What does the Matt Holliday trade mean for the Brewers?
by KLSnow on Jul 24, 2009 12:56 PM CDT
in News
64 comments
If you haven't heard, the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday from the A's today for three prospects, including third baseman Brett Wallace, widely considered one of baseball's best prospects.
Obviously, this isn't good news for the rest of the NL Central, at least for 2009. The Cardinals are already 1.5 games up on the field in the division (and 2.5 up on the Brewers), and just added a major impact bat without weakening any other part of their current roster. Assuming Holliday plays like he did on the road in the NL (negating the Coors Field effect), he projects to be a .281/.351/.450 hitter for the Cardinals the rest of the way, a major improvement over the likes of Chris Duncan and Nick Stavinoha, who have been patrolling the outfield for the Cardinals much of the season.
On top of that, adding Holliday could actually significantly help Albert Pujols. Having an All Star caliber bat behind Pujols could force a lot more opposing pitchers to pitch to him instead of around him. Pujols is already, without question, the NL's most dangerous hitter, and this trade could actually improve his production down the stretch.
Simply put, the Cardinals are going for it this season. They've now shipped their #1 prospect and two other C+ prospects (as rated by John Sickels) for what could turn out to be a 2+ month rental of Holliday, plus Chris Perez (a B+ prospect) and a PTBNL already sent to the Indians for Mark DeRosa. The Cardinals are in a great position to win the NL Central and make a run in the playoffs in 2009, but getting there is costing them a significant chunk of their future.
So where does this leave the Brewers?
Well, for 2009, things don't look so good. The team is already on a bit of a downturn, and comes into play today just a game over .500 and behind three teams in the Central. Baseball Prospectus gave them a roughly 13% shot at the playoffs as of this morning, before the Holliday deal.
With that said, it's possible they could consider a counter-move. They're rumored to be players in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, and had a scout watch Cliff Lee this week. If they think a move can get them the division title, they have the bargaining chips available to make one: Alcides Escobar, Manny Parra and J.J. Hardy are probably the most valuable commodities that could be put on the table. With that said, one or more of those three players is likely just the starting point in a blockbuster deal, and any move involving these three would seriously dampen the Brewers' hopes of contention down the road.
If the price for a counter-move is too steep, or the risk of making a move and falling short anyway is too great, the Brewers could stand pat. They're likely only a couple of weeks away from having Dave Bush back and their entire rotation intact again, and they could ride this team as far as Yovani Gallardo, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun will carry them. Even without making a move, this team is on pace for roughly 85-87 wins and a 12-15% shot at the playoffs, a respectable finish, would return nearly all of their nucleus to give it another shot in 2010, and would also hang on to all of their top prospects, giving them an opportunity to continue to compete for the forseeable future.
Finally, in what might be the least likely option, the Brewers could sell. A year and a half of J.J. Hardy could be worth significant prospects or young pitching to someone in need of a shortstop. Mike Cameron is a free agent after the season and could plug a hole for someone in center field. A bullpen arm or two, including free agent-to-be Trevor Hoffman, could net a couple of mid to low-level prospects. The Brewers could auction off a few spare parts to strengthen their hopes for the future and still probably finish the season somewhere between 78-82 wins, which would be a disappointment overall but not a disaster.
So what do you think? Where do the Brewers go from here?
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What "spare parts" do we have, just for full disclosure?
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 12:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade Hardy, Hall, Hart, Hoffman, McClung, Cameron, Counsell, and Kendall for sure, and any of the other pitchers except for Gallardo, if you can.
Then make a run for it in 2012.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 1:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hall and Kendall won't get us anything in a trade.
Nor would Counsell, probably. McClung would get very little. The only one that would net us a good package would be Hardy, in my opinion.
:) + Suppan = :'(
by NoahJ on Jul 24, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s getting harder and harder to tell the sarcasm from the crazy. July 31st can’t get here fast enough.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 24, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don’t see next years Brewers being any more competitive than this years Brewers (if anything, i think they’ll be worse off). So why not go for it this year?
Obviously others beliefs on the 2010 brewers are more optimistic than mine.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My belief in the 2010 Brewers is pretty optimistic.
With a full season of Gamel and Weeks and virtually everything else returning in tact, I think it might be a 90-win team.
With that said, the 2010 Cardinals look a little worse everyday, and I don’t really expect the 2010 Cubs to make major improvements. The NL Central, which isn’t really very good this year, could be worse next year.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 24, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the Cardinals & Cubs are better at filling holes than the Brewers are.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What a difference a few weeks makes (Rickie pun not intended)
When this team was riding high, hitting stride, and had a wide margin of victory, we weren’t freaking out. It happens, streaks happen. The starting pitching is iffy, the offense is wildly variable, but when this team is on it’s on and it’s crazy that a few weeks have made so many forget that.
I would rather stand pat or see what kind of #2/#3 starter may be available for one of the SS and a minor addition. It feels so crazy to just shit on a team that was doing great (right up until Rickie went down), and there’s no reason to think this mid-season slump means the team can’t start out 2010 the way we opened up (after the 4-9 start and until around the first series against the Twins). Centerfield may be the only glaring worry next year. I’d also like to see what Dillard can do in the majors?
Who knows, but being pessimistic as a fan just doesn’t seem like something I feel like making a habit out of right now
by pharom on Jul 24, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And note I said they won't be any more competitive than this years team. Not in any way trying to suggest that this years team isn't competitive.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, that makes sense
And it does all seem to focus on which Weeks we get back, so that’s kinda up in the air right about now. As long as it’s not a crippling move for a high price piece I’d say go for it as well… even if it means you’re looking at only a solid middle of the line guy, but hopefully for a season and a half or more. If Parra can keep it down, Gallardo stays as he is, this could be good stuff for years to come
by pharom on Jul 24, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, sorry.
I’ve just seen pretty much all of those names thrown around as players we should trade and it is definitely getting harder to tell if people are being serious about it.
:) + Suppan = :'(
by NoahJ on Jul 24, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good Read, KL
At this point, I think we need to stand pat. If we stand pat and still can muster 85 – 87 wins as KL suggests, I could live with that. Since St. Louis is depleting their farm, we can look to next year to make a run.
Haven’t thought much about selling until I read this post. I think it’s too early to give up on the season, but wow. If we can’t sign Cameron and Hoffman this offseason maybe we need to think about moving them. Save Hardy for a possible trade next year.
"I’ll give him a badge and he can be my deputy." -Sheriff Melvin appoints Deputy Braun
by spell on Jul 24, 2009 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Stand pat, until the very end of the month, and if no improvement occurs deal Hoffman and Cameron. The Angels, Yankees White Sox could all use a CF and the Tigers, Rangers, Phillies and Dodgers could use bullpen help, as could the Angels.
Just curious, how do the Brewers get to 85-87 wins? All of the projections put the Brewers at 80 to 82 wins. Their Pythagorean values all are that of a sub .500 team. I think the addition of Lee, Halladay or Bannister gets them there. But it will probably take at least 88 wins to get the division.
Also, with the push to the playoffs last year, the goal this year shouldnt be to “just make it” the next step is to win a series, and even with a big pitching addition that would be a tough one to complete.
by backtocali on Jul 24, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just curious, how do the Brewers get to 85-87 wins?
They’re a game over .500 now, about to get Dave Bush back, seem to have Manny Parra straightened out and have figured out their second base-leadoff hitter situation.
So, if you assume them at 82 wins now (which is what they’re on pace for, based on a 48-47 record), and put Bush, Parra and Lopez on top of that, you get my projection.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 24, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get ya
So youre counting on a win from Lopez (I am too) and one each from Parra and Bush. Makes sense.
If you give one to Hardy and Hart as well that would give you 87 for sure. Seeing as how each has underperformed this year (even worse than I had projected, as everyone can attest to must be pretty bad).
If all of those things happen and they add a pitcher, more than Washburn but in the line of Lee/Bannister it wins the division. Anything less probably ends up short.
by backtocali on Jul 24, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How come there isn’t a wait another week option?
If the Crew goes 5-2 or 6-1 over this next homestand they are very much in the hunt with the August opponents they have. But they need to show that they are ready to make a move now for the team to land a big name.
Even if they don’t get hot until August 1st they still have time to add a decent piece, and I think the sales you mention other Hardy will clear waivers if the team falls apart in the next three weeks.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 24, 2009 1:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to the 24 hour news cycle
Where we treat every day like it’s the last one ever and every decision like it must be made now. :-)
Also, if they waited a week, it’d be July 31. If the Brewers are going to make a deal either way, they can’t just start working the phones two hours before the deadline. Negotiations take time, and the front office has to be continually re-evaluating their position so they can lay groundwork now for moves they might make next week.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 24, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
July 31rst is a big day for Wisconsin fans
who are waiting for news on decisions about roster moves =(
by pharom on Jul 24, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand this stuff takes time
He can work the phones to get the outlines of deals in place, but that doesn’t mean he has to follow thru. How many GMs are serious about acquiring Halladay, and how many of them are stroking JP to either drive the price up or show the fans they are serious? How many of the strokers feel bad about what they’re doing?
Every GM will get into trade discussions they are 99% sure are going nowhere, just in case someone proposes something stupid. It’s not like Melvin will drive people to never deal with him again by being coy for the next week while putting outlines in place. The only increased risk you run is giving more time for someone to outbid you. When you offset that against the gain in certainty of where the Crew is, its not that bad of a deal.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 24, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that a reason to make a move now?
The NL Central is gunna be bad next year so lets just wait and be an average team next year to. The Cubs make one or two moves and they’re right back to being the favorites to win the division again. If we pick up Halladay, maybe we overpay a bit, but we’re contenders this year, favorites next year. And a huge salary dump after that, we have room to make a few moves.
Does anyone really think 2011 isn’t going to be a rebuilding year? Chances are we’ll lose everyone from Hall, Suppan, Hardy, Looper, Prince, Cameron, Kendall, Counsell. Basically most of the team. Not only that, but if we aren’t contenders by the second half of next year, I doubt Prince plays a full season for the brewers. And if this year is any indication, he pretty much keeps the ship afloat.
I’m not advocating selling the whole farm system, but I am saying that while we have a fair amount of talent, we should be buyers rather then sellers. Unless you always want to be an average team. Halladay makes this team a playoff contender.
by Metagen on Jul 24, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's where you ran off the rails:
Does anyone really think 2011 isn’t going to be a rebuilding year? Chances are we’ll lose everyone from Hall, Suppan, Hardy, Looper, Prince, Cameron, Kendall, Counsell. Basically most of the team.
I don’t think anyone expects Hall and Suppan to be a big loss. Hardy is replaced by Escobar. Fielder is actually under team control through 2011 (one more year of arby after his contract is up).
Even if everyone you mentioned left and the Brewers got nothing in return for them, they’d still have Gallardo, Braun, Gamel and Escobar, among others. So they’re not losing “basically most of the team.” In fact, their two most valuable assets will be here for quite some time.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 24, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So we're counting our future playoff hopes on two major league players.
And two rookies. Sorry, that doesn’t make a playoff team.
by Metagen on Jul 24, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so sure you can project the 2011 roster with any accuracy at this point.
But you’re right, those pieces are probably going to be gone. Only 2 or 3 of them is a big loss, however.
Kendall & Hall are basically already gone, and Suppan/Looper aren’t irreplaceable parts (neither is hardy, for that matter)
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and you're lamenting the loss
of a guy who can’t hit .200 (Hall), a group of guys that will be nearly 40 years old by 2011, and the loss of a player who won’t actually be lost (fielder).
by Cervercero on Jul 24, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does the $59 mil in salary count for anything?
How about the prospects the team will get for Prince and Hardy? Because this can’t be said enough, Melvin is not keeping either of them all the way to FA.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 24, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was kind of the point..
I don’t expect Prince to be in a Brewers uniform past next year.. Our farm system will be fine based on the amount of players we’re losing.
by Metagen on Jul 24, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i say the crew should sell
build for 2011 and 2012, when escobar, gamel, yo, and parra (hopefully) are nearing their peak, we still have braun, and fielder (in ‘11 for sure). i would think you could get something for cameron and hardy for sure. also, hoffman would get something and what about looper? i realize that leaves a hole for 2010, but would it be worth it, i don’t know. also, if you could get someone to bite on a deal that would send hall with one of those guys in exchange for a little less than a deal w/o hall, that would be tremendous… some of those deals – cameron and hoffman – wouldn’t make the team any worse next year than they might be anyway considering they are both FAs. i don’t know, i certainly wouldn’t mind a power throwing prospect in the minors not named omar…
by CSchuh on Jul 24, 2009 2:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just wondering
Since in your post, we just traded Cameron, Hardy, Hoffman, and Looper, and apparently Hall? Who exactly is left to play on this years brewers? Who are only 2.5 games behind btw.
by Metagen on Jul 24, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they should do a minor move but nothing drastic in either direction
like a Hardy for Washburn & parts type deal.
by warwick5s on Jul 24, 2009 2:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna get Washburn+ for Hardy. Maybe straight up.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy should be traded now.
If hardy is traded, mcgehee can play 2b, cc can play ss, and lopez can play 3b.
by BoldandBrash on Jul 24, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I'm not so sure Lopez can play 3rd.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lopez has played..
95 games at 3rd during his career. It’s the weakest of his 3 positions.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 24, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Proof that Halladay won't be a Brewer:
“Colletti says the Jays want two or three current Dodgers, including a young pitcher, or five or six prospects.”
Good luck with that.
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 2:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I heard that Halladay's price is so steep
that the Jays might have to wait to trade him in the offseason or next year.
by BoldandBrash on Jul 24, 2009 2:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They don't HAVE to wait to trade him, they could lower his price!
by Mykenk on Jul 24, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
true
i think that if Halladay isn’t dealt this year, his price will go down
by BoldandBrash on Jul 24, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As it should.
Regardless of who the pitcher is, having him for one season isn’t worth as much as having him for 1.5 seasons.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by KLSnow on Jul 24, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the key line of the whole post
Even without making a move, this team is on pace for roughly 85-87 wins and a 12-15% shot at the playoffs, a respectable finish, would return nearly all of their nucleus to give it another shot in 2010, and would also hang on to all of their top prospects, giving them an opportunity to continue to compete for the forseeable future.
by Cervercero on Jul 24, 2009 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you guys should trade Hardy for Washburn and Balentein.
You got slurved!
Hehehe Mark Reynolds is so awesome.
by Slurvey on Jul 24, 2009 3:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I say give them the week
if the post 5 or 6 wins, the have the deal in place. Otherwise stand pat and call it a day.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Jul 24, 2009 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wrote same article on my blog
At 10 this morning I wrote the same post on my blog about this situation. What I think it means, is the Brewers should not make a move. We should trust our current guys to try to turn it around. Even if we get Halladay I don’t think he wins us enough games to hold off the Cardinals, Cubs, and Astros. I think it may have been good they did this move because even with the rental of Cliff Lee or Halladay we may not of made playoffs. But read my blog’s post too
2cnb.blogspot.com
by Brendosweenz on Jul 24, 2009 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We're screwed
Imagine the Brewers offense without Ryan & Prince.
-Bill Schroeder
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jul 24, 2009 4:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
At 2.5 games back I think we stand pat
For the next 5 days or so to see what shakes out. I actually think they are in a position to be buyers and sellers, I’m selling on J.J. and possibly buying an inexpensive #2/3 starter to help solidify the rotation. I think Hardy is the one player they can afford to trade now without a significant drop off overall in the replacement coming in. I also love the fact that this would give Escobar a chance to adjust to the majors so he’s not coming into 2010 spring training cold turkey as the starting SS. The only reservation I hold regarding this would be some organizations perceived value of Hardy due to his poor numbers so far this season.
Now hypothetically, I would try to flip Hardy for a young CF blocked in another organization. This gives the Crew someone to plug into CF next year if Cain isn’t ready and also allows for Cameron to become more expendable. Ideally Cameron + prospect could then be flipped for that 2/3 starter the team could use. I highly doubt any scenario like this will unfold, but I’m just pretending to be GM for a day…hell, I’m sure I couldn’t do worse than Minaya and whoever the hell is running the Nats these days.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Jul 24, 2009 4:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Melky Melky Melky! :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Jul 25, 2009 12:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I wonder about
Has anyone been talking about the possibility of Chris Carpenter tiring by the end of the season. Dude hasn’t thrown much in the past two years.
Then again, the same thing will probably effect Yoga
by drezdn on Jul 24, 2009 8:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sell & Trade
Kendall is highly overrated, Suppan and Hall are extremely overpaid. JJ Hardy and Corey Hart are valuable trade options as well. They all need to go, whether by selling them or getting prospects. The 7 figures we pay them don’t equivalate to the lack of performance they provide on the field, and if we sold any of them, that is new money for the Brewers to bring in a “quality” free agent after this season. Also, a couple weeks of being in a bad streak? We have been in a bad streak since Rickie Weeks went on the DL, that was over a month ago. The only reason we are still “somewhat” in contention was because the Cubs and Cards were also cold. If you haven’t noticed, now they and the Astros are getting hot, while the Brewers are still faltering. As the past few seasons indicated, the Brewers are not a good 2nd half season team. i would much rather sacrifice 30 seasons for 1 World Series then to make it into the playoffs every season for those 30 years never winning the gold. A playoff appearance means virtually nothing unless you have the gold to back it up. If we are to ever win the World Series, i guarantee you we won’t be having .220 batting average hitters on our team, well, maybe 1 at the most (not including pitchers). However, if Corey Hart goes, we will need someone to step up and replace him. I’m hoping Matt Gamel can learn the outfield position for next year. Again, i’m hoping, and yes, for next year.
by Jabooty on Jul 25, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hardy's Value
How much can you expect to get for J.J. Hardy, with an avg of .227 and a slugging percentage of .373? He’s not exactly tearing it up… I wouldn’t think Washburn is a realistic hope.
by CCK on Jul 26, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.24.2009 at 10:32 AM CST)
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