Manny Parra Should Return
by Jordan M on Jul 4, 2009 3:30 PM CDT
16 comments
It's by no means an obvious decision or an easy one, but in my opinion, it's the right one.
Parra's line last night was 7 IP, 2 hits, 7 strikeouts, and 2 walks. He has made four starts at AAA, and this is the first one that could really be considered a really nice outing. If you're operating from the viewpoint that Parra needs to "earn his way back" into the starting rotation, then I could understand wanting to let him make a few more starts to make sure he's going to be a good major league pitcher.
That's not the viewpoint I'm seeing it from, and I don't think Parra should really have to prove his way back, especially when the alternatives look bad even to the bad Manny we had earlier this year. If Manny comes back and pitches the same way he did in the bigs earlier this year, he should be expected to put up something between a 4.75 and 5.25 ERA. And that's pretty much the worst end of the range we could expect from him. Given everything we know right now about pitching, even if he continues to walk 5.71 batters per 9 innings and continues his pace of strikeouts, homers allowed, and suppression of hard batted balls, we can expect something around or even lower than a 5 ERA.
That's assuming nothing changes. Maybe he's been working on something mechanically and it clicked last night. Maybe he's just getting comfortable again. I have no idea, and that's the upside of Parra right now. If he did find that control again, we're back in business with a 2008-type Manny that put up a 4.19 FIP.
If there were 5 starters on the major league team right now that I could project to put up an ERA better than about 5 or 5.25, I'd be all for letting Parra try to figure it out and make a couple of good starts at AAA. That would maybe raise the likelihood of him getting his control back and reaching that upside. But it's just not practical for the Brewers at this point. Would you rather bank on Seth McClung, who has walked nearly as many (5 to 5.7 for Parra) and struck out fewer batters, and whose fielding-independent statistics suggest a mid-5 ERA? (Side note: in 2 starts, McClung's tRA is 9.8. Yikes.) I'm OK with giving Mike Burns a couple more starts, but I wouldn't project him to be better than Parra the rest of the way. And once we get into our stash of AAA starters with awful peripherals, I'd take Parra over Chase Wright or Tim Dillard every time.
The Brewers are in a pretty bad starting pitching situation right now. Despite working their way to a pretty good record so far, this is not a good rotation, in fact, there's only one pitcher in it that is even above average this year. The bullpen is good and the offense is good. But while Doug Melvin continues to lament the lack of available starting pitching, it would maybe be a good idea to stop punting games with replacement level or below starters when a alternative with a track record of success and an upside of a #2 pitcher is available. I don't have access to the information the Brewers do, obviously-- maybe there's a behind the scenes reason that it makes sense to leave Parra in AAA. Using the information I have access to, though, I would like to see the next start that Parra makes be in a Brewers uniform, not a Sounds one.
0 recs |
16 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
It's a good argument.
The problem is the information we aren’t privy too. I don’t want to sound like the much-derided Big Al, but there is the issue of Parra’s mental state right now. A start or two ago, Bosio’s report to Melvin was that Parra lost focus and melted down when he didn’t get the defensive support he expected. From a win now perspective, Parra’s as good or better and has more upside than any of the alternatives, and thus calling him back and plugging him in makes sense. That’s probably what they’ll do. But I’m concerned about what’s happening in Parra’s head and a series of melt downs at the big league level will make it less likely that Parra will ever fufill his potential.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 4, 2009 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree
The other thing is that minor league success is not always tied to numbers. There is a lot that goes on developmentally in minor league ball that does not show up in box scores or pitch f/x analyses.
by backtocali on Jul 4, 2009 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could just make him wear #43 again.
Maybe that would help.
:) + Suppan = :'(
by NoahJ on Jul 4, 2009 6:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
absolutely not
Manny has to prove a lot more than one good AAA outing to earn his way back into the rotation. I agree McClung and Burns are questionable 4-5 starters, but Manny Parra is not the answer. Clearly, we need to improve our rotation from outside the organization. Trade for Doug Davis, overpay Pedro for 4 months, acquire one more legitimate end-of-the-rotation starter if possible and hope for the best.
"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost
by SunglassesAtNight on Jul 5, 2009 5:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So where would you project Parra's talent ERA to be, and where would you project McClung's?
Remember there are two spots to fill in the rotation right now. Even if they trade for Davis right now, they’d need two more starts out of a #5.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Jul 5, 2009 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't about "proving" anything...
…it is about who gives you the best chance moving forward. We are in a brutally tight pennant race with at least 3 other teams. Every game is going to matter. Barring something drastic like blatant subversion behind the scenes or the like, Parra is one of their best 5 starters.
by badgermaniac on Jul 5, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm slightly confused by the entire argument...
I was always under the impression that a talent projection doesn’t just consist of a mean projection, but at least implicitly of a confidence interval as well – and isn’t that the real problem with Parra, that it’s not clear at all just how trustworthy that current mean projection is?
So yeah, the mean projection might be a low 5 FIP, but as long as nobody is anywhere close to being sure what the hell is/was wrong with him (and no, I don’t buy the “it’s all bad luck” explanation"…DIPS isn’t that infallible on the individual level, and to me Parra sure looked like a pitcher serving up particularly hittable strikes while compensating for his control issues), I can’t fault the team for asking Parra to put up some sustained AAA success, before calling him back up prematurely and watch him fall on his face with another 10+ ERA stint like his last five Brewers appearances.
by Zeyes on Jul 5, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I guess as bad as McClung has been in two starts
It seemed like he was doing exactly what you described Parra doing right there- hittable strikes.
Parra sucked and was unlucky, is what I’m trying to say. If he continues to suck, at about a 5ish ERA, I still think he’s a better option than Clung in the rotation. There’s a chance he puts up a 7.50 ERA with the same skills, just like there’s a chance he puts up a 3 ERA. Maybe he’s more volatile than another pitcher.
The best I can do is estimate his talent level. With his peripherals this year, I’d say it has been around 5 or 5.50.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Jul 5, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So McClung gets the "can't get it done" sentence from you on the basis of two starts...
but Parra’s annus horribilis is essentially negated by the fact that he’s got a decent track record from prior years? I think you’re awfully quick to discount the possibility that something might actually be wrong with him this year. Seems to me, in order to end up with an evaluation like “pitching somebody other than Parra may significantly hurt the Brewers’ chances” (paraphrased from below) you have to have an especially optimistic view of Parra and an especially pessimistic view of the available alternatives.
After all, we’re talking about one more time that slot comes up before the All-star break. What could possibly be the effect of pitching McClung instead of Parra here, based on mean projections – Brewers probability of winning drops from 40% to 35%? To 30%? That’s hardly what I would call significant, especially if the alternative is interrupting Parra’s confidence rebuilding that he may in fact be sorely needing right now.
by Zeyes on Jul 5, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Is he out of options if we bring him back up?
If that’s the case, there’s no reason to rush it. I say we give him one more start to boost his confidence in his stuff, and our confidence in him before we bring him back.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jul 5, 2009 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s an option year, so the option has been burned. You can bring him up and down as much as you want. I’d sure like to do what you suggest, but what if not bringing him back significantly hurts the Brewers’ chances of winning those two games? We’re in a pennant race here, and I don’t think holding out is a luxury we can afford.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Jul 5, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Long Run vs. Short Run
If we bring him back too soon, and his confidence is not totally there, it could hurt us a lot more than 2 games. I’d much rather risk losing two games to make sure Parra will be good for the rest of the season.
At the same time, though, Son of Clung isn’t getting the job done. That’s what makes this such a tough decision. Anyone notice McClung drinking a red bull yesterday?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Jul 5, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think McClung's struggles...
… really tie back to the fact that he’s outraged by the fact that he’s been referred to as Irish when he’s really Scottish.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 5, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Parra speaks
Audio link to Parra’s pre-game interview for Nashville, in which he talks about his pitching game plan (h/t Brewerfan).
It was a great selection of awesome.
by battlekow on Jul 5, 2009 12:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
nice interview, it sounds like he had a good plan and that he was able to execute it
I also have to chuckle at him getting a $10 gift certificate to some Sports Bar & Grille for going on the show.
by warwick5s on Jul 5, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 10:31 AM CST)
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
