BCB Interview: 26th-round LHP Lex Rutledge
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 1:00 PM CDT
in Interviews
37 comments
The Brewers are now a team of Princes, but Mississippi southpaw Lex Rutledge is from the home of The King. You never know--maybe someday Tupelo will proudly bill itself as "the home of Lex Rutledge, 26th-round pick made good". At the very least, he'll have some great entrance music.
BCB: How’s it going?
LR: I'm doing good, how about yourself?
BCB: Not bad. So you prefer Lex to Felix?
LR: Yeah, I go by Lex.
BCB: Good deal. Can you describe what you throw?
LR: Well, lately my fastball has been 92 to 94. I throw a changeup around 78 to 80 and a curveball around 74 to 76.
BCB: In your draft video, it looked like you were throwing about 87 or 88. Did you gain velocity as the year went on?
LR: Yeah, that was about mid-season. It was also about the fourth inning. This past Saturday the Brewers area scout told me I was 92 to 94.
BCB: What kind of movement do you get on your curve?
LR: It's a 1-to-7.
BCB: Does it sound like they like your curve, or are they going to want you to go to a harder breaking ball?
LR: Well, it has its ups and downs at times. When I throw it right it has a hard break and usually get guys swinging at it down in the zone.
BCB: "Ups and downs." [laughs]
LR: [laughs] No pun intended.
BCB: The Brewers probably liked that you already threw a changeup.
LR: Yeah, I got that before my curveball.
BCB: Oh, really? That's pretty unusual. Do you have a good feel for it?
LR: I like throwing my changeup. I can usually throw it on 3-2. I didn’t start pitching really until this year, for school anyway, but that’s a story in itself.
BCB: Oh yeah?
LR: Well, just about our coach’s tactics.
BCB: So you were a hitter before?
LR: Yeah, I would like to hit if I could. [laughs]. But pitching I think is how I'll make it.
BCB: So what gave your coach the idea that you'd be a good pitcher?
LR: No one gave him the idea. He never pitched me, and all I wanted to do was pitch. I only threw 19 innings last year. But my high school team was number one in the nation last year by Baseball America. The guys in front of me were seniors, and he likes to give them a chance to play.
BCB: So you felt a little underexposed?
LR: Yeah, or I would have been about to go to the SEC, but no one was able to see me play.
BCB: That must have been really frustrating for you.
LR: Yeah. He didn't play any juniors last year but Chris Stratton. [Stratton] signed with Mississippi State.
BCB: And you feel like if you had played more, you might have gotten an SEC scholarship too?
LR: Yeah, I think that. SEC schools wanted to see me pitch this year, but I went ahead and signed. If I had played last year they would have seen me already. Some SEC schools offered me a walk-on spot because of my arm strength and being left-handed, but I wanted a scholarship and didn’t want to wait.
BCB: Went ahead and signed? With Samford?
LR: Yeah, Samford. I love Samford, though, and I wouldn't want to go anywhere else now.
BCB: Are you planning on going to Samford still, or would you like to sign with the Brewers?
LR: I’m not sure. I think the money just needs to be life-changing to not go to school right now.
BCB: Yeah, that makes sense.
LR: I think right now I would probably get fourth-round money, and I would like more, so they drafted me later for a summer-follow kind of thing and to see if I’m worth more. The Cardinals and Brewers both asked if I would go in the fourth and I said no.
BCB: Go in the fourth for slot money, you mean?
LR: Correct. What’s crazy weird is that Manny Parra was taken in the 26th round.
BCB: Yeah, but they had a longer follow period then. They could follow him all year. They'll only get to follow you for the summer. The Brewers really used the year-long draft-and-follow well. It's too bad they moved the signing deadline up.
LR: Yeah, it really is. But I'll just see what happens with it. I think I would like to go for the right money.
BCB: So really, it's up to the Brewers to decide if they think you're worth the money--you'll sign if they pony up the cash?
LR: Yeah, probably so. If I just put up numbers and show my fastball velocity consistently and throw strikes consistently I think they will.
BCB: Where will you be pitching this summer?
LR: For a local legion team, coached by Kirk Presley, if you know of him.
BCB: I don't; is he related to Elvis? Elvis is from your town, right?
LR: [laughs] Yeah, he’s his third cousin, but Kirk was picked 8th overall in ’93, with A-Rod’s draft class.
BCB: Ah, I see. Let me look him up.
LR: Okay. Wiki has a lot on him.
BCB: He never got out of A-ball; did he get injured?
LR: Yeah, they changed his arm slot up a bit and hurt his shoulder. He had two shoulder surgeries but never got it back.
BCB: That’s a bitch.
LR: Yeah, it was. He would have made it, I think.
BCB: So will the Brewers be following you constantly with your legion team?
LR: Um, I think they will, most of the time I pitch. There’s been talk of me maybe coming up there and pitching and all of them getting a look at me.
BCB: Do you think that's going to happen?
LR: I’m not really sure, but I would like to do that. The scout is going to get back to me.
BCB: Did you know the Brewers were interested in you before the draft?
LR: I did, but I honestly thought I would go in the third round, I was told, and when they asked if I would go in the fourth, I said no. I really thought the Cardinals were going to get me instead of the Brewers, but [there was] signability, and they don’t take much risk on high school pitchers.
BCB: So you were expecting the Brewers specifically to take you in the third round?
LR: Yeah, and I told them I didn't want to go past the third round. I probably should have said yes and made it negotiable. [laughs]
BCB: [laughs] Did you give them a specific dollar value?
LR: No, I never gave them a dollar amount, just round-slot money, I guess.
BCB: What is third-round slot value?
LR: I think around four to six [hundred thousand].
BCB: So if they offered you 400k, would you take it?
LR: I don’t think so. I’d like more, because after taxes that is around 325-ish. Actually more like 305.
BCB: So what dollar amount do you have in your head?
LR: I guess half [a million] or more. More of my parents’ number for me to skip college. [laughs] I just want to play ball.
BCB: If they don't give it to you, you should threaten to go play quarterback for the Vikings.
LR: [laughs] Yeah right--you wouldn't want me to throw a football, it looks like a dead duck.
BCB: Coming from Mississippi, are you Brett Favre fan?
LR: Yeah, my uncle is really good friends with him and has played golf with him. But I’m not a Southern Miss fan.
BCB: My relatives all live in Jackson, and there's a huge Favre cult down there. It's funny, he made lots of Mississippians Packers fans, but now Packers fans hate him.
LR: [laughs] Yeah, that's pretty wild, but I understand why. He should have retired when he needed to.
BCB: Indeed. So, speaking of football and late-round baseball picks, did you hear about this Florida State defensive tackle recruit the Brewers drafted? Jacobbi McDaniel. He's a 285-pound third baseman.
LR: [laughs] No, I didn’t. Dang. Does he even play baseball anymore?
BCB: He said he wants 1.5 million to sign, and now the Noles fans are freaking out because there's a report the Brewers offered him 800k.
LR: Wow. I wish they would offer me that. He must can hit.
BCB: Yeah, no kidding. Gain some weight and become a five-star DT recruit and you can make the big bucks.
LR: [laughs] I just don’t see that happening. Oh well, maybe I can throw 103 and get the big bucks like Strasburg.
BCB: Seriously. So did you grow up a Braves fan down there?
LR: No, actually a Cards fan. My whole family is.
BCB: Oh, really? You must have been disappointed they didn't take you.
LR: I was a little bit, but if I wanted to get what I wanted then the Cards taking me wouldn’t be the right thing for me. They were actually going to take me but just later, until the Brewers got me.
BCB: So as a Cardinals fan, you must hate the Cubs.
LR: [laughs] Already do.
BCB: Excellent, you'll fit right in. Well, thanks for being so candid, I really appreciate it. It's cool to get some insight into how the draft really works.
LR: You're welcome, and yeah, I’m still trying to figure it out how it works.
BCB: And pitch really well so they have no choice but to sign you.
LR: [laughs] I’ll try my best.
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So he's a 4th round talent, but we took him in the 26th round because he wants too much money?
The baseball draft is so screwed up.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jun 12, 2009 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No one's come up with a better system though
Baseball operates completely differently than the other sports it’s not like you could put in a mandatory salary for each spot in the draft. There could be teams that would just not draft a player at all in a given round and that wouldn’t be a very logical system either.
by ecocd on Jun 12, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should have said unique, rather than screwed up
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jun 12, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Double modals -- nice link
I used to dislike the Cubs when the Brewers were in the American league, now I ought must hate them.
by cmow on Jun 12, 2009 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
92 mph fastball
78 mph change
Could you imagine if he had the chance to work with Trevor Hoffman on that changeup?
I understand the value of a college education. However, if you’re planning on playing baseball, anyway after college, why postpone it? I’m assuming (I probably shouldn’t assume anything) his parents are telling him that his diploma will be a fall back plan in case baseball doesn’t work out. But if he signs for 800k, he’ll be making WAY more than enough money to pay for a college education in case he gets injured.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jun 12, 2009 1:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Usually, the calculation is based on expectations of being drafted again later
Certainly there’s always an injury risk, but if people thought he was a ~4th rounder on talent out of high school, esp. with so little experience, who knows how high he could go in three years? In that time, he will have gotten a free education at the same time as his friends (rather than going back at age 23), and has a decent shot at getting more money later, especially if the Brewers are sticking with a number like 400k.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess half [a million] or more. More of my parents’ number for me to skip college. [laughs] I just want to play ball.
I think I was probably reading too much into the parents thing.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jun 12, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of draft weirdness, I had a flash of insight recently
Ok. I don’t know if anybody has noticed this, but virtually everyone BK has interviewed has said “The scout told me I’d probably go in the X round, but…” and the guy goes in the Y round, which is at least a bit lower. Never the other way around.
Here’s my theory. Every team has a draft ranking, not unlike a basic fantasy ranking. I don’t know how deep it goes, but let’s say the Brewers have the first 500 players ranked, in order. The 100th pick is in the middle of the 3rd round, so if a scout thinks so-and-so is #100 on the Brewers draft board, he’ll tell the kid he’s likely to go in the third round.
But…unless every team’s draft board is identical, the Brewers #100 player isn’t going to go at #100. Some other teams are going to take players the Brewers aren’t interested in, or have ranked much lower. So when the draft gets to #100, the Brewers have only crossed out their first, I don’t know, 70 top players. (For example, the A’s twitter feed said something about Grant Green being way higher than #13, where they took him.)
So…a guy like Arnett gets excited because the Indians might take him at #15, perhaps told so because his area scout figures he’ll be #15 or higher on the board. But then the Indians can take their #12 at #15, so Arnett falls.
A guy like Rutledge gets told different things by different scouts, but the best news is hearing he could be 4th round … the scouts think he’ll be #120 on their board. But, again, when those teams’ picks around #120 come up, they can take guys up around #90 or #100. For some guys, that just means they fall one round, but for Rutledge, the teams know he’s a signability issue past the third or fourth round, so when it gets to be the fifth or sixth round and he’s the top guy left on the board, they decide to move on to somebody signable.
Anyway, that’s my theory.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 1:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right, that makes sense
What’s interesting to me is the specific timing of when they decide to pull the trigger on guys like Rutledge, or do something crazy like draft a FSU DT recruit that wants $1.5M to sign. They wanted Rutledge in the 4th round, but apparently it took 22 more rounds for his ability * the chance of him signing to outweigh the more certain-to-sign talents on the board. I wonder exactly how they calculate that type of thing on the fly.
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two nights ago, Moustache was in the booth
He mentioned something about how they talked more about signability than ability in their draft prep sessions. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had two boards set-up before the draft even began. One for talent and another for signability. They might have already had Rutledge slotted in for “25th round or later” from the word “go.”
by ecocd on Jun 12, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
there’s probably some sort of conventional wisdom on when you start using picks on flyers — either guys you don’t think will sign or guys you don’t think will amount to much. Seems like it’s 4th/5th round for really big talents (Melville, Wil Myers), then mid-20s for secondary talents.
What’s interesting to me is the unanimity of opinion even past the first several rounds. There was one guy taken in the 12th or 13th round last year who I was interested in, and I mentioned him to a couple of other guys who were making draft decisions. All three of those teams had this guy figured for 12th-14th round.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, MLB only recommends slot bonus through the first five rounds
So for slot-conscious teams like the Brewers, they have to wait until the sixth round at least to take players that are going to require big bonuses.
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They clearly didn't have Rutledge slotted in for "25th round or later"
They called him and asked him if he would sign for fourth-round slot money. If he had agreed, he would have gone in the fourth round.
I don’t think there are two lists; I think teams make their draft board with signability built into the rankings. When the Orioles tell you Matt Hobgood was on the top of their board, they’re not lying. They’re just eliding the fact that they took his lack of a huge price tag into account when they ranked him there.
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a related question...
I wonder how many “relevant” players each team needs to have on their board…by that I mean, how many players do you need in order to still have somebody left for your 50th round pick after accounting for all the guys picked by other team. Or looked at from the opposite angle – how many other teams even planned to draft, say, the Brewers 35th-rounder? Is there really a lot of overlap between the draft boards in the later rounds, or are the reasons that teams choose certain players so diverse that a team could pre-plan, say, 50 candidates for the last 20 rounds and be reasonably sure that 20 will in fact be available to them?
by Zeyes on Jun 12, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...looks like Jeff sort of answered that right as I was typing.
Somehow I find it hard to believe that there’s so much unanimity in general…perhaps a mild case of selection bias in that players who are interesting even to non-draft insiders tend to have a more defined/more stable ranking across different organizations, but I’m really just guessing here (and probably falling prey to my own biases).
by Zeyes on Jun 12, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it was selection bias in that case
I stumbled on this particular guy because I happened to find a stat of his three days before the draft that nobody else probably even had. And he was about as obscure a college player as you could ask for.
I would guess that you need way more than 50 players for the last 20 rounds. I seem to recall that in most of the past interviews, BK’s standard question of “who else was interested in you?” netted at least two or three other teams, and sometimes the player didn’t think the Brewers were all that interested, suggesting that other teams the player didn’t mention were also interested and could’ve taken him.
There are several factors in the overall unanimity (of interest, if not exact levels of interest):
- scouts know each and talk to each other
- everybody reads the same sources: BA, PG Crosschecker, etc.
- at the high school level, most of the top players play in showcases that lots of scouts attend
- at the college level, most of the top players play in summer leagues that are infested with scouts, and even those are treated by BA and PG Crosschecker
I generally don’t try to ask “fan” questions of my professional contacts, but I might, in this case.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the unanimity of the opinions is directly correlated with the player's exposure
People may think Matt Hobgood was a bit of an overdraft at #5 overall, but nobody disagrees that he was a first-round talent. Even with most divergent opinions, I suspect the price tag has a lot to do with it. To be more than a few rounds apart on when you’d take a guy based on talent alone would speak to a massive difference in evaluation styles that I’m not sure exists. After all, a few rounds is a lot of picks. Having several teams tell you “12-14th round” for a guy sounds precise, but that’s 90 picks.
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
I’m taking it for granted that “unanimity” means different things at different points in the draft. Everybody had Strasburg at #1, most had Ackley at #2, and most teams probably had most first rounders in the top 40 or 50. But there’s a lot more factors (many of which don’t have anything to do with the player in particular) that go into the rankings at #400. You can have two scouts filing an identical report, and something as simple as a crosschecker’s generalization that one region is stronger than another can mean that guys falls at #350 on one board and #400 on another.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And on third thought...
if the draft boards really look a lot alike, we shouldn’t really be seeing the aforementioned speculated effect, no? A team might be able to get their board #100 with pick #120, but that should just mean that lots of other teams will have that team’s board #120 coming up soon, too, and that doesn’t always seem to be the case.
by Zeyes on Jun 12, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the boards contain a large percentage of similar names
…but in wildly varying order.
Take the Pirates selecting Tony Sanchez, though really any overdraft would do. Someone of that caliber is going to be on just about every team’s draft board. I’m guessing other teams had him anywhere from #10 to #100. The range probably isn’t that great for very many guys in the top 100, but between different preferences (hs vs. college, stats vs. scouts, talent vs. polish) and signability issues, I’ll bet every player on a majority of boards has a pretty wide spread in rankings.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one more bit of evidence of unanimity
One of the services I provide to some teams is: They send me a list of 200 players, I give them weekly updates on those players. Point being: I have lists of 200 top college follows from several teams. (I think four teams did that this year.) I haven’t done any analysis on the lists this year, but last year, IIRC, 100+ of the names were the same on all four lists. There were very, very few on only one list, and even those guys, presumably, were in the 150-200 range on one list, and would’ve been in the 200-250 range on others, had the lists been extended that far.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's easy to forget
Someone actually has to compile the data these teams use. Go figure.
by ecocd on Jun 12, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for all the responses...
I’ve cancelled about three four further reply attempts of mine in the last 30 minutes because I’m trying to model the whole thing in my head and keep running into issues. :) Maybe my mistake lies in thinking that the “distance” between board # and actual pick # gets larger…I suppose it’s possible that with pick #120 you can take your board #100 and with pick #820 you get to take your board #800 or maybe #750 (rather than something like #400 or #500 as I originally presumed). Basically, the ranking spreads between different draft boards would just allow to surf a little ahead of the draft wave formed by all the clubs’ opinions.
Anyway, enough blather from me. But yeah, if that’s a question your contacts would be willing to resolve, I’d definitely be curious where on the board a team’s last few draft selections generally slotted in. I really don’t have a feel for how close to 1521 (this year’s last selection) you need to get.
BTW, interesting that no team stopped picking before round 50 this year.
by Zeyes on Jun 12, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I’m running into the same issues here:
Maybe my mistake lies in thinking that the "distance" between board # and actual pick # gets larger…I suppose it’s possible that with pick #120 you can take your board #100 and with pick #820 you get to take your board #800 or maybe #750 (rather than something like #400 or #500 as I originally presumed).
Yeah, if you’re picking your own #100 at #120, the spread could increase, but it could also stay exactly the same. If you pick your #100 at #120 and the next 29 picks are your #101 through #129, you’re in the same position (20 picks ahead) the next time you pick.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or it could even get smaller...
Some of your #101-129 were probably picked even earlier, providing that 20-pick spread in the first place.
by Zeyes on Jun 12, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
I knew there was a way for that to happen, and I blanked when I was writing the response.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least we're agreed that it's quite the brain teaser!
And just so I’m on-topic in at least one post: Here’s hoping Lex Rutledge gets to show what he’s capable of this summer and convinces the Brewers to bring him into the fold. Having more prospects is always good. :)
by Zeyes on Jun 12, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because Legion is an established proving ground?
Seems like they couldn’t see anything they’d find useful.
by ecocd on Jun 12, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
obviously the competition is very weak, but...
for the most part they probably want to see him pitch more, see what kind of velocity he gets for the duration of the summer, see how he looks against better competition (relatively speaking). He might also get another tryout.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 12, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many players are surprised?
Are there some players that are completely surprised they’ve been drafted? Do guys that go in the 48th round sometimes go, “Geez, I thought that scout was only there for Joe?”
by ecocd on Jun 12, 2009 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I read that a lot when scrounging post-draft links
McDaniel didn’t even realize he’d been drafted until a reporter called him to ask him about it. He said “I was?”
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice interview
Thanks for the interesting chat. Just to let you know, all Packer fans don’t hate Brett Favre. I still like him and always will. If he wants to keep playing, he should.
by tannerboyle on Jun 12, 2009 4:17 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Now Damn It I will have to hate him twice as much to make up for your lack of effort :)
Let me spell it for you Cub fans O N E H U N D R E D A N D O N E Y E A R S
by WSB Chris on Jun 12, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if only there was a chance in heck of signing him
He’s, um, very blunt, isn’t he? Sort of refreshing, although that may decrease his chances of getting drafted out of college.
by morineko on Jun 12, 2009 5:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You might want to refresh the page...
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jun 12, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I know what the Brewers are trying to do...
In the early rounds they picked players who according to their board deserve to be picked there based on talent & also signabilty. In the later rounds they picked players whose value could be that of the earlier round if they were signable. For instance with Lex, it seems the Brewers think he has 4th round value but he obviously has signability issues. Thus it wouldn’t make sense to waste 4th round pick when there is a chance he won’t sign. Here’s the sneaky thing the Brewers seem to be doing (and I love it), pick him in the 26th round and offer him money comparable to where he would have been drafted if he was signable. Same thing with Jacobbi McDaniel supposedly getting offered $800k as a 33rd round pick. Its somewhat high risk, but very high reward of a young stacked minor league system.
"My plan is my plan," Yost said.
by TAPmoney on Jun 12, 2009 9:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.10.2010 at 4:46 AM CST)
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