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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Hoffman as good as ever, but is he a Hall-of-Famer?

Trevor Hoffman has been nearly perfect for the Brewers this season, not giving up a run until Sunday's loss. He's 15-for-15 on save opportunities and now has 569 in his career. He's often referred to a "future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman," and he's got a resume very worthy of consideration. But is he a Hall-of-Famer? First ballot?

Arguments for: Holds major league record for saves; consistently one of the top relievers in the game over a long period of time.

Arguments against: Barely over 1,000 major league innings; has never thrown more than 90 innings in a season, and only more than 80 three times; never won a major award (second twice in Cy Young); has only led his league in saves twice; short postseason resume.

The case really boils down to longevity and that career saves record. We've got a deeper look at this on Hardball Cooperative today. Read it and share your thoughts here or there.

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They should force him to enter as a Brewer.

by cwolf20 on Jun 16, 2009 11:19 AM CDT reply actions  

The way the HOF voters treat closers...

I doubt it. Plus let’s not forget he’s part of the Steroid era, where everyone is suspect, fair or unfair as that is. Let’s not forget you had that octogenarian who didn’t vote for Rickey Henderson because “He’s not a Rickey guy.” Thats the type of crap you get with HOF voters. I bet Hunt even has a vote.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Jun 16, 2009 11:49 AM CDT reply actions  

Member of steroid era

Since he has not been linked to steroids, being a member of the steroid era will probably help his cause, as other players will not get votes.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jun 16, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Plus

He’d be pitching to more Steroidonians, which would be harder than pitching to non-Steroidonians.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 16, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes

It’s a yes/no question, right?

Longevity is the key to a lot of the “HoF stats” that the BBWA likes. 3000 hits? 500 HR? 300 Wins? You’re not going to get to those numbers without some serious longevity.

And hey, I realize you’re shilling for your website, but if you’re going to post this on a Tuesday morning, you should take into account last night’s game and note that he has 570 saves and is 16-16 this season.

by Brew Angel on Jun 16, 2009 11:49 AM CDT reply actions  

16 saves

Sorry to have shorted him one. He’s even closer to 600 now.

by HardballCooperative on Jun 16, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

And considering that/s 60% of your arguments against…

Since post-season is also a “team” thing, that’s 80% of your arguments against…

so, you’ve got “No major awards,” left.

How many closers have won the Cy Young in the NL, 4??

I don’t think you have much “against” data…

by Mykenk on Jun 16, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Plus, he won the rolaids relief award twice, that’s a major award for closers, no?

by Mykenk on Jun 16, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm going to agree with this and disagree with the other points

Hoffman is going to have the same problem with the HoF that Bert Blyleven has and that people are anticipating Curt Schilling to have—very long although very good performances with some horrible ballclubs. Hoffman played in San Diego for 15 years and the Padres only finished over .500 6 times. He’s the all-time leader in saves despite that, not because of that.

by morineko on Jun 16, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Let me try to rephrase this…your arguments are right, the against data doesn’t hold up, but these are the same HoF voters who won’t let Blyleven into the HoF presumably because he didn’t get enough wins (and you don’t get wins playing for the crappy teams Blyleven played for.)

by morineko on Jun 16, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do bad teams play fewer close games?

Honest question; I don’t know the answer.

It was a great selection of awesome.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

You'd think that they'd be less likely to be AHEAD in a close game

thus limiting the number of save opportunities.

K-Rod’s 62 saves last year was in large part due to the Angels’ ability to get a small lead and then sit on it with Arredondo/Shields/Frankie. If you look at FUentes this year, he hasn’t had nearly the same number of opportunities because the Halos’ bullpen has been godawful, and thus is having trouble keeping a lead into the ninth inning. Though he benefitted last night when Kevin Jepsen gave up 3 runs in the ninth, creating a save opportunity out of a comfortable lead.

by Brew Angel on Jun 16, 2009 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Anecdotally, okay

But the whole idea behind one-run games is that most teams tend to play around .500 in them over a long run, with the most prominent factor allowing a team to significantly exceed that percentage is a strong bullpen, to which a closer like Hoffman certainly contributes. As such, it seems like we’re arguing this particular point a bit backwards.

It was a great selection of awesome.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Top 10 single seasons

1. Francisco Rodriguez, 62 (‘08 Angels, 100-62)
2. Bobby Thigpen, 57 (’90 White Sox, 94-68)
3. Eric Gagne, 55 (‘03 Dodgers, 85-77)
3. John Smoltz, 55 (’02 Braves, 101-59)
5. Trevor Hoffman, 53 (‘98 Padres, 98-64)
5. Randy Myers, 53 (’93 Cubs, 84-78)
5. Mariano Rivera, 53 (‘04 Yankees, 101-61)
8. Eric Gagne, 52 (’02 Dodgers, 92-70)
9. Rod Beck, 51 (‘98 Cubs, 90-73)
9. Dennis Eckersley, 51 (’92 A’s, 96-66)

The worst record was 84-78 of anyone in the top 10 single-season saves list, so there is definitely a correlation between winning teams and closers with a lot of saves. It works both ways. A winning team will provide more save opportunities, while a good closer will help the team win more games.

by HardballCooperative on Jun 16, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Except...

that that completely disregards the possibility of the collected saves being split between multiple pitchers, which of course occurs much more often with bad teams because they’re less likely to have a lights-out or at least established (e.g. a Todd Jones type) closer.

by Zeyes on Jun 16, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

And also...

A list of the single-season save leaders isn’t particularly useful in establishing that good teams really “provide more save opportunities” in the first place – for one thing, those closers’ number of saves is so high as to make the list in large part because they had very few blown saves that season while teams with worse closers will fail to convert plenty of opportunities, but they’re opportunities all the same, the amount of which just looking at saves won’t disclose.

And for another thing, since the “a good closer will help the team win more games” part is obviously not in doubt, you really need to separate that effect out before concluding that that there’s an additional effect based on team strength. To simply look at already-biased data and conclude that “it works both ways” is not very convincing.

by Zeyes on Jun 16, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Take a look at the Angels' pythag for the last several seasons

When they had Frankie as their closer, they didn’t play .500 in close games. They were consistently better. It was something of a running joke on HH just how “lucky” the Angels were to keep winning close games. They went for a ridiculous stretch from early 2007 to mid-2008 without EVER losing a game that they led after 8 innings.

I agree that, in general, teams should be around .500 in close games. But I think a team can be constructed so as to outperform in close games. Again, anecdotally from my experience watching the Angels the last several years, a solid rotation (#4/#5 starters named Jered Weaver/Jon Garland/Joe Saunders) and good bullpen seemed to do that. That kind of team construction didn’t help so much in the playoffs, but it worked well over a 162-game schedule.

by Brew Angel on Jun 16, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

HOF, but probably not first ballot

The arguments listed against were more of a devil’s advocate type point of view than me trying to argue he’s not HOF material. I suspect there are enough arguments there for enough voters to latch onto that Hoffman won’t get in on the first ballot, but I do think he’ll eventually make it.

The innings are relevant, as he would have the lowest innings total of any pitcher elected, and you have to believe there are some voters out there who will have a tough time with that.

I think the steroids argument works in his favor, as he’s never come under suspicion to my knowledge.

The Rolaids relief award doesn’t seem to do much for anyone, so I think that’s a tough sell as a “major” award.

by HardballCooperative on Jun 16, 2009 12:40 PM CDT reply actions  

If you're going to argue something, might as well totally overdo it, I guess...

    * 6-time All-Star (1998-2000, 2002, 2006–2007)
    * 2-time winner of Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award (1998, 2006)
    * Hutch Award for service to the community (2004)
    * Lou Gehrig Memorial Award (2006)
    * 3-time winner of TSN Reliever of the Year Award (1996, 1998, 2006)
    * 2-time National League saves leader (1998, 2006)
    * 2-time NL Pitcher of the month (May, 2005; May, 2009)
    * Holds MLB record for most Pitching Appearances with one team (803)
    * 774 Games finished, most among any active pitcher (tie 2nd All-Time)
    * Holds MLB record with 8 consecutive seasons with 30 or more saves (1995-2002)
    * Holds MLB record with 14 20-Save seasons (1994-2002, 2004-2008)
    * Holds MLB record with 13 30-Save seasons (1995-2002, 2004-2008)
    * Holds MLB record with 9 40-Save seasons (1996, 1998-2001, 2004-2007)
    * Holds MLB record as the only pitcher with 500 MLB career saves (June 6, 2007)
    * 89.53% career save percentage (522 saves in 583 opportunities) is best in MLB History (minimum 190 opportunities) (as of Sept. 20, 2007)
    * 4-time winner of the "DHL Presents the Major League Baseball Delivery Man of the Month Award" (May, 2005; September, 2006; May, 2007; May, 2009)
    * In the January 2008 issue of San Diego Magazine Trevor Hoffman was chosen as one of the “50 People to Watch in 2008”

by Mykenk on Jun 16, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm pretty sure that DHL award would have more prestige if DHL existed anymore

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Jun 16, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

DHL still exists

They only do international shipping here, though.

Trying my damndest to unbunch peoples' undies.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jun 16, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

If he isn't...

than neither is Mariano Rivera… and there is no way that ESPiN will allow MR to not be a 1st ballot HOF

by Saberilliterate on Jun 16, 2009 2:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Absolutely!

The fact that he has never led the league in saves but is still the all-time saves leader is exactly why he should be in the Hall of Fame. His longevity is why he should be voted in and Eric Gagne should not (even though the latter had a better stretch than basically any other reliever ever). Similarly, I think Hank Aaron only led the major leagues in HR once, but clearly nobody disputes his skill as a HR hitter.

Granted, Saves are kind of a dumb statistic, but the Hall of Fame voters aren’t going to start analyzing advanced sabermetrics to evaluate players, and without Saves as a metric they would never vote in a reliever ever. And plus, Saves are dumb but they still are a pretty good indication of success at a closer, and Hoffman has clearly had a more successful career as a closer than any other player ever.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jun 16, 2009 2:39 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm a little confused

This is a serious debate? As was mentioned above, you have virtually no serious “no” arguments, unless you can show that other top relievers were also shut out of the HOF for not throwing 90 IP regularly.

This whole post reads to me like little more than an ad for your blog.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 16, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions  

I would say that its not debatable, but apparently it is.

100% first ballot lock.

Its true that closers are viewed with suspicion by HOF writers, but there are two (Hoffman and Rivera) that are guaranteed.

by grant76 on Jun 16, 2009 3:50 PM CDT reply actions  

HOF voters are unpredictable

There’s really a couple of levels to the question any time a player is eligible for induction. Should he get in, and will he get in? (You can add “on the first ballot” to that as well.) Given that you have never had a unanimous selection and there are voters out there that couldn’t find it in their hearts/minds to vote for Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Cal Ripken, etc., it’s hard to say that Hoffman is a 100% first ballot lock.

I tried to present the arguments against as they will be considered by the more curmudgeonly voters, many of whom seem to look for reasons NOT to vote a guy in. I wasn’t implying that I didn’t feel he was qualified because of all of those reasons. But I’m not the one standing between Hoffman and the Hall.

by HardballCooperative on Jun 17, 2009 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t disagree that there are some guys that get really screwy with their vote, but their are many players that are locks even though we know they won’t be unanimous. The guys listed above are perfect examples. We knew they wouldn’t be unanimous (though we held out hope), but we also knew that without a doubt they were first ballot HOFs.

Rivera and Hoffman won’t be unanimous, but I would guess they will get 95% and 90% respectively on their first ballot. A more divided arguement might be over somebody like John Franco or Billy Wagner.

by grant76 on Jun 17, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Or Dan Kolb

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 17, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Debate ender coming up

Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter were voted in to the Hall; they were certainly some of the pioneers of the closing role, but neither were as dominant nor as dominant for as long as Trevor Hoffman (by a long shot). If you acknowledge the closer role, which they did with Sutter in 2006 and Gossage in 2008, then you also acknowledge Hoffman as far better than either.
Furthermore, Rollie Fingers, probably the utmost pioneer for closer HOF recognition, got in on the second ballot. Now, maybe it’s a matter of debate between these two, but I’d lean towards Hoffman being more dominant because of his strikeout-ability. That, I think, suffices to bump him to first ballot.
The more arbitrary conclusion is that, yes, he was dominant in a time where players were juicing and the ball was leaving the park at alarming rates. This is the same kind of argument that should arise in reverence of guys like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Randy Johnson, sure-fire (and perhaps, sure-fire first-ballot) Hall-of-Famers.

Ay!

by Arthur Fonzarelli on Jun 16, 2009 7:37 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Not sure why

we are even having this conversation….Hall of Fame, book closed.

"I held it like and egg...? I know he scrambled the son of a bitch!"

by BRWRSFAN39 on Jun 21, 2009 4:13 AM CDT reply actions  

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