Rumorville: Corey Hart
by roguejim on Jun 24, 2009 11:35 AM CDT
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PrintWe haven't had a good rumor in a while, but Ken Rosenthal is here to fix us right up:
The Brewers' quest for pitching could lead to renewed talks with the Braves, who in the past have targeted Brewers right fielder Corey Hart. The Braves would need to clear their own right fielder, Jeff Francoeur, before acquiring Hart, and no team is hot after Francoeur.
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| Don't mess around with a guy in shades, oh no. (Jim Prisching / Associated Press) |
The problem for the Brewers in trading Hart is their lack of a suitable replacement. Still, the Braves are deep in pitching — and could get even deeper if right-hander Tim Hudson returns from Tommy John surgery in mid-August.
Francoeur's stats, such as they are, are here. You'll notice that he hasn't had an OPS north of .660 since 2007, so you can see why the Braves want to be rid of him. Corey Hart's stats are here, and you can see he's performing slightly better than last season. Still, a sub-.800 OPS for a corner outfielder is disappointing.
What's interesting about the idea of trading Hart is that we DO have some replacement for him. For one, Frank Catalanatto, who surprisingly is in fact a Brewer, has a career .820 OPS against RHP, whereas he struggles against lefties. Meanwhile, Mat Gamel, who will either be headed to 1B or, you guessed it, right field if he can't stick at third, doesn't seem to have a problem against LHP: in the majors, he has a slightly higher OPS against lefites, and in Nashville he pummelled southpaws. Gerut and McGehee have also seen time in right field.
As to Braves pitching, well, there are two big names that jump out at me right away. The first is Derek Lowe, though I doubt the Brewers want any part of paying Lowe $15 million per season for the next 4 years. Still, Lowe has given up 3 or fewer runs in all but 3 of his 2009 starts, making him someone we definitely could use. A more likely target is former Expo Javier Vazquez, who I thought was washed up 5 years ago, but has turned it around, sporting a 3.18/1.05/.228 line in 2009. He is getting paid $11.5 million for each of 2009 and 2010.
For Corey Hart, keep in mind that this is his first year of arbitration. He's eligible for arbitration in 2010 and 2011, and can be a free agent in 2012 (along with Prince, Rickie, and Todd Coffey).
Assuming Gamel can play in right field, this is an easy way to get him in the lineup more --- after all, we certainly don't want to keep Bill Hall's .197 BA out of the game. Besides, if the sentiment is that Prince isn't going anywhere until 2012, I think right field will be the only place to put Gamel. Moreover, I think it's conceivable that we could make a trade like this without giving up a top prospect like Escobar, given how much money is involved. Although this is (so far) strictly speculation by Rosenthal, I could see some interest in this, at least on the Brewers' end.
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RF
If the Braves would take Hart for Vazquez, I’d do it in a heartbeat. The upgrade in pitching would easily be worth the dropoff in offensive production in RF. I think they’d want more.
I also think it would be too much to ask for Gamel to switch positions during the season. I think a more realistic scenario would be where we trade Hart + prospect for Vazquez and Frenchy. As much as Francoeur has sucked offensively, if you look closer he’s basically Bill Hall – good vs lefties, terrible vs righties. He’s also still a solid defender.
You run a Cat and Frenchy platoon in right and you should get decent production.
by kingcharlesxii on Jun 24, 2009 12:18 PM CDT reply actions
I'm not so sure
about Frenchy, that is. For his career, yes, he’s been very solid against lefties. However, this season his OPS against LHP is .733, and last year was an abysmal .580. I was thinking about including Francoeur in the deal, but I think he might be done.
Yeah, the Braves might want more, though I guess it depends on how much of Vazquez’s salary they’d be eating. At the very least, I think you can have a Hart/Vazquez trade discussion that doesn’t involve also trading Hart or Escobar, so it’s worth considering.
You might be right about Gamel, too - although I’m suggesting moving him to right, I have no idea how quickly it would take to make that adjustment. Perhaps longer than the all-star break? :) I’m reasonably confident that Gerut can play right field, though I’m not terribly eager to get his Hall-like batting average in the lineup.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
more on RF
Yeah, I don’t think it would take an elite prospect to get that deal done, more of a mid-level prospect.
I think the better option if you don’t get Francoeur back would be to let Gamel play at 3rd (he’s bad but not Ryan Braun-level bad) and see if Hall can handle RF. I’d say that change is more likely to work. Then you can have Hall play RF vs lefties and back up at 3rd in a pinch.
by kingcharlesxii on Jun 24, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
A change of scenery might do Francoeur good. The pressure of trying to be the “hometown hero” has got to be intense.
"Today is."
by juggernaut400 on Jun 24, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
It’s not only that his reputation precedes him, but his .933 fielding percentage isn’t so hot (in admittedly a small sample of 15 games).
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
the reputation thing isn't worth much
There is no way of even knowing what goes into the snark of the Keith Laws or Kevin Goldsteins. It could be virtually nothing. Other than that there are blog/forum experts who say among other things that Gamel can’t play the outfield because his arm is too weak.
I assume you’ve seen the 15 games so I’m curious which plays he has failed to make in your judgment.
Umm, yeah, whatever
Does his .879 fielding percentage in the minors fall into the “virtually nothing” category?
Frankly, I would love it for him to work at third base. If he can’t, though, our best bet is to hide him at either 1st or right field. I don’t think I’m breaking new ground by saying so…
As for the plays he failed to make, I’m specifically referring to the 45th, 67th, and 103rd. Frankly, his 98th could have gone either way.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
whatever is right
I can remember him making two misplays. I guess you don’t remember any.
The best part is you’re ready to move him now based on his minor league FP.
I know you're joking, but he's actually made 2 errors in 30 chances
His range looks pretty good to me. I’ve been encouraged by what I’ve seen so far. It’s okay if he’s a -5 to -10 defender, as long as he stays out of Braun-like -20 or worse territory.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
Ay, there's the rub
If he can - and I hope he does, because slugging 3rd basemen aren’t easy to come by - that would be great! Not so much for my Corey Hart trade post, but for the Brewers and Brewer fans, there would be much rejoicing.
Butttt…it’s hard to envision that particular future. I agree that Gamel’s looked pretty good at third so far, better than I expected, and I think we could live with 20-25 errors over the course of one full season at third. I’d be hard-pressed to see Gamel maintaining his current level of defense, though. By comparison, Braun had an .899 fielding percentage in the minors, including a .954 in AAA (compared to .918 for Gamel). By these accounts, and obviously fielding percentage doesn’t tell the whole story, Gamel is worse at third base than Braun, and not by a little.
Now, who knows, maybe Willie Randolph has taken Gamel under his wing, or something. Still, if there are only two positions you could move him to, and one of them may be opening up…I guess you have to consider it.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
His current pace for a full season is -6 UZR
Which doesn’t mean a whole hell of a lot in 30 chances. Just purely from my observations and a few Brewerfan threads I’ve read through, a lot of people agree with me that Braun had so very little range at third— he just wasn’t a fit there. What I’ve seen from Gamel gives me hope that he’s going to be better than even -15 (and it’s hard to be worse than that), and that would be an upgrade from Hall and McGehee. And if he does play pretty well there we’re looking at a very nice player. Looking at minor league fielding percentages won’t convince me that Gamel isn’t / wasn’t better at third than Braun.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
That could be
Plus, I’d think if throwing is your sore spot at third base, then having a lot of range would result in more throws and, hence, more errors. (For better or for worse.)
It does make you wonder: how did Braun’s fielding percentage get so low with such a poor range? Yikes.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Hmm. So which is better?
Having poor range and allowing a bunch more singles to go through or having a whole bunch of throwing errors and allowing the runner to go to second then?
Also, would poor range almost be preferable to poor throwing when we also have a very good defensive shortstop playing next to the third basemen? For instance, I have heard that Escobars range is outstanding. Were Escobar to start in the future would it than be better for the Brewers if their third baseman was able to throw the ball and let Escobar handle the ground balls out of the 3B’s range? Of course, that wouldn’t help as much if the 3B couldn’t range to his left, but still.
:) + Suppan = :'(
As fas as stats are concerned
I’d assume the players with the best fielding percentages are the ones with no range. For Gamel and Escobar, maybe Gamel can flip the ball to Escobar, and he can fire it to first. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
This is one thing that it took me a long time to grasp re: defensive stats
You would think a player with good range/bad arm and a player with bad range/good arm would both be roughly average, because you’d assume they balance out and have the same value. That’s really not the case, range is actually a lot more important (within reason). Look at it as if you have the most sure-handed glove guy in the league, they hit 100 balls at him and he gets 80 and throws them all out. Then you have a different guy that gets to 95 of those balls and throws out 85. The second one is a better defender, but the first one gets more recognition.
Braun was -23 on defense per UZR in his 2/3 of a season at third. -17 runs from range, -6 extra runs from 29 errors.
I last May, still no more than Nick Neugebauer not.
OK
But than in RE: Your scenario with the hundred balls to two different players, which would result in more runs for the other team: the 15 extra (probably) singles that the poor-range guy didn’t get to or the guy who throws ten errors and allows those ten runners to get to second base, but still gets 5% more outs?
:) + Suppan = :'(
It's been a while since that particular bit of speculation but...
at the time of Braun’s switch to the outfield, wasn’t the line that he might later move to RF and Gamel could go to left because Ryan’s arm is the one better suited for the long throws?
Gamel at third
Gamel’s minor league defensive numbers were atrocioius. Is it possible he has improved to be just below average (as opposed to a complete butcher)? I sure hope so as third base is obviously a hole.
So far, his defensive numbers are ok and if they were to continue, I think he becomes an option at third.
I am skeptical. His reptuation has always been that he will look ok for a while, and then go through a brutal stretch where he just piles up the errors. Time will tell.
So far, he has really been protected defensively (and wisely so IMO), so I don’t think we can draw too many inclusions. These things take time to play out.
Rather than move Gamel to left, I think Braun has improved enough that I would probably prefer seeing him move to right with Gamel in left.
by badgermaniac on Jun 24, 2009 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Minor league defensive numbers
confounded by a litany of factors → ability to extrapolate conclusions, limited and tenuous.
I had no idea you felt that way.
Tell us more.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 25, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Is it more than a feeling?
So many prospects have come and gone
Their faces fade as the years go by
Yet I still recall as I wander on
As clear as the sun in the summer sky
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Jun 25, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
This plan seems to give Bill Hall more PT. No like.
Couple this with a fake injury to hall, let’s do it.
Corey hates this team anyway.
lol, that's true
an unfortunate byproduct might be getting Hall more playing time. Think of it this way - we can use Hall as our leadoff hitter to give Kendall a break. :)
I’d also been wondering about how much Hart likes being a Brewer. I don’t think he’s much of a fan. He might like being traded to Atlanta, which is a lot closer to his home state of Kentucky.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
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