Monday's Frosty Mug
by KLSnow on Jul 13, 2009 10:20 AM CDT
in News
30 comments
Some things to read while walking your kangaroo.
While most of the Brewers settled in early for a few days of rest, Trevor Hoffman was making last minute reservations for St. Louis yesterday. Hoffman was a late addition to the NL All Star squad, replacing Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton, who will sit out with an injured toe. Hoffman called the invite "a big surprise" and "a big honor." Hopefully he won't give up a big inning.
If you were thinking of skipping tonight's Home Run Derby, I can't say I blame you. If you're watching, though, there's another reason to cheer for Prince Fielder: The Brewers are taking $1 off the price of loge outfield seats for the August 11-13 Padres series for each home run Fielder hits tonight. And if you need a drink in your hand to enjoy the derby, Chuckie Hacks has a drinking game that will give you a long day at work tomorrow and Home Run Derby has one that almost assures you won't make it to the second round.
Players will tell you that making the All Star Game is "a big honor," but for most it's also an extra paycheck. The Biz of Baseball has a list of players receiving a bonus for playing in the game this season. Ryan Braun is pocketing an extra $50,000 and Prince Fielder is getting $25k. The list was compiled before Trevor Hoffman was added to the team, so I don't know what he's getting.
J.J. Hardy, meanwhile, is just happy to take a break. Hardy has typically been a better hitter in the second half, and if he doesn't turn it around soon this season he'll likely have Alcides Escobar nipping on his heels for playing time down the stretch.
Escobar and Brett Lawrie represented the Brewers well in yesterday's Futures Game. Escobar started the game at shortstop for the World team and went 2-for-4 with a pair of infield singles. Lawrie started at DH for the World (a pretty nice honor for a guy who's never played above Low A) and went 1-for-3 with a seventh inning double that sparked a rally in the seventh inning. Some notes from the game:
- Ryan Fagan of The Sporting News listed Escobar as one of his six "Stars in Waiting" in yesterday's game, and tweeted that Lawrie had one of the most impressive BP sessions.
- Tom H. profiled Escobar, who says he's ready to be called up.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated listed Escobar as one of eight prospects who are "close to untouchable" in trade talks.
Elsewhere in the minors:
- Dave Bush pitched well for the Timber Rattlers on Friday, allowing just four hits and an unearned run while throwing 53 pitches over 4.2 innings. He's still expected to return on July 20, when the Brewers open a series with the Pirates.
- John Sickels of Minor League Ball spent three days last week watching the Rattlers play in Burlington, and has scouting reports on sixteen players, including top ten prospects Brett Lawrie and Lorenzo Cain.
- Wily Peralta and Evan Anundsen checked in at #12 and #22 on Project Prospect's list of the top 25 prospects who didn't make the Top 100. I guess that makes them #112 and #122 overall.
Manny Parra pitched well in his return from Nashville and many are crediting Sounds pitching coach Chris Bosio for helping him turn things around. Maybe there's another explanation, though: Miller Park Drunk tells the tale of Parra's meeting with Billy Ray Cyrus.
Maybe Billy Ray has some time for Chris Narveson, too. Narveson is expected to accept an assignment to Nashville today, when he officially clears waivers.
Mike Cameron is quietly getting hot again, hitting .394/.488/.667 in ten games in July (after posting a .536 OPS in June). Padres GM Kevin Towers says he regrets letting Cameron go after the 2007 season, crediting his leadership abilities. Cameron, along with Braden Looper (option) and Jason Kendall is one of three Brewers who would be Type B free agents if the season ended today. Trevor Hoffman would be a Type A. (h/t Pro Ball NW)
This morning's Mug is going to be late enough, so I'll lump these notes into one group:
- Jayson Stark listed Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun among his candidates for first half NL MVP, Bill Hall among his candidates for LVP, Casey McGehee among his candidates for Rookie of the Year and Ken Macha for manager of the year, but did not select a Brewer for any of those awards.
- Rob Neyer selected Robin Yount as the Brewers' representative in his All Time AL All Star Team.
- The Ghost of Moonlight Graham ranked the Brewers outfield fourth in all of baseball in his midseason rankings.
- The Hardball Times' Dartboard ranked the Brewers #16.
Another homestand, another story about a player scared to stay at the Pfister Hotel. This week, it's Twins OF Carlos Gomez and another unnamed player.
Around baseball:
Angels: Placed Torii Hunter (hip abductor strain) and Vlad Guerrero (calf strain) on the DL.
Astros: Claimed catcher Chris Coste off the DL from the Phillies.
Braves: Acquired Ryan Church from the Mets for Jeff Francoeur and cash.
Cubs: Placed Geovany Soto on the DL with a strained oblique.
D-Backs: Released Tony Clark.
Mariners: Acquired Jack Hannahan from the A's for a minor league pitcher.
Mets: Signed Angel Berroa to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Fired manager Manny Acta and will replace him with Jim Riggleman.
Pirates: Released outfielder Chris Snelling.
Padres: Acquired Sean Gallagher as the PTBNL in the Scott Hairston deal with the A's and signed Russ Adams to a minor league deal.
Reds: Jay Bruce has a broken wrist and will be placed on the DL.
If you're hanging out in St. Louis this week and you're not interested in the Hone Run Derby, perhaps you should be a part of the All Star Treasure Hunt Reebok is putting on. Also, if you're the guy wandering around St. Louis wearing a Tyler Houston Brewers jersey, keep up the good work.
Here's a strategic move to debate: Lou Piniella, who needed a lefty to face two out of three Cardinal batters in last night's game, moved lefty Sean Marshall into left field for one batter, then brought him back to the mound. Good idea? Would you lose your mind if Ken Macha did it with Mitch Stetter? Discuss.
This makes sense in concept, but now a study has proven it: Dr. Ian Byram of Vanderbilt Medical Center says pitchers who come to camp with weakness around their rotator cuff are more likely to get injured during the season.
I'll admit my interest in the Moneyball movie was fading, but they did exactly what they needed to do to bring me back: asked Aaron Sorkin to redraft it. Now I'll go see it. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)
One year ago today, CC Sabathia pitched a complete game, 3-2 victory over the Reds, and hit a home run. For whatever it's worth.
Oh, and if you're going to haul your suitcase on the subway, you should zip up the pocket with your dirty underwear first.
Drink up.
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Isn't it the Padres that received Sean Gallagher?
"Today is."
by juggernaut400 on Jul 13, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup, fixed.
Strangely enough, I had it right the first time, then second guessed and “fixed” it during editing.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 13, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of strange jersey sightings
I went to the T-Rats game on Friday to see Bush pitch. The guy sitting next to me had a Greg Aquino jersey on. So many questions came to mind, but most importantly, who in marketing approved a Greg Aquino jersey, and what the hell prompted this guy to buy and wear it?
by PDUBS1216 on Jul 13, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Family, I guess
There’s no other reason that comes to mind.
by ecocd on Jul 13, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe his last name is Aquino?
If there was a “Snow” who played for the Brewers, I’d probably own his jersey.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 13, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably for the same reason I have a McGehee jersey
I purchased it the day he made the club out of spring training. I looked as silly as that guy did, especially when I was at the game against Dan Haren when he threw his bat. Twice. In the same at bat. But unlike that poor fella, my choice panned out thankfully.
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on Jul 13, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a Darko Milicic Pistons jersey, and I don’t like Darko, the Pistons or the NBA. Never underestimate the decision making process that starts “It’s only $20”.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 13, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did it have a COA?
It could have been game worn, you can still get your very own Aquino game worn jersey for 75 bucks at MP.
by SgtClueLs on Jul 13, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But would they offer arbitration?
I don’t see the Brewers offering arbitration to all four players. There’s a “risk” they’d take it, especially Kendall and maybe Looper. I’d think Hoffman and Cameron would do better in free agency than in arbitration.
Who knows? Maybe the Brewers will try to sign Cameron again if they trade Hardy and/or Fielder in the offseason. We all agree the Brewers have nothing in center field right now and Cameron will probably be one of the best free agents available in center.
by ecocd on Jul 13, 2009 11:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If Kendall is a Type A free agent, I think we have to offer him arb
What are the other options? The offer would be around, what, $4 MM?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jul 13, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Kendall is a Type A
I’ll thank my lucky stars for his amazing second half. :)
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 13, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was in the airport yesterday
and Seth McClung was ahead of me in security about an hour after the game. I was just asking him what he planned for the break when he turned to me and said “shit…. i forgot my cell phone.” pretty funny. he ran back to his car and was sweating with a brewers towel and that was juuuuuust enough to tip people off who he was and was worked over by fans asking him questions.
::Another 95% plus FanGraphs win goes right down the fucking tubes:: Indians fan after Prince's Grand Salami
by Wizzyconsin on Jul 13, 2009 11:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
JJ Hardy
Hardy has typically been a better hitter in the second half, and if he doesn’t turn it around soon this season he’ll likely have Alcides Escobar nipping on his heels for playing time down the stretch.
I hear this from time to time and frankly, I don’t get it. Yes, Hardy is having a bad year, but there should be some regression to the mean and I expect that he will have a good second half.
However, even if he doesn’t, Escobar isn’t exactly tearing it up at AAA and anyone suspecting that Hardy’s job is in danger is probably speaking more from their heart than their head.
While Escobar may be a better defensive SS, Hardy’s defense is also very good and the potential gain is minimal. Someone can crunch the numbers, but remember that Hardy was graded the best defensive SS in the NL last year. I don’t know how his numbers compare this year, but again, I suspect that they are close.
Offensively however, the gap looks to be pretty big.
If Hardy continues to hit like he has this year, that is an OPS of about .680. If he revert back to the form he showed the last two years, that is an OPS of around .800. Let’s split the difference and say that we expect an OPS of .740. I think that is conservative and I would hedge towards the .800 figure, but let’s stick with the lower number of .740 just for argument’s sake.
Currently, Escobar’s numbers translate to .262/.303/.356, which is even below what Hardy is hitting now. Those numbers look to be pretty fair for Escobar when you look at his support numbers, as his BABIP is right about his career average. He hasn’t been very lucky or unlucky.
So, even if Hardy continues to suck, he is still about 25 points (OPS) above what we should expect Escobar to hit. If Hardy rebounds just a little (even if it is under what he has established the last two years), we are talking about a 90 point loss by going from Hardy to Escobar. If Hardy hits like he has the last two years, the OPS drop is about 150 points.
The bottom line IMO is that while Hardy may need to be dealt to deal with organizational surplus (and I hope he isn’t as good fielding SS with .800 OPS do not grow on trees), I don’t think Escobar is an option at the moment for making THIS team better.
Given the terrible starting pitching, they are probably going to need all the offense they can muster to have a chance.
by badgermaniac on Jul 13, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I would much rather let Stetter pitch to him
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jul 13, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
reply fail
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jul 13, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't he a FA next year?
I think this is where the Hardy conversations get a bit funky. If we look forward to next year, we owe a lot of people a lot of money. With Hardy being an elite defensive SS and hits for power, he’s going to want pretty big money. And if we commit to Hardy, Escobars value may go down a bit since he’s organizational surplus.
Moving Hardy to fill a future need seems fair to me, it will both help our fiscal issues (Thanks DM), but will Escobars bat be worse then losing Hardy for hopeful comp picks?
by SgtClueLs on Jul 13, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, he can be a free agent after the 2010 season
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 13, 2009 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
" hear this from time to time and frankly, I don’t get it. Yes, Hardy is having a bad year, but there should be some regression to the mean and I expect that he will have a good second half."
Regression to the mean does not mean compensation-for-the-mean-thusfar. It means a small sample tends to be partially diluted by the large sample. In other words, if he has an overall-career-average second half (as can probably be expected), his overall average for this season will be closer to that average than it is now.
Not-real-numbers warning!
It doesn’t mean that because he’s a career .320 hitter, and he’s hit .300 so far this season that he’ll hit .340 the rest of the way to compensate and give him a .320 line. It means he’ll hit .320 from here on out, making the average for the season at .310.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 13, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's semantics, I know
But I would consider his career averages a good second half.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 13, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is what I said
I didn’t say that he would get his OPS up to the .800 level. I said it was reasonable to expect around an .800 OPS just for the second half (putting him at .750 or something like that for the season overall.
I was comparing what Hardy would do from here on out to what Escobar would do here on out., not what their end of the year numbers would look like.
by badgermaniac on Jul 14, 2009 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stetter (or insert LOOGY here)
I woudn’t have a huge problem with shifting Stetter or a LOOGY to another position for a batter or two if the circumstances were right. I don’t know if I’d use him in left though…our left fielder is sort of vital to our success.
I would think you could pitch a right-handed pull hitter sucessfully enough to try to make him hit it to somewhere other than right field for example.
Back when Kieschnick was with the Brewers I always thought it would have been great if they acquired Ankiel and went a couple of innings with those two shifting between the mound and the outfield. At least it would have been entertaining for those Brewer teams at the time.
by Infield Fly Rule on Jul 13, 2009 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
LOOGY in outfield
I think former Brewer lefty Jessie Orosco did this at least once with the Mets in the 80’s.
by northernbrew on Jul 13, 2009 2:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Chuck Crim did it for the Brewers in the 80's
Moved to first for a batter, then back to pitcher.
by grant76 on Jul 13, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
did he change gloves??
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jul 13, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good question
I’m not even sure, what happened on the next play, but I don’t think it involved Crim.
Off to B-R
With a 6-3 lead against the Jays, Crim loaded the bases while getting one out. Tony Fossas came on to face Nelson Liraiano (Lefty versus switch hitter). Crim moved to 1B.
Fossas gave up a single and Crim came back on to pitch, with Terry Francona taking over at 1B. not sure why Treblehorn though it was a good idea to bring Crim back in after having loaded the bases, but he did get a fly out and striek out to end the game.
by grant76 on Jul 13, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite is Sam McDowell
He was a Cleveland LHP in the 1960’s who made a few All-Star teams. In 1970, he moved to second base in a game while a reliever intentionally walked Frank Howard to load the bases and then got Badger alum Rick Reichardt to ground into a fielder’s choice. The kicker is that Reichardt’s FC was a 5-4 putout, so not only was McDowell a rare lefty second baseman, but he actually made a putout. He then retook the mound and pitched a scoreless ninth. He conceivably could have gotten the win and save, but is only officially credited with the win. box
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 13, 2009 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no wonder Kirbir kinda likes you an' stuff.
that was awesome.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 14, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we having a derby thread?
Imagine the Brewers offense without Ryan & Prince.
-Bill Schroeder
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jul 13, 2009 5:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes we are.
Should open in 7 minutes or so.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 13, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 4:31 PM CST)
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