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Former champion Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez will represent the National League in the All-Star home run derby next week.

4 months ago Newavatar_tiny KLSnow 27 comments 0 recs  | 

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Prince will win it!

Book it… those moon shots will be fun fun fun to watch

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jul 6, 2009 6:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Cool

but remind me to watch it on mute so I don’t have to listen to that walrus Berman reference Prince songs all night.

Coffey is surprisingly fast, as is the Polish Sausage

by molitorfan on Jul 6, 2009 6:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's purple raining home runs!

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 6, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

if we made this a drinking game

someone might die that night!

Coffey is surprisingly fast, as is the Polish Sausage

by molitorfan on Jul 6, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

BackBackBackBackBackBack

Gone! The artist formerly known as Fielder hits another!

Remember when Berman was cool?…….

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 6, 2009 6:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

D Lee

stays hot with another HR.

Coffey is surprisingly fast, as is the Polish Sausage

by molitorfan on Jul 6, 2009 6:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

4 First Basemen

That has probably never happened before.

by grant76 on Jul 6, 2009 7:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not liking this at all

Prince is hitting for average as much as he is power. Being successful in the HR Derby will destroy his swing for the rest of the season

by Saberilliterate on Jul 6, 2009 8:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Really?

He wasn’t messed up in 2007 and actually hit better in the 2nd half. You always hear about how the HR Derby messes with players but how often does it actually happen?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 6, 2009 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know Abreu thought it did

I remember seeing a study around this time last year, but I can’t find it.

It was a great selection of awesome.

by battlekow on Jul 6, 2009 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One time?

Color me unconvinced. I bet it’s just as likely any drop in stats results from being worn down in August and September.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 6, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was intended to be somewhat tongue in cheek...

… though he said he thought it hurt him and I’m inclined to believe him.

And once if every time, for him. :)

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 6, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy the "HR Derby screws with my swing" thing.

What’s BP then? It’s more likely some players (not Fielder) lucking their way into a good first half then realizing that they’re not really that good.

by kentcheesehead on Jul 6, 2009 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right

In order to make the All-Star Team, you have to be having a very good year. I wonder how many of those players are overperforming their projections/abilities, and regress in the second half.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here are the top two finishers from the last few years

2008
Justin Morneau
OPS dropped 70 points, slugging dropped 31 points, HR/PA dropped from 29 to 33
Josh Hamilton
OPS dropped 45 points Slugging dropped 54 points, HR/PA dropped from 20 to 25

2007
Vlad Guerrero
OPS dropped 27 points, slugging went up a point and HR/PA went up 26 to 22
Alex Rios
OPS dropped 39 points, slugging dropped 49 points, and HR/PA dropped 22 to 46
Fielder
OPS went up 38 points, slugging went down 6 points and HR/PA dropped from 13 to 14.5

2006
Ryan Howard
OPS went up 336 points, slugging went up 170 points and HR/PA went up from 12.5 to 11.7
(Ryan got a lot more walks in the second half (77 to 31), otherwise only had 15 more total bases compared to first half with the same number of PAs)
David Wright
OPS dropped 120 points, slugging dropped 106 points, and HR/PA dropped from 19 to 46

2005
Bobby Abreu
OPS dropped 168 points, slugging dropped 115 points and HR/PA dropped from 22 to 53
Pudge Rodriguez
OPS dropped 64 points, slugging dropped 29 points and HR/PA went up 51 to 27
(The HR/PA is deceiving… pudge only hit 14 HR all year. This was the year that the all star game went international with players in the HR Derby representing their countries)
Carlos Lee
OPS dropped 107 points, slugging dropped 91 points and HR/PA dropped from 15 to 28

2004
Miguel Tejada
OPS went up 66 points, slugging went up 60 points and HR/PA went up 23 to 17
Lance Berkman
OPS went up 16 points, slugging went up 19 points and HR/PA went up (slightly) 22.8 to 23

And because Albert Pujos is a stud and the best player in baseball I will add his appearances

2003
OPS dropped 37 points, slugging dropped 56 points and HR/PA dropped from 14.7 to 15.2
2007
OPS went up 154 points, slugging went up 115 points and HR/PA went up from 23 to 19

Miguel Tejada in 2004, Albert Pujos in 2007 and Ryan Howard in 2006 (his MVP year) had significantly better second halves after their participation in the Derby.

Fielder in 2007 and Berkman in 2004 improved slightly.

9 of the 14 participants listed here had noticeably worse second halves.

What this doesn’t tell us – a lot

I have no idea what the league average drop is from the first half to the second half (sorry couldn’t find league wide splits in ESPiN, Baseball reference or Yahoo). Without knowing if these performance drops are ‘normal’ when compared to the league you can’t draw any real conclusions. But I didn’t want to do any real work this morning so I thought that I would do this.

I still would rather not have Prince in the Derby. I can’t say with proof that it will hurt his swing or second half performance. What I can say for certainty is that it won’t help his swing and he is the one Brewer who hasn’t had a day off and a day of rest would be nice.

by Saberilliterate on Jul 7, 2009 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I have no idea what the league average drop is from the first half to the second half (sorry couldn’t find league wide splits in ESPiN, Baseball reference or Yahoo). Without knowing if these performance drops are ‘normal’ when compared to the league you can’t draw any real conclusions.

I wouldn’t bother comparing it to the league. I would just compare it to other all stars. I have a feeling a good deal of the drop offs have to do with player regressing to their personal norms because they outperformed their abilities in the firsrt half.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's okay...

Might give Prince another reason to untuck his shirt in St. Louis after a win……

by cwatts78 on Jul 6, 2009 9:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

haha

how cool would that be. I don’t think he has the stamina that Pujols has to win it, but still, he could put up some nice first round numbers

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

THAT would be cool.

by Saberilliterate on Jul 7, 2009 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who else wants to see Branyan?

Talk about moon shots. That guy can hit a baseball. 21 HR tied for 2nd in the AL. Too bad he didn’t make it to the All-Star Game. :-\

by ecocd on Jul 7, 2009 9:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Branyan cannot participate in the home run derby

Safety risk for the ticket-holders in right field. They also may not be able to manufacture enough baseballs.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Jul 7, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You mean the right field parking lot, right?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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