Other pitchers that we might look at
by JayzTazay on Jul 23, 2009 9:48 AM CDT
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In Haudricourts article in the JS this morning he mentions Royals pitcher Brian Bannister as another trade option. Another intriguing arm that might be available is Aaron Harang, as the Reds are fading fast. A's pitcher Justin Duchscherer is another name thats been mentioned, but hes still on the IR so is an unknown commodity. Bannister and Duchscherer are stud pitchers and Harang is a true workhorse who would really save the bullpen. With the Braves playing well it looks like Vasquez is no longer available. Anyone else of note you guys have thought of?
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Well...
Harang would be a salary dump for the Reds, and they probably want at least something in return. He is having a Hart/Hardy type of year, and with that contract has a negative value right now. The only way a fair deal for him works, is if the Reds take on half of his salary next year, half of what is left this year and then the Brewers give up a guy like Salome, Lawrie or Parra. The Reds wont take on that much of his salary, and would probably be very reluctant to trade him within the division. Harang has variable values depending on how much the Reds would take on of his salary.
And Bannister is a lot like Parra in that although a little more expensive, has a few years of control left in him. He has a bit more value than Parra at this stage (using Sky Kalkman’s TVC) I would put it at $19.5 million. And the Royals probably dont simply want to swap Parra for him straight up (there would probably have to be a throw in as well (someone down in the 20-30 range of Brewer prospects), so that means they would probably want prospects straight up to deal him. So to get Bannister you are probably talking about Salome or Lawrie and also Cain as well as a guy like Scarpetta.
I wouldnt touch Duchscherer given the unknowns about him. In both cases listed above, youve got to wonder if giving up prospects is worth these two players. Bannister maybe, but definitely not Harang. And again, does picking up either of these guys put the Brewers in the playoffs this year. Both players probably add 2 wins. THT Dartboard and Pecota both have the Brewers in the 80-82/83 win area, add in Lopez thats 3 more wins, does that get the division?
2+2+3=7
as is, I’m sure we’d finish less than 7 back. so, yeah…duh. if they’re really worth that many wins in a half season, you pull the trigger.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 23, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Im confused.
Are you advocating getting both Harang and Bannister? That’d be a lot of prospects to ship out in the last 2 years.
could be my fault
Last sentence in original post says 2 wins each for Bannister and Harang and then I said 3 for Lopez, when what I meant was Lopez + one of those pitchers gets you 3 more wins…
All 3?
Lopez +1
Lee +2
Harang +2 maybe
Bannister +2
So if you add all of these players you can get to 7, but Lopez and one of those guys doesnt get you there. Probably have to win 88 to win the division
Seriously?
You say that Harang is a salary dump, but he’s going to add 2 wins in less than half a season? Believe it or not, you’re wrong on both accounts. He’s been worth 2 WAR so far this year, and with similar production MAY add another 1-1.5 WAR the rest of the way. He’s got a sub-4.00 FIP and over 3 (!!!) K/BB. Either way, he’s is no salary dump. If traded he’s signed through 2010 for $12MM with a mutual $14MM option for 2011 (2.5MM buyout). It would take prospects and there would not be much if any salary eaten by Cinci.
Either Harang or Bannisterr would be good pickups, but they’ll both be expensive (one in prospects, the other in prospects and cash).
Also, Lopez, again with similar production projects to about 1.5 WAR for the rest of the season. The only problem is that he’s not replacing replacement-level play. He’s replacing Casey McGehee and Craig Counsell, who have combined for over 3 WAR already. So realistically, he should add some value but not as much as you might think.
Lopez
Is Lopez also replacing Bill E. Hall? I’d think the plan would be to start Lopez at second most of the time, and have the less gimpy option of Counsell and McGehee play third.
You know, Hall’s career OPS is still a respectable .759, even though is season OPS is only .605. I had kind of forgotten how good his career year was.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Yeah, I forgot about that.
But it’s not as though his presence will affect Hall’s at-bats THAT much. Hall’s still going to be on the roster and getting occasional start and PH at-bats like he is doing now. It will definitely help Lopez’s impact, I just don’t know how much
Benefit of the doubt
Giving Harang, Bannister and Lopez an extra win or half win is not out of the realm of possibility. Either way it doesnt drastically reduce or add to the trade values calculated.
Take a look at the Kalkman tool. Harang has negative value unless you start to subtract salary amounts that the Brewers would have to pay. I would call that a salary dump. Sure he has value, but the Reds want the salary off of the books, and anyone willing to go after him will be on the hook for at least $10 million dollars, and thats with no relief from the Reds.
Let's trade them Hall for Harang straight up
If anyone has an inflated perspective of Bill Hall it has to be the Reds.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Jul 23, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
They'll prob pick up...
the remainder of Harang’s contract too.
I am unfamiliar with the Kalkman tool...
Two questions:
1) where can i find it?
2) does it take a pitchers W/L record into account? All of his peripheral stats are very good, and according to WAR he’s been worth almost $9MM already this year. I can’t seem to figure how he could possibly have negative value.
I just spent like 25 minutes searching....
for anything about Sky Kalkman’s TVC and found nothing. Please link me, I’d like to know more
The numbers im getting back from TVC...
are way different from yours.
1) How are you getting your WAR number for the remainder of 09?
2) Are you remembering to prorate the remainder of 09’s salary?
3) How are you determining your future WAR values?
4) What did you use for A/B status?
I did this:
1) extrapolated out his WAR thus far this year and subtracted his current WAR
2) I did it on a per game basis which leaves $4.5MM for 09
3) I used a 4/3/2 weighted 3 year WAR average and accounted for a 5% regression.
4) Type B
It brought me to a total value of $37.7MM including the $2.5MM value for Type B for 2009-2011, while his total contract is for $31MM giving a TVC net value of +$6.7MM.
I also believe that this may be a little low, as 08 was an extreme outlier as it was the first season since 2004 where he’s even been below 4 WAR, and this year he is paced for ~3.5 WAR. Using a 4 year 5/3/2/1 weighted average the TVC net value jumps to $8.4MM. Also, since Elias Rankings are based on the past 2 years, He would likely have a good chance to jump to Type A status which is worth an extra $2.5MM over Type B***
Are you talking about for Harang?
I did not save the spreadsheet (did it at work) can be easily recreated. For future WAR I used the projections from PECOTA. Dont remember exactly what I put in for WAR remaining, but when I tried making Harang at a positive value, I was reducing the salary amount (Reds payi8ng a portion) and also listing him as Type A. I’ll have to take a look at it again tomorrow. I’ll copy and paste it.
yeah, im talking about Harang
I’d appreciate that. I used a 3 year weighted average because that is what Dave Cameron uses to find expected WAR for the monetary value of 1 WAR. Once you post yours up, i’ll double check mine and see if there’s something I messed up on.
As far as him being a salary dump though, I have a really hard time thinking of a ~3.5 WAR pitcher as being a salary dump, when the value of 1 WAR ~ $4.5M each of the last 2 years and he’ll be making about $30MM over the next 2 years. At a minimum, he’d have to contribute about 6.5 WAR to provide value equal his contract.
I will put it up tomorrow
You make a good case about WAR and salary due, but I think for the Reds, they would love to have his salary off of the books.
No Alterations....
Aaron Harang
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $3.7 1.0 $4.7 $1.0 $3.7
2010 $12.5 1.6 $7.6 -$4.9 $12.5
2011 $12.8 1.3 $6.3 -$6.5 $12.8
FA Picks $5.0
Total $29.0 3.9 $23.6 -$5.4
If Reds pick up half of salary, and buy out last year
Aaron Harang
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $1.8 1.0 $4.7 $2.9 $1.8
2010 $6.3 1.6 $7.6 $1.4 $6.3
2011 $2.0 1.3 $6.3 $4.3 $2.0
FA Picks $5.0
Total $10.1 3.9 $23.6 $13.5
If Reds pick up half, and you excerise option
Aaron Harang
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M)
2009 $1.8 1.0 $4.7 $2.9 $1.8
2010 $6.3 1.6 $7.6 $1.4 $6.3
2011 $12.8 1.3 $6.3 -$6.5 $12.8
FA Picks $5.0
Total $20.8 3.9 $23.6 $2.8
Type A
In all cases I considered Harang a Type a Free Agent, and the WAR numbers I used had 1 remaining for the year, figuring the change to a more pitcher friendly ball park with 2 months is at least one year. And for the projections for year 2 and 3 considers a big discount, seeing as how if he only gets 3 WAR this year that would be a 30% discount from his projections. Probably could have gone … with Reds picking up half of first 2 years and excersing option in year 3….
Aaron Harang
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M)
2009 $1.8 1.0 $4.7 $2.9 $1.8
2010 $6.3 1.8 $8.5 $2.3 $6.3
2011 $12.8 1.6 $7.6 -$5.2 $12.8
FA Picks $5.0
Total $20.8 4.4 $25.8 $5.0
I don't know what you're using but I don't see why you would project Harang for 1, 1.6, and 1.3 WAR the next three years
I’d go 1.5, 3, 3.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
He has
2 as of right now, for 1/3 left of the season 1 is generous.
According to Pecota, he has underperformed by about 30%, I just plugged that number into their projections for the next two years. You could put in the 2.6 and 2.3 numbers and it raises it a little but not a ton.
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