It's nice to not fear the bullpen

by tristarscoop on Jun 1, 2009 7:50 PM CDT Comment 25 comments

Sitting at today's game, we noted that at no point were we concerned about the lead that was amassed in the first three innings despite the fact that the Brewers failed to score any runs for the rest of the game, gave up seven hits, recorded three errors, and went to the bullpen in the sixth inning.

Being that sure of the bullpen was the most surprising of the reasons. It feels like it's been forever that there isn't a pitcher that I fear entering the game. There were quite a few guys last season that made us want to turn the game off, hide our eyes or just plain gave us the shivers while we worried how bad the damage would be.

Many would still argue that they fear Jorge Julio entering the game, but his ERA is now a manageable 5.71 - down from 8.40 just four appearances ago - and he's had a few successful outings of late, taking his scare factor way down.

That's a far cry from the bullpen situation at this time last season.

Take a look at the pitching stats from March/April and then May of last season. (from FanGraphs)

May's numbers are a little less scary, but March/April features Eric Gagne's four blown saves and Derrick Turnbow's 15.63 ERA

Compare that to the pitchers' numbers so far this season:

Riske and Swindle's numbers are from minimal appearances and they aren't even on the current roster, so you're talking about a full lineup of pitchers who's ERA's are under 6.00. ~~If you include Swindle and Riske, we have a team ERA of 5.28. Without them, it's down to 3.52.~~

Edit: turns out my stat skills are still far below par

From PagsBrewCrew:

relief ERA: 3.22 (includes one 2 ER in 1 IP appearance by Bush)
starting ERA: 4.41 (obviously does not include the Bush outing above)

Overall: 4.01 (our starters have pitched more than our relievers, so that’s why our ERA is higher than the average of the two above)

One of the biggest changes? Trevor Hoffman. Since he came off the DL on April 27, the bullpen's ERA is just 2.18. He has brought stability to the relievers. Apparently his mere presence in the bullpen is enough to scare Jorge Julio straight!

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Totally agreed

I was talking with a fan in green bay on saturday and we agreed that if the Brewers are to have a shot at going deep it’s going to be because of the bullpen. Stetter’s been good, DiFelice and Coffey have been great, even Villanueva looks really sharp recently. And of course the door has been closing completely after the 8th ;)

captainbok: What do you like the most about milwaukee

Jeff Suppan: Captain Bok, that is a great question. Does "Bok" mean Book of Knowledge? My favorite thing about Milwaukee are the Brewers.

by JAMOOL on Jun 1, 2009 1:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pags' criticism-of-the-day

If you include Swindle and Riske, we have a team ERA of 5.28. Without them, it’s down to 3.52.

Team ERA is not the mean of all relievers equally weighted, which appears to be what you’re doing here. It is really (total runs)*9/(innings pitched).

There’s no way that 3.2IP, even with 6ER really throws our team ERA off by 1.76. At this point in the season (50 games in) a team ERA off by 1.76 would require 81-88 additional earned runs given up.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 1:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I was going to post something simliar

But you did all the grunt work to prove my notion

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jun 1, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

small correction

Team ERA is not the mean of all ~~relievers~~ [pitchers] equally weighted, which appears to be what you’re doing here.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actual difference in team ERA sans Swindle and Riske...

…is 4.01 with them and 3.92 without, if anyone was wondering. I’m surprised it’s that high — like you said, they’ve only given up 6 ER.

by Br@wndo on Jun 1, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

in 9 inning games over 50 games

a dif of .09 ERA is 4.5 runs. So, given some of our losses have been on the road where we only actually pitch 8 innings, but we’ve had a couple of extra innings games too, those numbers make sense. I wouldn’t have been surprised with a .2 difference either.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True ERAs

relief ERA: 3.22 (includes one 2 ER in 1 IP appearance by Bush)
starting ERA: 4.41 (obviously does not include the Bush outing above)

Overall: 4.01 (our starters have pitched more than our relievers, so that’s why our ERA is higher than the average of the two above)

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

note that

our pen is currently the 3rd best in baseball (by ERA)
behind the mets and red sox.

our starting rotation is in 15th place (out of 30), so just-barely-above-average (median). Seeing that we have the 2nd best (tied) record overall, it IS our starting rotation “holding us back”.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still, the way the rotation was talked about before the season...

who could possibly be disappointed to have them be middle of the pack?

Anyway, right now I’m feeling pretty good to have been among the few who predicted less than 20 pitchers for the season in our over/under contest. Knock on wood that they’ll all manage to stay healthy, but at least on performance grounds there really haven’t been any major disappointments so far (not even Suppan since the dreadful first couple of games).

by Zeyes on Jun 1, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

but that doesn’t mean that starting pitching isn’t still our #1 liability, and isn’t the first gap-of-suck we should address come trade time.

I could see defense or obp becoming a liability down the road, but right now starting pitching is the only one. Second base could be a hole of suck, but not as much a hole-of-suck as Suppan and Parra have been this season.

Then again, even if we AVERAGED what our second-best pitcher does now (Bush) we’d only move up a few positions to 11th best. So, basically if we added a #1 or #2 starter and dropped Parra to AAA we can only marginally improve our position. And it’s not like Doug Melvin will be able to simultaneously get Grienke, Cain and Peavy, so we’re stuck with only dropping one pitcher (Parra) from the rotation. Bah humbug.

Maybe have Parra and DiFelice go halvsies on Parra’s next two outings and then flip their roles, or send down Parra for Dillard straight-up to get marginal improvement without a trade.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

still walking blindly through this stat business, but I’m trying!

by tristarscoop on Jun 1, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You'll get the hang of it

You can always put letters together and act like it’s a newfangled stat, like WILS.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jun 1, 2009 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Russian Roulette

Certainly the bullpen has been great, but….

Bringing in a reliever (for everyone, not just the Brewers) is like playing Russian Roulette; you keep pulling the trigger, and sooner or later, the gun goes off. It’s part of the game.

by robertearle on Jun 1, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yep

this is why I’ve often been against using a designated 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy and closer (and a different 6th inning guy if the starter only makes it through 5).

More pitchers used in a game = a greater chance that one is going to have an off-day and blow up.

I understand that pitching the 9th is psychologically a higher-pressure situation than the 7th or 8th, so maybe you only want to have one or two guys finishing off the game, but if someone is pitching well in the 7th, they should be used in the 8th as well (provided that a) they’re showing no signs of wear and b) their slot doesn’t come up in the batting order in the bottom of 7/top of 8).

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 1, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Staying the Course

By and large this season that seems to be the way Macha is handling the pitching. He lets pitchers get out of jams, but more often then not (as record reflects) has been switching out at fairly good times. Yes, mistakes made, or pinch hitters in the Pitchers spot not producing, but overall I know that personally I haven’t had many heart attack or heart breaking moments this season so far, offensive slumps aside

by pharom on Jun 1, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Idiosyncracies aside

The title is spot on, bullpen has not been feared this year, and the last few years, it seemed any pitcher coming in had the potential to blow up… it would surprise me now if anyone other than Julio did right now.

I think it is a matter of time before Coffey returns to his Cincinatti Red self and Hoffman’s ERA will certainly be above 0.0 at the end of the season, but you have to be pleased the first 50 games… .

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jun 1, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

I think that as time goes on, Hoffman is going to pitch so awesomely they’ll take runs off the board. I’m predicting a Cy Young-winning ERA of -1.47. Write it down.

http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com

by No Huddle Offense on Jun 1, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think people need to consider the rotation in the playoffs

Without two really good pitchers you won’t go far look at the two World Series teams last year. Each had a stopper and a good number two with both of their ERAs under 4.

2008 Phillies – Cole Hamels 3.09, Jamie Moyer 3.71
2008 Rays – James Shields 3.56, Matt Garza 3.70, Scott Kazmir 3.49
-
2007 Red Soxs – Josh Beckett 3.27, Curt Shilling 3.87
2007 Rockies – only team to dispel theory and they were really hot
-
Do we have a solid regular season rotation? definitely, generally they all go out their and more often than not give the quality start and give us a position to start. Once the Post Season starts though that 5 man rotation becomes a rotation of 3 or maybe 4. Right now are we ok going into the playoffs possibly sending Suppan, Looper, or Parra on the mound to be destroyed by superior hitting?

If we were to trade for a Peavy, Penny (I know not a good person), or Cain the move immediately makes us a contender not in the regular season but the playoffs; a rotation of Gallardo, (Peavy/Cain/Penny), and Bush is one that can win in the playoffs. A rotation that throws Suppan, Looper, or Parra? They may be place holders but are we ok will possibly getting a bad outing from them and throwing another year to the wind? I for the right price am not

Ring Out Ahoya!

by bleedbluegold03 on Jun 1, 2009 5:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well you were right, most of us do fear Julio. Unfortunately Macha didn’t last night. Coffey limited the damage, but the game was doomed by that time.

by biedergb on Jun 2, 2009 7:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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