Rumorville: Jarrod Washburn
by Metagen on Jul 26, 2009 10:54 PM CDT
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PrintLots of rumors floating around after the game tonight, I was wondering what people smarter then me would trade for Jarrod Washburn.
Rumors started up when in Ken Macha's post-game he sounded optimistic when talking about Melvin looking for a starting pitcher. Tim Dillard still hasn't been named the starting pitcher for Tuesday's game, especially since Mike Burns pitched today which rules him out for a Tuesday start. Coincidentally Washburn's next start is also Tuesday, leaving til Monday afternoon to get a deal done, if thats what they're looking for.
Additionally, Tom H reported tonight that he "knows for a fact" the brewers are discussing Washburn and are hoping they can sign him after the seasons over since he is a wisconsin native.
Also, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times said earlier "I'm starting to doubt he'll take the mound on Tuesday night in a Seattle uniform," Baker writes. "A big reason why is that things are happening in Milwaukee and some decisions will have to be made in short order."
Clearly shortstop is the main target for the Jays, J.J Hardy comes to mind first but I'm sure the Jays would prefer Escobar since he would be available for much longer. I'm sure either way the brewers would want something else as Washburn's contract is up after this season. Maybe a almost major league ready pitching prospect for Escobar and Washburn? I'm not all that familiar with the M's farm system. Or Jack Z maybe goes for a few lower level prospects since it is in fact only a two month lease.
Discuss.
Update: Brewers pulled Escobar out of a AAA game today. His team was getting blown out, but the Nashville squad waited all the way until the seventh inning to yank him.
Brandon Morrow has also been mentioned in trade rumors from the Mariners
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M's prospects
The cupboard is pretty bare in the M’s’s farm system after the awful Bedard trade, but there are a few guys worth talking about. Brandon Morrow fits your description of a near-MLB ready starter. He has been misused and is working on transitioning to a starter after being mostly a reliever the past couple years, but is still young and has electric stuff.
Jeff Clement is a catcher who can really hit, but maybe can’t actually catch. He’s getting a bit old for a prospect.
Wladimir Balentien is a power hitting OF who has pretty much worn out his welcome in Seattle, and probably shouldn’t be considered much more than a throw-in (perhaps in a Hardy deal).
Greg Halman is a bit younger than those guys, a 5 tool outfielder who strikes out way too much and is still in AA.
I think it would be hard for the Mariners to put together a package for Escobar, but Morrow and Washburn would be the best bet.
yearning for Henry Cotto's moustache...
I read that Seattle offered Morrow and Washburn, unknown as to what they asked for.
Honestly wouldn’t mind Escobar for that, we need potential starting pitching next year. We’ll have to deal with our SS situation later. I like Escobar, I’m sure he’ll be good, but starters are something our farm system doesn’t have, and it takes care of our missing #2 pitcher this year.
That said, with Jack Z’s knowledge of the farm system I’m sure he can find pieces to his liking not named Escobar or Gamel. Also a few people talking about Branyon as another piece off the bench, hopefully Z will be willing to take on the baggage that is Billy Hall for a bit of money.
"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis
Hardy for Washburn is ideal
I feel as if Hardy, while a good player, isn’t needed for the team anymore with Escobar in AAA and for all practical purposes ready. The bigger reason you get rid of Hardy and not Escobar though is if you wish to have any chance at resigning Prince (which i believe becomes more and more a possibility this offseason with the way he’s carried the team this year) you need to keep a cheaper player like Escobar to compensate for the increase of salary to Prince.
I feel that with this franchise its fairly simple that we cannot pay the money for an established 2 or 1 plain and simple. I do believe though that we can sign a Washburn (or acquire him this year) for $8-$10 million because he wants to player here and while he won’t keep his <3.00 ERA he can be a good 3 in a rotation.
If we take a chance on going after a Duscherer (who will be a tad cheaper than his peers talent wise due to his injury problem) in the offseason who when healthy has the stuff to be a 2 we can have a very formidable starting 5 in Gallardo, Duscherer, Washburn, Parra, and Suppan with Bush subbing for Suppan after he leaves after 2010.
Thoughts?
Ring Out Ahoya!
by bleedbluegold03 on Jul 27, 2009 12:44 AM CDT reply actions
I just don't see them trading Hardy mid-season.
With Escobar not having all that much major league experience. What if he gets called up and hits .200? Then we’re really screwed. Hardy’s a big crowd favorite, it’ll be interesting.
I’m all for improving the starting pitching for next year. I was really surprised they didn’t improve things more this offseason.
"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis
Hardy’s a big crowd favorite
Only with <22 y/o girls…
by Saberilliterate on Jul 27, 2009 5:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed...
>22 y/o girls are usually Braun/Hart fans….
I’m sure Escobar could improve on JJ’s dreadful .298 OBP….even Kendall is doing better than that.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 27, 2009 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I see them trading Hardy mid-season
“What if he gets called up and hits .200? Then we’re really screwed. "
Because Hardy is lighting it up at .230? I think if that’s the case, Escobar’s speed will make up for the .030 in BA. He might actually beat out a bobbled grounder once in a while…
I agree 100%
If JJ Hardy is traded for Washburn, that helps increase either resigning Prince Fielder or Washburn into a longer contract. I would also throw Bill Hall along with him just get eliminate his payroll, Seattle might just accept that.
How....?
How does that help? How do you think the team can afford to pay Fielder the (at least) $15-$20mil per year that he’s going to command upon reaching free agency? Even with Hardy gone? And do you realize how badly that would handcuff the payroll if they did?…barring some miracle like a money tree springing up in right field?
And why on earth would they accept Bill Hall as a ‘throw-in’? Maybe if we pay at least half his salary, but if you’re going to do that you might as well keep him. He’ll be a FA before Fielder is anyway, so even if there ever were a possibility, it wouldn’t matter if Hall was around or not.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 27, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Hardy = Washburn
According to the Kalkman Trade Value Calculator, JJ Hardy is worht anywhere from $5.8 to $7.3 million. This range assumes 1 WAR for the rest of the year and anywhere from 2.5 to 3 WAR next year. One other factor is Hardy being a Type A or Type B Free Agent at the end of Arbitration.
Washburn is worth just under $6 million, but that value increases to rirght around what Hardy is worht if the Mariners pick up half of the salary this year.
What a turn of events for Hardy’s value. If he were traded in the offseason, he probably could have netted a very good #2 starting pitcher for the Brewers. 4 mohths later they are going to maybe get an average #3 and a prospect. Hardy has been very unlucky this year, but his power has dropped a lot as has his OBP. Maybe the M’s throw in a ok (graded C by John Sickels) prospect to account for that drop in luck.
That isn't remotely true.
Those win values are too low for Hardy. Per fangraphs, he was worth 4.5 wins in ‘07 and 4.9 wins in ’08. ZiPS ROS projections (which include and properly weigh this year’s data) still have him as a league average hitter. A league average hitter who can play SS with a +10 run glove is nearly a 4 WAR player.
Using the same tool you did, I’ve got the remainder of Hardy’s arb years worth a net of $18.7 mil, assuming a true talent level of 3.7 WAR (that’s conservative if anything), and a salary of $6 mil next year (there’s no reason to use the 40/60/80 model when we already know his first two arb results and know that his numbers will not justify anything other than a standard raise in his last year of arb). I also made the conservative assumption that he’ll wind up as a type B rather than type A (mlbtraderumors still has him estimated as a type A right now).
I’ve got the partial season of Washburn worth an absolute maximum of $5.3 mil, making two extremely generous assumptions: 1) He will continue to pitch significantly better than his career 4.03 ERA and be worth the same 1.5 wins Hardy will for the rest of the year. 2) You can get him to decline arbitration next year and collect a sandwich pick for him as a type B.
If I make some equally reasonable pessimistic assumptions, Washburn has negative trade value. 1) He pitches like a 2 WAR player the rest of this season (which is still better than his previous 3 years). 2) He accepts arbitration (because he’ll never get anything like $12 mil on the open market and he will in arbitration. 3) He pitches like a 2 WAR player again next year. 4) No arbitration offer after next season again (no way they get burned twice), so no comp picks…total value -$2.9 mil.
Hardy ought to fetch, at an absolute minimum, more than 3 times what Washburn currently could in trade.
two big ifs
Giving Hardy 3.7 WAR for next year is a huge leap. He will maybe worth 2 by seasons end this year, so you have to account for some decline in your assumptions going forward for him. Giving him 1 WAR for the rest of the year is generous. Pecota projects him at 4.6 for both this year and next. So if you generously give him back 95% of what he has lost this year from projections and account for the salary issues, sure you can get to that $18.7. Your WAR projection for him is anything but conservative, I would call it extremely generous. You also make a big leap in saying that he avoids arbitration.
I am not saying you are completely out in left field, but Hardys value is extremely reduced from what it was last year, and your estimation is out there.
3.7 WAR is 80% of that PECOTA projection, not 95%
I would argue that that’s a pretty huge discount based on a crappy half season.
Do you really think that Hardy is a lousy hitter? Because even if he’s just average, it’s easy to get him to 3.7 wins. He gets 10 runs for his glove, 21 for replacement level, and 7 for positional adjustment. Even giving him 0 batting runs, that’s 38 runs, or roughly 3.7 wins, above replacement.
In order to get him to less than 3.7 wins, I would need to assume he will continue to hit much more like he has so far this year than he did for the previous two years. I don’t see any reason anybody should.
Alternatively, I’d need to assume that UZR totally misses on him and he isn’t legitimately 10 runs better than an average SS defensively over the course of a season.
I never said he’d avoid arbitration, I just said that whether he settles or the arbitrator decides, $6 million is a lot more reasonable estimate for what he’ll make next year than 80% of his free market value. I don’t see how anybody can think he’ll get $13 mil in arbitration, which is what 80% of the true value for a 3.7 WAR player gives. How much more than $6 mil do you think Hardy will make next year?
LD
I think his Line Drive % decrease is a big sign to be wary of.
I believe that his defensive numbers are largely a function of defensive positioning than ability. Now I have not accounted for this issue. He has a solid glove and arm, but if hes not in the right spot at the right time, he is substandard as a shortstop.
I just think that him getting to a 3.7 WAR is a huge leap of faith. I think he is a lot closer to a 3 WAR player.
I will have to take your word for it on the market value for him. Does this assume the numbers you input? Where can I find that market value number?
I was a bit clumsy with my phrasing there...
I meant for it to be more clear that I was only talking about the best way to use Kalkman’s tool for a player like Hardy. I think we can do a lot better job estimating next year’s salary than just letting it pay him 80% of the value it computes for him based on the WAR estimate you provide. If I make Hardy a 3 WAR player, as you suggest, the tool tells me he’ll be paid $11.1 mil next year if I use it as directed.
That’s obviously much too high, so what i did instead is to estimate his salary for next year based on his actual salary this year and last year. I used those as the inputs in the 40/60/80 model instead of using the marginal market value of his WAR figures. That gave a range of $5.3-6.2 mil. I picked $6 mil because it is a round number.
Good defensive players at difficult positions are really screwed by the arbitration process, since arbitrators still reward triple crown stats more than anything else. Prince is making 3x what Hardy made in his first arb-eligible year, even though he came off a season where he had significantly less value than Hardy had in ’07. Hardy will be lucky to make what Prince made this year in his final arb-elibible year next year.
I have no idea what Hardy’s actual market value will be when he’s a FA. Too much uncertainty in the interim (his performance, the economy, trends in player valuation, etc.).
I also cannot replicate your results ($5.8-7.3 mil), even using the WAR figures you cited in the original post. The minimum I can come up with is $7.7 mil @ 2.5 WAR. What salary figures did you use?
I really agree with Dave over at USS Mariner....
Washburn helps Milwaukee a lot more than he helps the M’s. If they’re not going to give up Escobar or Gamel in a bid for one of the Cy Young arms, this is their best fallback plan. And, as we talked about recently, they have depth at SS – the big glaring weakness in the M’s organization. It all fits.
However, don’t count on Hardy coming back for Washburn in a one for one deal (that would just be a horrible move for the Brewers), and don’t expect Alcides Escobar to be coming to Seattle at all. If the Brewers were willing to move Escobar, they’d go get Halladay or Lee, because he’s good enough to headline a package for one of those two. The only reason the Brewers would settle for Washburn is because they were dead set on retaining Escobar. If he’s actually available (and Melvin insists that he’s not), they’ve got bigger fish to fry.
He speculates that Carlos V might be a guy the Seattle would want.
Escobar
I think it is wise for the Brewers to hold onto Escobar over Hardy.
But if the Phillies/Jays trades that have been discussed and rejected by both sides are any indication, the Jays would probably want Escobar, Gamel and a prospect the Brewers dont have to get Halladay. Same goes for Lee.
Why do people want Washburn?
He’s 34 and is essentially Suppan. This year is clearly an aberration in terms of performance. If we don’t get Morrow out of this deal, we’re buying extremely high on Washburn.
Plus...
Type B compensation….draft picks :) Probably the only reason Z would keep him in Seattle.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 27, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
He's
A Boras client….he won’t accept arbitration ;)
by TheBurningRom on Jul 27, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, we'd have him for this year.
But just because he has been good this year, doesn’t indicate that he’ll be any better that he’s been over the last 5 years of his career for the rest of the season.
The single supplemental pick between the 2nd and 3rd round that we would maybe get is not really worth all that much. The fact of the matter is that JJ is WAY more valuable than Jarrod Washburn going forward.
What about...
Escobar for Washburn and CF Ezequiel Carrera (.322/.441/.407, 17 steals) in AA for the M’s
"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis
I'd Pass...
On Carrera…we have enough OFs in our system….certainly ones that are better than he is. His career numbers aren’t so great, and he’s been kicking around the minors for 4 years…only making it to AA this year.
by TheBurningRom on Jul 27, 2009 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Ouch
Yeah Escobar is a little better than their best prospect right now, but couldnt land King Felix.
There are a couple of players in their system that I wouldnt mind seeing the Brewers get their hands on. Michael Saunders is one, but he is probably untouchable, Greg Halman is another. Morrow would be a very nice pick up for the Brewers as well. I wouldnt mind them taking a flyer on Jeff Clement to be the catcher next year either.
Right, they wouldn't
But I don’t see any other chip the Mariners possess capable of getting Escobar
by Graham MacAree on Jul 27, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Is that a Jar Jar reference?
And there’s no way the Mariners part with Felix unless they are getting a farm system in return
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
in addition to a farm system
I think they would also want an actual farm. So the Brewers are in good shape.
Coffey is surprisingly fast, as is the Polish Sausage
Victor Wang
That valuation comes courtesy of Victor Wang of The Hardball Times. He did a big study of what various prospects are worth. Batting prospects in the 10 to 25 range are worth $25.1 million dollars in a prospect trade.
Thanks Graham
Washburn is From Wisconsin!, so Brewer fans really like to overvalue him.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Washburn
Remember late last year when Seattle was seen as foolish for yanking Washburn off waivers when the Twins wanted him because they wanted more for him than just saving his then-too-high salary for the rest of ’08 and ’09?
Neat how half a season changes things. Too bad Jeff Suppan didn’t post a sub-3.00 ERA. Probably was just as likely.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Pretty much so.
All in all, this seems simply to be the twice-annual “Bring Washburn home to Wisconsin” rumour, edition #9 or so, recent good performance notwithstanding. I’d be surprised if it ends any other way than the previous iterations…
A day late and a dollar short
The Brewers aren’t buyers anymore; getting Washburn for half a season doesn’t help them much. They’d have to get something more valuable back in return, but I have a hard time accepting that Morrow is either available or cheap. Hardy and some lower level prospects for Washburn and Morrow sounds too good to be true. The Mariners will trade Washburn, but not to the Crew. Lots of playoff teams have been scouting Washburn lately and will be willing to pay more for his services.
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