Manny Parra's Pitch Selection Revisited
Did Manny Parra change his approach in the last start, or did his command just improve?
I'm going to compare Parra's last start to his June 7th start against the Braves, because he only threw 56 pitches in his start against the White Sox before his demotion. I want the pitch trends, and 56 pitches isn't really enough to see what he was doing with his pitch selection.
Maximum fastball velocity:
v Braves: 92.5
v Cardinals: 93.9
Pitch f/x data can be skewed a little bit, so it's possible that Miller Park or Turner Field has a faster camera. His average fastball was almost a mile per hour faster in the most recent start. So maybe it was a mechanical change in AAA that increased his velocity or it was just a little rest.
How about pitch selection? Back in June, I suggested that Parra throw his curveball more and his changeup less-- he had thrown the change almost 20% of the time so far this year, as opposed to about 10% in the past, and his run values allowed with that pitch were quite bad. I said this:
The team has stressed that Manny is throwing his changeup more, but maybe it's time to go back to switching out some changes for curves again. We can only hope that would make the changeup more effective.
So here we'll get to the relevant portion of the data-- pitch selection. First I'll establish the trend I was concerned about. Here's Parra's pitch selection of a line as a four pitch slash-- Fastball, Changeup, Curveball, Slider. He seems to throw a few splitters yet, but they're pretty indistinguishable from the change. If I couldn't determine what a pitch was and it wasn't a split or change, I just left it out. The splitters and changeups are in their own category.
Here's Parra's pitch selection lines from the past two years overall:
2008: 58%/ 17%/ 20%/ 5%
2009: 56%/ 24%/ 14%/ 6%
Pretty easy to see the difference there. Less fastballs, a lot more changeups, and fewer curveballs. And I think he's thrown fewer splitters as well, so we have to add up that 7% increase in changes/splitters to even more changeups than it would appear.
So lets check out these two particular games:
v Atlanta, 6/7/09: 44%/ 30%/ 17%/ 8%
v St. Louis, 7/9/09: 65%/ 10%/ 18%/ 8%
And there it is. More fastballs, better velocity, and far fewer changeups and splitters. I'd imagine those 10% were much more effective because he worked them off of his fastball than if he had thrown almost as many changes as actual fastballs, as he nearly did in Atlanta.
So it's been one start, but in that one Parra did make significant changes that were right in line with what I suggested soon before his demotion using his Fangraphs player page and pitch f/x data to look at his effectiveness and pitch selection. If he sticks with the new approach, there's no reason to think he won't continue to be effective.
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Comments
Wow what timing that was
TheJay and I posted stories at the exact same moment. You can have that one to look forward to soon!
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Jul 16, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great minds...
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 16, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely done
Let’s just hope that it did result in greater effectiveness (ie. causation as opposed to random correlation) and that it was a conscious effort by Parra/Kendall/Castro/whomever.
I have Manny in my fantasy league and I am trying to figure out whether to start him this week. On one hand, he pitched well last outing and the Reds have a poor offense…but Manny is still Manny and that park can be dangerous.
by badgermaniac on Jul 16, 2009 3:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rivera
It was Rivera paired with Parra last time he pitched, and between some familiarity between the two as well as how well Parra (unlike the rest of the pitchers, sadly) did that day, I hope seeing Rivera/Parra together is something we’re going to see more often
by pharom on Jul 16, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is how I know Jordan is wrong
If Kendall called the game in Atlanta, it was called great. Because Kendall calls a great game, you see. And any game he starts is therefore called to maximize the greatness. Manny needed to be more consistent. Or be stronger mentally. Or curve the bill of his hat more. Or have longer pants. Or not look stoned.
But whatever the problem was, it was not the pitch selection. (Shakes fist impotently) Damn kids and your math!
by Getting Yosted on Jul 16, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There might be some truth to that
If for no other reason than Rivera wasn’t schooled on Parra’s “new” change-up emphasis, he may have called a game more natural to Parra. I’m sure he knows him inside and out from their timein the minor leagues together and I could see him lapsing into old habits – which pitch he’s comfortable throwing in which counts, etc.
Kendall, as the regular catcher, would have to follow the manager’s plan or get chewed out and lose playing time or something.
by ecocd on Jul 16, 2009 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
kendall ain't losing playing time....
at least due to not following macha’s pitch plan. I think that’s all kendall.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 17, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not trying to be a jerk here Jihad, but earlier in the year didn’t you also say that Manny should keep the same FB % and not increase it like many had clamored for? I agreed with you at the time based on the numbers, but it looked like he threw a lot more FBs against the cardinals and that really helped his offspeed stuff, as you noted. I could definitely be wrong though…65% Fastballs isn’t much more than his last year’s amount (IIRC 61%).
by marty22 on Jul 16, 2009 5:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's this game yes
What he had been doing was keeping almost the exact same percentage of fastballs while switching the frequency of changeups and curves (10%- 20% in 08 to 20%-10% in 09). In this particular game, he did throw the fastball more often. I’d prefer him to keep it between 55 and 65%. There was a post from a different blog at the time advocating that he throw it more than he did in even this start. I think his ideal selection is something like 60/15/20/5 or something. He was more like 50/25/15/10 before he went down. That’s a pretty drastic change.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Jul 16, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love this article
And I realize small sample size and all of that, but can the handedness of the opposing lineups been part of why more chaneups were thrown?
by KDean75 on Jul 17, 2009 8:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Both teams started two lefty position players in the game
It’s possible, but the Braves didn’t start any more righties than the Cards did.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Jul 17, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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