reds 3
by Kyle Lobner on May 6, 2009 10:05 PM CDT
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PrintW: Manny Parra (1-4)
L: Bronson Arroyo (4-2)
HR: J.J. Hardy (4), Ryan Braun (5), Prince Fielder (5), Brandon Phillips (5), Jay Bruce (7)
MVP: J.J. Hardy (+.179)
LVP: Craig Counsell (-.035)
Win Expectancy Graph
SB Nation Coverage
This one was over early. J.J. Hardy connected for a three run home run to cap a five run first inning, and Ryan Braun hit the Brewers' first grand slam of the season in the second to give Manny Parra a 9-0 lead.
Parra pitched out of trouble consistently, including bases loaded jams in both the third and fourth innings. All told, he allowed two runs on eight hits and four walks in six innings en route to his first win.
All told, the Brewers managed 20 hits and five walks in the game, including the first major league hit for Carlos Corporan, who singled off of Reds shortstop Paul Janish in the ninth inning, and Fielder's fifth home run, which was also hit off Janish as part of a five run ninth inning. Five Brewers had multiple hits, including Craig Counsell, who went 4-for-6 with two doubles.
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perhaps we can assign the LVP
to FanGraphs
by PagsBrewCrew on May 6, 2009 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the MVP should be Arroyo
+.447 for the Brewers ;)
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
You can't try to use it for something it's not
If Counsell goes 0-6 tonight, the Brewers still win easily. It’s the ultimate context stat. If you want the super-duper awesomeness rating for each game, you have to go elsewhere (a game score for hitters). You can’t change WPA, it is what it is.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
fine...
RWPA (real WPA)
would hit Weeks for the baserunning error, not Counsell who had nothing to do with Week’s getting thrown out.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 6, 2009 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions
that play was a -.119 for him
so + .084
by PagsBrewCrew on May 7, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Just curious...
… but doesn’t that work the other way too? The Brewers still win easily tonight without Braun’s 6 RBI if everyone else (Counsell included) puts up the same numbers. Same goes for Hardy’s HR.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 7, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions
It doesn't work like that
It only works off reality. We have no idea how the game would have played out if the Brewers didn’t score 9 runs in the first inning+.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Ok. I'm not sure that I accept that premise, but ok.
I always thought that statistical analysis and its champions tended to discount the concept of “clutch” plays and players, but maybe it’s really just a distaste for the word instead of the concept itself. I’m certainly not going to argue with the notion that a 2 run homer with a 7 run lead is of less impact and value than an RBI single in a tie game.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 7, 2009 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't know if you'd read a response this far down the page, but
that’s why we have context stats and context-neutral stats. Clutch is good and important, but it’s not really repeatable. We’re trying to find the player with the biggest impact toward the win in this one game and the guy with the least impact toward the win in this one game. I don’t use WPA for total value, really. A homer is always given the same amount of average run value in a stat like wOBA.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
I've already revealed that i'm a moron...
… so, what do you mean “it’s not really repeatable”? Do you mean it’s difficult to quantify?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 8, 2009 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Nice caption
Even better picture
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"
RIP Nick Adenhart: Stop Drunk Driving
The thumbnail I chose for the video on Facebook is Braun with his arm around Parra's back
I thought the exact same thing. “You just go ahead and nibble, Manny. We got you.”
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
They showed Manny on TV after he was pulled
All I could think of was him sitting there thinking “This is great Prince will not beat me up this time”
Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S
better photo...not from today or against the brewers, but still
by PagsBrewCrew on May 6, 2009 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Haha
The bat in the picture makes it all the better
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"
RIP Nick Adenhart: Stop Drunk Driving
as do the piss stains on the insides of his legs
by PagsBrewCrew on May 6, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions
must have been trying to pee on his hands a la Moises Alou
by juggernaut400 on May 7, 2009 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions
"spinning and falling while laying down a sacrifice bunt"
Bunting for the fences?
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Pfft, the MVP was clearly Carlos Corporan
Kid got a lot of firsts tonight, but still hasn’t registered his first tenth of a percent of win probability added.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
Hit, run, putout, assist, blocked pitch in the dirt
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
This deserves posting
Carry on, our wayward sons.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
this looks
like one of my golf drives.
by molitorfan on May 6, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Manny Parra wears high socks and BOOM!
PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.
by Lavender on May 6, 2009 10:11 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Jordan M
You’ve got gmail
I don't hate Kendall like everybody else, I'm a non-conformist like that.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 6, 2009 10:13 PM CDT reply actions
Jeez
Five o’clock shadow much, Braun? Nod much, Braun?
It’s okay. You’re still cute. :)
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"
RIP Nick Adenhart: Stop Drunk Driving
Little league game
All the healthy position players played. Hall and Alex Gonzalez sat it out.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
DL
That’s why Rosales is on their roster.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
First rec league softball game tonight.
We ten-runned ‘em, then I jumped in the car to find out the Brewers had ten-runned ’em, too. Then went out for ice cream for the wife’s birthday. Not a bad evening, all in all.
Where the hell have you been, Mr Hollywood?
I don't hate Kendall like everybody else, I'm a non-conformist like that.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 6, 2009 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions
He didn't say
he was having ice cream with HER. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Is it wrong to want to pretend to be an elementary school parent in order to see the SCORE program and meet the Brewers?
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"
RIP Nick Adenhart: Stop Drunk Driving
why don't you just wear your school girl outfit
and go as a student ;) lol
Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S
Haha
I know two things that might give me away =P
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"
RIP Nick Adenhart: Stop Drunk Driving
your sparkling intellect and keen wit?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 6, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions
no day job for me
it’s against my religion.
but working like crazy anyway.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 6, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Figure of...yeah
Are you planning on doing a baseballanalysts.com type of site, or other profession? I can’t recall…
Still pro-Cameron
no plans for baseball sites like that
College Splits has become a full-time gig at least during college baseball season. And I run a test-prep company. (Which is what I’m doing right now, so intently that I’m posting on BCB at the same time.)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 6, 2009 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions
GMAT - that's right - awesome
Sorry, having a 2 year old and traveling to China can rout your memory a bit…got anything for CISSP? ;)
The GMAT site looks even better.
Great stuff man.
Still pro-Cameron
Thanks.
I had a guy design a new site for me a few months back, and I’m very happy with it.
I hadn’t even heard of the CISSP before just now. I pretty much stick to the grad-school admissions tests. Nothing that requires actual knowledge :).
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 6, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions
The CISSP is an "inside" joke
We talked about it before. No worries.
I may send some genius Chinese kids your way… ;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5wZu9ZJkcQ
Still pro-Cameron
damn
I remember now. I remembered we had emailed, but… man, there are a lot of tests out there with senseless acronyms as names.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on May 6, 2009 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking more like
the “I love you Braun” written on my eyelids, Indiana Jones style
"If lovin’ Braun is wrong, I want to be a repeat offender!"
RIP Nick Adenhart: Stop Drunk Driving
I for one cannot wait to rewatch this game tomorrow on MLB.TV
It is becoming my morning tradition lately I love to watch the other teams feed when the Crew goes off like they did today
Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S
One word for tonight's game: smokin'
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
by battlekow on May 7, 2009 1:04 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
When that happened
BA said, “Before the smoke has cleared from the home run, he lines a single to right”. I thought it was a cliche, but it was actually true.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Outfielder's Card
After Duffy’s spectacular catch last night. I made some grunting/cheering sounds trying not to wake the kids up. The wife looked up from her lap top long enough to get wowed herself. Then asks me why he is checking his cell phone. She asks “Did someone just text telling him that he made a great catch” And starts going off on a rant about why players having cell phones while they are playing the game.
You know those cards that the outfielders carry to tell them where to play…. Yeah – it wasn’t a cell phone and it was one of those cards.
If this were football
And it was T.O., he would have had a cell phone to call someone to tell them he made a great play.
makes you wonder, though not too long
where would T.O. play if he were a baseball player?
obviously Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs or Dodgers
I mean what position? OF I would imagine. or Designated Douche bag
"si si Peeedro"
I'm not sure.
But what I do know is, he’d be the only player ever to be pinch-run for halfway up the first base line.
Catcher
Not only because he can still catch balls from time to time, but it’s also the place of biggest impact if he were to sulkily stop trying.
“Another passed ball on Owens, allowing the 17th Nationals run to score. You’ve really got to wonder what’s going through [reliever]’s head right now.”
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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