Reds 5, Brewers 3

by TheJay on Jul 19, 2009 3:16 PM CDT

W: Dave Weathers (2-2)
L: Seth McClung (3-3)
S: Francisco Cordero (22)

MVP: Prince Fielder (+.299)
LVP: Seth McClung (-.222)

Win Expectancy Graph
SB Nation Coverage

Today's game started off sluggishly with the first three innings taking nearly 90 minutes. In that time the Reds jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first on a Brandon Phillips single. The Brewers scored a run on a JJ Hardy fielder's choice groundout in the second and tacked on two more on Prince Fielder's bomb in the 3rd. The Reds came back and tied it in the bottom of the third and that's where things sat for the next five innings.

In the bottom of the eighth Seth McClung came out for a second inning of work. Five pitches later, it was 5-3 on a Chris Dickerson single and Jonny Gomes home run. McClung finished the inning with no further damage but the Kendall-Catalanotto-Counsell triad in the top of the ninth couldn't get to Francisco Cordero. The Brewers settle for a split in the Queen City and head to Pittsburgh for a three-game series starting tomorrow.

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It's going to get hard to stay in the division hunt if they keep giving away winnable ballgames like that...

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 19, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions

Playoffs seem pretty unlikely

Figuring that it will take 91 wins (20 games over .500), the most likely path to there would be to go 30-12 between the break and the end of August (easy schedule), and split the games against the tougher teams in September.

Starting at 2-2 isn’t the way to accomplish that.

I’m just afraid Melvin will pull off a trade deadline coup that will cost the Brewers Gamel and Escobar, for a division race that we still would be unlikely to win.

by DukeMarkell on Jul 19, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions

I could be wrong...

… but I don’t see anyone in this division winning 91 games this year, so while I can see why you’re drawing that conclusion, I’m not sure the assumption on which you’re basing it is accurate.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 19, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Projecting win totals

To an extent you are right. Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Astros all project to 84-88 wins. I suppose it’s possible that the race stays this tight and they all end up the season within 4 games of each other. I think it’s more likely that some team breaks away, and I think, based on the uninspiring performance of the Brewers for 7 weeks running, that they are the least likely of the four teams to break out.

That said, the next two weeks are going to be interesting. The Cardinals play 13 games against teams that are currently over .500. The Cubs play 10 games against teams with winning records. The Astros play 10 (all of them against the Cardinals and Cubs). The Brewers play only teams with losing records, including series with the two worst teams in the league, the Nationals and Padres.

If the Brewers aren’t in first in two weeks, they won’t ever be.

by DukeMarkell on Jul 19, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions

If the team goes 9-2 the rest of the way in July, they are right in the hunt and should be buying like mad at the deadline. The further they slip from that, the further they slip from being buyers. But unless someone is hot and heavy for Looper, Hall or Cameron they shouldn’t be selling anything no matter how bad they suck between now and the deadline.

by Getting Yosted on Jul 19, 2009 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions

OT:

RT: BJRains: Arizona traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers after the game today.

....my quick smells like french toast...

by mstreeter06 on Jul 19, 2009 4:56 PM CDT reply actions

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	23	19	.547	0	Won 1
Cincinnati Red Reporter	22	19	.536	0.5	Won 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	20	22	.476	3	Won 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	19	23	.452	4	Won 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	17	25	.404	6	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	27	.357	8	Lost 7