The All Star Break and Rotational Alignment

by Kyle Lobner on Jul 7, 2009 3:04 PM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

I think we could all use a break from the Braun/Melvin drama, right? So let's talk about something else for a bit between now and tonight's game.

While Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder fly to St. Louis to be a part of next week's All Star festivities, the Brewer pitching staff, having had none of its members selected for the game, will get some much-needed rest and an opportunity to recuperate for the second half. But how should they use it?

We know this with some level of certainty: Unless the Brewers acquire a pitcher in the next few days, the rotation between now and the All Star Break looks something like this:

Tonight: Yovani Gallardo
Tomorrow: Jeff Suppan
Thursday: Braden Looper
Friday: Mike Burns (assuming he gets another shot)
Saturday: Option #5 (Could be Manny Parra or a spot starter, or Seth McClung) (see UPDATE)
Sunday: Gallardo

UPDATE: As noted in the comments, Manny Parra appears to be getting the call.

Now, we can assume Doug Melvin is glued to the phone looking for opportunities to upgrade the staff and make this entire discussion moot. But, assuming he doesn't get a pitcher between now and the Thursday, July 16th second half opener in Cincinnati, the Brewers will need to fill out a post All Star Break rotation with the arms they have. There are two ways they could do that. Here's the first one:

Thursday, July 16: Suppan (seven days rest) or Looper (six days rest)
Friday, July 17: Gallardo (normal rest)
Saturday, July 18: Suppan (nine days rest) or Looper (eight days rest)
Sunday, July 19: Parra, or whoever #5 turns out to be (five days rest)

And, if Dave Bush doesn't have any setbacks in rehab, he projects to be ready to return on the 20th. The nice thing about this setup is it maximizes the team's opportunity to use Yovani Gallardo. While everyone else would get extra rest, Gallardo would continue pitching every fifth day, and would actually pitch two of the Brewers' three games at one point.

With that said, the Brewers are riding Gallardo awfully hard this season. As things stand right now, he's on pace to pitch about 210 innings in 2009, and at 107.8 pitches per start, he's throwing more pitches than all but three pitchers in all of baseball. With the All Star Break, the Brewers have the opportunity to get him and everyone else some extra rest. Here's one rotation alignment that would do it:

Thursday, July 16: Suppan (seven days rest)
Friday, July 17: Looper (seven days rest)
Saturday, July 18: Parra (six days rest)
Sunday, July 19: Gallardo (six days rest)
Monday, July 20: Bush (if healthy) or Burns

If Bush won't be ready to go until the 20th, Gallardo would have to pitch in one of the games before that, or Mike Burns would have to make one more fill in start. If Bush has a setback, Burns could take Parra's start on the 18th on seven days rest and push everyone else back one more day.

So what do you think?

Poll

If I ran the Brewers, I would:

Pitch Gallardo on normal rest on Friday, July 17 to give the team the best chance of winning now.

103 votes

Use the break to get Gallardo some extra rest and pitch him later.

154 votes

257 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Wow

I did not expect so many people to be agreeing with me in the poll.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 3:17 PM CDT reply actions

While everyone else would get extra rest, Gallardo would continue pitching every fifth day, and would actually pitch two of the Brewers’ three games at one point.

I don’t get it.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions

Are you saying he would pitch sunday against the dodgers

and then he would pitch two games later?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

That's what I meant, yes.

With the off days for the break, Gallardo would pitch in two out of three games.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Jul 7, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Shows he's not a true ace yet

A real ace would pitch back to back games.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 7, 2009 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Turns out Parra's coming back up for a start before the AS break

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/07/parra_appears_headed_back_to_m.html

by zwief005 on Jul 7, 2009 3:27 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks for the heads up

I Fanshotted it to the front page and will update this post.

"The reports are that he is getting better. The definition of better is nebulous."

by Kyle Lobner on Jul 7, 2009 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Let's just hope it's for Wednesday's game

Because I’m going to the game on Saturday and would prefer not seeing Parra get blown apart again

by zwief005 on Jul 7, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

I'll be at tomorrow's game

But I’m gonna be an inning or two late, so I won’t be able to give him a big, ‘Welcome Back Standing O’ if he pitches tomorrow.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions

If you arrive at the second inning

you’ll arrive just in time for McClung to jog onto the mound :)

by zwief005 on Jul 7, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

I kind of believe that Parra's struggles are related to his pitching 220 innings or whatever

so lets please rest gallardo for the postseason, ok???

captainbok: What do you like the most about milwaukee

Jeff Suppan: Captain Bok, that is a great question. Does "Bok" mean Book of Knowledge? My favorite thing about Milwaukee are the Brewers.

by JAMOOL on Jul 7, 2009 3:52 PM CDT reply actions

Workload

I wonder what the effects of Gallardo’s workload will be. Since his first full season he had an increase of 28% in IP from 05 to 06 and then 21% increase from 06 to 07. The injury last year did lost of good resting his arm, but if he did pitch 210 innings, that would be an increas from 07 of 12%.

I dont know a lot about PAP or the effects of big workloads, but it will be interesting to see how those big 20% increases he had early on affects him in the long run.

by backtocali on Jul 7, 2009 3:58 PM CDT reply actions

What about the increase from 08...

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Hes already doubled that

But of course that was a non-arm injury that caused the decrease in innings. from 07 to 08. Im just saying I wonder if there is any effect on workload increase when you have a season like G did last year and then ramp the innings up your next year back.

by backtocali on Jul 7, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions

I just feel like the decrease in workload last year

would skew any information we get from the 07-09 increase

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, ""That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Jul 7, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions

He pitched in the Southern League playoffs in 2006

Making 05 to 06 a 37% increase but 06 to 07 only a 13% increase.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 7, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions

This decision is doubtful to have any affect on the regular season

If you go through the rest of the schedule, projecting Gallardo to pitch every 5 games, he isn’t going to get an extra start in by scheduling him earlier coming out of the AS break. The only difference is that he would either pitch the opening game of the final series of the year against St Louis, or the final game of the year. BUT if he is starting the opening game of that series, he would likely be ready to start the opening game of the playoffs (assuming they qualify). So to me, this decision is based on whether we are going to plan ahead to October, assume the Brewers make the playoffs, and how bad you want Gallardo to pitch game 1, and possibly game 5, of that potential NLDS.

by mls4 on Jul 7, 2009 5:43 PM CDT reply actions

There are very few managers

who use/abuse starters the way that Macha does. In his last start, Gallardo came in to pitch a new inning even though he already had over 100 pitches under his belt.

It isn’t that Macha is unaware of pitch counts or of how other teams limit their pitchers. He just doesn’t take that stuff all that seriously. For Macha, 115 is the new 100. Maybe he’s right about that, maybe not. But it’s a big risk to take, and I hate seeing him take it. I’m all for giving Gallardo the extra rest.

by DukeMarkell on Jul 7, 2009 6:06 PM CDT reply actions

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