The Wednesday Mug
After your quick summary of yesterday's games and minor league storylines, on to the Brewers and baseball news of Wednesday, June 17th, 2009.
Dave Bush thinks he has a problem with his mechanics and will work on fixing it before his next start. The article also provides an encouraging line from Ken Macha-- he doesn't consider Casey McGehee an everyday player just yet. I've been as thrilled as anyone with McGehee's performance, but it's not a good idea to fully commit to a hot-hitting bench player with 70 at-bats and little track record. McGehee will likely not play today, he has a sore right knee and a sore left ankle.
Eric Gagne was roughed up in his first Canadian League start. 4 2/3 innings, 9 hits, 4 walks, and 5 runs, and no fastballs above 89 mph.
In "News that doesn't really surprise anybody", Sammy Sosa tested positive for a steroid in 2003. The ShysterBall take is an interesting one. Also in the steroid category, Selig points out that the NFL had or has just as big of a problem with steroids and the media mostly ignores it.
Here's even more from Beyond the Boxscore on the Disabled List, with leaderboards for individual careers and team days on the disabled list. Meanwhile, Furman Bisher is on the loose again, and he wants to do away with pitch counts. He referes to Javier Vazquez as "Valdez" at one point in the paragraph, so I am skeptical of his credibility at this point. Bill James and Joe Posnaski go back and forth about pitch counts at SI.
No one could have ever predicted that Russell Branyan would be a highly effective everyday corner infielder. No one.
I don't think you can compare a decent-hitting college catcher to a player who is on track to be one of the greatest catchers of all time just because they were both picked ahead of where they were supposed to go in the draft. Like the Chipper Jones chart last year, Musings has a .400 probability chart for Joe Mauer. Mauer is so good he could win the batting title right now even though he is 21 plate appearances short of qualifying-- being credited with an 0 for 21 would still keep his average in first.
Interesting that Brian Giles went from being "extremely underrated" to "the worst regular in baseball" within a year. It doesn't take long in baseball.
Here's something interesting-- a major national writer citing defensive statistics to support an argument that Derek Jeter has been a better fielder than usual this season.
The similarities between Manny Parra and Jonathan Sanchez were pretty striking in the first place, and now their struggles are following similar tracks-- both had 8ish k rates in each of the past two years and saw their walk rates jump from 4 to about 6. Parra is in AAA, and Sanchez's trade value is dropping.
On the trade market, Erik Bedard is healthy again. Why do I get the feeling that he will be a Brewer at some point this year?
Tango's blog has some batted ball velocity linear weights. Basically, hit the ball harder and you have a better chance at getting a hit or doing something productive.
Quevedo at the Buffet thinks that Gamel should be the everyday third basemen after the interleague trip is over. I'd start Hall sometimes versus lefties and use him as an 8th inning defensive replacement and let Gamel ride in all the other situations, with no playing time at third for McGehee. I'm curious as to which direction Melvin goes in. I can't see Gamel being sent down at this point.
Tonight's game is at 6:05 central in Cleveland, and the Brewer starting pitcher is Jeff Suppan.
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Dude!
I was just finishing up a community mug. It was short and relatively lame, so it’s just as well.
Ken Rosenthal also reported some Brewer interest in that Bedard character. We should have a pool to guess the first official-media mention of the annual “sending Jarrod Washburn to Milwaukee” rumor.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I was running behind today
You can always expect a mug unless told otherwise. I promised the first day that it would be erratically named and erratically timed, and that’s what I have delivered.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
WIAA
Jordan, what happened to your boy yesterday? Looks like he got knocked around a little bit.
Dont worry, my horse in that race got knocked out as well :(.
They hit two balls hard in the first inning, and then really got nothing after that until 2 outs in the seventh
Absolutely crazy game. There were two plays in which Wilmot had 2 runners on the same base. With us up 3-2, they had runners on second, second, and third w/ 2 out and while the catcher ran the runner on second back to first the runner on third scored to tie it before they got the out at first. There was an AB for us in which two doubles were initially called fair and then switched to foul after the runner was standing on second. And there was a botched squeeze play, and 3 overthrows by pitchers to first, and an injury to our second-best senior. The winning rally against Brad was an easy grounder to first that the hitter beat out, a bloop to left, and then a 2-strike, 2 out shot to left that was only after a pitch that sure as hell looked like it should have been called strike 3. Brad didn’t pitch too well, but they should’ve won that game. They and we recognize that it happens in baseball, and Brad’s looking forward to whatever the late summer brings in his baseball career.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
Crazy game for my team as well
Not “my” team, but the team for which there are family ties, was a crazy game. Took the lead, lost it twice. Game of inches, nothing you can do.
I agree with you on the Gamel / Hall situation
Here are the times Hall should be playing:
1) late inning defensive replacement when the brewers are up by less than two runs
2) starting no more than once a week, vs lefties only
3) when Cameron gets ejected and Gerut has already been used as a PH
4) as a PH vs a lefty
5) as a PH when up or down by a bunch or in otherwise low leverage situations
6) maybe once or twice at SS if Counsell is unavailable and Hardy needs a day off
Scouts...
“No one could have ever predicted that Russell Branyan would be a highly effective everyday corner infielder. No one.”
There were a few scouts last year that had postulated that if Branyan were allowed to hit against both RHP and LHP, that he would be much more effective.
Was my sarcasm not strong enough?
I argued this all of last April and May when he was in AAA and then August when Counsell somehow passed him up. Then he goes off and does well like many of us expected, and he “came out of nowhere”.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
Sorry..
Didn’t realize that was sarcasm. Wasn’t around here last April/May, or I would have agreed with you. I’ve always believed he would be a much greater force if he wasn’t automatically put in a platoon because of his Rob Deer-like 3TO reputation that was unfounded, because he had rarely gotten a legitimate chance.
by TheBurningRom on Jun 17, 2009 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed on Hall
But I think he was a little harsh. I see a big difference between Hall and guys like JJ or Kendall. With those guys you know that they’ll slump but that they are fundamentally good (well, more JJ than Kendall) and can figure things out at the plate. With Hall…every AB just looks terrible, he swings on so many pitches, and only seems to be focused on getting the ball in play. Gamel on the other hand seems to have good mechanics, some plate discipline (!), and of course some power. Plus, he’s wicked fast.
About McGehee – Macha’s right not to make him the consistant starter YET, but he’s on his way. I always thought he had potential with the Brewers (then again, I was comparing him to Duffy and Nelson, so in contrast, his .240 or whatever looked pretty damn good), can function as a utility player, can hit for power, etc. etc. When you have a big injury and several slumping players he’s a no-brainer.
captainbok: What do you like the most about milwaukee
Jeff Suppan: Captain Bok, that is a great question. Does "Bok" mean Book of Knowledge? My favorite thing about Milwaukee are the Brewers.
Interesting Discussion b/t James and Posnanski
Has anyone every seen anything systematic regarding pitch totals, pitch counts, and pitcher injuries? I like that people are questioning the 100-pitch count wisdom. On the other hand, I don’t want to see Gallardo throwing 160 pitches in his next start.
James also comes out with a great quote for those who who offer knee-jerk criticism for anyone who questions the conventional wisdom—“gutless conspirators in the mediocrity of the universe.” I think that would also be a great name for a Black Sabbath cover band.
Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.
I tried to get a conversation about this yesterday in the game thread
but nobody bit. I think the issue is that people are just very risk averse… it’s not like you can do a controlled experiment and randomize pitch counts. Everyone remembers Mark Prior (or add your favorite name) and nobody wants to take that risk no matter what the upside.
by keephopealive on Jun 17, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
it took me the entire game to read the article
They’re both opposed to pitch counts, but think that the health of pitchers is something the manager and upper management should consider. Rather logical.
I think they were calling for “further study” as well, and suggesting that every pitcher might be different (duh)
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 17, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
what if the upside is Nolan Ryan's career?
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
What if (Nolan Ryan in proportion to all other pitchers active at the same time) is the likelihood of that upside actually manifesting?
then the Rangers might suck for sometime
I think it is likely like Navy Seals training toughens those guys, Nolan Ryan’s ideas to increase pitch count maybe from the current pitch count limit of 100 to a higher 130- 140, especially for top pitchers is a good idea.
Especially with so much money put into pitchers, you want to get the most use out of them. It is like buying a $500 iPhone and using it once a week for a half hour… all I am saying, I dont think people need to be parinoid if they use the iPhone they will break it, much like starting pitchers…. certainly you dont want 28 complete games for rookies like Bid Bird Fidrych… but increasing workload 30% isn’t insane like some suggest just because Mark Prior’s body couldn’t hold up.
Obviously it isnt the same for every pitcher, but perhaps having baseball players workout as hard as Nolan Ryan did, and seriously commit to working out… much like football players do every year…could increase longevity and pitchers use, unlike Ben Sheets who was known to do absolutley nothing physical in the offseason.
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
that first paragraph didn't even resemble a coherent thought
But what I meant to say, is NAVY Seals train guys to deal with tough situations… maybe pitchers need the same type of training, and not just assume to put in 5.2 innings of work and hand it off to the bullpen every time.
I applaud his ideas, and maybe some pitchers get hurt, but the ones that work out could yield 30%-40% more for your money- and have longer career, and leave more room to sign a big bat instead of 7 relief pitchers. Perhaps the tradeoff makes sense… maybe it doesn’t. But I am interested to see the results… Moneyball 2.0 perhaps?
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Fair enough.
Though I have to point out that that elaborate description is a loooong way from “maybe the upside is Nolan Ryan’s career.” :) The question is, does getting 30% more for your money on individual pitchers still provide any overall surplus of value if you’re in turn churning through more guys (let’s say, 30% more) while trying to find those that can provide those improved performances.
In the end we’re probably trapped in the whole issue of risk-averseness (aversion? ESL fail…) – with the general habit of pointing more to failures than to successes, GMs are probably always better off in reputation by getting decent value from many players than excellent value from a few and nothing from several others, and it’ll take something big (like a WS appearance) to overcome that in case Nolan Ryan really gets to implement his ideas on a large scale.
Somehow I suspect the actual next step in starting pitcher usage might well be a further reduction in IP/game coupled with a return of four-man rotations… I’m not really a fan of designated “8th inning guys” (or even ones for the 7th inning), but with the closer precedent firmly set it looks more and more like many managers don’t exactly mind the certainty of many specific bullpen roles (not to mention many players also seem to like this). And if you’re reaching the point where 6 IP / 100 pitches become the upside of a starting pitcher’s performance rather than the approximate average like today, you might as well take out a rest day and lose those frequently-crappy fifth starters. Heck, some of them might even make for decent setup men…
I forgot to add: If that happens, I’d look for the top relief pitchers of each team to log more games and innings than nowadays, rather than a further expansion of the pitching staff.
I would agree
I thought teams might go to a 6 guys that go 4 innings… plus an ace that goes 7 or 8…
So the Brewers the team would line up like this
Game 1: Gallardo 7 innings / Hoffman 2
Game 2: Parra 4.1 innings McClung 4.2 innings
Game 3: Suppan 4.1 innings, Bush 4.2 innings
Game 4: Looper 4.2 innings/ Villanueva 4.1 innings
And give it to Gallardo again in game 5, shorter rest, and work your best player to get more innings…. really would depend on the construction of the team, but with the Brewers current team, one ace, and a lot of average guys, this might work- giving Gallardo more innings… let the rest of the bullpen clean up if a guy cant get through 4…
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Yep, I think something like that would work, too.
The key point in that is probably: There appear to be quite a number of decent pitchers who manage to go through the lineup twice just fine, but really struggle hard after that (apparently we faced one like that just last night), and they’re somewhat miscast both as modern-era starters and as one-inning relievers. Either way you’re not really getting optimum value out of them, and having two of those guys piggyback on each other’s appearances for ~4 innings apiece might well be a good solution, if it wasn’t for inertia and the pitcher win/loss rules.
I wonder if all these indignant sportswriters...
who refuse to vote for people accused of steroid use (like those who don’t vote for McGwire) are going to pump the canidacy of Shawn Merriman and Duece McAllister or many of the other banned substance suspendees when it comes to the NFL.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
HOF canidacy of Duece McAllister?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I was just giving examples of guys I know bave been popped
and besides, how do they handle Favre and his admittance to the Substance abuse program? The double standard just gets under my skin
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
also
the NFL has proven much easier to have fake drug tests, Tony Mandarich talked about it in an interview with using others urine, and it is a lot more common than people think…
I was reading some report asking why no one was asking why the Pittsburgh teams of the 70s aren’t tainted, because the defense all used performance enhancing drugs- and someone mentioned James Harrison has never been accused of steriods, despite being cut from NFL teams 2-3 times, then bulked up and is defensive player of the year out of nowhere… sounded fishy
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
The NFL doesn't have the same drug testing policy that it did years ago
Ever see Chris Cooley’s blog? They’re constantly testing guys, now.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Being addicted to painkillers should preclude the HOF?
And its worth noting that the addiction came about from playing with injuries. I don’t see a double standard.
Hey!
I finally figured it out! ol Pete is Brett Favre!
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably not the same group of writers, though I get your point.
Personally, while Bud’s point is accurate, I think it makes him look like an ass. I know my Dad was never impressed by the “all the other kids are doing it argument.” To the extent that Selig meant his comment as a media criticism and that the NFL problem should get more coverage, he’s right. To the extent that he will be interpreted as suggesting that the press just picks on baseball and the PED issue should get less coverage, it was a stupid thing to say.
The reason the NFL doesn’t get as much coverage for their steroid problem as baseball is four-fold, in my opinion. First, they acted on their steroid problem much, much sooner than the MLB did, and much longer ago in time. Second, they have plausible deniabiliy on the HGH front because there is (or was, if I missed a news story on a new test in the last year or so) no available way to test for it. Third, the NFL and its fans are less obsessed with stats than baseball is. Not to say that there aren’t people who freak out over rushing totals, QB ratings and other more sophisticated statistical tools to measure player effectiveness, but most HOF candidacies (for instance) are based on feelings rather than numbers. That is of course particularly true of offensive linemen, who have almost no popular statistical measure of their performance (though folks do keep track of things like sacks allowed, etc.) Even when numbers are a significant factor, (rushing yards, number of catches, passing yards, completion percentage) the numbers involved are significantly less mythologized than they are in baseball, and thus when the numbers (say Merriman’s sacks) may have been produced with the aid of PEDs, there’s less of a sense of betrayal among the fanbase because the mythologized numbers have been diminished.
Fourth, and probably most important, the press and much of the public appears to feel that baseball buried it’s steroid problem for money, particularly in the mid and late 90’s when it was still trying to recover from the lock-out and the lost World Series. The league looked the other way and so did the union, and then the union stonewalled attempts to address the problem made by the leagues later on. And the press was complicit in it too. The story was there, and with the acception of a couple of stories about Mac using Andro and Sosa using Creatine (both legal at the time), no one bothered to poke around to find out what was going on. There were more stories about juiced balls than juiced players. Now, in retrospect, I think that some members of the press (and the public) are as upset with themselves and their professions as they are the players because they blew the story, some say willfully, and ended up being the unofficial publicists for a bunch of cheaters. I suspect that the current coverage is in part a reaction to feeling like a bunch of morons.
Oh, and the federal indictments and lying before congress, something that the NFL players and league officials haven’t had to deal with (at least not yet), tend to draw press coverage too.
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with all of that
Especially the numbers being mytholigcal sense of the numbers… everyone knows 714 home runs that Ruth had… no one remembers Walter Payton’s rushing yards before emmit smith passed it.
The NFL isn’t innocent, but baseball has plenty of reasons to point to themselves and not other sports…. granted, today, it seems baseball is more strict than other sports in terms of suspensions, but perhaps, too little too late….
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
I'm sure there's plenty of hardcore football fans that could rattle off WP's yards
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
I'm sure there are too...
… but it’s a question of the lack of broader interest in those numbers than the depth of interest held by a few.
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
true
Ken Burns always talks about this in Baseball Documentary…
61 means something to people, Maris HR total… I am a fantasy football fanatic, and dont know what the rushing TD record is, or even single season, maybe 28 it was by LT- only because he was on my fantasy team am I close close to that prediction, I remember who broke it, but don’t know the number is the point…
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Interesting
Tonight’s lineup, via TH:
C Jason Kendall
2B Craig Counsell
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
CF Mike Cameron
SS J.J. Hardy
DH Mat Gamel
3B Bill Hall
I was a little upset that I was going to miss the first couple innings of the game tonight, but not anymore!
So Braun 3 and Fielder 4, and everyone else gets their names drawn out of a hat?
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess we'll really know whether lineup means anything tonight!
I think you’re right about the randomly assigned names! I hope Macha gets the scorecard right tonight or we’ll have Suppan bunting Cameron over in the 8 slot.
I miss Paul Molitor
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
by Kyguy922 on Jun 17, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I hear ya
"He had some firsts," said Brewers manager Ken Macha. "His first homer, his first Major League start, his first error and my first gray hair."
I think the optimized lineup tool usaully does have braun at the 2 spot
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Then you would have CC #3
And then the Indians’ LOOGY could face CC and Prince without having to face Braun. This way Wedge is forced to decide if he wants to neutralize CC with a LOOGY and then have him face Braun, or go LaRussa and use up three pitchers for three batters.
Concept, you have not.
by Getting Yosted on Jun 17, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
This is seriously fucking retarded
Better leadoff options than Jason Kendall v LHP, if you were to use a lineup generator or optimizer:
Craig Counsell
Ryan Braun
Prince Fielder
Corey Hart
Mike Cameron
J.J. Hardy
Mat Gamel
Bill Hall
Or in other words he picked the worst fucking option in the entire roster to get the most at-bats. Lineups don’t matter very much, but when you do something that idiotic, you deserve to get ripped on for it. This is the first time I’ve been pissed at Macha.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
by Jordan M on Jun 17, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Kendall's been doing well recently
In the month of June (12 games), Kendall’s hitting 0.333 and has raised his season OBP to 0.329. Counsel would be a better lead off man, but there’s no one else on the roster I’d like in the lead-off. Make your case for anyone or everyone else.
What if you started Gamel at third base
Than we could have Yovani DH and lead off!
:) + Suppan = :'(
And if you did have Yovani DH and lead off...
… you should definitely write in the word “, bitches.” next to the word “Lineup” at the top of the card.
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Rec'd.
While I agree on the substance of your post as well, I’m really giving you a rec because I find it wildly entertaining when you start dropping f-bombs.
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Why Counsell?
His OB against LH pitchers is .278 and his AV and SLG is .188. The only guy in tonights lineup with worse numbers is Hardy. Kendall is .348 OB .216 AVE and .297 SLG. You almost picked the “worst fucking option”.
Bit of an explanation
I am of the opinion that you have no idea when a slump will start or end. Therefore, you should make an assessment of what you expect from a player based on how they have performed in the past with an emphasis on recent performance. Against a lefthander, a case could be made that Kendall is a better option than Fielder. I would like to see an argument for Kendall over any of the other hitters in the lineup. Kendall’s maybe a .320-.330 obp guy at this point, and I’d say all the rest of the hitters would project better— not to mention that you want a good hitter leading off, not a .260 slg guy.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
fuck the POS lineup generator
Kendall is hitting over .300 and his on base is over .400. There is more that goes into evaluating at bats than just average and on base as well.
The idiotic lineup generator ignores a whole host of factors. Its fucking retarded to not consider those factors and the fucking manager has to do that.
"Kendall is hitting over .300 and his on base is over .400."
Either I’m missing some sarcasm here or it’s really the year 2000 instead of 2009.
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2009 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he means this month
I just don’t think that him hitting well for the past month has any predictive value in today’s game. I assume he’s a .320-.330 obp, .300 slg guy. And yes there are other factors. But if you think Kendall’s .320/.300, why would you hit him leadoff if Hardy’s .360/.430 and Hall’s .340/.400 vs lefties? I couldn’t care less if they look like leadoff hitters or not, it’s just a spot in the lineup.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
Last night Kendall's BA and OBP were both less than .200.
Clearly, we should cut him.
I actually sort of like Kendall, but hitting him leadoff when Counsell’s in the lineup seems pretty assinine to me. I doubt Macha will make a habit of it.
i have a reasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 18, 2009 6:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Leadoff guy
We can probably all agree that the lineup looks ok except for Kendall in the top spot. Not sure about the alternative.
Counsell hasn’t hit lefties real well this year, but has been ok in his career.
Mike Cameron has also led off in the past, but is mired in a dreadful slump.
Corey Hart has been swinging a hot bat though. He might have been a better choice.

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