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Tuesday's Pitcher of Draft

"You think Paxton's a good call at 26, dude?" (AP Photo/John Amis)

More photos » by John Amis - AP

"You think Paxton's a good call at 26, dude?" (AP Photo/John Amis)

Today is draft day! (well, at least rounds 1-3). The best way to start off your draft-related coverage today is with an interview between Sky Kalkman and John Sickels at Beyond the Boxscore. Here's the Draft Day Discussion thread at Minor League Ball, and we'll have plenty of coverage tonight here at BCB. The Washington Post has a little overview of the whole Strasburg situation, and the Nats fans want him. 

I am utterly shocked that there is a group of people that would opt to not pick Strasburg. Sure, there's a risk involved, but you just cannot pass on him. And mechanics analyzation is not yet to the point where it can be used to predict injury. The first link in that sequence is the most confusing-- the author contends that he's not a better prospect than Prior or Lincecum was, because they were all ranked #1 in their class. He suggests taking a position player. I don't think it's a good argument.

The Journal-Sentinel has a list of players the Brewers might target at +26, some of which match up with those we've been discussing here. The draft-day Bruce Seid quote story can be found here. It will be interesting to see how his draft strategy differs from the strategy of his predecessor. McCalvy's preview is better than the JS ones.

More draft notes: Dave Cameron says drafting pitchers in the first round is not a good gamble, and Lookout Landing has an excellent (and of course humorous) overview. Another post, also from Graham at LL, is why you should care as much as we do. Fire Jim Bowden (which has an excellent writer) has a cool breakdown of draft economics.

Rich Harden and Aaron Miles made rehab starts last night, and The Cub Reporter has a good breakdown of Harden's velocity and stuff. He will probably be returning soon.

Two good FJM-Style bashings of Jeff Gordon's article about the Brewers, Tom Glavine, and Pedro Martinez, from Chuckie Hacks and Brewed Sports. Jeff Gordon had his own FJM tag, my foolproof way of determining whether a writer sucks or not. On the subject of FJM, I found this from Baseball Primer: Ken Tremendous Twitter, and it appears to actually be Michael Schur. Also from Brewed Sports, Joe Sheehan continues to confuse me and everyone else.

NBC Sports Circling the Bases Blog caught a rare invocation of Rule 6.08 in the Red Sox/Rangers game on Sunday-- an umpire called Kevin Youkilis out for failing to avoid a pitch. Terry Francona came out of the dugout to argue, and then later admitted he was wrong and tried to apologize.

Today's Joe Posnaski link is a discussion column at SI.com with Bill James, about the value of a walk. Walks have gone past the "undervalued" stage now, but those two know what they're talking about.

Murray Chass, who does not have a blog, has a blog entry about the A's young rotation, Strasburg, and other things.

This is a bit of a problem in the baseball blogging section of the Internet-- somebody has a hot start, and immediately gets accused of using steroids. Besides the fact that we have no proof that using a magic drug is going to make a hitter hit a few more homers early in a year(or play better defense, or draw more walks, or have a higher BABIP-- all things Ibanez has done), it's just irresponsible and annoying. I think the author rightfully gets called out for it by this Philly Enquirer writer. Over a half of a season, players are capable of major flukes. Every time somebody gets hot, are we going to throw out a steroid allegation? I understand David Pinto's point here at Musings, transparency would be cool, but... I really think there's this misconception that steroids are a magic potion that allows bloops to fall in and a hitter to strike the ball more solidly. They're not.

Three Fangraphs links today-- how did Cristian Guzman go from being one of the worst players in baseball to a decent player, a look at Jamie Moyer and other good-hitting pitchers-- Gallardo gets a mention, and a little Hit f/x data from April: the Brewers had the sixth highest average speed of ball off the bat in the majors. I have permission to access the April Hit f/x database, so you'll be getting a post soon about the top hitters by contact and the hardest hit balls. There's more general Hit f/x stuff in this Harry Pavlidis article at THT.

From Driveline Mechanics, here's an interesting way to look at Hall of Fame credentials based on the "winning player" theory.

I think these can be put to good use. The group of Brewers blogs on the internet is so awesome.

Vote for the Brewers in the all-star game balloting if you get the chance.

Tonight the Brewers do actually play a baseball game. Braden Looper and the super splitter face Jason Hammel and the Rockies. Game time is 7:05 in Milwaukee.

The draft begins tonight at 5pm central on MLB network and live on MLB.com. Besides our draft coverage here at BCB, check out the Brewerfan.net Draft forum-- they'll keep you up to date with the best scouting reports you can find anywhere, and fantastic discussion about the picks. We'll hope to see everyone around tonight for both big events, even if I won't be around (high school baseball sectionals take precedence).

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I don't know

Dustin Ackley is getting compared to Fred Lynn. With the much higher injury risk for pitchers, it’s not crazy. I assume that at least some of these scouts know what they’re talking about and that it’s not all groupthink, so I have to think that if I was in their position (i.e. informed), I’d be taking Strasburg too. But I think the Mariners are getting a hell of a player.

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on Jun 9, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What's the upside for Strasburg, though?

He’s 16 to 1 k:bb, we know about his stuff. I agree that the Mariners are getting a good player whatever they do (unless they pick a reliever). I had more of a problem w/ the dugout central argument that Strasburg isn’t better than Prior or Lincecum because they were all #1 prospects w/ #1 fastballs and #1 curves. The dude sits 98 and has hit 102 and with that curve, and slider, and change? I mean, could you make a video game pitcher with a better repitoire if I don’t allow a knuckleball?

And I’m definitely influenced by LL, where they have continually disproven that you can predict injury from mechanics. It’s kinda a guessing game. Then what pitcher do you take, ever? His mechanics look smooth to me.

I think Strasburg will be in the majors by August if he signs quickly. Graham predicted he’d be rookie of the year in the NL this year.

I don’t think you could defensibly pass on Strasburg if you can sign him somewhat reasonably. That’s not because Ackley or anyone is bad, I think Ackley’s a #1 in probably the several of the previous years. But Strasburg is on a different level. Above any college pitcher ever, from what I gather from everything I’ve read.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jun 9, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That argument drives me nuts (the dugout central one)

Because other #1 overall picks that were pitchers failed, they shouldn’t pick Strasburg? He’s on a different level. It doesn’t hurt to acknowledge that.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jun 9, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've read the same things you've read

Like I said, I would almost certainly take Strasburg. But it’s not crazy to wonder if the Fred Lynn-upside hitter is a better bet for more six-year value than a pitcher—any pitcher. It has nothing to do with Strasburg in particular, his mechanics or anything. It has nothing to do with Strasburg’s upside, but rather his certainty.

Of course, Ackley has questions of his own, like whether he can really play center field, but presumably if I took him over Strasburg, I would have answered those questions affirmatively.

Strasburg is the right pick. But “utterly shocked” that some people might prefer to play it safe with Ackley? No.

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on Jun 9, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

so

already-injured-first-baseman-that-had-tommy-john-surgery > ace-pitcher-not-yet-injured?

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 9, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not a very good summary of my post

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on Jun 9, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ackley may be a hell of a player now

but just wait until the Mariners try to turn him into a setup man.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 9, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and:

Rec’d for the title.

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on Jun 9, 2009 12:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

2nded

BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jun 9, 2009 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's a root beer draft right though?

don’t get uppity, just because it’s a big day in your life. Whippersnapper.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 9, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curious because the process confuses me

If Strasburg is as good as hyped, how much does waiting till the deadline to sign hurt his arbitration status?

Here’s my train of thought: If he signs immediately, he could be in the majors by the end of the year, starting his clock. If he waits until August 15th to sign, I find it very possible that the Nationals could delay his major league debut until next may, essentially giving them an extra year of control. For the Nationals, there is no way any starts you would get out of him this fall would be worth anything other then a worse draft pick (although there could be an increased ticket sales argument). Also, if I’m the Nationals I have to assume that the year for contention is not going to be 2010, thus wanting me to get the most out of Strasburg at the end of his arbitration, not the beginning. So isn’t it best for the Nationals to delay the signing till the deadline?

From Strasburg’s perspective, I want to be on the field immediately. The sooner I sign, the sooner I make the majors and the sooner I get my first lucrative FA contract (where the real money is). Also, by starting my arb clock as soon as possible, I become a FA sooner, meaning I am a year younger when I hit FA which will up my value at that time and also the likelihood of a better 2nd FA contract.

To make a long post short… is Boras actually benefiting the Nats in the long run by dragging the negotiations out as long as possible?

BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jun 9, 2009 12:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see the issue, to be honest.

Why would Strasburg be in the majors if he signs quickly and Washington wants to wring another year of service out of him? It hardly makes a difference to the front office (and with these wretched Nats in particular) whether they have to stash him in the minors for six weeks or three months this year.

by Zeyes on Jun 9, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if he'll have a callup required as part of his contract

Like Conor Gillaspie last year or Rickie Weeks in 2003.

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on Jun 9, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that occured to me after posting, too.

But short of actually having it written into his contract, I seriously don’t see any reason for the Nats to call him up for any extended time this year (or early next year).

by Zeyes on Jun 9, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's already pitched sonething like 106 innings this year...

so even if they signed him right away and had him pitch in the minors, wouldn’t they take it slow as far as inning count goes, particularly if they intend to bring him up in August.

by cmow on Jun 9, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking more along the lines of

If the guy is as good as he has been hyped, he should probably put up pretty respectable if not spectacular numbers in the low to mid minors. If that would be the case, I think the organization would take a lot of heat from it’s fan base about not putting the best players on the field (Strasburg) when their current rotation only contains one Pitcher with an era under 5. To me it seems pretty plausible that holding a pitcher back till late may 2010 is a lot easier if the guy has only been in your organization for 1-2 months as opposed to 4-7 months. Granted, all this is dependent on him performing at his hyped level, which is no guarantee.

BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jun 9, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the best argument for calling him up this year

Is to sell tickets! I’d expect the Nats to bring him up for a few home starts in Aug/Sep when they’d otherwise be drawing ~10,000 or so fans.

by Brew Angel on Jun 9, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're talking about the "will be struggling to reach .350" Nationals though...

if there’s one team that should be able to resist that possibly-existing vocal minority of their fanbase, it’s them. That said, sure, I think it’s possible that he’ll get a short trial (whether for ticket-selling reasons or just to appease the fanbase) if he performs as expected, but I doubt it’s particularly dependent on whether he signs by July 1st or August 15th. Just have him play out the minors season till early September in AA or AAA, and if he’s really as good as advertised and his IP for the season isn’t too high, you can still bring him up for the last three weeks of the season like any other September callup.

by Zeyes on Jun 9, 2009 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitchers are a bad gamble

In Jack Z’s drafts, he picked

Mike Jones
Mark Rogers
Jeremy Jeffress.

You can blame injuries, but that is part of what makes them so risky.

The hitters that he drafted are

Krynzel
Fielder
Weeks
Braun
LaPorta
Lawrie

The Brewers were drafting high, but only one bust in 6 drafts is a nice track record. I know we need pitchers this year, but I won’t be too disappointed if a position guy is picked in the first round.

by grant76 on Jun 9, 2009 12:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I almost always agree there

pitchers, in general, are a bad gamble. But I’m willing to make exceptions.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jun 9, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think its less important with the 26th pick.

If we were looking at a top 10 pick, it would be imperative that we not miss on a guy. At the end of the first round, when we have 6 picks jammed pretty close together, there aren’t really any sure things there anyway.

by grant76 on Jun 9, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ibanez

Most of the projections that I had seen before the season predicted Ibanez to have a very good year. Not this good, but he was still very undervalued.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jun 9, 2009 2:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Rec the game thread for good luck

This is probably jinxing it, but I rec’d the game thread a half hour before game time for good luck on Friday and Saturday. I didn’t get a chance to do it on Sunday, and they lost. I’m going to the game tonight, and in lieu of tailgating, we are eating at Sobleman’s. Since I won’t be around, somebody wanna rec the game thread for me?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jun 9, 2009 2:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice article on Guzman

He’s been my favorite SS since his days with the Twinkies. It’s nice to see him having some sustained success.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jun 9, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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