How it might have gone: The interviews for today's starting assignment
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 28, 2009 11:50 AM CDT
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PrintI don't have clubhouse access at Miller Park (and after writing this, I'll probably never get it), so for now we'll have to settle for this imaginary job interview with Ken Macha (KM), Carlos Villanueva (CV) and Tim Dillard (TD).
KM: Gentlemen, thanks for coming today. As you know, we need a starting pitcher for tomorrow night's contest and I've decided to wait until the last minute to announce one. A starting pitcher's job is an important one, mainly because he's responsible for getting outs. Tim, can you get outs?
TD: Well, I haven't been given a chance to do it at the major league level in 2009, but I've been recording a lot of outs in Nashville. I've already recorded 118 innings in AAA and posted a 3.66 ERA. In my last start I retired 24 batters on 65 pitches.
KM: Those are insignificant outs. Carlos?
CV: I'm having trouble with outs lately. I've given up 18 hits and five walks (.463 OBP) to the last 49 batters I've faced, and a lot of those non-outs are being hit for extra bases, as my 1.310 OPS against might suggest. I've allowed an earned run or more in four of my last five appearances, but after recording just two outs in three previous games, I've recorded 12 in my last two.
KM: Our bullpen is exhausted because our starters can't seem to remain effective past the fourth inning. Carlos, how many innings can you give me?
CV: I haven't pitched more than three innings in a game since July 4 of last season, and haven't thrown more than 56 pitches in an appearance since throwing 83 last May, in a game where I allowed five earned runs in four innings. On top of that, I pitched an inning in relief on Friday, so I'd be going on three days rest. I can maybe go three innings.
TD: I pitched eight innings on Wednesday, and have gone six innings or more in eight of my last ten starts in Nashville. I've gone eight innings in three of my last six starts. I can go at least 5-6 innings and save the bullpen a bit.
KM: (mumbles something about preferring track records of major league mediocrity over unproven minor leaguers.) Tim, can you do an impression?
TD does his Ed Sedar impression.
CV: I've been doing a 2003 Luis Vizcaino impression all year. Didn't you notice?
KM: Ok, this has gone on long enough. Carlos, you've been less effective lately, your arm is less stretched out and your impression was clearly inferior, so I'm going to have to give you the job.
TD and CV: What!?
KM wanders off to tell the media...
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Is Josh Willingham starring in Act 2?
If so, I am less than eager to see this play. :)
Suppan, who has seen his ERA rise from 4.12 in his final year in St. Louis to 4.62 in 2007 and 4.96 last year, isn't an option in fantasy leagues - Rotoworld
MyKenk's Reasons why Carlos Villenueva will dominate tonight.
He’s only good in a role other than the one in which he started the year.
Sample Size: 2008.
Koolaid?
Does whoever starts really matter?
They both need to go 4 innings tomorrow.
"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis
Dillard is terrible.
44 K/42 BB in AAA.
Don’t tell me about how he’s getting outs and that it doesn’t matter how he does it. You can’t pitch like that in AAA and expect any sort of significant production in the majors. He doesn’t miss bats (6.8% Swinging Strikes), and he’s giving up a lot of line drives (19%)
He has a 77 tRA+. In AAA. He won’t be a productive pitcher here.
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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
tRA+ is like ERA+ or OPS+
It’s just (lgAvgtRA/playertRA)
Or, in words, his tRA is 77% as good as the league average.
---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
also
http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html
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http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
This is the second time I've seen Dillard thrown off as ineffective based on one stat: strikeouts.
Obviously, strikeouts are important, but are they really everything?
I’m not arguing that Tim Dillard will be the second coming of Cy Young. But I do think, based on the current situation (he’s stretched out, recently effective and on full rest, Villanueva is none of those things), he’s the better choice to start a game today.
"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 28, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
He’s the better choice to start a game today.
Is he the better choice to fill DB’s spot for the next 4 weeks? If you think that CV is the better long term guy, then what Macha is doing, is exactly what you have to do. Stretch out CV and have Dillard to back him up while he’s getting into starter shape.
I’m going to oversimplify and say that the reason CV is a major leaguer and Dillard is a minor leaguer is because CV is a better pitcher. I know he’s struggled and that Dillard is pitching well in AAA, but I don’t disagree with what Macha is doing.
by grant76 on Jul 28, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Very good point. Dillard’s results in AAA don’t seem sustainable to me at all. He might be the better choice today given the opposition and his stretched-outedness, but I have little doubt that Villanueva would finish the season with better overall numbers than Dillard, if both were in the rotation for the rest of the season.
by richardhkirkando on Jul 28, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Why not just option Villanueva down to stretch him out?
He has one left
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
seriously?
the parent comment refers to tRA, K’s, BB’s, LD%, and swinging strike percentage.
Dillard is not particularly good in any of them.
We all know you disagree, but you can at least show evidence that you read the comment you’re replying to.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 28, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
Well, actually...yes
Strikeouts do matter…a LOT. Guys who don’t strike guys out have too many balls in play and eventually, they turn into hits and runs. That is why guys like Bill Wegman don’t last long in the majors, or at the very least don’t do well. Once you get down into that 5K/9IP range and less, it is virtually impossible to be effective over the long term.
I think you are making way too much of this. Whether Dillard throws a few innings or Villanueva throws a few innings and then is relieved by the other doesn’t much matter. Villanueva is the better pitcher, so let him go as far as he can.
Heck, maybe the work will help Carlos get straightened out, as he is desperately needed if this team is going to have any hope.
by badgermaniac on Jul 28, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I concur. And one of your roommates next year is an employee of mine.
What are the odds of that?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 28, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I gotta disagree here.
The Brewers have something even better in AAA.
I kid you not. There is a guy down there that has a 2.55 ERA. He’s 7-2. Only 13 walks in 77.2 innings. That’s 1.8 BB/9! And his 48 Ks give him a K/BB ratio of 3.69.
Oh yeah, he has a complete game shutout already this year. Forget Dillard call up Mike Burns!
by grant76 on Jul 28, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
The Devil
The only reason that is buy able from KM is
“The devil we know is better than the devil we don’t”
We know what we will get from CV. We don’t know what kind of Major League performance we will get from TD.
I don’t like the excuse, but….
by Saberilliterate on Jul 28, 2009 12:38 PM CDT reply actions
I wonder what CV would write on his CV
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
For the record, my 2010 RTTS in MLB08: The Show has Turnbow as the #4 starter for the Brewers.
by Mykenk on Jul 28, 2009 12:45 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
satire
The best satire has a bit of truth. I assume this is actually what happened.
“As you know, we need a starting pitcher for tomorrow night’s contest and I’ve decided to wait until the last minute to announce one”
Hehehe
And really, there are no above replacement level options
Lindsay Gulin? Chase Wright? Nick Green? Chris Cody?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
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