Selling High on Manny Parra (with poll)
by roguejim on Jul 23, 2009 2:06 PM CDT
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PrintIn all of the hullabaloo over Roy Halladay (and now Cliff Lee), there has been a lot of grumbling recently about how foolhardy it would be to trade Manny Parra. I'm not so sure. In fact, if I may be contrary to a contrarian, I'm wondering if we're nearing Parra's peak value right now.
As Rambling Al pointed out, Parra is incredibly valuable in the majors right now: even if he only posted league-average stats, the fact that he doesn't even reach arbitration until 2011 makes him a tremendous value. (For an easy comparison, think of another trade with the Blue Jays, the one that netted us Dave Bush: four years of Dave Bush has given us about a 4.5-4.6 ERA, but only cost us a total of about $7 million --- about 1/6th of what we're paying Jeff Suppan for roughly the same stats.) If you can get a league-average starter for peanuts, you're doing extremely well.
Here's the thing: I don't think Manny Parra WILL ever put it together. I think he's going to go his whole career with one solid performance against a good team, followed by not making it out of the third inning against the Padres. Or, as Rage of Jared puts it:
Start after start goes by without a consistently good base, and yet we still believe in you after one of those "pretty good" performances where you show what it takes to be in the big leagues. Then you come out with 2 more crappy starts just to piss us off..like today. WHO GIVES UP 10 EARNED RUNS TO A MARLINS TIME WITH LESS FANS IN THE STANDS THEN THE MILWAUKEE IRON ON A SUNDAY AFTERNOON? And the Iron don't even have Gravedigger Gilbert as a coach to draw in fans like the Bonecrushers. Unforgiveable.
It's nice to have home-grown talent on your major-league club, especially one who has overcome major injuries in the minors (did I mention the injuries?). And if we end up keeping him, the Brewers will benefit, as the money we're not spending on Parra can be spent elsewhere, like a centerfielder after Cameron leaves.
However...what if you can do more than that? Certainly Doug Melvin can sell the usefulness of someone like Parra to a team like the Blue Jays --- after all, if you're playing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, you need to make every penny count. (You could argue that the Jays need Parra more than the Brewers need Halladay.) But, let's say you hype Parra's stuff, calling him a #1/#2 starter in the making. Tell them that, like a lot of left-handers, Parra just needed a little more time to figure things out. Point to his first two starts since coming back to the majors (13 IP, 1 ER) as indicative of where his future lies. (Note: Parra has home starts against the Braves and Nationals coming up before the trading deadline, making a nice run of 4 straight pre-deadline starts certainly possible.)
Frankly, I think we probably shouldn't make any trade that involves Gamel or Escobar. Our team is getting expensive fast, and we desperately need to start replacing our JJ Hardys with our Alcides Escobars. However, if I don't think Parra will ever reach his "ace potential," which I don't, I'd be very interested in some Parralchemy. What if Parra were valuable enough to be paired up with JJ Hardy instead of Escobar, plus your lower-echelon prospects, to land a top-flight starter? He's pitching well enough now, and going up against two teams that were below .500 as late as last week, that maybe you could sell a narrative of how Manny Parra is the next big thing.
One last item on Manny Parra. Consider this quote:
In the past the hard-throwing lefty has been prone to the big inning. His talent has never been in doubt, but his confidence wavered. He would give up a couple of hits, or walk a batter on a pitch that he felt was in the zone and the frustration would get to him.
It was easy to read in [his] body language that he had lost his focus. When that happened his mechanics broke down and his arm dragged behind his body, creating pitches that were up in the zone, a spot that a pitcher cannot miss in the big leagues....
The ERA may not seem all that impressive, but the fact that he has been able to keep his composure long enough to keep his team in the game is what is impressive.
While [he] has stuff that arguable make him a potential front of the rotation starter, his mind has kept him from achieving anything more than being a number five, or a long man in the bullpen. With his talent, and the way that he has been throwing, having him in the fifth spot in the rotation is a very good thing.
Although you certainly know better, doesn't this sound like a perfect encapsulation of Manny Parra? Of course it's not --- this is a review of our good buddy Jorge De La Rosa from earlier this month. In the 4 seasons since leaving Milwaukee, JDLR has posted ERAs of 5.18, 5.82, 4.92, and 4.95.
Do you have any reason to think Parra will fare better than JDLR (another tall young lefty)? I sure don't. I certainly wouldn't give Parra away, but if another teams thinks it can turn lead into gold, I certainly wouldn't stand in their way.
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That would be nice
I think he’ll stay a #4/#5 guy, which is plenty valuable when you’re making about the league minimum. Frankly, I’m surprised he’s been able to stay this healthy.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
He will eventually become a #1 or 2 starter
Ok, I admit it, I have a lot of faith in Manny Parra. I firmly believe that one day he will become an ace, but that won’t be for at least another 3 seasons. What is the risk of holding onto him when he doesn’t have a high salary? He is a pitcher with a lot of potential signed into a long term contract not costing the Crew a lot of money. If we trade or sign an average pitcher with a 4.5 ERA which Parra can and will do, he will cost the team up to $6 million or so (see Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper). For guys like Looper and Suppan, what you see is what you get. They are veterans, but they have no upside. Parra has his good moments as well as his bad moments, just as every pitcher does. Yes, Parra struggled badly this season. Perhaps it was because when Kendall caught for him, only 60% of his pitches were fastballs, so batters could wait for his offspeed pitches he is best known for. With Rivera catching the last 2 games, 80% of his pitches are fastballs, and you have seen the results. Parra went from awful to ace like performances in 2 straight games. Will he keep this up for the rest of the season? Probably not. However, we can all see his command is getting better.
Oh, I agree
Well, to a point. There’s virtually no risk to keeping him: he’s cheap, and he could blossom into something special.
I’d say, though, that every positive thing you could say about him is also a selling point to another team. If you think that he’s actually Jorge De La Rosa in disguise, you might be inclined to trade him before everyone else figures that out.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I don't think he's reached his peak yet
he’s damned good when he’s on. it’s just a matter of finding that “on” switch. I don’t know if he’ll ever be an ace, but in the long term I see him as a #2 on an average or below-average team or a #3 on a solid team.
in any case...
i don’t think other teams “value” him enough, so we won’t be selling high yet.
I think we can flip him for more prospects than we can get out of him for an ace on other teams. If we have to give up him and Gamel or Escobar, that’s too much. One of those 3 plus a lesser farmstock or two should be enough.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 23, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
It's funny
In doing a little digging while writing this, people’s opinions on him are all over the board. Ace in training, or just one of many pitchers with talent who couldn’t put it all together.
I don’t really expect him to be traded for the reason you said, that other teams don’t value him enough. (Kind of like how underappreciated Doug Davis and Dave Bush were in their tenures with us - not so much because they were teh awesome, but because they were teh cheap. And a little bit awesome.)
Besides, I only wrote this to get under Jordan’s skin. Don’t tell him. :)
There is one thing - we HAVE to trade Hardy, IMHIHOP (in my humble International House of Pancakes). After Gamel and Escobar, I don’t see any major-league-ready talent on the horizon, which means if we’re going to keep our salaries under control, we have to get Gamel and Escobar in the lineup. I think Toronto has a need for a shortstop; if that’s true, then (as valuable as Parra is), I would have no qualms of packaging him and Hardy up to kill two birds with one stone.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Can we just have 5 pitchers and not group them into imaginary positions?
Manny Parra is an above-average starting pitcher with really good stuff.
I like how Rambling Al sees all his value now after 2 good starts when he was about ready to trade him for Tony Graffanino back before he was sent to the minors.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Unfortunately
yes, we must group them into imaginary positions. :) At least for my poll.
When I was writing this, I was thinking, “you know, I don’t think Jordan is going to like this one very much.” :)
I would say, “Manny Parra is a below-average starting pitcher with really good stuff.” Whether or not he can turn that really good stuff into above-average performance remains to be seen. I’m fine with him finding out as a Brewer, though if someone else sees him as a diamond in the rough, and is willing to reward us appropriately, I think the Brewers would ultimately be better off trading him.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Well if we define those categories maybe...
A 1 starter is with a true-talent for ERA (FIP tRA or whatever) lower than 3.50, a 2 starter is between 3.50 and 4.25, a 3 starter is 4.25 to 4.5, 4 is 4.5 to 4.75, and 5 is 4.75-5.25. I’d say Parra’s talent is around 4.25 to 4.50 right now, his FIP is already down to 4.5 after those two good outings; it was over 5 before.
Throwing in factors like parks, league, and defense just skew the ERAs so much it seems. I’ll take JDLR, who’s been putting up FIPs and tRAs in the very low 4s since he’s been with the Rockies.
Parra’s overall performance last year was above the league average starting pitcher, even in terms of ERA. I don’t think his overall ERA this season will get there, but I don’t think it’s fair to call him below average at this point.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Well
With those definitions in mind, I think Parra is about a #4 starter then. Better than this season’s ERA, of course, and better than his career ERA. If he can get it down to 4.25 or below, then he’s a steal, and we’d probably regret trading him. But I don’t think he’s got it in him, Rocky.
Last season..well, if he were pitching this year like he did last year, I guess we wouldn’t be having this conversation. If he can whittle his ERA down to under 5, then I might change my mind. For now, though, “above-average stuff and below-average performance” fits him so well, IMHIHOP. I’ll be happy to eat my words, though, especially if his resurgence sparks a run into the playoffs.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
This is where I'm saying
he’s already put up a year better than the 4 starter range, and this year all his stats except his runs allowed suggest a similar amount of runs allowed. I’d bank on him being a 4.25 guy from here on out, with potential to improve.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Hmpf.
I’m not quite sure where your love for Manny Parra is coming from. His “better than the 4 starter range” was a 4.39 ERA/1.54 WHIP (i.e., marginally better than a 4 starter), and this season his ERA is well north of 6, WHIP of 1.75, BAA of .290. I’m not being critical of you, I just have no idea why you’re expecting this huge turnaround - or why you’re expecting him to outperform last season, when so far he’s been much much worse.
I like the “all his stats except runs allowed…” line. You know, if it weren’t for those runs allowed, he’d be pretty good. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I don't think that first line of stats is marginally better than a fourth starter, first of all
I’m going to maintain that the first part of this season was a mix of some control issues (a lot of pitchers have them, even Gallardo), terrible luck, and poor pitch selection (whether that was his fault, management’s, or Kendall’s I don’t know). I’m to the point where I rarely judge a pitcher based on their ERA. It’s an extremely flawed statistic that takes into account many things that are outside of the pitcher’s control. An independent metric like a mix of tRA and FIP gives you a much better total look at the pitcher’s ability because you’re matching up the skills that over a large body of innings matches up to that amount of runs allowed. Parra’s skills in the past and future indicate that he should be evaluated as a pitcher who gives up 4.25-4.5 or so runs per 9 innings. I’m far less concerned with a fluctuation over part of a season because the skills that suggested that level of talent or still there. This is where people don’t follow me sometimes, say if Parra had started K’ing 4 per 9, walking 6, while giving up more flyballs and line drives, i would have said he is a worthless pile of crap like Rambling Al did. The only difference in his controllable stats was that the walks shot up a bit.
I guess it’s possible that Parra has an inquantifiable ability to give up more runs than his stats and skills would indicate, but there are only a few pitchers in baseball history who have done that over the course of their careers. It’s a rarity. They almost always match up.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Actually, I can agree with most of this
Though I’m still fond of ERA, despite its flaws (such as the efficacy of the pitcher to come after you), because for the most part, its failings balance out over the course of a season, two seasons, a career. He hasn’t shown to be particularly adept at keeping runners off base (last year’s WHIP of 1.54, though better than 1.75 in 2009, is still pretty high), and that’s in line with his poor ERA.
I guess that’s my question: more than ERA (again, which isn’t perfect), his WHIP has at best been so-so, and at worst, well, you see what it is right now. If his high WHIPs are due to terrible luck, then we’re talking about 3 years of terrible luck, and he’s getting unluckier with each passing season. (Which may be the case: I don’t know THAT much about BABIP, but his BABIP of .330+ seems high when he was “good,” and .350+ in 2009 seems disastrous. Is three years of bad BABIPs just luck that hasn’t yet regressed to the mean, or is there somethign more to it than that? How common is that?)
Of the three items you mention as the source of his first half woes (control issues, bad luck, and poor pitch placement), two of them ultimately fall on his shoulders, what to pitch and where to pitch it.
In any event, I think it’s safe to say that if we were GMs of our own MLB teams, I’d be happy to trade Parra to you, and you’d be happy to trade for him. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Also evaluating pitchers (esp JDLR) only on their ERA is probably not the best way to check out there total value
JDLR has a lot of value these days. They definitely sold low on him, and it’s too bad they didn’t have any more room.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
No, that's true about ERA
Although writing this post took a long time, so I wasn’t going to delve too much into it.
I wouldn’t say a LOT of value, per se: he’s not as cheap as I would have expected ($2 million for 2009). But he gives you a decent chance to win, and isn’t killing you financially, so yeah, he’s worthwhile.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
so what could we expect?
What if Parra were valuable enough to be paired up with JJ Hardy instead of Escobar, plus your lower-echelon prospects, to land a top-flight starter?
What kind of player could we expect for this trade?
Zeus, I like him very much.
But he no help me hit curveball.
Parra + Hardy
If Parra is worth about $16mm and Hardy favorably worth $10m, then pairing them together gets you a top notch starter. The tricky part about that kind of trade is that it would have to be done with a larger market type team that is “selling”. This because you only get Hardy for 1.3 years and will have to pay him in excess of $5 million next year.
Teams like the Royals (Bannister) probably pass on a deal like that. The Mariners and Jack Z might bite on that type of deal, but neither Bedard nor Washburn is worth that package, so they would have to part with a prettty decent prospect. I dont think the Jays would take that deal because they will want the longer term control, as well as upside potential of Escobar or Gamel.
That deal probably works with the Indians for Lee and they might even throw in a nice prospect (C level pitcher)to even it out. But then your problem is that in the 2 games you gain from adding Lee, you lose 1 from dealing Hardy.
I think Hardy might be tough to trade, actually
I wonder what will happen there.
I was at tonight’s game. Parra didn’t do much to convince me he’s an ace in waiting. His line probably looks a lot better than he actually pitched, and his line isn’t that good.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Goodness were we all there?
He did look like crap last night. Did anyone else notice that he was all hunched over going into his delivery last night?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
FWIW
I have to think he’s putting a lot of pressure on himself.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I was in 102 making in pretty much impossible to tell what exact pitches he was throwing
But there were an awful lot of 83, 84, 85s. Much more than what it seemed like he was throwing in the past few starts. I have no idea why Rivera can’t catch Parra, especially after those two successful starts.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_07_24_atlmlb_milmlb_1&mode=gameday
If you wanna check out his pitch selection. A lot of 2-seam fastballs in the mid 80’s like you mentioned. The 3 run homer was a 81mph 2-seamer. His curve looked ok until the 4th, after the he couldn’t get it over for a strike, same with the slider.
Ha I know that I definitely am your BCB pitch f/x analyst
the pitch f/x algorithm for pitch ID is sketchy at best. I doubt all those were two-seamers. It has a tough time differentiating sliders, changes, and splitters.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I've Been Wondering...
The same thing…why Rivera isn’t paired with him…esp since his usual battery mate (Bush) has been out of the rotation.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 25, 2009 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions
The biggest drawback
Is that a player like Bush or Parra (Parra so far, not the could-be-awesome Parra of the future) isn’t regarded as well because he’s not going to bring fans to the stands, not like a Halladay or Cliffly would.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Not sure...
That would be a problem for Milwaukee…at least not right now. Attendance is up 5.8% from last year. I’d say that’s pretty good when attendance is down 5% for MLB as a whole.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 23, 2009 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, right
No, I meant for a would-be trade target. Right now, Parra has more practical value than attendance-boosting value.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Oh,ok
Wasn’t sure if that was the point you were getting at. I agree. If the Jays/Indians do trade their respective pitchers, they will probably take attendance hits…heck…I’m sure the Pirates will take a hit for trading LaRoche…I was listening to the game yesterday…sounded like he was pretty popular there.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 23, 2009 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Uh...
…. isn’t Parra exactly the kind of guy a team that has to watch its payroll should want to keep around? Maybe he doesn’t ever meet the #1 or #2 potential he has, but he’s still a lefty we can control for 5 years and whose salary is going to be remarkably less than his actual value for 3 of those years. Barring injury (which I don’t think looks any more likely for him at this point than it does for most pitchers), he’s likely to be a #3 or #4 for most of the time he’s under our control and you’d have to pay millions to get that kind of pitcher on the free agent market. If we had a series of pitching prospects at AAA or AA dealing Parra would make a lot more sense. As things stand now, however, the Brewers are probably going to have to shell out some cash or trade position players for starters in 2011 just to fill out the rotation as there appears to be little hope that the farm system will provide the necessary arms. Keeping Parra lets you fill a second slot in the rotation out of the system (along with Gallardo) and gives the team some financial flexibility to use on position players.
If you think dealing Parra (and a package of prospects) for Lee or Halladay puts us in the series (I don’t), then that’s an argument. Absent that, dealing Parra doesn’t make any sense to me.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 23, 2009 8:41 PM CDT reply actions
All of that is true
And really, I think it’s pretty unlikely that the Brewers will trade him.
All of the points you mentioned are true, but, it’s as true for the Brewers as it is for any other team in baseball. All of those reasons contribute to Parra’s actual value, and he would be a valuable addition to any club for it.
I thought this was interesting to look at because his value seems to be in a state of flux. One person might see his stats and say “big deal, he’s Jorge De La Rosa” (or Dana Eveland, who, like Parra, struggled this year with Oakland after a pretty good 2008). Someone else might look and say, “his numbers aren’t bad, but I like him because he’s cheap, and will be for several years.” A third guy might look and say “hey, he’s an ace in the making.”
That Parra has a lot of value to the organization goes without saying. However, if Parra has 2 more good starts against the Braves and Gnats, maybe Melvin will be able to not only hype up his actual value (cheap and young), but also his perceived value as the ace-in-the-making. If he were to do that, I’d be all for trading him. It’s just my opinion, but I don’t think Parra will ever be the #1 or #2 starter that some people envision. If we can trade him (or anyone, really) for more than he’s worth, heck, go for it.
One interesting thing: Moustache has labeled Gamel and Escobar as untouchable, but not Parra.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Go ahead and trade him
But I want value back for him. And I want to be on top of the trade. None of this “we both win” crap. That goes for any player on the 40 man roster and in the system.
Doug Melvin is (and should be) willing to trade any player regardless of what he says to the media. If JP Riccardi comes to Melvin and offers Halladay & Cash for Escobar & a bucket of seeds – you better believe that DM would take it. It all depends on the perceived and measurable value of the commodities involved.
If Mike Maddux thinks that he can shrink Parra’s head enough to help Texas this year and convinces Texas to give up a bag of prospects — do you think DM should pass on it…
We are and always will be a small market team. Therefore, we are and always will be in rebuilding mode and looking at the future crop of young cheap studs.
If someone significantly overvalues anyone in our org more than our org values them and is willing to give us the moon – (think Richie Sexson) – pull that trigger.
by Saberilliterate on Jul 24, 2009 8:17 AM CDT reply actions
Right
It’s a little different for Parra, in that he is already young and cheap. It’s the “stud” part that I’m wondering about. I’ll concede he has above-average stuff; however, I don’t think he’ll ever figure out hot to control it, and use it consistently. If another team thinks they can, and is willing to compensate us for it, then I’m with you - Melvin can pull the trigger.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
the De Rosa comparison is a good one
…great stuff, beautiful curve, walks too many guys. Jamey Wright was another tease, long ago. I think Parra has more upside though and question whether trading a guy who is two starts from the bush leagues would constitute selling high.
Two issues
There are really two issues here.
1. What will Parra develop into? Those predictions are all over the board. If you look at his player comps at the same age, one of them is Randy Johnson. Others are guys like our old favorite Angel Miranda. Reasonable minds can disagree.
2. There is no way that you would be “selling high” on him. I don’t see any way that terms fits a guy with Manny’s profile. Selling high is when a guy gets off to a hot start, stays healthy for the first time in his career, does not have an ERA that is artificially high based on some bad luck, or things of that nature. I don’t see how Manny would even remotely fit.
My own perspective is that teams like the Brewers have to gamble once in a while. They have to maybe take a risk on a Turnbow or a Davis or a Podsednik and hope they really blossome into an upside player. Just the chance that Parra could develop into a #2 is a good reason to hang onto them. We don’t have the $$$ to go pick one up like the Yanks or Cubs.
I suppose that's true
Still…I think other teams can be convinced that he’ll be a future #1/#2 starter, especially if he pitches well against the Braves and Gnats. As useful as Parra is now to the Brewers, I’d gladly trade our Angel Miranda to a team who thinks he’s a Randy Johnson in the making.
All that being said, I agree with Jordan - JDLR was undervalued when we let him go.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Guys who pitch their way off the roster are typically undervalued
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
2:04pm: MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick passes on comments Dodgers GM Ned Colletti made this morning on KABC Radio. Colletti says the Jays want two or three current Dodgers, including a young pitcher, or five or six prospects.
I dunno about you guys, but Hardy/Parra for Halladay sounds pretty good to me.
I don't think it'll be enough
But it’s a starting point.
I’m also a little concerned as to whom we’re going to trade Hardy (assuming we do, which we should). There can’t be many teams looking for a shortstop.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
The Jays are
They get a starting lefty and a shortstop for 1.5 years. Probably need another 1-2 prospects, maybe Heether and someone else.
Good call
I hate to lose Heether (I hope people enjoy how arbitrary I am with our prospects - Heether = good, Parra = bad), but if his positions are 3rd, SS, and left, well, he’s pretty much blocked. He’d be a good guy to include in a trade.
I say we include Bill Hall and call it a Halla-day. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
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