Would you trade Prince Fielder for Matt Cain?
by backtocali on Jun 22, 2009 10:50 AM CDT
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Many posts and stories have been done about the Brewer pitching staff, and its recent decline. Like many of the frequent visitors to this site, I am of the opinion that the Brewers need to add a starting pitcher to make a playoff run this season. Manny Parra's slide has only exacerbated the weakness that the Brewer starting rotation is not quite built for to make a playoff run.
But what to do? I have always thought that the Giants would be a perfect place for Fielder after his time was done with the Brewers because of salary issues (the Giants or a big market AL club where he could be a DH). The big question is whether or not the Brewers could score enough runs to win without Fielder in the lineup. There is no doubt that the team needs another pitcher. The nice thing about dealing for a guy like Cain would be that he is currently cheaper than Fielder and he would be under team control for two more years.
Fielder currently has a 2.5 WAR vs. Cain's 1.5. That could be balanced by the Giants sending Travis Ishikawa over as well to balance out the trade. Ishikawa is currently at 0.5, but the difference between Fielder and Cain's salaries would at the very least make up for that 0.5 WAR lacking on the Brewer end. If anything, the Giants might even want a prospect going their way to make it a deal worth considering.
In a trade like the one I mention above, the Brewers get an upgrade in the pitching staff, they get a replacement level player to take over at 1B, and in the end improve the team overall. The Giants have a ready made replacement for Cain in either Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner (yes, they are both MLB ready now) and they upgrade their offense to make a possible playoff run.
One other possibility would be Cain for JJ Hardy and Corey Hart. The problem is that you replace Hart with Gerut, which in the end may not be all that bad, but Gerut has not performed well at all since joining the team. I have no fears at all about Alcides Escobar taking over for Hardy at SS though, as his defense would improve the pitching overall, and his offense couldnt be much worse than what Hardy is giving the team right now. The giants would improve themselves offensively here as well, but Hardy might have to play 2B until the Renteria contract expires and no body knows if he could actually do this.
Will Melvin pull the trigger on a deal like that (either of them listed above), probably not. But would you?
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I don't remember the source...
…so take it for what it’s worth, which may be little.
I heard that the Brewers offered that trade (Fielder for Cain, straight up) to the Giants, who turned it down. Apparently it was on the table for much of the offseason.
Also, cheese.
Giants GM,
Brian Sabean likes to have a strong defensive 1B. That’s why they stuck with JT Snow for so many years and why Travis Ishikawa is getting a long look. It is doubtful that the Giants would give up much of anything for Prince Fielder.
If it was the offseason, maybe
then you get Gamel at first for all of spring training, and if everything else happened the same you’d have McGehee as the everyday third baseman and Counsell every day at 2nd. Or you have more of a reason to move Hardy to third and bring up Escobar…
Or, you do it before Branyan signs with someone and have him as the everyday 1B.
Now though, I don’t think you can involve Fielder. A trade involving Hardy would be a lot easier to absorb.
I think Max Walla could learn first base really fast.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 22, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Tank the rest of the season
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your 2010 First Baseman: Bryce Harper!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
That would be hard
The Nats are on pace to win 48 games. We’ve already won 37. My theory: Jim Bowden really, really wanted Harper, and now Kasten and Rizzo are on board, too.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 22, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
oh yes
not the way he is now, but the SI article last month only brought everybody else up to speed.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 22, 2009 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions
No, I mean "on the radar" in the sense of...
was anybody in baseball already aware that Harper would be taking this GED→2010 draft shortcut?
Of course, the Nats might well have the first pick in 2011, too…
I read the SI article
and, sorry, but it’s hard not to, well, wonder a little if the kid isn’t maybe taking extra vitamins or something. Let’s assume he isn’t…can the Nats do anything but draft the kid, sign him, then hope they’ll be able to come up with a smart trade later?
better suited for the OF
I dont think Walla has the size for 1B. The only reason Fielder can stick there is because of his bat, and that he has no where else he can play. Besides, Walla is at least 3 years away if not more.
Prince isn’t exactly your prototypical 6’4 1B with a long reach either
"Today is."
by juggernaut400 on Jun 22, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Thread KoJack fail
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
In my perfect world...
Max would be Team Korea’s first-base and power-wallah.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 22, 2009 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't do it
and neither would San Fran, as they have the illusion of competing right now considering they are in the lead for the Wild Card. I don’t see why this conversation keeps coming around when Sabean obviously won’t do it.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Wow
I posted the same fanpost on the Giants board to see what they would think and they were quite annoyed the the idea.
The thing I dont get is that the Giants definitely need a power hitter in the middle of their somewhat anemic offense, they have pitching to spare. Both players are all star quality this year.
Im a little shocked to see the reaction they showed. Not so much on this end, as Fielder is the face of the franchise and people here love the HR.
I believe the Brewers '09 marketing campaign has proven that Braun is the face of the franchise
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
That's because its been discussed there ad infinitum
What’s the point of asking? I suppose it means that you hate Fielder and want to vent.
regulars at McCovey Chronicles use “Cain for Fielder” or (Cane for Felder!) as a punchline. It was so thoroughly discussed last offseason that proposing it anymore, when we all know it won’t happen, it just beating a dead horse. It’s a tired subject over there and that’s why you get the annoyance when you want to seriously discuss it.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 22, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
The response over there probably seems pretty mind-boggling, but this concept has literally had probably at least a thousand comments of discussion at this point. The consensus has been pretty safely established: it’s a very fair trade in a vacuum, but the downgrade from Cain to the next starter in line (and no, Bumgarner and Alderson are NOT ready yet) makes the upgrade from Ishikawa to Fielder less than it would seem on face value.
Look at the Giants rotation right now: Cain and Lincecum are both awesome, but the rest of the starters are are in the 80-90 range in ERA+. I don’t think you can expect a call-up (whether it’s Kevin Pucetas, Ramon Ortiz or even Tim Alderson) to do much better than Zito/Johnson/Sanchez have. All of a sudden, the Giants rotation is very ordinary and the offense is still pretty mediocre, even with Prince.
This might a deal worth revisiting in the offseason, when it’s likely we’ll have a better idea of how close to the majors Alderson and Bumgarner really are and the Giants aren’t in the middle of the playoff hunt, but in season, it makes very little sense.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
I'm not sure that's a consensus
There are plenty of laughable trade proposals like Braun for Cain. That isn’t someone being sarcastic, its actually serious. Regardless, its a worthless discussion because it won’t happen. It likely won’t happen in the off-season either.
The funniest comment was when someone said they thought backtocali was a Giants fan. As near as I can tell, he just hates the Brewers.
I mean the McCoven consensus.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
The community at McCovey Chronicles.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Or
the community of Irish witches that emigrated to the States to flee the potato famine.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 22, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Witch ones?
I suppose if you’re of the McCoven, you’re always happy to offer arbitration to impending free agents, so that you can get the sandwitch pick.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Jun 22, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Boom, Roasted
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
that's it!
I’m starting a blog about BOTH “American Movie” AND this horror-movie of a potential trade and calling it the Coven Chronicles.
And see “American Movie” if you haven’t already. Awe-inspiring.
What? I was responding to backtocali’s befuddlement at our reaction to his trade proposal and explaining why we wouldn’t be receptive to discussion of it. I didn’t say that the consensus all around the baseball world was such, just that – at McCovey Chronicles – there have been thousands of comments on the subject and, at this point, most of us agree that while Cain for Fielder is fair in a vacuum (and possibly even favors the Giants), it’s a trade that doesn’t really make sense when you take into account the repercussions of it. That’s all.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
All I'm saying is when I go read some there
the trade is routinely considered as unfair and tilted toward the Brewers. I agree that it is a worthless discussion, as the chances for it happening are near zero.
Am I taking crazy pills?!
Cain is not worth Fielder, contract considerations included…
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
An if as big as Prince's a$$
But if Prince finishes the season with the 300/420/600 line he is putting up now, that is pretty similar to what Pujols put up in his age 25 season(330/420/610).
I can’t tell if Cain was incredibly unlucky in his first couple seasons ERA wise, or if he is incredibly lucky this season but there is no real change to his K/BB/HR rates this season over his previous ones but he went from 120is ERA+ to 191. He must be more consistent. Or confident. He’s got three complete games, so it’s possible he’s a winner now. Not sure if a consistent, confident winner is more valuable than a fat Pujols.
by Getting Yosted on Jun 22, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Another reason it won't happen
Giants, right now, are actually 0.5 games ahead of us in the wildcard hunt. Neither GM wants to take a risk that a trade with the other team will go south from their team’s perspective.
Yes, they might be seen as a hero if they get the trade right and screw the other side and our team advances but a) that might start bad blood with the opposing team and b) most GMs are more afraid of being a “zero” and losing their job than look forward to being a “hero” and only getting a slight increase in pay and contract lifetime. Because if we did trade Fielder for Cain, Cain’s shoulder blows out in the 3rd week we have him, and Fielder goes on to lead the Giants to the world series, Melvin WOULD be fired. Same for the giants GM if Prince were to have a sudden heart attack post-trade:P
You might pull a similar trade with an AL team in the wildcard hunt, or an NL team completely out of it (or a “lock” I suppose). But you’re not going to see a trade between rivals for the same playoff slot. Pre-wildcard era, you may have seen a trade like this go down (as we’d not be competing for the same slot). Now, no chance in hell.
He's still good but he's not nearly as good as his ERA would suggest this season
it would be buying high. It’s a fair proposal, but I’m not positive I would do it.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
..
im convinced escobar could hit .280 with some pop when he grows into his frame a little more. also a much better defender than the hugely overrated jj hardy
by BrewerBlue87 on Jun 22, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Have you seen Escobar on steroids?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Prince
needs to go to the AL after his time in Milwaukee is done.
"He had some firsts," said Brewers manager Ken Macha. "His first homer, his first Major League start, his first error and my first gray hair."
We'll trade him to whoever is giving the best offer
We’ll trade him to whoever is giving the best offer. Why should the team care if he’d be best off in the AL? As long as the trade partner thinks he’ll be OK, it doesn’t matter. He’s doing just fine in the NL right now, and I’m sure he’ll do just fine until this contract is up, no matter which league he’s playing in. The talk about him needing to be a DH comes from the idea that a man that big is bound to have knee problems as he gets older. As young as he is, He’s probaby got a few years left until those knee problems kick in.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
The Astros seem to think Carlos can play LF
"Today is."
by juggernaut400 on Jun 23, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
My point
is that AL teams are likely to offer more for him because Prince can play 2 positions in the AL.
"He had some firsts," said Brewers manager Ken Macha. "His first homer, his first Major League start, his first error and my first gray hair."
I don't understand what is wrong with you guys
Prince is the Brewers best player and their team leader. The Crew is nothing without him. That’s that.
Well...
Do you envision him staying his whole career here? I don’t. I see no reason to think that our “team leader” wouldn’t jump ship at the first opportunity if more cash is involved.
Prince is not only very good, but he’s consistently very good. However, he’s replaceable, and although there is a dropoff from him to, say, Gamel, that dropoff isn’t crippling - especially if we get a pitcher who can go, you know, 7 innings and keep us in the game.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Yes, Fielder will be expensive
But I have no idea where the universal consensus came from that there is no way he will stay in Milwaukee. Being a fan favorite and a power-hitter, he’s the sort of “franchise player” that teams are willing to spend a lot of money to keep – and the money is basically already there anyways. Assuming he would get a multi-year deal somewhere just over $20 million (I think that’s a reasonable guess):
2009 – Fielder’s salary = $6.5 million, Suppan’s salary = $12.5 million
2010 – Fielder’s salary = $10.5 million, Suppan’s salary = $12.5 million
Assuming (I refuse to consider the alternative) that the Brewer’s don’t exercise Suppan’s 2011 $14.75 million option/buyout, that’s almost $25 million freed up in 2011 and over $20 million per year off the books that can be given to Fielder.
I mean, the Brewers already offered Fielder-type money to Sabathia for a long-term deal, and personally I would much rather have Fielder into his 30’s than Sabathia for half a decade.
Obviously, this kind of unrealistically devotes all of the money freed up from losing Suppan to one player, which ignores other needs the team will have to fill. But considering the team payroll should be increasing in the near future – and considering a huge contract was already considered feasible in the case of Sabathia – I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Fielder could stay in Milwaukee – especially considering the Brewers look like they’re going to have at least a chance of playing in October for the next couple seasons, and it would be fairly unpopular to dismantle the cornerstone of a winning team just to save money.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
The consensus
(a) He’s one of the worst-fielding 1Bs in baseball right now. Two years from now, he won’t be any better, and he may well be worse. If he gets a long-term deal (as seems likely), we’d be signing him to be a full-time first baseman well into his early, even mid-30s. For most people (including me), that’s the end of the story.
(b) even if you DO think he can stick at 1B, he’s hurting you there. He’s an enormously (chortle) valuable player, but he isn’t as valuable as some people think, because you’ve got to subtract at least a half-win per year due to the glove. Maybe the Astros will come along and give him a Carlos Lee deal despite that, but I don’t think the Brewers would make that mistake.
© He’s part of a whole generation of guys who are moving through arb into FA simultaneously. Rickie, JJ, Corey, Prince … all basically on the same schedule. Signing Prince to a big contract, considering the money already committed to Braun and required for other things (like a pitching staff), would probably mean letting go ALL of the other three. Which creates another money squeeze unless all of those holes can be filled from within.
(d) The long-term deal to Braun, among other things, says that the “face of the team” has been chosen, as it were. Let’s say this offseason Gallardo gets a six- or seven-year extension. When that press conference happens, Prince might as well start shopping for houses in New York or LA.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 23, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
(my third point is copyrighted. all rights reserved.)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 23, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Teddy Higuera anyone?
Although Gallardo is definitely an Ace in the making, if not one already, I dont think I want to see them offer him a long term deal until he can be healthy into at least his first or second arb year.
And I agree with what you have said about Fielder. I dont care very much about his defense or lack of it, but if you can hide that aspect of his game (DH) then a team will do it. When his time comes, Fielder and Boras will leave Milwaukee.
And btw, that Sabathia contract, if it had been signed, would have crippled the franchise for years to come as the Reds and Griffey and the Rangers and ARod did. Attanasio’s irrational exuberance would have gotten the best of the franchise and the city in that case. Hopefully he doesnt try to venture down that road again.
e)
Boras client. Assuming he has a couple of good seasons coming into free agency, he WILL go free agent and look for the best deal possible in terms of money. Brewers will likely not match that offer, and even if they do, Boras may not let Fielder listen (if the Brewers initially lowballed)
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 23, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions
You assume Fielder can't learn CF!
I don’t dispute that Fielder’s defense hurts his value, but his offense is still enough to compensate for it. Even in his worst defensive year (2007) he put up a $20 million season. Granted, that was the year he hit 50 HR, but his potential to put up another season like that in the future is precisely why I think he’s worth the huge contract. Having Fielder as he enters the peak age for power – especially given the vastly improving plate discipline he’s showing this year – outweighs the value lost by his defense, in my opinion.
That being said, regardless of whether or not it’s a good idea, I was just trying to point out that signing Fielder long-term is feasible. And I still think it is, if only just because of the offer made to Sabathia. And even if we assume he does leave as soon as his contract runs out, that still doesn’t mean that it’s worth trading him before then (and essentially negating the team’s chances in 2009/2010).
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Measuring the defense is difficult
UZR, the most popular measure, has many flaws. Its ability to measure performance of 1st base is questionable to the point that Mitch Lichtman felt compelled to write an article defending it. I’d call it the proverbial weak sauce.
® Do the Gigantos need a leadoff hitter? Jason Kendall for Matt Cain!!!!!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
We're full up on crazy in this thread
You need to save it for the game thread, but get in early. Even those are filling up quickly.
by Getting Yosted on Jun 23, 2009 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
The only point not made yet is:
who puts butts in the seats…a slugging 1B/DH or a better than average starter? There are owners out there who care A LOT about that.
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